The Eurasia War - Wizard's Chess

 "We have nowhere left to retreat" - Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. These words were meant for the Russian people, and not as a plea to the rest of the world. Putin is invoking the patriotic spirit of Russians, and framing the coming war as an act of self-defence (which it might be) so that he has those same people behind him for the big move. The move he has dreamed of since he witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union. This is not just about Donetsk or Lugansk Republics, or even Ukraine. This is about recreating the Russia of old. 

Putin has named several factors as strategic imperatives for Russia. A key one is having NATO nations on his borders. He points to Ukraine as a possible NATO member, but there are three countries on his eastern flank, within hours of Moscow, that are NATO members already: Estonia (population 1.3 million); Latvia (population 1.9 million); and Lithuania (population 2.7 million). Collectively known as the Baltic States, they give NATO a staging ground in behind Russia's western border, and are therefore problematic for Moscow. Those countries have, respectively, the following NATO troops stationed in them: 800; 1200; and 1200. Currently they represent an irritant at most, but their potential to become much more for NATO is the danger for Russia.

Most analysts are looking at Russia's position as solely focused on Ukraine, but this would be a foolish miscalculation. Firstly, Russia needs to send a very strong message to countries like Finland, Sweden, Georgia and others that it is prepared to destroy countries that imperil its strategic stability. A minor shuffle into eastern Ukraine would have no such affect, and might in fact do the opposite. Russia knows, like anyone knows, that if there is going to be a big cost then you might as well go for the gusto. The "gusto" in this case is not just eastern Ukraine, not just Ukraine, but the Baltic states and likely Moldova - or at least parts of it. The following map shows that such a move gives Russia the smallest western border to defend amongst all the options. (blue line)

Essentially the new western border of Russia will extend from Kaliningrad in the north to the Pro-Russian Transnistria in the south. It will reduce the number of countries accessing the Black Sea to Russia, Turkey, Romania and Hungary. Romania and Hungary are NATO countries, but now they will have Russian divisions stationed at their border, and they do remember when they were occupied, so their inclination to poke the bear will likely be zero. That leaves Turkey, also a NATO member, but a member whose western based economy is in freefall and whose currency is devaluating on a daily basis - leaving it vulnerable to China and Russia. 

Russia has also been moving large forces from the far east, near China, to their western border. Those troops have not yet arrived. This indicates that Russia intends on taking very serious military action, decisive military action, and it also indicates Russia is very comfortable leaving China with a less guarded border. 

That brings us to Eurasia. Russia and China have been planning a separate economic system from the West for decades. They have been stockpiling gold as their system will be a gold-backed trade/currency system. They have signed strategic economic and arms agreements. They are in a sense creating anew world order that intends to completely sideline the West economically, and if necessary militarily. The United States has fed this ambition by sanctioning Russia to the point where Russia, and importantly its citizens, have gotten used to being apart from Western goods and services. It is, therefore, almost amusing that the United States is threating Russia with expulsion from the SWIFT economic settlement system. Intentionally, or unintentionally, the US is playing right into Russia hands, and therefore China's. The West's reaction to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Moldova will be the moment both China and Russia have been waiting for to initiate their Eurasian project, and they can say they had no choice, because the US threw them out of SWIFT. Things to come.

In the mean time look for a one fell swoop Russian assault, due to an Ukrainian assault in the Donbass, likely during the Beijing Olympics. Ukraine has been banging the pot internationally that Russia has 100,000 troops near its border, but what Ukraine has been reticent to say is that half the Ukrainian military is now on the the borders of the Donbass region. The danger for Ukraine is that half its army is in very real danger of being enveloped by Russian forces almost as soon as hostilities start. The following map shows the general area that one half of Ukraine's troops are concentrated in (blue circle), and the likely approaches of Russian, and possibly Belorussian troops. It's quite easy to see how quickly they will be isolated, or as the Russians like to call it: "a caldron". A second flanking will be to isolate Kiev from the West and place the entire country in a free fall within days of an invasion. 

 It should not be forgotten that Russia stated, just months ago, that a Ukrainian military intervention in the Donbass would be the end of Ukraine as a state.

We should find out if this is the big Eurasian move or not within the next month or so, but all signs point to it. Keep in mind that both China, Russia, and even North Korea are ahead of the West in developing strategically decisive hyper-sonic missiles. Russia and China have also now had the time to modernize their militaries. In a sense they are ready to go, and their hypersonic advantage may be short lived. It will be in that calculus that the fate of the world as we know it will rest. 

  

War in Ukraine 2.0

 War is coming back to Ukraine, and potentially surrounding countries as well. Back in 2014, when it was quite obvious the Western powers initiated a civil war in Ukraine, during the Olympics, to topple a President who backed off joining the EU, Russia responded by seizing Crimea and aiding separatist forces in the Lugansk and Donetsk republics in Ukraine. It was a tit - for - tat power grab by the Russians, but key to this was that it was a response to the initiation by the Americans of an "in your face" alteration to the balance of power in the region. 

The Russians claim that, in 1991, when they dismantled the Soviet Union, the United States had given their word that NATO would not expand eastward. Whether that is true or not, and the Russians never got in writing for whatever reason, the truth is that over the next thirty years NATO has expanded eastward to the point that NATO forces are right on the border of Russia itself. Historically Russia has never allowed an enemy to be on its borders without going to war over it. Now Russia finds itself having three small Baltic States as NATO members, and possible jumping off points for an invasion of Russia, or at the very least bases for offensive weapons systems. The distance from the southern border of Latvia to Moscow is just under 600 kilometers, and from Estonia a mere 140 kilometers to Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg. It's an intolerable strategic situation for any world power - the Americans would be no different (Cuba crisis).

Apart from its northwestern flank, Russia has a buffer state, which is in talks to become a part of Russia, which somewhat insulates its central flank. Even there, Ukraine-like movements had been attempting to overthrow the Belorussian President with similar motivations and alliances. In fact, it would likely have been successful if Russia had not learned from the Ukrainian lesson, and this time immediately intervened overtly and covertly to stop it. The southern flank, which has been the most pressing, is the most potentially explosive of all. 

The Ukrainian government has taken what can best be described as a "bull in the china shop" strategy in dealing with Russia. Despite being warned by Russia that any Ukrainian attempt to retake Donetsk and Lugansk Republics by force would see the end of Ukraine as a national entity, and despite knowing that Russian missiles and electronic warfare would destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure in less than an hour, the Ukrainian government continues to pursue a policy of bluff and hysteria. The goal of the Ukrainian government is to trap the Western powers in a war with Russia, much like the approach taken by Winston Churchill to involve the Americans in World War Two. To this point in time the Americans are using Ukraine as a stick to beat the Russians with, but that is all. As US President Biden said: "no American troops to Ukraine" in case of war. 

From Russia's perspective, all things centre around Crimea - the unsinkable aircraft carrier that protects their southern flank with Europe. While the Russians have built a massive bridge from the mainland to Crimea, an exposed position if there ever was one, they have struggled to supply it with the most important commodity of all - water. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian government built a dam over the only water supply route to Crimea, which could be considered a crime against humanity as it primarily targeted the civilian population there. As a result, the massive drainage conduit to Crimea has gone dry, and become overgrown with all types of vegetation. The picture below shows the dam and the clogging of the drainage conduit.

 

Sooner or later, and it now appears sooner than later, Russia will have to act militarily to secure this water supply to Crimea. It cannot have a core strategic interest so exposed. From its perspective there can be no choice. 

Ukraine meanwhile, having had years to rebuild its military, has amassed half of its military, compromising all its battle ready units on the battle lines around Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The obvious message Ukrainian message is a final battle for the Republics is coming. Many media outlets have been floating dates for such an outbreak in hostilities to happen as late January or February of 2022. Western media  outlets have suggested that is the time frame Russia will invade Ukraine, but it could just as easily be the dates Ukraine intends to send its military in, which would cause a Russian reaction. The irony of the dates put forward shut not be lost on anyone. The winter Olympics in China begin in February of 2022. The revolution in Ukraine began during the winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. The timing is likely not a coincidence. The West has refused to send any diplomatic members to the games in China, and an invasion by Ukraine, and the response by Russia allows the West to ruin China's games and place the blame on a Russia to a distracted public.

Against this backdrop we have serious moves happening in Eurasia. Russian President Putin was just in India, arm in arm with its President who declared that India had no closer friend than Russia. Just days later the Chief of Staff of the Indian military died when his helicopter crashed in India. Russia and China also just concluded a major defence alliance.  Now Russia has sent a "proposal" to NATO which would roll back strategic advantages for NATO in former Warsaw Pact members countries, including the stationing of missiles and troops therein, and ban others from joining NATO. Apparently the proposal is signed by the Russian side with blank spots for NATO to sign. In other words, it's not a proposal, but rather an ultimatum. The question remains: what are the consequences of not agreeing to the Russian ultimatum. 

They could be something as simple as a demonstration of Russia's military power, like knocking Ukraine out of existence in short order. It could also be something much bigger. It could be that Russia's hypersonic missile systems are sufficient to attack western interests and at this point the West is unable to respond to that. Most estimates put American development of hypersonic missiles well behind both the Russians and the Chinese. As the word hypersonic implies, there is no time to defend. For Russia to be making the ultimatum to NATO that it has, it must have the ability to strike with impunity. That could include all of NATO's GPS satellites, without which NATO would be finished. It could include many things. It must also have the backing of China, who literally covers Russia's rear. It must also have at least the neutrality of India. Given Russia has made the move, it's a safe bet that all those factors have been satisfied.

The only thing left to do is wait. Will Ukraine be the willing sacrifice to start a new cold or hot war? Will Russia, China and others, having been sanctioned by the West, start their new gold based system of commerce - abandoning or being thrown out of the SWIFT system for international payments? Will China have the excuse it needs to take back Taiwan? The game of chicken is about to come to its logical end, and we can but watch.  

  

How to Fix the Edmonton Oilers

 Okay, so the topic of hockey is not the norm for this blog - I get it. There will be a number of blogs coming very shortly on the usual political issues, but after watching my favorite team foe the last, few, painful months, something needs to said.

It's not that the Edmonton Oilers are a team without talent. The Oilers have talent. They even have an excellent backup defence corps that are doing the job wonderfully. That is especially comforting given the Oiler's regular defence corps has been worse than the backups. Take Barrie for example. He should be the reincarnation of Paul Coffey with his speed and offensive capabilities, but since signing his big contract he has looked like a deer in the headlights on the ice. His play in his own end has been, well, bordering on embarrassing. I had great hopes for Duncan Keith as well, but he has played panicky, "please don't hit me " hockey", and it's obvious. Sad really. There is a real short term and long term problem here for the Oilers, but defence was not exactly the strong suit of the Oilers of old, when they won all those cups. 

The Oilers were, at the beginning of the season, worried about their goaltending. Smith was good in 2020, but was it a fluke?  Koskinen was atrocious in 2020, and it could only get worse. Skinner was an up and coming prospect with no NHL experience - how would he fair? Turns out that Smith was injured a few games into the season, and Koskinen took over - much to the horror of Oiler fans. Yet, Koskinen played most of the games since, and has played well in relief. Then there is the rookie Skinner. He has played well at home, where he is confident before the home town fans, and average at best on the road. Yet, goaltending isn't the Oilers' problem either. 

The Oilers problem is their offence. There are two main problems with the Oilers' offence:

1.    The offensive players are not being utilized intelligently; and

2.    The players are not producing intelligent energy.

Perhaps the two are related. Or perhaps the proper use of the players is exasperating ego issues below the surface. The bottom line is that the Oilers' coach is not putting his lines together properly. He is trying desperately, juggling them like balls in several games, desperately seeking energy, momentum, and cohesion. Yet there is none. The answer is not as much what Edmonton's lines have, but what they don't. For example, the use of McDavid, without Nugent-Hopkins on the same line means all any team has to do is shut down McDavid and there are no other playmakers to take his place. This is what has been happening. McDavid ends up trying to do it all himself, fails, and then loses it. In other words, there is no playmaker with McDavid to free him up as either a shooter or a play maker. That means Edmonton's offence becomes painfully predictable. McDavid needs to be teamed with a playmaker, and that person is Nugent Hopkins. 

Similarly, Nugent-Hopkins is being wasted as a playmaker on a line of power forwards or grunts. He is an artist with the puck, but his line mates aren't that fancy or finishing. As a result, over 50% of his points have come on the powerplay, but his contribution at full strength has been emasculated. The same goes for Draisaitl. He is a finisher more than he is a playmaker. He can pass, but not as well as either Nugent-Hopkins or McDavid. The three of them on one line means teams cannot predictably isolate one man to take down the whole team. It means flexibility and the option for surprise. It makes sense.

The second line needs to be centred Hyman. Hyman is captain material in his own right. His spirit, talent and commitment is evident throughout the game. He is a leader. If he can't be the leader of the team, well, then he needs to the leader of his own line. A power forward, gut crashing, net smashing, line to throw a whole new look at the opponents every other shift. On either side of him put Scevior and Puljujary (the Happy Warrior). This is line full of absolute drive, and loving it. This is a line that can score and destroy, and do so shift after shift if they wish. This is a line of spirit which they can share amongst themselves. They can show the other lines what commitment is.

The third line needs to centred around young McLeod. He is a star rising, of that there should be no question, but he needs time to find all that he is. His own line, further down the rotation, gives him that confidence of place, and ability to improve without the main spot light that can shatter confidence. He can move and he can score. On either side of him place Yamamoto and Foegele. This is a line built on skill and speed competing against other's third lines not so endowed. Foegele might be a power forward, but he has excellent speed, determination and can score. Yamamoto has speed, and can score, but he should be trade bait as his size makes him an easy smear on the boards. He fights through, but it is clear that he is too small to be a difference. When he goes Turris could take his place - even before he goes. Turris has played inspired hockey this year, yet he finds himself scratched quite often. This isn't fair. He has tremendous speed and can score. He has good drive and desire. He should be playing every night on this line. 

The fourth line should be centered on Ryan. He is a wily veteran, and good on the face off. He is also a relentless fore checker, and determined fighter in the corners. Benson and Kassian should be his wingers. If the fourth line is a checking line, then these three can get it done. Both Kassian and Benson can score, but they can also check harshly, especially Kassian - if he wants to. 

That's the four lines. They need to each be given a name, aka "the French connection" or whatever like it, and they must stay together to develop their esprit de corps. Swapping players around like proverbial widgets kills all these things that are essential to developing a "TEAM", which they currently are not. Their record is only impressive if you have not witnessed each and every game. Their special teams, ie line one above, have won them almost every game. They have started each game as if they just left their stock brokers office, and the last thing on their mind is hockey. This team needs serious discipline, but before that can happen intelligent effort is required by the coach. Change the lines, then enforce the discipline of the team vision. Don't play down to your competition, but make them rise to you level - every night. This team has the talent, if it can get out of the way of its egos and entitlements.    

Puljujarvi

DraisaitlSceviour

Don't Fire Erin O'Toole

 

Dear Conservative Party, please don't fire Erin O'Toole as your leader. 

Truth is, the election did not go as well as possible for the Conservatives, but it didn't go well for the Liberals, NDP or Greens. About the only party it went well for was People's Party of Canada - albeit with no seats to show given our outdated first past the post system of electing governments. That's the hard core truth. It was more of a statement to the old guard, the back room boys, the establishment. The message went something like this: "we no longer trust any of you.

If the Conservative Party wants to fire some folks, the very first person that should be fired is the one who told O'Toole to constantly hold his hands in a prayer position during the English language debate. Each time O'Toole brought his hands in this position it was as if he was pleading, or even praying, or simply being patronizing. In my humble opinion, the body language O'Toole used (which no doubt he was trained to use or failed to listen to advice not to use) throughout the debate made him look, well, weak. Wishy-washy. Somewhat disingenuous. This is where the house cleaning needs to start. 

Secondly, the campaign strategists ought to be fired. The failure to secure well-known and popular candidates in the Toronto area was disastrous. No disrespect intended, but people in Toronto and area seem to want candidates of national, or at least provincial prominence. A strong Toronto caucus they are sure would not be swept away for the regional interests of Quebec, the West or even the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals are famous for this recruiting. People like Ken Dryden or even most recently Adam van Koeverden. It's no secret to the rest of the country that Ontario, and especially Toronto, see themselves as the centre of the universe within Canada - they want representative that fulfil their egos accordingly. 

Thirdly, fire the strategists who believe campaigning as Liberals is better than campaigning as Conservatives. When Conservatives campaign as Liberals the electorate vote in the real Liberals every time - even if they are getting wiser and not giving them majorities. Conservative strategists were given the mother load of ammunition to use against Trudeau while still being able to represent their base faithfully. For example, Trudeau's father (the recent Trudeau junior was selected as Liberal leader and PM) helped craft and institutionalize the Charter of Rights and Freedoms which championed the rights of the individual over those of the the majority. It has become a part of who we are. The covid panic has helped throw those rights on the ash heap of history until the Supreme Court of Canada rules on them. What an opportunity the Conservatives had to take the mantle of "Defenders of the Charter". The Liberals, especially the "Trudeau Liberals", would be without their moral high ground. That would then be the Conservatives high ground - for a long time. 

Speaking of the Supreme Court, why did strategists not go after Trudeau in the debate with the following question: " Given the federal government has immediate access to the Supreme Court for constitutional references, why didn't the Liberals request a reference by the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of coerced vaccinations and "vaccine passports" before they endorsed and attacked people for not using them?" In order to gain the high ground you have to trap your enemy in the high questions. It paints them. It stains them. The perception lasts. In politics perception is reality. 

The sad truth for the Conservative Party is it is not thinking and acting like a machine with a purpose. It is not capturing the high ground, or setting the ground for battle, because it seems frozen in fear that it might somehow alienate this group or that. You should not be arrogant about your beliefs, but you can be firm in them - and people respect that more than wishy-washy pandering. People become sickened by this type of "tell them anything" approach, which is why Trudeau has had two consecutive minorities. He lied the first time around about changing the first past-the-post system, amongst other things, and now people view him as wishy-washy too. However, he is cutting big cheques to a lot of groups, as we saw just before the election, and those groups want to see the cash continuing to flow. They aren't with Trudeau on any high ground, and the Conservatives failed to grab any high ground, so there was no need to change the status quo - and they didn't. 

Looking ahead. Firstly, the Conservative Party needs to wrap its arms around Erin O'Toole and his family and give them the love. Rarely, if ever, have I witnessed a leader so genuinely disappointed in an election result as O'Toole displayed in his concession speech. Secondly, the party needs to realize that the Liberals have a lame duck leader now, and that in order to get rid of him the Liberals will have to firstly convince him to resign and hold a leadership race. That can be very destabilizing in a short period like the life of a minority government. It also opens up all kinds of potential negativity - internal or externally injected... Secondly, the Green Party will also be having a divisive leadership race, and to say their leader will go quietly into the night would be politically foolish. The NDP may also have some leadership challenges of their own. The Peoples Party, well, that appears to be completely reliant on Mr. Bernier's leadership. If the Conservative Party can restrain itself from an undisciplined assault on its leader, rally around the flag, and strategically prepare, it will be the party of order in the midst of instability.

Finally, Mr. O'Toole must change some things as well. He must drop the vision of the Conservative party. To say the Conservative Party was no longer the "party of your father" was foolish in the extreme. It was a direct insult to the majority of its base. Whoever gave him that line should be fired immediately, and sent directly to the Liberals. If it was him, well, change it or apply the same to himself. To gauge the damage of this tact simply refer back to the comments made by former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall on election night, wherein he not so subtly let the federal Conservative Party know that leaving traditional conservative values would more likely than not result in the base bolting to a new "Reform Party - like" scenario, and the subsequent death of the federal party - aka 2 seats after Mr. Mulroney's departure. I believe this analysis is spot on, and needs to be deeply understood by those that think they are smarter than every one else within the Party.

Trudeau is Inciting Hatred

Perhaps you were looking forward to the debate last week. Likely you were looking to measure the leaders up against each other during the debate. If you were like me, the one thing you were not expecting is for the Prime Minister of Canada to follow up the debate with vicious public attacks against identifiable groups in Canada. Canadian citizens. Your fellow Canadians. 

Trudeau, in a voice coated in contempt, publicly incited hatred, and potentially violence, against Canadians who oppose his agenda on vaccines, gun control, and abortion. He flippantly referred to the large crowds that haunted him through the campaign as "anti-vaxxer hoards". He has no basis for this characterization. First of all they aren't hoards. They're protesters and they are protesting him. A hoard will have torches and burn him at the stake. Obviously that was not their intent, so his use of the term "hoard" was clearly an attempt to smear these protesters and marginalize their criticisms of him and his government. As though they were somehow beneath him - not an unusual attitude with him. 

Secondly, what is an "anti-vaxxer"? Is that a person who won't get a covid shot, or is that a person who does not believe in any vaccinations? Or does that really matter. You see, in Canada we as citizens have the right to criticize and protest, yeas even in front of hospitals, as long as they are peaceful. That is guaranteed in the Charter his father helped create. Oh, and on that front, his father also helped to create Canada's hate speech laws.

In 1965, then Liberal Prime Minister Pearson, struck a special committee of seven individuals known as the Special Committee on Hate and Propaganda in Canada, commonly called the "Cohen Committee" after its chairman. Pierre Trudeau, then a professor at the University of Montreal, was a member of the committee. In 1966, the Committee filed its report to Parliament, which recommended legislation to combat hate speech. As a result, three new offences were added to the Canadian Criminal Code: advocating genocide; publicly inciting hatred in a way likely to lead to a breach of the peace; and willfully promoting hatred.

Fast forward to 2021, and Pierre Trudeau's son is directing hatred, ridicule and contempt toward Canadians who oppose his policies. He has poisoned the water much deeper than it was prior to his words. He is fanning the flames of hatred in a way that would make his father spin in his grave. Trudeau has resorted to the gutter of American divisionism. He is targeting Canadians for their beliefs and willfully inciting citizens against other citizens. Does the criminal code cover this kind of incitement to hatred? I'm not a lawyer, so I don't know. However, what we can be sure of is Trudeau's vicious marginalization of a section of our Canadian population will result in a deep, dark, and permanent stain - not just on him, but the true value of Canada in general.

After all, we cannot smugly sit on the sidelines anymore and thank God we are not in a country like the one below us, while our Prime Minister does the exact same practices that Donald Trump and Joe Biden (and their minions) did. Trudeau has thrown nitro on the fire for the sake of his pitiful self, and his agenda. In my 56 years of life as a Canadian, and observer of politics here for some 24 years, I can honestly say, with the exception of some local yocal halfwits in Newfoundland, that I have never witnessed such acts of hatred and deceit by a Canadian Prime Minister - or any Canadian politician for that matter. 

No matter the result of this election, this incitement of hatred must cease immediately, and Mr. Trudeau must atone for his actions with the loss of his job. I am a Conservative, and as such I'm obviously pulling for Erin O'Toole, and therefore could be considered bias on the topic. However, I am not. There is a blog here that calls out Mr. O'Toole for sounding too much like Donald Trump during his battle for the Conservative Party leadership. Thankfully he moderated that tone after his victory. The bottom-line is that yesterday Erin O'Toole attacked Justin Trudeau personally, which he intended to reflect on Trudeau's governance. He did not attack Canadians. He attacked Trudeau. Trudeau didn't attack O'Toole. Trudeau attacked Canadians who disagree with him. 

Whether you believe Trudeau committed hate crimes by attacking protesters with statements that were meant to attract hatred and contempt toward them or not, is academic in a sense. Trudeau has shown his true face for all to see. It should shock Canadians, but the Liberals have been busy marginalizing those who disagree with them for some time, so perhaps people have become numb to civility and rights. They do so at their own peril. 

Good bye to Justin Trudeau

 So, as the "fourth wave" of Covid crashes on the shores of Canada, as our state-floated economy teeters precariously on the edge of a monstrous inflationary bubble, as our sacrifice in Afghanistan is discarded on the winds of expediency, we enter an unwanted federal election. Make no mistake, the Trudeau Liberals are desperately trying to snatch a majority government and the question is why now?

Well, in one way, why not now? After all, a minority government never lasts a full term and this one has been going for awhile now. Trudeau is also rightly saying he wants a majority to steer the country through the upcoming days. Yet, most Canadians seem to be stumbling around in a Covid brain fog, afraid of being too close to their fellow peeps, and absolutely terrified of what has become known in CBC land as "the unvaccinated" (It's time to get rid of the CBC - its well outlived its glory years of Barbara Frum and Knolton Nash). The truth is that Canadians right now, like many other peoples in the world, are running around scared of their own shadow and uncertain where the world is heading.

The printing of money over the last two years in Canada and other nations has resulted in governments replacing the free market to inject roughly equal levels of lost GDP into the world economies. Inflation, which has ballooned the stock market beyond any rationality, is crushing people when buying anything from gas to groceries. Supply chains have been literally destroyed and the "just in time" economy has been brought to its knees. Tankers waiting for goods to haul have been stranded, with their crews, in many case for well over a year at sea. Things are not hunky dory. 

So with that background Trudeau decides the polls are ripe for a majority government. Interestingly, the Nova Scotia Liberal government thought the same, and was just unceremoniously swept from power. It wasn't that per se that likely numbed the Libs, but the fact that such a result federally in the Maritimes spells the denial of a majority government and potentially an outright defeat. 

The truth is Justin Trudeau is not Pierre Trudeau - other than their common love of massive spending and debt. Justin Trudeau has always been a snobby virtue signaler who famously corrected a woman for referring to "mankind" when he said she should say "people kind". After being roundly humiliated throughout the world he quickly said it was all a joke, but we know it wasn't. We also know Trudeau likes to refer to Canada as the first "post-national state". In other words, we have outlived our worth as a nation in less than 154 years - surely a record for any country in history... Not coincidentally, Trudeau has wrapped himself around all movements that undermine or intend to undermine our sovereignty - both as a people and a nation. 

For example, Trudeau, like his dyed in the wool cousin Biden, has declared all federal civil servants must be vaccinated. He has previously said he intends to extend that to all federally regulated businesses. By doing so he fundamentally breeches the Charter of Rights and Freedoms that his father so desperately fought for. He throws individual rights into the trash can in the name of collective rights. Its the kind of thinking that resulted in Japanese-Canadians being thrown into concentration camps in Canada during World War II. It also resulted in former PM Brian Mulroney doing away with the War Measures Act so individual Canadians would no longer be subjected to the panic of the majority. Sound familiar? They thought they had good reasons back then to protect Canadians too... Should this issue land on the steps of the Supreme Court of Canada it likely won't survive long, but how many will have had their rights violated before that happens?

Then their is Trudeaus love for guys like Bill Gates, and the fellows down at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. These guys advocate world government by 2030. They infamously stated that by 2030 you will "own nothing and be happy". They also advocate for a merging of peoples physical entity with technology - yep cyborgs. If it weren't true and happening we would shake our heads at the "conspiratorial nature" of it. From their website, it only takes a few seconds to watch:   World Economic Forum Video

The truth is that this election is truly about the future of Canada as a free country that respects the individual rights over that of the masses, that remains a sovereign nation (as sovereign as they get these days), and something that we can be proud of. It is a clash of visions. On the one hand is the crew that Trudeau represents - the elitist socialist class that is completely immersed in technology and view themselves quite arrogantly as the answer to mankind's next evolution as a species. On the other hand there are those that seek to preserve the sovereignty of the individual and, as much as possible, the state. Are there any political parties that represent the latter? Good question. We know that the Liberals, NDP and Greens fall fully behind the Trudeau World government types. The big question is where the Conservative Party stands.

The Conservative Party traditionally represents the so called "right wing" of Canada - namely the West (minus parts of BC) and Ontario. These parts of the country generally respect rugged individualism and frown upon their rights being usurped. These parts of the country are also the economic engine of Canada. The areas not supporting Conservatives are traditionally most of the Maritimes, Quebec, and a small portion of coastal BC. Is it a coincidence these same areas are on the forefront of vaccine passports, Covid shut downs, and the like? No it's not. 

The federal election in September will provide us a clear answer on whether Canada is till a nation of freedom loving people who respect the rights of the individual over those of the masses, and still hold hope of their country remaining strong and free. It is early, and they say a week in politics is a life time, but I'm feeling that Canadians are going to show Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals the door. There will be areas that strongly support his "woke" virtue signaling and globalist views, but their will be more that are tired of being told who they are, what they are, and how they will do it. Mr. O'Toole made a wise announcement yesterday that the Conservative Party will not force people to be vaccinated. It goes against the hysterical tide, but it is morally right. If O'Toole remains on a course of respecting our individual rights, our national sovereignty, the rules of law and economics, then the Tories will win this election - perhaps with majority. If he slips into the panic and mania group then, as the saying goes: "If you act like a Liberal people will vote in the real Liberals".

Life, Liberty, and Covid

Covid19, the great pandemic of our generations - but is it really? For the last year and a half we have witnessed the closing of the world economy, the printing of money like no other time in our history prior to 1929, and most significantly the alienating of people from one another on a mass scale. Truly, we live in the times that Orwell warned us against in his monumental work 1984. People turning against each other, families torn apart by distance, and most significantly their differing perspectives on the "virus". However, is it really the lethality of Covid that is driving the hardened opinions on both sides, or is it something more?

When the virus first broke out in BC it was relatively innocuous. The first quarter of 2020 witnessed 780 cases which broke down as follows: 299 hospitalizations; 106 of those went into the ICU wards; and a total of 108 died (presumably a number who died did so before getting to the ICU). The numbers showed the virus almost non-existent in populations under sixty years old, and of those older than eighty years old men faired significantly worse for than women. To put that in perspective during 2020, 1716 people died from drug overdoses in British Columbia (BC), 11,100 died of cancer and double that number for heart and stroke deaths. In 2020 a total of 41,148 people died in BC. Another perspective: in the most recent heat wave in BC 719 people died in 5 days read here .

Those were the early days of the virus however, and the numbers now are more significant. From BC's population of 5.1 million people a total of 2.9 million tests have been administered, 147, 705 cases have been diagnosed, 145, 200 have recovered, and 1756 deaths have been reported. You can keep up to speed on the numbers here. So in reality, the total numbers of  Covid deaths in BC, for the last year and a half, numbered 50 more than the amount of people who overdosed on drugs in one year.

As all of us watched the evening news reports back in early 2020, and witnessed Chinese people falling dead in the streets, having the doors on their homes and apartment buildings wielded shut, and their streets sprayed with chemicals, we collectively broke a sigh of relief that it wasn't here in Canada. Then it came, and we panicked. Not everyone of course. In fact many people did not take it too seriously at all, and in the summer it vanished like the seasonal flu, in the fall it came back like the seasonal flu, and now again in the summer it is vanishing - like the seasonal flu. Yet, "waves" of pandemics have been common in our species history. 

Take the Spanish Flu for example. A total of 2 million Canadians, from a population of 8 million (20%) were struck with that virus. Of the 2 million that were infected 50 thousand died or 2.5%. Of the total Canadian population that percentage was .06 or less than 1%. No vaccination was ever created for the virus and it ran its course. Fast forward to today and the numbers are: Canada's population 37.74 million people; 1,417,330 Covid cases (.04% of the population); and 26362 Covid related deaths (.0007% of the population). 

The numbers are startling yet indisputable - the Spanish flu was much, much worse than Covid19. Yet, and this is the crux of this post, we have reacted to it as though it was one hundred times worse. Our governments have closed our economies, suspended our constitutional rights of freedom of assembly, freedom of mobility and also freedom of speech - to put it bluntly, they have suspended our freedoms. Here is another set of numbers for you. Sacred numbers. Numbers you are meant to remember and immortalize each year: 56,638 - the number of Canadian troops killed in World War I; 141,418 - the number of Canadian troops wounded in World War I; 189,224 - total Canadian casualties of World War I; 22,910 - the number of Canadian troops killed in World War II; 57,847 - the number of Canadian troops wounded in World War II; and 80,757 - the number of Canadian casualties of World War II. These numbers do not include the Korean War and other engagements like UN missions or Afghanistan. 

The Canadians that died in battle did so for our freedom. Never forget that. They fought against regimes like the Nazis, and their equally despotic ancestors in the first war. They died freeing people from the suffocating grip of the Taliban. They died protecting people from the Communist Chinese, and on it goes. Their sacrifice was the price for our freedom. However, as the old veterans die off so does their spirit. 

Today we have people that are willingly throwing those very freedoms on the funeral pyre with the promise that it will lead to better things for all. Today in Canada you cannot travel freely without hitting a military checkpoint-like border installation in New Brunswick, or requesting advanced permission to enter into one province from another. Today the government of Canada is openly advocating "vaccine passports" which will imprison people without them within Canada or even within their own province. We are at the place where you need internal travel documents just like Communist USSR and Nazi Germany. In a sense, the government of Canada, and its eager minions in the provincial governments, are sticking a star of David on each of us that won't take the vaccine. What's next? Vaccine ghettos where you must live if you won't take the vaccine. This may sound alarmist to you, but think about where we were as a society 2 years ago and where we are now.

Another eyry complication of  Covid 19 is the division of opinion on how it should be dealt, or whether it even constitutes a real threat in a pandemic sense. After all, it has never happened in history before that people had to be bribed to take the vaccine with entries into lotteries as a reward for rolling the old sleeve up. These are things that should give most rational people pause to think. Yet it doesn't. People, families, friends are divided, but what is the division? The real essence of the division appears to be the belief that the rights of the majority trample those of the minority. It's an ancient problem, and one that was meant to be dealt with by the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Yet, the Charter has simply been ignored throughout, and those that think they know best for others are cramming their opinions and policies down the throats of those that feel differently.

Let's follow their logic to its end: Eating fast food is causing an epidemic of  obesity, heart disease and death so we must ban all fast food and restaurants; driving your car could result in an accident that could injure or kill another; walking outside in the sun without sunscreen could cause skin cancer that requires hospital time, therefore denying another of hospital time, and so walking in the sun without sunscreen must be banned; and on it could go. We live in an era of unrivalled hatred, bigotry, judgement, self-righteousness, and complete disrespect for the opinion and freedom of others. These are the conditions that most totalitarian regimes came to power in throughout history. The well is being poisoned and that well represents the depth of the human kindness. 

Whether you believe Covid 19 is more dangerous than a run of the mill virus or not, whether you believe it's all part of an inter-governmental conspiracy or not, whatever your thoughts and feelings on the matter are, just remember the only thing that differentiates us from the animals is our ability to be spiritual beings. Once the values of freedom, compassion and understanding have been thrown in the trashcan of convenience there is but one direction to go, and that is down. Once freedom that was paid for by the blood of generations is lost it will take the blood of future generations to restore - if at all. At this moment in history I encourage you to be the person you are and not the scared shell of yourself that is being impressed upon you. 

                                                            BE THIS PERSON

   

Modern Israel, and Old Promises

 Israel has the right to exist as a nation. Let's just get that one off the table right away. Israel, or more accurately the descendants of Jacob, whom according to the Bible the Lord named "Israel", finally became a reality for the Jewish people in 1949 after a guerilla war for independence with the British Empire. Initially restricted to a tiny strip of land sandwiched between Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and its old friend/nemesis Egypt, Israel has slowly gained in territory after consecutive successful wars with their neighbors.

According to the Bible, the Lord promised Abraham (Abram at the time):

    " On the same day the Lord made a covenant with Abram, saying: To your descendants I have given this     land, from the river of Egypt to the great River Euphrates." (Book of Genesis)

In other words, this:

Now many people refer to this Israel as an evil "Zionist" conspiracy to consume much of the Easter Mediterranean. However, that's not the truth. It's not a conspiracy at all when it has been laid out in the Bible for Christians to follow. There are a few problems with the concept though. 

The very first problem that immediately comes to one's attention is the sheer vastness of the Biblical Israel. It would include areas of the Middle East that are currently populated by between 40-50 million people, and those people have been there for thousands of years in most cases. Prior to 1939 Jewish communities were thriving in Europe, although often persecuted to one degree or another. After World War Two, and the horror of the Holocaust, there were six million less Jewish people in the world which could have helped populate a "Biblical Israel". Today, modern Israel has a population of  8.7 million people, of which 21% are Arab and another 5% are "other". On the face of things, Hitler's massacre of the Jews of Europe tended to undermine the fulfilling of  the Lord's promise to Abraham. Perhaps that was part of the purpose, but who can truly understand a hatred that deep. 

Another problem, and one that haunts Israel through out the world is the Israeli government's treatment of the Palestinians, and to a lesser extent its neighbors. Again, returning to the Bible, the Lord tells Moses that before taking the Jewish people out of Egypt he must gather up all the gold and silver from amongst the Jewish people and turn it over to the Pharos in order to ease the sting of his loss - in a sense compensation. It didn't work as the Pharos chased them down shortly afterward, but Moses had done his part. So even though Moses had vanquished the Pharos, and the Exodus was happening as a matter of fact, an ethical attempt to remove the "sting" was still necessary.

Unfortunately, modern Israel has simply lost this lesson in humbleness. In fact, it can be easily argued that the government of Israel has attacked with arrogance and impunity whomever it deems as a "threat to its security". Of course it is not alone in crying wolf. "National security", "terrorism", etc are phrases that are bounced around now by many governments seeking to restrict freedoms and impose their will upon other nations. The problem for the Israeli government is that it has always claimed the high ground. It also claims to have the "most moral" army in the world. Despite the boasts, the Israeli army has been absolutely brutal in dealing with dissent from the Palestinians and others. While on the one hand it has become far more wise in its dealings with Iran insofar as it strikes critical components of their nuclear regime while avoiding an Iraq-like  conventional bombing of Iranian facilities,  it blows its own feet off by "knee capping" hundreds of Palestinians who are simply protesting, albeit angrily.

In its dealing with the protesting Palestinians and even Israeli Arabs, the Israeli government has lost all sight of  proportion, moderation and wisdom. It has committed multiple crimes against humanity during the Palestinian uprisings. It has in effect broken its covenant with the Lord:

            Thou shalt not kill;

            Thou shalt love thy neighbor;

            Thou shalt not covet thy neighbors house, 

            or anything that is your neighbors.

Now, inside Israel itself, the Orthodox Jewish people are in near full revolt of the non-Orthodox Jews. Issues such as compulsory military service or observance of the Sabbath, for example have sparked deep anger. Even the idea that Israel is a nation-state has provoked joint protests with Palestinians and Orthodox Jews walking side by side against conventional Israel. In other words, the Orthodox Jewish community appears to believe that modern Israel is breaking its covenant with the Lord as well.

I suppose in the end we are just simple people,  and it isn't our place to judge a covenant made thousands of years before us between the Lord and Abraham. We can only guess and observe at whether it has been broken and what ramifications may come from that - if any. That being said, whether you agree or disagree with the approach Israel takes, we must not bring ourselves to the point of heaping hatred against them. Israel, or the "descendants of  Jacob", have a place of prominence with the Lord. Whether you agree with that is irrelevant. If you don't believe me ask Nimrod...

The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part 3 - Paddick, Risley and Nalcor

On March 3, 2010, Doctor Andrew Furey announced (officially) that he was running to take the leadership of the provincial Liberal Party, and by ricochet the premiership of the province. The video of his announcement can be found here . He makes two very telling statements in his address:

at 8:49 on the tape:

"This change will not be just generational - it will be transformational" ; and

at 14:59:

"Our thriving technology sector has shown the world that geography means nothing when it comes to bold, new ways of thinking in areas such as ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ON-LINE SECURITY AND INNOVATION. Our brightest minds can be see as far as SILICONE VALLEY, the technology giants are taking notice."

I've capitalized the parts of his address that give a simple glimpse of the truth that Andrew Furey and his associates have in mind for the province, the country and the world. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to Furey's promise of a new politics of transparency. You can listen to the whole spiel in his speech at the link above. The ink had literally not dried on the Liberal Party's postponement of the race when Furey deleted every leadership/Liberal tweet from his account. Almost insignificant if it didn't hint at a lack of transparency lying just over the horizon.

In Parts 1 and 2 of this series I outlined a series of business relationships between the people behind Furey - Paddick, Myles and Risley (to a lesser extent). It's time now to focus on that threesome, and their friendship with Furey. As mentioned before, Myles recruited a young and ambitious Paddick and mentored him. Myles and Paddick then partnered with Risley. All of which is detailed here . It all gets a little tangly after that. Suffice it to say that Risley acted as the banker through his Clear Water Fine Foods company, while Paddick acted as the brains and Myles as the facilitator. They became a very successful team.

However, and it's a big however, Paddick entered the realm of public life when he "volunteered" to become Chair of the Board of Nalcor Energy, the province's energy crown corporation, in November, 2016. It just so happens that Paddick and Risley have another business together. A big business in fact. An electricity based business to be precise. Yes, the current head of Nalcor Energy's Board, a crown corporation, is run by  a man who is, and always was, in a potential conflict of interest. You may be aware of a Salt Wire story last year on Paddick complaining he and the Board weren't being paid enough.  The story put it like this:

"Brendan Paddick volunteered and was appointed chair of the Nalcor Energy Board of directors in 2016. He says he took the position largely because he felt a sense of patriotic duty."
But is that true?

Paddick and Risley's venture into the electrical utility market started in 2014 according to their company's website, which you can find here . The website states:

"Mr. Paddick and Mr. Risley founded Cormorant and in 2014, purchased Power Tel and Power Traxx. 2 years later, the acquisition of Eptcon Limited and its fully owned subsidiary, One Line Engineering was finalized in 2016. With the addition of the two companies, our group is becoming one of the largest Ontario-based contractors in the power transmission and distribution industry, and the future synergies will allow us to become a significant player across entire Canada and North America"

(their English, not mine)

In reality, What is Cormorant Utility Services started out as 9099166 Canada Inc on November, 24, 2014. That corporation was amalgamated into another corporation on February 25, 2015 (one quarter later) named Power North Holdings Inc. On March 1, 2017, four months after Paddick "volunteered" to Chair Nalcor's board, Power North Holdings, and another Paddick/Risley company named Columbus Utility Services were amalgamated into what is now today Cormorant Utility Services Inc, Cormorant Atlantic Utility Services Inc. In addition to the four companies listed as controlled by Cormorant (above), it also has a controlling 50% interest in a Calgary-based electrical corporation named BowArk Energy Limited.

As of this time I cannot find any disclosure whatsoever of these interests by Paddick, Nalcor Energy, or the government. Their various press releases on appointments of Paddick can be found Here: Provincial Government here ; and Nalcor here . This failure to publicly disclose the energy/electricity holdings that Mr. Paddick does own creates a serious and palpable potential for conflict of interest. The question to be asked is why? Why don't the various bios and announcements include his experience as an owner in the electrical power/transmission industry? Would it not be common sense to show the man is just not a "cable guy" who got lucky, but also a man deeply experience in the power industry?

There are now some real questions here. Have any of Paddick's companies being doing business with Nalcor on Muskrat Falls or any other supply and services contracts. Given Paddick's business interests, is he steering Nalcor toward privatization? It is very suspicious that the President of Nalcor is a man who built and has holdings in a private energy corporation, and now the Chair of the Board has the same (albeit less). What are the Liberals planning to do with Nalcor and even the liquor corporation for that matter? After all, Wayne Myles, the Chairman of the Board of the Newfoundland Labrador Liquor Corporation also owns Terra Nova Foods Inc ( a large distributor in the province) and sits as Chairman of the Board of Distribution Group Inc (which he also owns).

That brings us back to Andrew Furey. For a man that claims to be bringing in a transformational change to the province, an administration based on "transparency" (can we not just say "the truth"), the facts say otherwise. Furey's biggest immediate, and most public backer (politically as well as to his charities) Paddick is most definitely not being transparent with the public. He is most definitely in a potential conflict of interest, which as the chair of the province's largest crown corporation is a big deal. Have you heard Andrew Furey talk about that? No you haven't. That may not be surprising from a man so concerned about health he starts mercy missions to Haiti, but also has owned a bar with two other gents in Harbour Main for decades - drinking not being the most healthy past time...

The next part to this series will involve Furey's involvement with artificial intelligence. Those Silicone Valley folks he talks up in his campaign address, Paddick, Myles, Risley and a few others will all feature in this. Their intricate web of companies have been established for years now, operating quietly on the sides. Now that Furey is attempting to become Premier of this province people must know exactly who they are selecting to lead them. This series is intended to do just that. They won't get in through the side door without scrutiny. The public deserves no less.

Economic Implosion for Newfoundland and Labrador

It's not news to anyone that Newfoundland and Labrador is in a complete financial collapse. 2003 rang in the era of reaping rewards from the oil industry for the province, but it wasn't long before a new industry, fracking, was revolutionizing the oil industry in the United States - a revolution that is still reverberating through international oil markets and alliances. In any case, the province had ten years to reap what it could before the fracking revolution really kicked off in 2013. The graph below helps show that era:

As you can see, from 1998 until 2007 the province's production was greater than the value created by those barrels. In 2008 production and value finally met, then in 2009-2010 production was again greater than value, but from 2011 until 2014 the province really reaped a massive windfall from its production. Oil's value vs production petered out after 2014 and remains that way to this day. The nuts and bolts of it is that out of 22 years of oil production, the province had only 5 years where we made money on oil by its pure value over simply producing as many barrels as possible.

All that seems a little academic now though. Upwards of $3 billion of that money the government managed to save in the bank was spent as its share of the Muskrat Falls project. The remainder was blown and no provincial rainy day fund was created. In fact, people like Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale often said that Muskrat Falls was that rainy day fund, and that just seems outright scary at this point. Nonetheless, given that oil's best days have come and gone, where are we left today?

Some facts:            18%     of the budget is funded by oil revenue

                               49%     of the budget is funded by taxpayers income tax, sales tax,
                                           booze and smokes revenue

                               4.3%    of the budget is funded by corporate tax

                               18%     of the budget is funded by the federal government

That's the nuts and bolts of it. The average working person in the province and oil (a distant second) pay most of the place's bills.  A real eye opener should be the measly 4.3% corporations in the province contribute to the well being of the bottom line. Another, perhaps more ominous number is 20%. That's the amount that the province must pay on every dollar it makes to service its debt annually.

All these numbers would be enough on their own to paint a foreboding financial picture, but it gets worse - much worse. The key for the province is that 18% of oil revenue, because that revenue actually represents new wealth rather than simply recycled money. It allows the government to pay for the roughly 30% of the province's work force that it employs. Newfoundland and Labrador's 2019 budget pegged oil at $65 a barrel, but then revised it to $63. Either way, the province pretty much hit the market price and its budgeted revenue was for the most part in tact.

However, and its a huge however, once again international strategic events have blind sided the government's best laid plans. The advent of the US fracking revolution created a massive strategic shift in the control of international oil markets - specifically market share. Initially the US essentially satisfied its own oil needs, but as its fracking industry grew the US became an exporter of oil for the first time in history. It was no longer dependent on the Middle East for oil. Now, it can be easily argued, it has used its military and covert forces to knock other players out of the market to make room for its own product. Major oil producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Sudan and even Iraq have been partially or completely removed from the oil market place. Even Russia, until fracking the largest oil producer in the world, has been targeted by US sanctions and attempts to wrestle its market share from Europe.

On March 6, 2020, Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to start an oil war. The story goes that Saudi wanted Russia to sign off on a three year production agreement that would limit each country's oil production - even further than it had already been cut. Russia backed away from that so Saudi opened the valve and promised to flood the markets, bringing Russia to its knees in the process. Russia, especially Putin the judo master, likely saw an opportunity to starve US oil companies by killing their stock values and driving them out of the markets. While all this plays out, innocent bystanders like Canada have seen their own domestic oil industries crippled in the cross fire, and by ricochet, their budgets. While this province escaped 2019 with a break even oil projection of $63 a barrel, it won't be as lucky in 2020. The graph below gives a sense of oil prices for the first quarter of 2020:

Newfoundland and Labrador's stated budget price for oil this year is $65 a barrel (US). As you can see on the graph above, oil was already falling from that point by mid January. Much of the decrease can be attributed to the corona virus outbreak in China, which resulted in oil demand from the world's largest oil importer drying up. The price continued to get worse as things got worse in China, then globally. Then, on March 6, the bottom fell right out as Russia and the Saudis threw in the towel. The market has been trying to find its bottom ever since.

The cost for the province is potentially catastrophic. The average price of oil for the first three months of this year was $51.73 per barrel (US). If oil recovers to a consistent level around $50.00 a barrel the hit to the treasury will be about $300 million. Unfortunately, as bad as that would be, there is no reason to expect either Saudi or Russia will pull back in this market share battle. If oil settles at $30.00 a barrel for the rest of fiscal 2020, the treasury will lose $600 million dollars. For perspective, the province budgeted oil revenue of  $1.09 billion, in other words the government will receive a mere $400 million or about 40% of what it had budgeted for. If, as many analysts have suggested, the price of oil drops to $25 a barrel and remains there, the hit to Newfoundland and Labrador's budget will be a striking $670 million leaving the province with a mere $300 million to fund 18% of its budget for fiscal 2020. It must be remembered that Russian President Putin has stated publicly Russia can withstand a $25 per barrel price for at least 6 years, and lower if necessary.

Now lets turn the page on oil for a moment, and focus on the Coronavirus pandemic's effect on the economy, and therefore budget. The most conservative projections in Canada place the country in a three month shut down. Many others are putting it at four to five months - likely dependent on how bad the pandemic ravages the US. Those will impact the budget:

Scenario One:

The Newfoundland economy shuts down for 3 months, and takes 2 months to regain normalcy. The government will lose in every category of its budgeted revenue. Everything from mining royalties to personal income taxes, and all areas in between. The potential direct cost is in the vicinity of $809 million (cdn), or a 13% loss in budgeted revenue for 2020. Once combine with a $30 per barrel price for oil, the combined loss to the budget will be about 1.5 billion (CDN). Some of that will be slightly offset by the fact Newfoundland and Labrador receives its oil funds based on US dollars - but not a lot. Given the province's budget for 2020 had already pegged a deficit of $1.1 billion, a new deficit projection of $2.6 billion would not be out of the question.

Scenario Two:

The Newfoundland economy shuts down for 4 months, and takes 2 months to regain normalcy. The budgetary losses will be in the vicinity of $869 million, or a 14% budget loss. The combined loss, oil revenue included, is about $1.6 billion, or a total budgetary deficit of  $2.7 billion.

And so it goes.

None of these figures address business losses, or the compensation they may receive for those losses, or what form that compensation will take (ie: loan vs grant), or even whether or not the compensation will be taxable. It does not address the economic costs of closing the tourist industry, or potentially the fishing/processing industry. They don't reflect the costs in interest and financing of shutting down the completion of the Muskrat Falls project. It goes on and on. Bottom line, for a place that was already expecting a terrible financial year, with a preexisting $1.1 billion deficit projection, an oil war and pandemic are especially devastating. Newfoundland and Labrador risks a complete financial collapse from these turbulent times and, perhaps even more deadly for the province, a new 1980's ish exodus of people escaping a doomed ship - so to speak.

It all sounds very negative, but people need to know the truth of what they and their families are facing. Premier Ball said Newfoundland and Labrador is facing a financial crisis once the pandemic crisis is over. He wasn't kidding folks. Reality bites and this will be one hell of a bite. God guard thee Newfoundland and Labrador.
 

The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part 2, Brendan Paddick

1986 was a defining year in the province's cable history. Prior to 1986 there were a number of scattered cable companies all over the island of Newfoundland. Everyone is familiar with former Premier Danny Williams involvement in those early days, but there were others. On May 13, 1986 the CTRC brought down its decision on which one of four cable companies would control cable vision in rural Newfoundland. Danny Williams' company Eastern Cable was in the bidding. So were Shellbird Cable (formerly Western Cablevision of Corner Brook), Central Cable and N1 Cable. HPhil Keeping, N1's founder, and personal mentor to twenty something Paddick, succeeded in convincing the CRTC to grant his company the coveted licence.

Shortly after that fateful decision, Williams' Atlantic Cable bought all the losing companies except N1. A young Brendan Paddick, fresh  from MUN's commerce program, was hired by Keeping to sell N1 to the collection of towns and villages granted to him by the CTRC. During an interview with Atlantic Magazine, Paddick opined on the old days, but his tale also tells us something about him:

"As a salesman for N1, whose business model was to build a rural cable TV network where there wasn't one, I knocked on the doors of literally every home in 151 towns. That was thousands of doors. I knowm people used to look at me and say, 'Well, now, look there's Paddick with a business degree no less, going door-to-door, couldn't find a real job.' But, you know what? In my first year oof doing that, I made about $150,000. Of course, I kept it very quiet..."

The camera pans back to the young door-knocker and his homemaker customer. Remember, he tells her, to stick her yellow copy of the cable work order in the window facing the road. That way, when the technician rolls by later, he'll know which house he's supposed to service. After all, he laughs, street numbers in these rural towns can be hard to find.
'The next thing I knew,' he says, 'is I'd have kids stopping me in the street saying, Mom wants one of those yellow things for her window. It had nothing to do with cable. It was pure peer pressure. Before I knew it, there was this groundswell. They all wanted yellow slips for their windows."

What these statements say, at least to this author, is that Paddick is an aggressive, motivated, manipulative, and ruthlessly determined individual whose primary focus is making money and using the basest means to do it. As he says:"It had nothing to do with cable. It was pure peer pressure," and "Of course, I kept it very quiet". Remember those comments for later.

Despite the aggressive expansion of its business, and re-branding to Regional Communications, the company was having great difficulty in remaining in business. It was not meeting all its debt obligations, and Paddick managed to talk the Board into allowing him to become the company's new president when the original gave his notice.

Then, in 1991, a truly fortuitous moment happened in Paddick's life - he met Wayne Myles. At the time Paddick was running his own company named Research Associates, a market research company. Myles approached Paddick to join the Board of the Victorian Order of Nurses (Myles Chaired the Board - More on Myles the Rotarian in the next part of this series). Once Paddick agreed. Myles became involved in his life helping him to negotiate a concession package, and restructure of the debt of Regional Communications. This allowed for the rebranding of Regional Communications to Persona Communications - as most people are familiar with it. Persona continued on with varying degrees of success until it went public in 1998. After the IPO Paddick became President of Persona.

Myles describes it:
"When he became CEO, we did a number of complex deals for them...in my firm which was then known as Benson Myles. So we did work for Persona across Canada and established a fairly deep relationship with him and his team."

In 2001, Myles hooked up with John Risley (much more on him in next parts), owner of ClearWater Seafoods. At the time, Risley was attempting to take control of FPI, but the Newfoundland government (Brian Tobin) would not give control of more than 15% of the company to any non-Newfoundland entity. The solution was to place Paddick as a Board member. Risley was then successful, on his second attempt, to take over FPI. After that time Myles, Risley and Paddick collaborated in each others' business:" Risley as an investor in Persona; Paddick as a board member of the Risley-founded Clearwater Seafoods public company; and Myles as legal strategist for both."

In 2002, as President of Persona, Paddick purchased a 25% share in Cable Bahamas from his old mentor Phil Keeping. As the Globe and mail noted, in 2002, Paddick did quite well by his new acquisition:
"A walking tour through Persona's management proxy circular and assorted financial statements presents a few curious tourist attractions. Here's one: Brendan Paddick, Persona president, is the happy recipient of a $1.1 million (US), interest free loan. The money, according to the proxy, was used "to finance the purchase of his new personal residence. And where is the new residence? In the Bahamas, lucky him."

By 2003 Paddick faced  a shareholders revolt over his Caribbean wanderings - they accused him of not being focused on Persona's core operations. So, in 2004, Paddick agreed to sell Persona to a group of wealth funds fronted by Dean MacDonald. The wealth fund that purchased Persona could not, however, own holdings outside of North America, so Persona's interest in Cable Bahama became immediately available. Paddick scrambled to buy it before anyone else moved in. He personally did not have the money to purchase it, but his friend John Risley did. As Risley put it:
"We had decided what our launch had to be. We originally thought it (Cable Bahamas) carried a price tag of US $35 million. At a dinner in Toronto, it became apparent that it was going to be US $50 million, and I went home angry and disappointed. Brendan told it was 50 or we weren't going to get going, so I agreed."

According to Paddick:
"Risley actually wired US $50 million to my personal chequing account in the Bahamas without a piece of paper, a demand note or a lawyer involved. We closed the deal after regulatory approvals in February 2005 and the rest is history."

By that same year, despite a seven year rule for citizenship in Barbados, Paddick was a Barbados citizen. Also in that year, Paddick and Risley had run out of their own money after buying the Cable Company of Trinidad and Tobago. Hankering back to his early door-to-door, dogged, pavement-walking days, Paddick and Risley tried to raise funds in New York, but failed. As providence would have it, or just good intelligence, billionaire Michael Lee-Chin and Michael Dell (Dell Computer) came to their rescue. They paid $130 million for a sub sea cable network called New World Networks, which became Columbus Networks. Over the years of purchasing, amalgamating, and selling cable companies in the Caribbean, Paddick established 30 corporations through a law firm owned by one Andrew V Thornhill in Barbados. The disclosure  of these tax haven accounts was made as part of the giant leak of tax haven accounts collectively known as the "Paradise Papers" to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. For your information, the 30 accounts and their details can be read here:

https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=paddick&e=&commit=Search

It is unclear whether or not any of Paddick's businesses or income have paid any taxes in Canada, and specifically Newfoundland and Labrador, in ages. He remains a citizen of Barbados, and his income fund remains there too.

In November, 2016, Brendan Paddick was named Chair of Nalcor Energy, despite having no background in utilities or mega projects, other than being the "cable guy".

Exactly six months later, Wayne Myles, lawyer, chief connector with a large empire of his own, was named as Chair of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liquor Corporation.

The next part in this series will focus on John Risley, Wayne Myles, Mark Dobbin with a few others, and their ties to Doctor Andrew Furey. The alarming agenda behind the coronation of Andrew Furey.

The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part One

Doctor Andrew Furey, son of Senator Furey (Chair of the Senate of Canada), Surgeon, Philanthropist, humanitarian, and family man. Have I missed anything? This is how Furey is being sold to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, and all of it is true to one degree or another. However, and it's the biggest however I can give you, that is only one side of Andrew Furey. The other side of Furey, the one that is driving his coronation as Liberal leader and therefore Premier, couldn't be more different. That side of Furey is all business, friends in business, and back room wheeling and dealing. The two seem impossible to reconcile on the face of it, but facts don't lie.

To understand the backroom deal made to bring Furey in as Premier you have to understand that in the realm of the backroom. or the darker side of politics shall we say, there exists a schedule. When a person such as Furey "suddenly" emerges onto the scene, and has this sudden swell of support, you need to understand that it is not spontaneous. It involves years of grooming and positioning by handlers and fixers. Anyone remotely close to Furey's position has both - normally close to their inner circle. They also have financial backers to pay for organizing it all, and to fix those problems that come up along the way. Furey has these folks, and in the following parts to this expose I will be laying them out in detail for the people of the province.

Another important fact to remember is that the soil which has fed the political and business roots of Furey's life has been supplied by his father - Senator George Furey. In itself, there is nothing wrong with that, and all of us might hope our Dad would do the same for us. However, in the context of the rise of Andrew Furey, and the business interests that he has surrounded himself with, it is important to note that his father has been in the general area, so to speak.

All of that generally brings us to the backroom dealings to bring Furey into the Premiership of the province. Without getting into too much detail in this part of the expose, suffice it to say several clues were put out there to show people what happened. The first thing you need to understand is that backroom deals appointing Premier are across party lines - ie: in this case the backroom of the PC Party has decided to throw Ches Crosby on the proverbial pitchfork, and the PCs will be relegated to opposition with a caretaker leader - as per the schedule.

The first clue a move was under foot, from the general public's perspective, was the decision by the Liberal government not to proceed with a public inquiry into the Humber Valley Paving scandal. Frank Coleman, who was at the time owner of the company, and anointed leader of the PC's (Premier in waiting actually), was a long-time business associate of not only Andrew Furey's father, but also Brendan Paddick, John Risley, Peter Woodward, Rex Anthony, and Danny Williams. Other major business people with links to Andrew Furey, and or his father, include people such as Paul Antle and especially Mark Dobbin (as you will see later). Here's a little taste of what's to come on this:

The Fish Merchants Battle For the PC Leadership
Rock Solid Politics, March 30, 2014,
https://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-fish-merchants-battle-for-pc.html

"
Coleman was educated as an economist. He was the senior economist for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (before there was a Nalcor), and had a private consulting business known as Atlantic Consulting Economists Ltd. Strangely, he wrote a study in 1993 on the economic feasibility of the Trans Labrador Highway - which his company is now paving. But there are many more twists along this road.

It goes back to the fishery, strangely enough. Back to the days of FPI. FPI was a company formed by the provincial government from the assets of a number of failed fishing companies in 1984. Then, in 1987 under Premier Peckford, FPI was privatized. Previous to the privatization, a number of fishing corporations that were competitors to FPI put forward proposals to take it over, but the government wouldn't relax the rule of a maximum 15% ownership per entity. The predecessor to Iceland Group PLC was one of them. The Risley Group (Clear Water) was another. The proposals were refused by the government, and John Risely blamed the Williams government for meddling in the deal, and killing it. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/government-meddling-hastened-fpi-s-demise-risley-1.652838

In any case, Bill Barry of the Barry Group (the other PC leadership candidate) thought he had secured a deal to buy FPI's Newfoundland assets - so much so that it was made public:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/fpi-reaches-deal-to-sell-local-operations/article676850/ 

But, the Williams' government didn't go with Mr. Barry. Instead, the assets were sold off to Ocean Choice International which was owned by Ches Penney of the Penney Group. National media were so perplexed by Penney's move that they speculated he could be the front man for an Icelandic company: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/who-is-this-guy-and-whys-he-investing-in-fish/article1077331/
The other successful bidder was High Liner Foods Inc of Nova Scotia - which bought a plant and FPI's US marketing arm.

What was left of FPI became FP Resources Ltd. (FPR) FPR's membership is a who's who of the Newfoundland and Labrador business establishment : Peter Woodward (Woodward Group); Rex Anthony (Anthony Group); Frank Coleman (Coleman Group); and previous members John Crosby and George Furey. International players are: Iceland Group PLC; Glitner Banki hf (recently stripped of its bank status in Iceland and in the midst of serious issues); Eric Barratt (Sanford Limited New Zealand); and Randy Bishop (Whitecap International Seafood Exporters). John Risely and his Risely Group of Nova Scotia round out the list.

FP Resources took its cash from the fishery and began investing in the Caribbean. Specifically it began investing in a company called CFFI Venture (Barbados) Inc. (CFFI). CFFI in turn invested in Columbus Communications Ltd, a privately owned telecommunications company that provides retail, cable and internet services to Jamaica, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Grenada, and broadband connectivity to Caribbean countries.  Columbus is run by Newfoundlander Brendan Paddick. He was also the CEO of Persona Communications, which some of you may remember being at the centre of a $15 million contract controversy (Williams' government gave Persona an untendered  $15 million contract to deliver cable services to Labrador). http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tax-dollars-boosted-persona-for-sale-reid-says-1.678159 "

By dropping the judicial/public inquiry into Coleman and his company, the Liberals signaled a deal had been done. Within a week Dwight Ball resigned as Premier. The media in the province is spinning Ball's departure as an uprising within the caucus against Ball. The truth is that certain cabinet ministers within the caucus, acting in conjunction (more or less orders) with the backroom, deliberately undermined Ball to make room for Furey. Furthermore, there is evidence the federal Liberal party is up to its neck in the Furey coronation (later in parts to come). Suffice it to say that the political/business establishment is behind the "sudden rise" of Andrew Furey.

It is also evident that once Furey is made leader of the Liberal Party (officially), and Premier (officially), that he will call a summer election. The first clue for this is the temporary spending bill just passed in the House of Assembly that funds the government until June. The second clue is that Furey will be an un-elected Premier, which has never happened in the province's history, and therefore its a good excuse to call an election so he can "have a mandate, blah, blah...". You get the idea.

Other signs to look for:

1. The media, especially the CBC, spinning stories that make Ches Crosbie look bad or ineffectual;

2.  Media, or Liberal spinners (yes, like you Lori Ann Oates), stressing the need for a new economy in the province based on technology rather than resources (as if the place doesn't need every single cent it can squeeze from any rock available...)

3.  Key words like "transformational"and "generational" and "fundamental" "change" coming from the media, business, and/or previously mentioned shills. These words are a clue to what Furey and his business backers/friends have in store for the province. They're trying to get people thinking along those lines before they bring in their plans;

4.  A heavy emphasis on the state of the economy and the desperate need to act - to create fear in the public, and condition them for saving solution; and

4.  Marginalizing of critics publicly.

These are some of the things you can expect. There may well be others for the same purpose. The important thing for you to know, as a Newfoundlander and Labradorean, is that you are being played yet again by the business elite of the province - as disgusting as that is. Muskrat Falls made some in the business community very rich. They took what little money you had, and then they mortgaged you for generations, but they got their piece. Now they are about to do it again. This time it will involve technology. The "transformation" that Furey referred to in his opening address has to do with digitizing the province, artificial intelligence, and selling people's genetic information - most notably to an American corporation. All the players mentioned above have a hand in it. Most have formed corporations to profit from it. It's happening exactly the same way Muskrat Falls happened: an arranged political coronation that has at its core people with vested interests that will cost the people of the province whatever they might have left.

The parts coming up in this expose will be the detailed breakdown of the business people involved in this "transformation", their relationship to Andrew/George Furey, and the detailed breakdown of the corporations and organizations they have established over the last decade to get ready for this moment. You've been warned. Be vigilant. Be informed. Let others know the truth. If you question whether I'm telling you the truth ask yourself this: "Was he telling us the truth about Muskrat Falls?"