Quebec Owned Newfoundland

"Owned" in the sense of being utterly defeated by one's enemies. Quebec owned Newfoundland, and now all of Labrador is up for grabs. That was recently thrown out there in a rather arrogant and disrespectful way by former Hydro-Quebec big shot F. Pierre Gingras. A short version of his commentary in La Presse: "Give us "back" Labrador and we'll throw 1000 MW of power to you." The proverbial "crumbs to the vanquished". Words that were meant to send a message to Newfoundland's elite. Or, in simpler terms: "you are done like dinner".

This is no great surprise to me. Rather, it's simply a sad confirmation of the warning I've given over and over to the Newfoundland back room types that have paraded to my door in Hickman's Harbour "for coffee". Yes, believe it or not, the same people that have ridiculed me for half a decade really want to know what I think - just not publicly. I suppose to do otherwise would be having to admit they don't know what the hell they're doing, and need help from the guy they decided to publicly humiliate here. Oh well, the wheel turns. A big thank-you to my wife who barely holds her contempt for them while they sip their Tim Hortons in the living room.

I've always been a Newfoundland patriot. I moved here to be that person. To rediscover my Newfoundland roots, and to offer what I could to the place. I suppose that's what most people do when they move somewhere. For me it was personal though. My Grandmother was a Newfoundlander, and I loved and respected her dearly. However, my Grandfather was a Quebecer, who I never knew as he died before my birth. My father was a by product of both - an Irish home where English was all that was spoken, immersed in a culture of French vs. English politics. I grew up with an understanding of the Newfoundland fighting spirit and the French strategic thinking. Obviously, like any child born in a "mixed marriage", I chose a side that was closest to my heart, and moved to Newfoundland.

That being said, the very first thing I became aware of was the complete lack of strategic thinking in Newfoundland. Essentially all fight and no thinking was the over arching theme I found here. I saw the pied pipers leading the people here down the garden path and right into devastation. Not just financial devastation, but also territorial devastation. The complete abyss. that is the real reason I ran for the PC leadership back in 2011. The uppity come from away who thought he knew better than the Newfoundlanders already in place. It's the same reason I ran for the Liberal leadership a short time later - albeit with more invites to run there than within the PC crew. The bottom line is I was desperately trying to stop what is now taking place today - essentially throwing myself under the bus for the place. That sounds soppy, but the truth is the truth. There will be those that say "Oh Cabana's getting on with his Messiah complex", but I say to them: Who was right and who was wrong. Giving everything means you care enough to.

Now, with the recent decision in Quebec Superior Court (which was predicted and totally predictable), Quebec has its hands at our throats. Williams and Dunderdale always spewed that they had to "break the stranglehold" of Quebec over the development of Labrador, but the reality is they simply handed Quebec our throats. With our Water Management Agreement now utterly useless, and the project still being built, Quebec can hardly believe that Newfoundland's elite has been frankly that stupid. They are rubbing their hands in glee, and mocking Newfoundland now: "Here, we'll throw you that 1000 MW of power you always wanted, now get out of our Labrador". Literally, they are laughing at us, but who wouldn't. Our political elite gave it to them.

Williams recently appeared in the media screaming about Hydro-Quebec visiting the Muskrat Falls site, and warning of a cave in to Quebec. It reminded me of PC leader Paul Davis's warnings during the election that the Liberals would lay off civil servants and cut programs, when in reality he knew full well he left them few options but to. Williams defiant comments that we are " not roadkill" and should not be "on our knees" to Quebec strike the highest note of irony considering it was his "strategic" moves that placed us in that exact position. All totally foreseeable, except for those who refused to see - which was almost everyone in the province.

So now the piper must be paid, and the big question is how. How to recuse a white elephant that may cost $15 billion, and can only produce about 150 MW without that Water Management Agreement that we just lost out on in Court - although the b'ys here still don't have the courage to admit that to the people of the Province. Stan Marshall simply lied in a teleconference about it, and when chased by reporters with specific questions the line for the teleconference suddenly went dead. Dwight Ball hasn't spoken on it once to the media. The greatest court loss in the province's history and no comment. Instead, Williams is right on this one thing, our brain trust are on their knees over at Hydro-Quebec's office in Montreal, and the Prime Minister's office in Ottawa. They're trying to pull the old "come on b'ys, we're loveable, give us a break here, there must be something we can do to make all this go away". The answer came from Gingras: "give us Labrador". We hold all the cards. We own the Prime Minister.

Now all the people of Newfoundland hear is deathly silence. Nalcor says boldly: "we will appeal that decision", and in somewhat more hushed tones "but we will abide by the decision in the mean time". Like they had a choice. The elite in Quebec have set Newfoundland up, and they aren't about to play boy scout and let Newfoundland out of the trap. Harper's gift of a federal loan guarantee was always, and obviously, a poisoned chalice. The man hated Newfoundland. That just wasn't that difficult to see. They handed this province a rope and we hung ourselves - or perhaps more accurately our "elite" hung us for the riches they would receive. The truth is there are now no longer any good options. There are only bad, and really bad options. Surrender Labrador of bankrupt all of Newfoundland and Labrador - then Quebec will come in and pick it up for a cent on the dollar. Surrender the Upper Churchill and Quebec will control Labrador in every way but name. Etc.

There is of course the independence movement in Labrador that is being fanned covertly by Quebec. Most people don't realize that Quebec has its own "intelligence service". It is in every location where Quebec has strategic financial interests - including places like China where Hydro-Quebec is deeply involved. Its service targets the decision makers and influencers in these strategic markets to further its overall goals. One of those very important goals is Labrador. In case you didn't realize it, after the French language, the territorial goals of a "greater" Quebec rank a close second. In other words, Quebec will stop at nothing to take Labrador. To think otherwise is to seriously underestimate the enemy. There is already a great deal of evidence on the ground that Quebec's "intelligence service" is fully engaged, under the radar, promoting Labrador separatism. By the way, check out the recent court decision in Quebec for a hint of where Quebec is at with Labrador. The deciding judge refers to the "Government of Newfoundland" through out his decision. There is no "and Labrador" attached to the title...

For me, I suppose, it was a fight worth having, but you can't help those who won't help themselves. I recall being labelled a "dangerous zealot" by a certain radio host here over my fight to stop what's happening now. When you're labelled that way by those you consider dear, and fellow patriots, it's hard to take anything more from the conversation. I sacrificed financially, and my family sacrificed much more, in the fight to stop this. Now all that is left to do is watch the surrender of our province - which is a hard pill to swallow.

The Mouse Trap-Battle of Ukraine

It might seem like a strange headline, but the war in Ukraine really is over already. Some wars have their ending written the moment they are started - the fighting and dying being the interlude between the two. Take for example World War II. Hitler was warned by his Generals not to start the war in 1939, because Germany's rearmament was not ready and the prospect of over extension was obvious. Hitler didn't listen, and the moment German tanks crossed the Polish border the war was lost - for Germany. The case is remarkably the same here.

What started as a very obvious western coup of the then Russia friendly government of Ukraine turned into a civil war. Although it is denied, by both sides, the West and Russia have fed and lead the opposing forces in the Ukraine from the get go. However, unlike almost all other proxy wars the two have waged against each other since WWII, this time the collision between the two has become almost inevitable. It almost happened earlier in Syria when Chinese and Russian war ships steamed into the waters off its coast to challenge an immanent American-led assault. The US blinked, and the rest is history. Now the battlefield is Ukraine.

The Novorossyia forces (NAF), also known as separatists to the Ukrainians, led by Igor Stelkov (former Russia army Colonel), created what can best be described as an "elastic defence". What that means is they spread themselves out thinly around towns, villages and cities throughout the Ukraine provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk that they claim as their own. Rather than negotiate with the NAF, the newly self-appointed government of Ukraine immediately responded with military force. First with weak incursions by a handful of armored personnel carriers (APCs), which were chased by residents out of communities, and then more radical "Right Sector" (neo-nazis) and "National Guard" units.

The Ukrainians gradually took each little community or town one by one. The NAF gradually withdrew to the areas directly surrounding their two cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. On the face of it, the Ukraine army appears on the verge of victory, but things aren't always what they seem. Firstly, as the NAF slowly withdrew from their elastic defence, they took a very serious toll on the Ukraine army's equipment and troops. Estimates are in the tens of thousands of deaths and wounded. The Government of Ukraine vigorously denies it, but the decree of mandatory service last week strongly suggest the numbers are true, and Ukraine needs replacements. The NAF, of course, are also taking serious casualties, but they are in reinforced defensive positions giving them a strong advantage. The traditional figure, if the attackers do not have air superiority, which in this case Ukraine does not, is about 10-1. Given each city is rumored to have at least 10,000 fighters, the Ukrainians would need about 150-200 thousand troops to take them. They are nowhere near that.

How then does Ukraine propose to overcome this tactical problem? It seems they intend to rely on massive artillery. In particular, the use of Grad and Smerch rocket artillery. Both these weapons systems were designed to tear apart NATO tank formations by the Soviets. They fire multiple rockets in each salvo, and flatten the ground grid by grid. Ukraine has been using these rocket systems already in smaller locals, but these are large cities - 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. Herein comes the part where you lose the war once you start it.

To fight a war in a cities of this size is a massive effort. The casualties are huge. The destruction wide spread. The civilian casualties unconscionable. Take the battles in Syria's cities for example. Or Stalingrad, Leningrad, Berlin, etc. The Ukraine army is slowly, methodically being drawn into a trap of its own making. For starters, it has transferred a massive amount of its men and equipment from the West of Ukraine to the front in the East. Those forces are focused around the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and being warn down. These are its best units. However, the biggest danger for Ukraine is that the vast majority of its army is now within range of Russian artillery/rocket forces without those same forces having to leave Russia. Furthermore, the Ukraine forces are effectively without any air support.

I call it the "Mouse Trap". Russian forces, having lured the Ukraine army east, with the NAF being the cheese, can now trap those forces behind the Dnieper River - unable to defend the western part of Ukraine - including Kiev. That would be the metal part of the bar coming down on the neck. A good example of this is the Donetsk pocket that formed between the Russian border and southern Donetsk province. Ukrainian forces, following ambitious orders of the new President of Ukraine Poroshenko, sent 3 of the best and largest battalions they had to close all the border points between Russia and Ukraine. These forces swept north of Maripol and continued along the Russian/Donetsk border capturing crossing after crossing - until they came up against fortified emplacements waiting for them around Torez area. Then, suddenly, way back where they started the swing, the NAF captured a relatively small position that cut the entire force off from any resupply. Without air support or resupply, units like the 79th and 72nd airmobile brigades were systematically destroyed where they were trapped. Many have died. Many have surrendered to Russia at the border. Most of their equipment is destroyed. That battle continues. Point is, they were lured in and then destroyed, helplessly.

On a much bigger scale, this is what I believe Russia is doing to Ukraine, and in a sense its western allies. The calculation is: will the West go to war with Russia over Ukraine? The obvious answer is no. Being that the answer is no, Russia has a free hand to really act at any time it chooses in Ukraine. It may allow Ukraine to wither away in a battle of bloody attrition in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, and then move in when its citizens can no longer stand the scenes of civilian casualties and destruction. It may choose to move sooner to save the inhabitants, and bring its people along board. One thing it certainly will not allow is a NATO presence of any kind in eastern Ukraine, and western Ukraine is also questionable. Putin still sits back, with many cards up his sleeve, with the cat like smile that has become famous. Europe entertains the thought of already deflating economies, and what a Russian withdrawl from their economies would mean - instant depression. The US has too many balls in play around the world to react, and even if they could, what can they do to the Russians that the Russians can't do back to them? Not much.

It's a game of chess. A friend once called it Wizards Chess (after the famous Harry Potter scene). I call this particular strategy the "Mouse Trap", and Ukraine is the mouse.