Here we go Quebec. Its election time and the big question is: "are the separatists going to win?" Certainly the national press are tripping over themselves trying to disect the outcome, and its possible consequences. The last poll before the election is showing the PQ in the lead by 5% in a virtual three -way race. The same poll shows over 60% are against separation. Only 28% are backing that option. The second place runners are portaying themselves as nationalist business types that don't want to leave Canada yet, because the Quebec economy is not quite ready for that. Not a ringing endorsement, but second best in the snake pit. Question is though: " what message are Quebecers sending to the rest of the country."
The answer is typical politics Quebec style. Quebecers are poised to put in place a government that wants to get in the face of the federal government. Yet, they are not poised to give it a working majority. It will be held in check domestically by its weak election victory, but able to bark at the rest of the country at will. That suits a major purpose just on the horizon for all of Canada.
2013 marks the year of equalization negotiations. It will be one of the most divisive times in our history as a country, and threatens to rip the proverbial flesh from the bones. Provinces and territories standing against each other, and against the federal government, in a battle of wills over dollars. Equalization dollars. For Quebec last year that was around $8 billion - a huge part of their budget that helps pay for the european style social programs they enjoy. Those two issues are the heart of Quebec's election, and have been since the sixties. Socialism paid by the rest of Canada.
Fast forward to this election, and understand that Quebecers are not voting for a government to negotiate separation, but rather equalization. They are voting in the threat to achieve the goal. They are reigning in the threat with a weak government, but holding the card of a subsequent election up their sleeve. Each and every denial to them will be portrayed as a new and more grevious affront to Quebec's "legitimate aspirations". They understand that provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and even Newfoundland and Labrador will be seeking to hold onto their oil revenues while attacking Quebec's hydro revenues. They have a quasi partner in Ontario and some of the maritime provinces that are becoming more and more reliant on equalization.
The people in Quebec have turned small "s" socialist, as evidenced by their endorsement of the NDP federally. The PQ, while not strictly socialist, is the closest thing in provincial politics there. The second place party is more business oriented, which is a political philosophy that Quebecers do not entirely trust. The Liberals were a good mixture of both in theory, but not so much in practise.
Post election Quebec will be turbulent in itself. Corruption will become the interim major issue with provincial Liberals being roasted on the proverbial stick. Big business, organized crime, and probably federally orientated forces will be exposed. Deals like the privitization of oil and gas prospects from Hydro Quebec to small, Liberally connected energy firms will likely come into focus. Territorial challenges from Newfoundland and Labrador in the Gulf, and possibly Labrador, will be ignited. Deals and plans for the Plan Nord will certainly come under scrutiny. These times will unfold as a time of "truth". The separatists will portray the truth as the ideal of "Quebec society" being violated by federalists and corrupted, disloyal businesses. They will argue for a return to a managed economy with loyal crown corporations like Hydro Quebec centering that move. They will look to rescind deals that they deem do not serve Quebec's interest.
So, we enter a new time of conflict this coming week. Will the country respond as it always has? Will Quebec be given the Plan B scenario as Chretien gave it to them? Will gateways and northern plans be scuttled? Time will tell. All we can say for sure now is Quebec has chosen its champion.
Showing posts with label equalization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label equalization. Show all posts
Friday, August 31, 2012
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Dunderdale's Dithering
“The amount of influence we have is certainly now on the table for examination. There is no question about it.” Kathy Dunderdale, 17 May, 2012.
Those bewildering remarks came from Premier Dunderdale in response to the federal government's decision not to expand the role of the Goose Bay military installation that had been promised. She indignantly screeched at the cameras her utter dismay, her complete confusion, and her total contempt for the Minister of Defence Peter MacKay. She even put in a not so subtle threat to the Prime Minister:
"For me, at the moment, it’s a Minister MacKay problem.”
Dunderdale proclaimed, in an indignant rampage, that Newfoundland and Labrador had been let down once again by the dastardly federal government. She questioned what it would take to get the federal government to do her will:
"What is it that we have to do down here to get your attention?" she said. "We try to cooperate, it doesn't work. We vote for you, it doesn't work. We don't vote for you, it doesn't work. What is it?"
And in those remarks lies the mentality for all to see. The simple, fatal flaw that has befuddled Newfoundland and Labrador politicians since 1949. The truth of the matter is that the corrupt, disloyal, divisive feudal politics used by Newfoundland and Labrador's politicians doesn't wash in the greater Canadian political culture. Not because it is unique or cultural, but because it is the type of politics that most people in Canada want to see banished to the annals of history.
The Premier's attempt to manipulate a campaign promise some 6 years old to play the victim card illustrates the point well. Feeling political pressure on the Island she abandons her own, very public, alliance with the Prime Minister and in the process fans republican/separatist feelings in the province with the tried and true strategy of: "they screwed us again". Not over some life or death issue like say the Marine Search and Rescue Centre (I was at the protest in St. John's, but didn't see her..). That happened too close to her deal with Harper, and she didn't want to jeopardise the Muskrat Falls loan guarantee. Not over the feds agreement with Quebec which recognized their jurisdiction over Old Harry - one day before the last federal election. No, she picks a six year old campaign promise, and attacks Peter MacKay instead of the man who made the promise - Mr. Harper.
Instead of taking responsibility for a political arrangement that she freely entered into, Dunderdale blamed the federal government for failing on their end of the deal. In that way Dunderdale managed to live up to the most ancient political trend in politics - lack of accountability. She then fired a verbal assault on Peter MacKay that didn't even make the national news - and when has it happened that a premier attacking a federal minister hasn't made the headlines? And what does she have to leverage over the federal government's head if they don't listen? Absolutely nothing. She has no cards to throw on the table. She doesn't even know how to create cards to throw on the table. Her whole strategy is: "I'll huff, and I'll puff, and I'll blow your house down."
Course the feds are likely sitting back and having a good laugh. After all, a Premier with no cards that sets her own house on fire is hardly a going concern for the federal government. The feds are cutting across the board. They are applying their own brand and view of fiscal federalism - which they are entitled to do as a majority government (not an endorsement by the way). They are going to get grief from every provincial government. The key difference is most provincial governments aren't going to try and manipulate that in order to excite the provincial separatism that may exist in their jurisdiction. They aren't going to try and alienate their own people from their country. They aren't going to equate loyalty and citizenship to the dollar. They aren't going to commit the disloyal, some would say treasonous, act of taking flags down from government buildings.
They realize that they are stronger as one, despite the ideological differences. They understand budgetary decisions as they make them as well. To commit the despicable act of lowering flags, and alienating people from their own country only serves to isolate the province. It does not create allies in the rest of the country - unless you count Quebec separatists. It makes you look small, petulant, and childish. It makes you look untrustworthy. Without trust you can count on repeating this little diddy over and over again:
“The amount of influence we have is certainly now on the table for examination."
Those bewildering remarks came from Premier Dunderdale in response to the federal government's decision not to expand the role of the Goose Bay military installation that had been promised. She indignantly screeched at the cameras her utter dismay, her complete confusion, and her total contempt for the Minister of Defence Peter MacKay. She even put in a not so subtle threat to the Prime Minister:
"For me, at the moment, it’s a Minister MacKay problem.”
Dunderdale proclaimed, in an indignant rampage, that Newfoundland and Labrador had been let down once again by the dastardly federal government. She questioned what it would take to get the federal government to do her will:
"What is it that we have to do down here to get your attention?" she said. "We try to cooperate, it doesn't work. We vote for you, it doesn't work. We don't vote for you, it doesn't work. What is it?"
And in those remarks lies the mentality for all to see. The simple, fatal flaw that has befuddled Newfoundland and Labrador politicians since 1949. The truth of the matter is that the corrupt, disloyal, divisive feudal politics used by Newfoundland and Labrador's politicians doesn't wash in the greater Canadian political culture. Not because it is unique or cultural, but because it is the type of politics that most people in Canada want to see banished to the annals of history.
The Premier's attempt to manipulate a campaign promise some 6 years old to play the victim card illustrates the point well. Feeling political pressure on the Island she abandons her own, very public, alliance with the Prime Minister and in the process fans republican/separatist feelings in the province with the tried and true strategy of: "they screwed us again". Not over some life or death issue like say the Marine Search and Rescue Centre (I was at the protest in St. John's, but didn't see her..). That happened too close to her deal with Harper, and she didn't want to jeopardise the Muskrat Falls loan guarantee. Not over the feds agreement with Quebec which recognized their jurisdiction over Old Harry - one day before the last federal election. No, she picks a six year old campaign promise, and attacks Peter MacKay instead of the man who made the promise - Mr. Harper.
Instead of taking responsibility for a political arrangement that she freely entered into, Dunderdale blamed the federal government for failing on their end of the deal. In that way Dunderdale managed to live up to the most ancient political trend in politics - lack of accountability. She then fired a verbal assault on Peter MacKay that didn't even make the national news - and when has it happened that a premier attacking a federal minister hasn't made the headlines? And what does she have to leverage over the federal government's head if they don't listen? Absolutely nothing. She has no cards to throw on the table. She doesn't even know how to create cards to throw on the table. Her whole strategy is: "I'll huff, and I'll puff, and I'll blow your house down."
Course the feds are likely sitting back and having a good laugh. After all, a Premier with no cards that sets her own house on fire is hardly a going concern for the federal government. The feds are cutting across the board. They are applying their own brand and view of fiscal federalism - which they are entitled to do as a majority government (not an endorsement by the way). They are going to get grief from every provincial government. The key difference is most provincial governments aren't going to try and manipulate that in order to excite the provincial separatism that may exist in their jurisdiction. They aren't going to try and alienate their own people from their country. They aren't going to equate loyalty and citizenship to the dollar. They aren't going to commit the disloyal, some would say treasonous, act of taking flags down from government buildings.
They realize that they are stronger as one, despite the ideological differences. They understand budgetary decisions as they make them as well. To commit the despicable act of lowering flags, and alienating people from their own country only serves to isolate the province. It does not create allies in the rest of the country - unless you count Quebec separatists. It makes you look small, petulant, and childish. It makes you look untrustworthy. Without trust you can count on repeating this little diddy over and over again:
“The amount of influence we have is certainly now on the table for examination."
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