The Phoney War

We are living at a time of phoney war - at least that's my theory. A phoney war is a period where war-like moves are made, but the major powers of the day are not yet engaged in actual fighting. The most recent example of this was Hitler's moves in Europe before 1939 - like the Czech and Slovak Republics, etc. Acts that really ought to be considered acts of war, but for "pragmatic" reasons the world over looked them in hopes they would satisfy the aggressor. Those moves are happening today.

Consider Turkey for a moment. Turkey is at once fighting the Kurds on its own territory, and in northern Iraq, supporting ISIS and others against the Kurds in Syria. The problem in the geo-strategic sense is that Turkey is asserting its own perceived interest at the expense of world peace. It is breaking international law by fighting a "hybrid war" against Syria, and is on the verge of making that a very real conventional war in Syria - along with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is making similar moves in Yemen. In the Yemen case, Saudi has already invaded with conventional forces so there was not much pretense there of a phoney war.

In the big picture, however, today we are in a world scale phoney war. For some time I have thought on the reasoning the United States has "betrayed" its long time partner Saudi Arabia and allowed fracking to undermine the world price of oil. Purely examining today's events might leave you scratching your head. The US breaks its long time agreement with the Saudis, world control of oil for using US dollars in its purchase and sale. However, take a step outside the box, look at the many places of near war in the rest of the world, and a very real strategic move may be afoot.

My theory is this: the US is weaning itself off Saudi oil, and putting itself in a position of self-sufficiency, to insulate itself against a Middle east war that will see Saudi, Iraq and Iran lose the ability to export oil. Really its the only sensible conclusion to come to. The transition period was the last five years. Mass fracking in the US has resulted in over 4800 capped oil wells. Over production of oil has resulted in mass storage of oil reserves. Together, the result is a stockpile of strategic oil in the US, but also in Russia. The two big foes are insulating themselves against oil shortages at the same time in this phony war.

If that theory holds true, then I would expect a Middle East war to break out really at any time. Certainly the flash points are Iraq and Syria. Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and some other minor allies will make a move on Sunni Iraq and northern Syria at the same time leaving rival Iran to address two fronts at once. Clearly that will bring in the Americans and Russians - although I would bank on the Russians being there in large numbers first. In any case, the damage to the oil fields of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia would be on a massive scale. Given the technology and weapons possessed by both sides, massive damage to oil infrastructure is only a logical result.

It's funny how today's phoney war eerily points toward the biblical prophecies of the Battle of Armageddon. It's something that nobody wants to think is possible, but the signs seem to be growing all the time. It's as if we have a little self-destruct mechanism and are programming ourselves toward this fate. Of course you could always argue it's the will of God as expressed in the Bible. We have a hard time seeing it from that point of view, because we can't believe God would wish that upon us. But, God is God for a reason. We have human minds which are but a spec in the big picture. That being said, I hope I'm wrong in my observations, and analysis. Nobody should want or thirst over a phoney war. They always lead to the bigger one.  

Kurdish Roulette

Once again the Kurds find themselves in the middle of things. Back during the first Operation Desert Storm vs Iraq, the Kurds of Northern Iraq rebelled against Hussein and fought with the allies. There were promises made to the Turks that the allies would protect them, and guarantee their autonomy -  in Northern Iraq only. The US imposed a "no-fly-zone" on the airspace above the Kurds for awhile after the war, but, and it's a big but, they abandoned the Kurds on the ground. Hussein took the opportunity to exact severe revenge. In Desert Storm 2, and with Hussein defeated, the US established a state of autonomy for the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Turkey was unimpressed.

To understand Turkey's almost hatred of the Kurds it's necessary to understand that the Kurds claim the southern, mountainous region of Turkey as a part of their homeland. That home also includes Northern Iraq and North Eastern Syria. In other words, they are in the middle of it. Here is a picture of their "homeland":

From their autonomous area in Northern Iraq the Kurds have moved west, and into Syria. Ostensibly they are fighting President Assad of Syria, along with several radical Islamist groups. In reality they engaged an overly ambitious ISIS army that attempted to conquer their Iraq territory - until the US air force put an end to it. Now the Kurds fight with those same ISIS formations to overthrow Assad. But is their goal to overthrow Assad, or is it more like carving  North East Syria up, and adding it to their "historic homeland"? I suggest the latter to be true.

Turkey seems to understand this ambition extremely well. It has fought a decades old guerrilla-type war against the Kurds to keep its territory intact. Now, with the Kurds again working with the allies to topple another middle eastern head of state, Turkey has become very alarmed. So much so that today it released the following statement:

"The PYD (Kurds) has been getting closer with both the United States and Russia of late. We view the PYD as a terrorist group and we want all countries to consider the consequences of their cooperation."

In other words, the Kurds are an enemy of the state of Turkey, and cooperation/legitimization of their interests will be considered an act of war by Turkey. Now some may say that is reading into it too much, but consider the US response - the withdrawal of all Patriot missile systems from Turkey today. Those systems were meant to safeguard turkey from Syrian aircraft, but they also kept the peace (relatively) between Syria and Turkey during the 5 year old conflict. Now there is no such buffer. In another development today, it was reported Turkish forces, equipped with armor and bulldozers, entered Northern Syria. Right where the Kurds are. You get the idea. Turkey is putting its national interests first, which are defensive in nature, before those of its allies or adversaries - economic and otherwise.

Meanwhile, the Russians are faced with a predicament. On the one hand they have no beef with the Kurds, and perhaps even see the Kurds as being useful in the interim to fight other Islamic groups in Syria. Perhaps they have even done a quiet handshake deal with the Kurds to look after them with some territory in Syria if the Kurds play ball in saving Assad. That wouldn't be too surprising. The problem is that to keep that promise would mean going to war with Turkey - the 4th largest military in the world. All very complicated and messy. That means the Kurds become expendable at the right time, and there is all smiles around the table of great powers within the region.

That in a nutshell has been the nature of the Kurds dilemma for along time - too small a player swimming against a tide of geo-political interests that only match theirs on a temporary basis. Each time their young people lay down their lives in this or that conflict, with the ever lasting hope that a great power will deliver them their complete homeland as compensation, they get betrayed. The nature of the game known as Kurdish Roulette.