Canada's"Arab Spring"- Election 2011

The "Arab Spring", as it has come to be known, began in Tunisia in 2011. It spread a wave of unrest throughout the Arab world toppling existing political dynasties along the way. A wave of discontent aimed at fundamentally shifting out dictators, and their processes of distributing power. Even though many of those that participated in the unrest had little or no idea what democracy is, they did however want a different kind of political environment than the one they lived in. That brings us to Canada, and our own "Canadian Spring".

Canadians have been governed now for five years by a Party that has had less than 39% of the popular vote -  in itself a fundamentally undemocratic predicament. Political power was consistently rewarded based on concentrations of power in certain geographical areas of the country, while others were purposely marginalized. The Alberta Reformers married the Ontario Harris Tories, and the two lauded it over a wounded Liberal Party, and a marginalized NDP. Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and to some degree Ontario were left out of the mix. A polarization of the country and the political process has become the norm. The deep roots of this polarization have erupted in Parliament, with a finding of Contempt of Parliament being the final result.

The Conservative's hold on power seemed in jeopardy until the evening of the English debate where Mr. Ignatieff failed to convince those that wanted change that he was their man. A sense of hopelessness overcame the Canadian political scene, and people became resigned to the fact that a Conservative government was inevitable. That resignation began to lead all the leading opinion shapers to believe that a majority Conservative government was inevitable. It seems that thinking led to a popular uprising in Quebec. Like Tunisia before it, Quebec became the wind that fanned the flame of change. That wind was coloured orange. Overnight Jack Layton became a factor. The NDP became serious.

Ontario, as it traditionally does, began to question it's political leanings in light of developments in Quebec. A sense of protest, like the Arab Spring, began to grow there. British Columbia, with strong NDP leanings, started to shift. Suddenly, on the eve of the vote, the NDP is 5 points behind the Conservatives nationally. The question is will it result in seats? The answer is most definitely yes. The NDP is now on the verge of taking at least 50 seats in Quebec alone. The Conservatives are looking at having a large percentage of the popular vote across Canada, but a lot less seats. In fact, they are losing popular vote in Ontario, which will result in less seats for them in Ontario. The NDP is on track to form a minority government come 2nd of May, 2011.

Why is this NDP surge happening here, and why now? The answer is the governing style of the Conservatives. They abused Parliament. They refused political responsibility for their actions. In many ways they betrayed the democratic principles of their Reform roots. I am not saying that Harper is a dictator, and that our political system is a dictatorship - although some do. What I am saying is that all things are relative. We as a people aren't marching in the streets. Nobody is getting shot. There are no tanks. Our choice of protest is the ballot. Our day of protest is election day. Make no mistake, though, this Canadian election has become a 'Canadian Spring'.

Election prediction 2011 - and the Aftermath

In the stormy waters of the 2011 general election a prediction is hard to come by. The old adage "a week in politics is a long time" has never been so true. The campaign started with a well orchestrated dissolution of Parliament. A focused Conservative strategy that included several months of preparatory attack ads on the credibility of Liberal leader Ignatieff. Not unlike a military operation where you fire artillery at the enemy and attack when there are only dead and dying left.

Every detail was planned. In Newfoundland and Labrador we witnessed Senator Manning announce multiple federal financial commitments to communities in his own riding right up to the date of the fall of government. We witnessed the signing of the Quebec Offshore Accord one day before the fall of government. We witnessed the unholy alliance of Kathy Dunderdale, and the provincial PC's, with the Harper Conservatives. A dubious commitment to provide funding or guarantees for the Lower Churchill being the grease on the wheel. All things were a go, and the Conservatives believed the twelve elusive seats they needed to form a majority were well in place.

However, as we say in the military, no plan survives the first contact with the enemy. In Newfoundland and Labrador the peace treaty made by the provincial PC's almost immediately proved futile. Mr. Harper's credibility with the people here was not improved. Ms. Dunderdale was viewed as a traitor to Danny Williams - and he has not come out to disprove the notion. The collection of "respectable" candidates, trotted out from all sorts of previous political appointments to run was viewed with immediate suspicion. The ultimate result of the back fire in this province was Mr Harper's rather catastrophic campaign stop last week where barely 100 people turned out. Even worse, Ms. Dunderdale and her Cabinet did not show. To be sure this reflects as badly on her as it does on him, but he's the one facing election now.

Several potential scandals against the government surfaced, and then almost as quickly subsided. The deliberate leak of the second Auditor General's report casting a less damning view of the government's handling of the G20 funds seemed to put it to bed - for now. However, the real game changer in the campaign was the English language debate. Mr. Harper was not bruised as expected in the debate. Mr. Ignatieff gave some strong moments, but was shaky at times and hurt the perception that he could make a strong Prime Minister. Mr. Layton came out swinging, as usual, but only really hurt Ignatieff. Mr.Duceppe had a terrible performance. He seemed to lack focus, intensity, and was largely hard to understand. The English debate left Mr. Harper as the front runner, and cemented that position.

The french debate was the clincher. Mr. Duceppe was equally unimpressive in the french debate as he was in the English debate. This time, however, he had the most to lose. He was successfully portrayed as a dinosaur. A man from a different era fighting battles that had little relevance to the every day lives of Quebecers. That debate, combined with his lazy campaign, left the battleground for hearts and minds open. The Conservatives could not fill the void. They had aligned early on with Newfoundland and Labrador over the Lower Churchill, which alienated the "nationalistic" vote in Quebec. The federal Liberals were not in a position to capitalize as they were still being blamed for the Clarity Act, and the sponsorship scandal. The only real alternative left for Quebecers to look at was the NDP. Of course it helps that Mr. Layton played up his Quebec birthplace. It also helped that the NDP has been flirting with the pro-separatist unions in Quebec for years. Ultimately, Quebec voters decided to move toward the NDP as their seemingly logical choice.

What that move will result in is not known for certain at this time. However, it will radically alter the post election political scene. Going out on a limb, with a little over a week to go, I'll make the following prediction based on the move recorded in the polls: Conservative 128 seats; NDP 89 seats; Liberal 78 seats; and Bloc 29 seats. What the configuration does is several things: there will not be a coalition; there will be leadership changes in two parties at least; and the next election will likely take place in 2013. My guess is it will be framed on the huge equalization battles coming in the next year or two. There will be a call for a strong central government. One that reflects a national vision, and one that can hold the country together as the provinces wage war against each other to keep the dollars they have, or to get more of someone else's share.

It is a virtual certainty that the federal Liberals would never form a coalition with the NDP that would see an NDPer become Prime Minister. It would, however, give them a chance to change their leadership and give a new leader the time in Parliament to show his stuff. The next federal Liberal leader will be french - that is certain based on the alternating French/English tradition of the Liberal Party of Canada. Look for Justin Trudeau to take over the reigns. The Bloc will change leaders to. Look for them to seek a younger leader to work with the upcoming PQ government in Quebec City. Mr. Charest may be a great guy, and a dedicated Canadian, but he has been mortally wounded. The Conservatives will be in the unenviable position of needing a leadership change without being able to achieve one. It defies the imagination that a Prime Minister of a minority Parliament could be challenged.

As much as I hate to see it unfolding, it appears the NDP is on track to become the Official Opposition. Perhaps there will be a miracle in the last week of the campaign. Jean Chretien, the most popular Prime Minister of modern times, is coming out Wednesday to support Mr. Ignatieff. If anyone can change the course of the election it may be him. However, it appears that people are becoming very decided in their positions, and it may be impossible to sway them at this late stage.

In any case, a prediction is a prediction.

Harper Government's idea of Transparency

I have been watching, like many people, all the apparent breaches of transparency in this government over the last..let's say six months. I have to pinch myself to make sure I'm not having a bad dream. This is a Prime Minister who's early political career, and even his rise to office, were all centred on the populist Reform Party. Born in the prairies, Reform was meant to address all the undemocratic ills of the Federal Government, and return civility (or start some) and transparency to Ottawa. Am I the only one that remembers this? I doubt it. Yet in the last six months we have witnessed, amongst others: the proroging of Parliament; the refusal to release documents regarding the Afghan Detainee issue;  the apparent political summary execution of the Minister of...well Jaffer's wife; and the public announcement from the Commissioner of Access to Information that her Office was being muzzled. Wow, Reform you say. I don't think even Mulroney got away with that - not that he necessarily sought to.

That brings me to today's blog. As some of you may or may not know I have been fighting with the Federal Government, as well as the Chateau Lake Louise ( the big high-end resort in Banff National Park) over the environmental abuse of Lake Louise. Lake Louise is internationally recognized as one of the most beautiful and prestine lakes in the world. It has been given World Heritage status by the United Nations, and is a protected site by both National and International law. That being said, Lake Louise has been environmentally abused by the Chateau Lake Louise now for atleast a decade. Apparently, according to a Senior Warden in the Park, the Chateau was caught dumping sewage into the Lake in the 1970's, and fined. A recent access to information request on anything to do with this incident resulted in a nil return from the government. According to Parks Canada in Ottawa no such records exist. Interesting. Could be that the Warden, a life long employee at the Park was mistaken, I guess, although you would think that someone would  remember something like that.

Then, as a member of the voluntary Advisory Development Board for Banff, Kootenay, Yoho national parks I discovered massive water losses from the Chateau's operation over the last ten years. Essentially, the Chateau takes water from the Lake, treats it, and then consumes it. The production number should be very close to the consumption number or there are water losses somewhere in the system. I found that, by the Chateau's own numbers, that 510,000 m3 of water was missing as of 2008. To put it into context, that is over 25,000 semi tanker loads of water in seven years. During the following stories in the Globe and Mail, and then other National and International media another allegation arose. Several previous employees of the Chateau's water department came forward with the revelation that the Chateau was dumping waste water (treated water not put through the sewer treatment plant) directly into the Creek. Well that is the quick version of events.

Then yesterday my first set of documents finally arrived from Parks Canada under the Access to Information Act. The request was simple: Any and all documents on the water and sewer distribution systems at Lake Louise. One wouldn't think National Security was involved. Sounds like a fairly straight forward request considering the history of the ongoing struggles to get the Chateau to stop abusing the resource. Apparently not. What I received was an 10" by 14" envelope with 43 pages of documents. Unfortunately, 39 of the documents were completely blank. Nothing. Not even a sentence. There was more ink on the Afghan detainee documents shown on TV. What an absolute slap in the face to Canadian Democracy. Reform you say. Transparent you say. What a mockery. Of course I will appeal to the Commissioner, and hopefully some sense will be seen. Apart from the issue of "who is wagging who's tail?", apart from where is the protection for such a site as Lake Louise, where are the basic Canadian's rights?

Mr Harper if this is your idea of democracy, freedom, and liberty - well, your time of accountability is coming. Hopefully, the cost to this country of ours, not just yours, won't be too steep. As the old saying goes:
"Power. Use it, but abuse it, lose it."