Russia's Battle Plan

As the last 3 weeks have ground on it has become clear that Russia's primary objective in Ukraine is two-fold: Firstly it is to over throw the over throwers in Ukraine; ans secondly it is territorial. For the last three weeks the Russians have applied a "Chinese water torture" type of strategy. They could have occupied Crimea and captured or destroyed the Ukrainian ships and garrisons there within a day if they wanted to. Instead they slowly enveloped the bases, blockaded the ships, and reinforced - at a snail's pace. What does that do? It prolongs the suffering. Instead of a quick execution, the Russians are in effect torturing Ukraine. They are destabilizing the country and at the same time paralyzing the West.

The point of this post is how what will be the territorial objectives of Russia in Ukraine and how will they execute. There has been a great amount of spin from both sides about Ukraine's unity. One side says there is total unity, and the other says the country is divided along linguistic lines. Below are some maps that give you an idea how Ukraine breaks down geographically:

The 2004 election:

 

The 2006 election:

The 2007 election:

The trend is pretty clear, Ukraine is a country divided at least politically. Then consider the linguistic breakdown of Ukraine:

It's very clear that Ukrainians are divided politically by the language of origin. That goes along way in explaining why the first act of the new Ukrainian parliament was to remove Russian as an official language of Ukraine.

Not as important as territory, but still an important factor to the Russians, is the booty that an invasion of Ukraine can yield. Here is a look at the industrial assets of Ukraine:

Mines,oil, gas fields, and coal:

  

 You will note that the vast majority of Ukraine's developed natural resources are in the east and southeast of Ukraine.

Nuclear facilities:

You will note here that 75% of Ukraine's nuclear generation capabilities are located in the east and south east of Ukraine - while the disabled Chernobyl is just in the western boundary.

Then consider the military defence of Ukraine. Even its military commands are broken down in a similar fashion:

Bottom line - Ukraine is divided along linguistic, political, economic, and even military command lines.

The Ukrainian military forces are laid out:

Ukrainian military bases are laid out:

Ukrainian Air Defense bases are laid out:

Ukraine's highway system:

Although Ukraine's military is somewhat spread through the country, most of its strategic forces are located in the western portion of the country. This could better preserve them from immediate Russian attack in the east and southeast, but leaves the both very vulnerable to quick Russian occupation.

Strategically, militarily, economically and politically Ukraine is exposed to occupation and separation in its south and east. The question is whether Russia will decide to take these areas to support its goal of territorial buffer zones with the West. The logical conclusion, given Russia's military and political moves is yes. 

The first move was securing the Crimea. This takes care of a number of issues for Russia. Firstly, it allows Russia to transfer the S-300 and 400 air superiority missile systems into Crimea, bringing all of south east Ukraine into their range. That allows Russia to clear Ukrainian skies of any airborne threats - such as planes, helicopters, and missiles of all types. Russia achieves immediate air superiority. Taking the Crimea, and blockading the majority of Ukraine's fleet in port, clears the way for amphibious operations against areas like Odessa that would otherwise be compromised by a large naval presence. Finally, Crimea flanks eastern Ukraine, creates a second front, and gives the Russians a secure start line for a southern invasion. Therefore, I see Crimea as a necessary piece in the invasion puzzle, and not as a "crown jewel" that Russia has craved to own.

The second move has been positioning and battle drilling troops along Ukraine's eastern border. For a military that has not seen conflict of any serious scope for a generation, preparation is crucial to success. Military reports indicate that Russian airborne forces have been deployed in Crimea and along the eastern Ukraine border. The strength reported is divisional, and is likely the 7th Guards Airborne Division normally situate in the Moscow area. Also, light armored personal carriers (APC's) and tanks, designed for the airborne to be dropped with them, have been sighted on transport trains headed into the area, and on the roads - also headed to the eastern Ukraine border. This element is crucial. 

There are a number of bridges in south east Ukraine that would need to be secured prior to advancing armor and infantry arriving. If the Russians don't secure these, an advance could get bogged down behind rivers. Expect to see airborne drops east of Odessa all the way to just north of Crimea, and along the Dnipro River which separates eastern and western Ukraine. This will serve the dual purpose of securing bridges for advancing troops and trapping elements of the Ukrainian military placed in the east for defence.

Armor will be a big factor in this action, as will APCs. Ukraine has vast plains suited perfectly for fast tank warfare and fast moving mechanized infantry. The Russians have moved vast numbers of tanks and APC's to the eastern border. Look for the Russians to send armor columns to Kharkov, Donetsk,  Luhansk,  Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and possibly Kiev. 

The south east Ukraine will see more artillery, air, mechanized infantry, marine and airborne operations. The geography of the area, and the closeness to naval and air bases in Crimea, make these options ideal for the capture of Odessa and the south east.

The occupation of east and south east Ukraine will take less than a week. When it's over everything will have changed. Ukraine, on top of its already dire economic circumstance, will have lost a vast majority of its natural resources. Its electric power grid will be significantly diminished. It will be land locked and half the size it was. Its military will be either destroyed or captured. Its civilian population will be in a state of chaos, and the Russians will likely achieve their goal of removing this group from power. That could allow them to leave.

Or, they could stay. If the Russians stayed they would have created a land locked buffer zone between them and NATO. Significantly, they would surround what's left of Ukraine on three sides - making it permanently weak. In addition, they would completely control the Black Sea, and solidify themselves between Turkey and the rest of NATO. 

Economic sanctions are not a factor in this equation. Russia has the lowest debt ratio to GDP of any of the actors, and any of its moves will cause chaos in western economies beyond the scale Russia could be affected. It is not the oligarchs in Russia that decide if Putin stays or goes. It's the other way around. Banking on this would be wishful thinking. Whether Russia stays or goes in Ukraine depends on whether it wants to re-position strategically or whether it wants to alter the world economic order at this time. Personally, I lean to a Russian occupation of the east and south east, with some areas choosing to join Russia permanently. An occupation gives Russia so many tools to influence world events that it is almost irresistible to the chess playing bunch down at the Kremlin.  

     

Real Politic Russian Style

Putin is not a genius. He doesn't have to be.

The US and Europe tried to use economic warfare to take Ukraine out of the Russian sphere of influence. They tried to outbid Russia for Ukraine loyalty with European Economic Union membership, and an accompanying military allegiance as well. That suited those in western Ukraine, however, the East is a different story. The Europeans and Americans wanted to fight this war on the only field they could win it - the economic one. The Russians went through the tools of diplomacy, and found a different one - the military one. It's really that simple. This isn't rocket science.

Despite two decades of nauseating chest pounding, the Americans never won the Cold War. The Russians and Chinese simply decided a game of chicken with then US president Ronald Reagan wasn't worth it. They switched to economic warfare instead. Russia being the resource and technology warehouse, and China being the industrial and manufacturing warehouse. Now, today, Russia's national debt is a puny 7% of GDP, and China is set to become the number one economy in the world. That didn't happen by accident. It's also no coincidence that, despite their new "economic societies", their geopolitical goals have not changed. They just used a different horse to get there.

Yes, it's not the Russians and Chinese that don't get it. Frankly, it's the West. We've spent two decades building world trade that has almost singularly benefited Russia and Asia, and racked up massive debt for the Western World. And debt matters. Take the example of Henry the Eight, King of England. His banning of the Catholic Church, and creation of the Church of England, funneled massive wealth into England (that would otherwise have gone to Rome) and Elizabeth I used that wealth to expand the Empire. As did successive others. Dollars and debt affect nations, empires and war.

So, bringing it back to Ukraine, the Russians weren't prepared to see their military buffer zone change sides. It's a matter of national interest. It always has been for Russia, and for the West not to see that before they tried to outbid Russia for Ukraine's allegiance is almost unbelievable. So Russia set off massive military exercises and poured troops of one kind or another into the Crimea. They didn't do just that though. They took air force bases with their expensive Russian built fighters stuck on the ground in Russian hands. They scuttled a massive old battleship at the mouth of the Ukrainian naval base stranding seven of Ukraine's warships. These are big ticket items. After all, Ukraine owes Russia about $2 billion for natural gas used, but not paid for.

They did it all without firing a shot. Putin has arranged for a referendum to be held in Crimea in less than two weeks, and his parliament is pushing through a bill defining requirements for ex-states that want to become part of Russia. All the while thumbing his nose at the West, and leaving his options open to do the same to Eastern Ukraine.

The West's response is correspondingly without any teeth at all. Send a ship into the Black Sea. Send a few fighters to the Baltic States. Issue declaration after declaration. Threaten sanctions. The fact is, there are many western based corporations with big investments in Russia, not the least of which are American and British oil companies. So Russia has the mutual destruction button ready to push - the economic one that is. China and Russia have the same capability militarily against the West, and the West vs. them. There is no advantage to any party, except Russia has the military force ready to go into Europe. That is a fact. It also has the capacity to destroy the European economy over night by shutting off the taps to natural gas. Many people say that Russia would not do that, because it would suffer as well. However, people that say that are looking at the equation the wrong way.

Take China for instance. When the 2008 economic meltdown occurred, China laid off 250 million people and shipped them from the cities back to their rural communities. No revolution. No protest. No problem. The Russians are the same and have proved it in the past. They sacrificed 25 million dead in the second world war and, far more than any other ally, they bled the German army white - without which the Second world War would have in all likelihood ended differently. So, instead of viewing Russia, and for that matter China, as if they were American modeled economies and societies, the West needs to truly understand how bad its's been beaten at its own game, and what position that leaves us. My take - we are reaping today what we have sown.