Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the
round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're
not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify
them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change
things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the
crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

Steve Jobs
US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 - 2011)

Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Trump is not Stupid

It's fashionable, even expected, to pour scorn on the current President of the United States - Donald Trump. Of course, he brings It upon himself with his unmatched egotistical meanderings. That being said, there is a definite method behind his madness that eludes most political commentators. What Trump is very deliberately doing, albeit from many different directions, is attacking China's attempt to replace the United States as the preeminent economy with the world's new reserve currency.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, China has taken a different tact in its march to world supremacy - the economic route. It transformed itself from an insulated and agrarian society to essentially a quasi-capitalistic sweat shop. For decades the Chinese people slaved in factories to produce the cheapest possible products for primarily American multi-nationals. America became almost deindustrialized as a result. However, the American services economy grew exponentially as a result of cheap Chinese imports. It looked like a win-win for the US and Chinese economies.

However, the Chinese government saved a substantial amount of the funds it earned at the hands of its citizens, and reinvested the funds in US real estate, stocks, bonds and currencies. It did the same in many other countries in the world as well. It has stocked up on massive quantities of gold to back its national currency. It has created its own version of the World Monetary Fund. To make a long story short, the Chinese used discipline to place themselves in the position to replace both the US dollar and the American economy as the primary economic pillars of the world today.

So great has the Chinese effort been, that it now can challenge the US dollar as the primary economic, political, and even military tool in the world. Just very recently China has concluded deals with Russia and Iran to purchase oil and other goods in their national currencies, excluding the US dollar as a necessity for trade. Even more perilous for the Us is China's ambition to create the same agreements throughout Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. In a nutshell, the American Empire is under direct threat by a "communist" country that has beat them at their own game. The solution? Change the game.

Enter Donald Trump. What the majority of the world seems to be missing is that Trump is not some lunatic fanning his ego with schizophrenic economic and military policies. Nothing could be further from the truth. Rather, he is directing the disassembling of the world order the United States created, because they are losing their own game. His strategy is clear: isolate China by any means. Whether its fanciful deals to bribe North Korea's regime away from China's wing, threats of war against Venezuela's government, appeasing Russia to try and sway it away from Beijing, the result is the same: isolate China. By isolating China Trump hopes to stop China's ambitious "Belt and Road" project and stymie a Eurasian takeover of the world economy. It's that simple. Trump's speech in Poland in 2017 very clearly reinforces that belief:

"The fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them at any cost? Do we have the courage to preserve our civilization in the face of those who would subvert it and destroy it?"

This was just a part of his "Churchillian-type" speech to the people of the West from the capital of Poland in 2017, but it raises some immediate and obvious questions: Is there a threat to the survival of the West that we are unaware of; is it necessary to defend them at "any cost"; and is our civilization under immediate threat of extinction? You could be forgiven for thinking these words were some kind of attempt by Trump to sound Churchillian or Kennedy-like in the depths of the Cold War, but the truth is we aren't in the depth of a Cold War are we? At least not one we are aware of in any case. What we are in is the final stages of American dominance of global affairs using economic tools to foist itself upon the peoples of the world. So if that qualifies as the end of civilization, well, then I suppose we are almost there.

The truth is, like any other politician, Trump is the front man for those in the back ground, or "backroom" as we say here in Canada. It's worth noting that at one point or another his entire cabinet seems to reflect every branch of the US military. It's also worth noting that he threatens countries with maximum consequences, but holds out credence for those that follow his line. So it has been worth watching as he pursues a trade war with China, despite China's attempts to placate him. China now appears to have learned the lesson that they are in fact the strategic target of the US, and as such Trump will go all the way with them. What we in the rest of the world need to understand about Trump is that he is not the "dotard" of the political realm, but rather a very deliberate person doing a very calculated thing, with every intention of taking it all the way. "All the way" means if the economic war does not bring China, and by ricochet Eurasia, to its knees then actual war will follow - "...at any cost?".

Trump is, as they say, dumb as a fox. While the world may be dazzled by his approach, it should not fail to see his aim. Trump, and specifically those behind Trump (read the US "Military Industrial Complex") aim to preserve US hegemony over the world, and to do so they must rip apart the current world order they built and replace it with another. So, belittle and scoff at Trump all you want, but be warned he is most definitely not the court jester you may imagine him to be.  






Monday, October 9, 2017

The Bitcoin Mirage

Let's be honest with each other here, Bitcoin is more of a home science experiment gone amok than a legitimate form of currency. In fact, Bitcoin far more resembles a classic Ponzi scheme than it does a currency, or a monetary system. It was created by a phantom figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto, whose identity has never been confirmed. The Japanese translation of his name roughly equates to "Central Source Wisdom (or Reason) in Japanese.

The basics of Bitcoin resemble a version of a video game you might play from your PlayStation. To enter you must get a "wallet". To create wealth you must "mine" Bitcoin. The mining process was easier at the beginning of the Bitcoin system - known as the "Genesis Block". However, the Bitcoin program was designed to make mining more and more difficult as more and more people joined the process. It has become so difficult that many groups of Bitcoin 'miners" have joined together in pools to share rewards, rather than strike out on their own and have nothing to show for it after months of work. Hence, the Ponzi scheme nature of Bitcoin. Easy money early, but as the pyramid grows the easy money gets to be less and less. Imagine yourself playing a simple video game that has you set up mines here and there, and transporting the "product" back to your fort. As your product grows you can cash it in for stronger fort walls, better soldiers, etc. You get the idea. Essentially, this rather basic concept is the Bitcoin concept.

Beyond the video gaming and Ponzi nature of Bitcoin, there are numerous, serious fundamental flaws in the concept. Firstly, and most importantly, Bitcoin is a decentralized currency. In other words, it is not regulated by anything other than a computer program - essentially. There is no governmental control. There is no central authority like a central bank. In this sense, Bitcoin is almost an anarchy currency - with the important exception that every single transaction of Bitcoin is recorded. Fundamentally any currency, whether gold, salt or paper currency, has as its primary objective to regulate the consumption of resources by people. Given that currency regulates consumption by citizens, and citizens belong to nations, and nations control territory, and territory produces resources, it has always been the case that nations have there own currency - or in the case of the European Union a supra-national currency. The one constant feature is these nations, and even the EU, have governments responsible to their citizens for policy, including the regulation of resource consumption. What Bitcoin attempts to do is take away the regulation of consumption from the state, including the responsibility for that regulation, and hand it over to a computer program that is not responsible for its decisions to anyone. A truly bizarre state of affairs for the human race - one which you might have seen in a sci-fi movie from time to time.

The most dangerous concept of Bitcoin is that it is not rooted in value, but rather transactions. In the Bitcoin world, transactions create value. Essentially, it has no intrinsic value. By contrast, gold is a commodity that is very limited in quantity, is physical, and is almost indestructible. What Bitcoin does is actually emphasize the basic fundamentals of our current financial state. The world now runs on debt rather than value. In this way it regulates how much each person consumes. For example, if you want to purchase a boat, but do not have the necessary cash to do so, you must have enough debt room to borrow to purchase that boat. More often than not, in todays world, you have very little physical wealth to back that loan. However, allowing you to buy that boat now, as opposed to when you have enough dollars to do so, allows companies to keep selling, growing, and so on. Bitcoin takes that a step further. Instead of having debt that is measured in dollars, which have now lost most of their value due to unsupported borrowing, a new Bitcoin system will not require any physical constraint to consumption.

Bitcoin represents a new generation of irresponsible economics, designed primarily to serve the individual rather than the collective society. Its inevitable result is the stripping of social constraints on consumption. For instance, medicare may be paid by taxes in one country, but another country may require private payment for the same services. In a Bitcoin world the transactions for such services would be between the doctor and the patient, leaving no room for societal values. In this sense, Bitcoin represents an extreme Libertarian view of the world. After all, if you take Bitcoin at face value, and take it to its logical conclusion, a Bitcoin world would be dominated solely by Bitcoin transactions - the world currency. If this isn't the case why does Bitcoin exist? It's the old "half-pregnant" argument. There is either a recognized crypto currency in the world or there isn't. If there is such an instrument, then the world recognizes that this currency based on a computer program is legitimate. If that is legitimate, then the current currency model must no longer be legitimate. There cannot be two simultaneous currencies in the world - one which is controlled by central banks and one which is not.

Our financial system is, at the moment, is unsupported and unsustainable. It is based on nothing other than debt. China, Russia and a few other countries are trying to reign in consumption of resources by tying the value of currencies to something meaningful and measurable - gold. China has basically banned Bitcoin operations in its country, and that is a wise move from one of the wisest societies on earth. Instead, it is implementing discipline by implementing a gold standard to measure its currency by. Russia is moving in the same direction. Personally, I see the Bitcoin movement as an attempt to circumvent the direction China and Russia have been moving in. It's simply a very poorly veiled attempt to convert the American dollar as the world's main reserve currency to Bitcoin. By doing so the Americans hope to halt the reestablishment of the gold standard which, if implemented on a world-wide basis, would render the US dollar almost worthless and see the Chinese currency become the world's leading reserve currency. No doubt the Chinese see this themselves as they banned Bitcoin.

The current price for a single bitcoin is $6,025.06 or about four times the price of an ounce of gold. All the gold mined in the world, since recorded history at least, could fill three Olympic sized swimming pools. So what makes Bitcoin so much more valuable than one of the least available commodities in the world? The answer is nothing. It's sheer speculation by the same folks that normally run up the stock market. In fact, they are attempting to create a market where one isn't needed. The reason: greed. It's like a new gold rush. Except it isn't gold. It isn't anything but a play on a simple video game that rewards those in early, and leaves the last arrivals holding the bag. Do yourself a big favour, see Bitcoin for what it is - a mirage.






Saturday, February 13, 2016

Steps from Armageddon

Unfortunately, it now appears the world is heading to that long prophesized war in the Middle East that we have all feared - the battle of Armageddon. The Bible describes it as a massive war in the Middle East where millions of soldiers are consumed. It begins with Russia coming out of communism (Godlessness) and doing God's bidding by taking on the forces of the Eagle (the US). It predicts that Russia will defeat the combined might of the US at the battle of Armageddon, including the Israeli army, and then there will be a large earthquake which will consume the Russian forces there. Forgive me if the biblical interpretations aren't 100%, but you get the idea.

As a young fellow I used to wonder how the "Bear" (Russia) could possibly end up in the Middle East with massive armies. It didn't seem to make sense, However, today, we are mere moments from that exact circumstance. There is no denying it any further.

In my opinion the war in Syria and Ukraine and elsewhere around the globe has to do with one thing, and one thing only - the US dollar. Simplistic as that may sound, it has been obvious as the nose on your face that China and Russia have managed to undermine American world economic dominance. The replacing of the US dollar with the Chinese Yuan, or a Yuan backed world currency, has been an ongoing issue since at least 2010 when it was first publicly advocated at the Davos world economic forum in Switzerland. China's moves since then have shown a steady path toward that goal. The Eurasian economic, and in many ways military bloc, have developed to the strategic level. The Chinese and Russians are using their reserves of US dollars to purchase hard assets (ie: Chicago Stock Exchange, Canadian tar sands, etc), and more importantly to subsidize the economic consequences of their actions. For example, while the West applied massive sanctions against Russia for the Ukraine situation, Russia simply turned to China for financial backing. The Chinese used their US reserves for the purpose. And so it goes.

The truth of the matter is this: the West has lost the economic war. It's over. It has been for awhile. The West is simply "dog paddling". Signs of this are: negative interest rates by Western central banks; zero or near zero inflation rates and economic growth; and the inability of traditional stimuli to fire up economies. It's over. We simply sit on the very cusp of complete economic collapse. The same applies to the Eurasian economies, except they are far less indebted than we are (Russia's government debt to GDP ratio is 16%, Canada is 86.51 %, the US 102.98%)  That part of the war is lost. The US/Saudi deal of the 1970's that allowed the US dollar to replace gold as the reserve currency is also undone. Saudi has been made redundant by technology for oil recovery, and by Russian and American production. In other words, the American cartel on oil has been irreversibly broken.

So all this leads us to today. One economically decaying super power facing the inevitable consequences of its own economic lack of discipline facing the rising contenders. The battlefield is switching to arms from dollars. The battlefields are the Middle East and the Pacific Rim. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, one a NATO ally, the other a US oil ally, are mere hours from starting the events that will lead to the battle that "consumes millions". A Turkish invasion of northern Syria is guaranteed. Today Saudi Arabia transferred fighter jets to Turkey to assist. That alliance also points to the almost certain invasion of southern Iraq by Saudi Arabia. That in turn will lead to the direct intervention of Iran against Saudi. If you ever watched Harry Potter, this is the real game of "Wizard's Chess". The Americans will come with their full military might to intervene (if you believe the Bible - which I do). Israel will for the most part stay pat and watch it unfold. However, even Israel will be turned on once the Americans have been defeated (if you believe the Bible - which I do).

The only question really left in my mind is: " Is this a bad thing, or is this simply God's will?". If it's God's will, and the Bible certainly says it is, then it's not a bad thing. Myself, I kind of hoped that humanity could rise above this kind of result, but that simply doesn't appear to be the case.


Thursday, November 26, 2015

It's Hard Being a Liberal Right Now



WHAT GOOD WILL IT BE FOR A MAN TO GAIN THE WORLD, YET FORFEIT HIS SOUL?

Normally, when your party is close to an electoral victory, a party supporter is quite happy with the state of affairs. That doesn't apply to me this time around. Back in 2011 when I joined the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party it was a much different place. Back then a Liberal was a Liberal, was a Liberal. There were no Tories in sight. In fact there were very few Liberals in sight. It was the core supporters of the Liberals that came to meetings or conventions. A small core.The party rested somewhere around 14% in the polls.

Yet, it had soul. The people gathered had purpose and spirit. They were 100% against things like Muskrat Falls and duplicitous PC conduct. That was a principled group of people in it for the good fight. Today things are much different. It really began when Yvonne Jones decided suddenly, just before the 2011 election, to bolt and rather quickly become involved in federal politics in Labrador. There were plenty of rumours she had been offered a pay off to leave, but they were just rumours.

Then, with approximately 15 minutes left in the filing deadline, Brian Tobin faithful Kevin Aylward jumped into the race and filled Jone's place as leader.That was the first indication things were taking a backroom turn. Shortly afterwords a $10,000 a plate dinner in Toronto was set up by Tobin for Aylward to raise election funds. Mining interests in Labrador figured prominently, and their pitch for Muskrat Falls became a shove. Thereafter, the Liberal fight to halt Muskrat Falls began to whither.

Fast forward to today. Dwight Ball is now the leader, and with him has come an exclusive-type of leadership that centers on a very small circle within the party. Many Liberals, especially old-time Liberals, aren't happy with being virtually shut out of the Liberals "new vision" and campaign. There are whispers. Plenty of whispers. So many in fact that it has become hard to distinguish between genuine complaints of autocratic leadership, and not so upstanding attacks from internal leadership hopefuls like Bennett and Antle. Now of course all that will be denied from the highest mount, but it has become very real.

Layered upon the internal dissent of eternally ambitious people, is the stealth election campaign. Ball is doing his damnedest to dance around all the minefields laying before him. He hasn't been upfront with the people on the real state of the province's finances, even though an economics student with no access could clearly see the mess ahead. Instead, he has chosen to place power over honesty. Sad when you consider the people are jettisoning the PCs from power for the very same reason.

Yes, it's a sad state when the Liberal Party here is merely imitating the departing PCs. It's sad to see people like Paul Lane, disgraced stacker and fixer of on-line polls and radio shows, leave the PCs for the Liberals. It's harder yet to see him embraced. After all, wasn't he the most savage of all PC members and defenders? And that's just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. It's painful to watch the lawyers and law firms jockey for place within the Liberal Party. Down to a man (and woman), the vultures are circling for the crumbs that are left of what was an oil inheritance for the people of the province - now squandered.

Finally, as if by some Shakespearean twist, it was very painful to watch Ball offer empty promises, at best, during the last televised leaders debate. It had the aura of the future surrounding it. It had the leap of faith, even though you know full well there is nothing to have faith in, kind of feel to it. It had the "I'm taking power and I have no earthly idea how I'm going to fix this mess" kind of feel to it. It was disingenuous, and insulting to the intelligence.

Whatever the electoral result is come November 30th, one thing is crystal clear - there will be no Trudeau moment. The promise of a more just society isn't even on the cue cards, let alone the heart. There is no promise of "sunny ways". Nope, none of that. Instead there are tightly gripped jaw bones, fake smiles, red jackets, etc. You get the idea. The provincial Liberal Party, as it stands today, is a disheartening imitation of the PC machine it has ambitions to replace. Discarded are the lessons of the PC downfall by those that are tripping over themselves to grasp at the empty cookie jar. Man, it's hard being a Liberal right now.  

Saturday, February 7, 2015

End of Days for World Order

Our world today didn't happen in the last few months, or even years. It's the natural consequence of a financial system that in many ways can be understood as a "ponzi scheme". A ponzi scheme starts with a basic assumption that wealth can be built from nothing. The first into the scheme benefit the most, and as the scheme grows the returns diminish until finally there is not enough money going in to pay out those that are owed - and it collapses. That in a nut shell is the nature and state of our world wide financial system, and thus our civilization.

Every national currency represents a "right to consume". There are limited amounts of resources the earth can produce, so the limit to consuming them is represented by currencies. Since World War II national and international economics have been driven by debt - a promise to pay currency at some point in the future for resources consumed today. In effect the promise to pay, as opposed to actually paying,  has allowed nations to live far beyond what they can produce compared to what they consume. In other words, debt has fueled and allowed the ponzi scheme to continue. In other words, debt has become currency, and currency has become a tool to measure debt.

The greatest enabler of debt, and the supreme master of the ponzi scheme is without doubt the US stock market. As it goes, so goes the national banks in each country - and area banks like the European Central Bank. The killer if you will is that the stock market has become addicted to cheap debt from central banks. With that cheap debt the wheelers and dealers of the market place can leverage, buy, sell, and make currency. Without that cheap debt profits shrink and investors can't meet interest payments. Without that cheap debt the system collapses as company's earnings don't meet margins required to pay their debt obligations. In other words, there isn't enough revenue coming in to cover the interest costs of their debt, and they collapse.

This is where we are at today - on a world scale. The ponzi scheme is living out its last days. Central banks have lowered their prime borrowing rates to below 1%, and in many cases a half or quarter of that. Some call that "quantitative easing". "Easing" meaning the lessening of pressure to repay currency for debt. In other words, staving off the inevitable pay the piper day. The logic is that the cheaper the prime rate set by central banks, the cheaper the interest rates set by banks, which allows consumers and corporations to continue consuming at an unabated pace - and therefore allowing the world economy to do the same.

However, what happens when individuals, corporations, and countries become so leveraged with debt that they can no longer borrow to finance their consumption - no matter the interest rate? That is the proverbial "tipping point". The point of no return. Very recently the Bank of Canada, and even the European Central Bank cut back their prime lending rates - in Canada's case to .75%. What happens when it goes to zero and yet can no longer spur or maintain economic growth? It has to go to zero. There is no other way. At this stage of the game debt is so high that it would take individuals, corporations and countries decades of non-borrowing to reverse the need for cheap debt. If that were to happen for even a year the world economy, led by the stock market, would collapse into depression. Hence the end of the ponzi scheme.

We are very close to that day now. Any significant event will trigger panic in the stock market and international debt markets. A major war or a default could quite likely be the trigger point. Greece for example could be that trigger point. So could Ukraine. Both are European countries so to speak, and both are members in some way of the European Economic Community. Without a massive debt infusion within a month Ukraine will financially collapse. Its currency has already collapsed. Greece has already been bailed out, and forced into that position of non-borrowing that I mentioned above would be necessary to avoid a collapse. They're in it now, and they're looking for a way out. Will they accept a kinder, gentler bailout from Russia or China? It's quite possible. Will they leave the Euro, or be forced to leave the Euro? That's even more possible.

The thing with Greece is it represents the future for us all. At some point we are all going to reach the position Greece is in. If Greece defaults on its debt the message becomes debt is not a guarantee to control consumption. And, if it can't really control consumption, or responsibility for over consuming, then in reality it is meaningless as a control mechanism. That is where we reach the trigger point. If the guarantee to pay one's debt for currency used, and goods consumed, becomes meaningless then so does the world economic order. In reality, that is what Greece represents. The geo-strategic question remains - will Russia and/or China bail out the current world economic order by bailing out Greece, or will they let Greece implode to foster their own currencies as the bench mark?

Both China and Russia have minuscule national debts compared to almost every country in the world. They are positioned to pickup the pieces of the ponzi scheme from what can only be imagined as a desperate world. How will they change the nature of economic order? What discipline will they impose on consumption and debt to ensure a similar collapse does not happen again? All this is yet to play out, but it will. That you can take to the bank.

   

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Sliding toward Deflation

Think of the world as an engine designed and built to run in a certain way, and at a certain speed. The fuel of the engine is growth.  The chemistry of the fuel is debt. Then imagine one half of the world (the developed countries) running at full speed for 60 years, while the other half of the world (Asia, Africa, and South America) idling. Because our half of the world has been running full speed, we have used the most debt to power our engines, and the world economy has built itself around that fact. Now imagine that so much debt has been used to fuel the engine that it is almost depleted. Meanwhile the other half of the world is just warming up its engine and has plenty of potential debt to consume. What is the logical consequence? One falls while the other soars.

Now superimpose the unfolding China/Russia/BRIC economic order that is forming to reflect that reality. Let's call it the "New Club". Roughly designed to resemble the Soviet days of trading between countries to the exclusion of others, the New Club is rapidly building a new engine. One that attempts to capitalize on each countries strengths and satisfying each countries needs. If that sounds familiar consider Karl Marx's famous borrowed slogan " From each according to his ability, to each according to his need". Essentially, this is the new slogan of the New Club. China has the currency and the manpower. Russia has the natural resources, technology, and the know how. India has the population and science. South America has specific resources. Africa has population and need.

Together, these countries are forming a new world order. They have combined resources to create a new IMF that will compete with the old western IMF to loan money to areas like Africa and South America. They will control the debt that fires those engines. Russia, China and India (almost 50% of the world population) have entered into formal agreements to use their own currencies to pay for resources from each other. They are excluding the US dollar from their market place as an economic foundation. Making it obsolete. They are reaching deeply into Africa in fierce competition with the US to develop that continent as a place to do business. They are quickly becoming the savior for many South American countries who have tapped out their debt in the Old Club and need a rescue line.

Of course, when one grows the other dies, and the other would be the western world, or the "Old Club". Our ability to consume and pay debt has over reached its maximum. That is reflected in the over valued prices we pay for everything compared to what would be paid for the same object in the Club. In some European countries that has led to such things as inter-generational mortgages on homes. In the US it led to the "housing bubble" in 2008. The price we pay for fuel, compared to the actual price per barrel on the international market, is a good indicator of how skewed the economic reality is. While world oil prices plummet, prices at the pump don't. They stay artificially high. The same can be said for the stock markets. They are valued at more than their 2008 pre-crash worth, despite the indebtedness/under-performance of the corporations listed on them. In other words, there is a space between where they should be at in pure economic terms, and where they exist today. An artificial bubble. An artificial economy. Prices inflated to try and maintain our way of life, our government coffers, and our debt.

While there was only one game in town, that game of artificial economy could be maintained to one degree or another. There would be cyclical recessions to try and balance debt vs income vs prices from time to time, but the system could carry on. But, more dollars printed to maintain that growth created inflation in prices.Our system continued to grow fed on inflation rather than real economic wealth. We created a society based on the artificial. Now we are facing a New Club that, for the most part, will not. As the two realities start to compete the Old Club will lose market share for its products, and a glut will create deflation. 

As sales slide, and corporations within the Old Club try to adjust their production downward, each country's GDP begins to shrink - in other words deflate. That leads to serious consequences for an economic order built on growth fueled by debt. A good current example of this is Germany's recent slide. Germany is the economic engine of Europe, and as its GDP continues to fall so do the hopes of the rest of the continent. Another good example is long term bond costs. Muskrat Falls financing was secured for 50 years at less then 3% interest. Indicative that the banks understand what is coming. What else can explain that length of commitment for such a small return on investment. Perhaps one of the most clear examples of things to come is the Brazilian company Rio Tinto. While North American iron ore mines close, scale back or simply don't develop, Rio Tinto is increasing production by 25%. All these corporations compete on the international market, yet they have two starkly different approaches. Perhaps the key to understanding  this is one corporation is in a BRIC country, and a strong m,ember of the new club, while the others are stuck in the old. 

There are signs all around us if we choose to really see them. The world is changing - for the better for some, and the opposite for others. Reality, or deflation as a measure of it, is coming sooner rather than later. There is really no way for governments to prepare for it financially. Instead, and perhaps a very real indication of intent, police forces through out the western world have been armed like military organizations. Like the banks, our governments see the inevitable deflation of our economies, and understand the social chaos that must follow. At that point order will take precedence over rights. It will be a new world for the Old Club.