The Tyranny of the Majority

It seems that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are on the verge of breaking the old rule : "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein". Over and over again people vote en mass for one party, get royally betrayed and disillusioned, swap colours, and do it all over again for the other side. Each time huge majorities are given to the winning side, while the opposing side sits with a rump of 3-5 MHAs. The old saying is that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Yet, here we go again.

According to all the polls the Liberals have between 70-80% of the decided vote. What that means is 40 seats for the Liberals, 0 seats for the NDP and ditto for the PCs. When that happens the Liberals must pick, from among their members, MHAs to sit as Opposition. Imagine that. We are just coming out of one of the darkest periods in oppressive government here, and yet we are prepared to set ourselves up for another.

Some of my fellow bloggers have railed against the NDP for bringing this matter to the public attention as an issue to consider when voting. Terms such as "fear mongering" are being thrown out there. Yet, isn't it just plain common sense? Of course it is. It's also good political strategy. Many people here say we want an effective opposition - just not from my District. That's another hang over issue from the political culture of "road politics" that still pervades the province's mentality.

The truth is the NDP are really the only party well suited for Opposition today. Firstly, and most importantly, they aren't the PCs. PC party politicians have been responsible for fiascoes ranging from massive overspending that's left the treasury bust, to unresolved questions over the killing of injured worker (and injured worker advocate) Don Dunphy in his home on Easter Sunday at the hands of Premier Paul Davis's good friend and bodyguard Sgt Joe Smyth of the RNC. They brought us Bill 29. They disallowed any meaningful public scrutiny of Nalcor. They created a financial albatross on Muskrat Falls. Just this year they committed to borrowing $2 billion to have a budgetary deficit of $1 Billion. Yet, as we all know, those figures were based on $63 barrel for oil. It's now $20 less than that. The list goes on and on and on.

Strangely, perhaps, it was the PCs own unbelievable arrogance that finally brought them down. It blinded them from seeing what they were doing was wrong. It led to an assault on the government by a few bloggers, and some local activists on radio shows and social media. A switch in the national political scene brought the death nail as Trudeau's arrival as Liberal leader 2 years ago marked the moment the decline began in a hurry. There is a lesson in that for Dwight Ball. It wasn't anything he did that brought an end to the Tory Tyranny. It was a combination of a hearts and minds war conducted by a few on the ground, and a final coup de grace with a switch in national fortunes. He would do well to commit that to the forefront of his memory.

With the PCs ruled out as Opposition, by any measure of common sense,  the NDP ought to be the default go to party. They are in some ways ideally suited given their roots in social activism and claim to represent the "working man". The next many years, let's just say the foreseeable future, this province is going to see public service cuts, spending cuts, and unemployment that it has not seen in decades - at the least. Given the way the PCs spent, and committed future funds, there is no realistic alternative. It will be a blood bath. A social voice is needed in those circumstances in any case. So, the need for an effective Opposition and an effective social voice should cause the people of the Province to elect at least a rump of an NDP Opposition - although somewhere around 10 or so seats would be better. The odds of this happening are in the hands of the NDP, and to some extent the Liberals. Ball ought to be cautioning people against a 40 seat landslide. I know that sounds politically iffy, but it also sounds statesmanlike and mature. The NDP ought to be selling the need for an effective Opposition, and one that is not responsible for the financial disaster unfolding in the Province. It's a no-brainer, right? I guess we will see if Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have learned much from the last 10 years, or whether they enjoy the tyranny of the majority - the absolute majority.

The People's Turn in Canada

Tuesday night was the revenge of the average person in Alberta. A modern day political slaughter that saw the now former Premier resign both his seat and his leadership before all the votes were counted in his riding. A "socialist" NDP government swept out the corporate-obedient PC's leaving just two "conservative" governments in all the provinces of Canada - Saskatchewan and in name only Newfoundland and Labrador. The casualties are obvious, as is the trend, but what's behind it all. That is the question.

The first factor is alienation. Voter alienation. People alienation. The Conservative agenda, of no deficits run government as if it were a business, trace back to the early nineties and Preston Manning's Reform Party movement - coincidentally also born in Alberta. Prior to that, deficits were a matter of fact in Canadian politics, and social programs were one of the key things that we defined ourselves by. How we look after each other and the less fortunate in society. Paul Martin took the idea of running the country like a business, rather than as a country, to the federal scene. He chopped and chopped until the provinces were forced to do the same, and before we new it we had "business-government". People began to view this new way of things as responsible. They equated it to their own lives and their own finances. Before we knew it we had not just "business-politics", but also "business-families". The promise was that if we followed this path that our country and our lives would reach some sort of Utopian balance.

Unfortunately, to quote some nefarious politicians from here, "nothing could be further from the truth". After 25 years of the "Manning doctrine" the finances of the country are no better than they were. Our household problems and family issues have not improved. What we've really become is a country preoccupied with survival and cold at heart when it comes to our own. We have become "rationalizers" rather than "visionary". There is no more advancement toward a just society, but rather a down ward spiral of the dog eat dog society that is so prevalent in our neighbor to the south. A cold place, with a machine-like existence, and no purpose other than achieving some elusive economic paradise. 

That's ending in Canada though. The idea that our only worth as a country is to be measured by deficit or surplus each year is slowly uncoupling. Harper kind of gets this. His platform for re-election this year is dishing financial breaks to two specific groups - the so-called rich and the so-called middle class. He's targeting their desire to have more income, as if that could somehow improve their personal happiness, in an attempt to tempt people to achieving that "elusive economic paradise". He's trying to prove that the Manning doctrine is working, and that the country is really to be measured by its bottom line rather than its values. It's a formula that has been successful up to now since the dog days of Preston Manning. But, those days are coming to a quick end.

The PC's loss in Alberta was not about the decline in oil prices. The truth is the PC's have been falling in voter support in Alberta since Ralph Kline left. He was popular because he represented the bold, brash, free spirit of the Alberta people. The ones that followed merely tried to maintain a political system for the corporate elites in Alberta, while virtually ignoring the wishes of their own people. Until last night, Alberta dared not cross the Rubicon. It dared not fire the maintainers. Now the seal has been broken, and the "unthinkable" has happened. It happened in the last federal election in Quebec as well. The "anti-business", "pro-people" party, the NDP, created a wave. The Orange Wave or the Orange Crush - which ever you prefer. 

Why? Because people are sick of being treated as widgets. It's that simple. Sick of being measured by the dollar. Sick of seeing the sick and downtrodden marginalized as if they were more burden than their relative economic worth. Sick of being treated as a commodity. Sick of having their hopes for the future superficially addressed. The list goes on, but essentially, people are sick of insincere people treating them like means to an end. By rationalizing our society to an economic standard we have rationalized our humanness in kind. It is this fundamental fact that has resulted in Orange Waves. It's not that the NDP are somehow the in thing. It's that the other parties have been type-cast as purveyors of the status quo. Interchangeable. Indistinguishable. Preston Manning clones that people have become sick of. 

Will that people's revolt happen this year in our province's election? You can take that to the bank - pardon the pun. Will it be the Liberals, who now lead the polls, that take the government? That's still not a guaranteed thing. The PCs falling is, but their replacement isn't. A great deal of that depends on how the Liberals conduct themselves as the "people's party". Will they be believable as champions of the people rather than champions of the business elite? Right now that is very questionable. Very questionable in deed. Will the NDP rebound, catch momentum, and become those champions of the average person? That's still to be determined too. One thing seems certain from last night - Harper's/Manning's view of Canada is under attack, and the PM should be seeing the Alberta victory for what it is - the People's turn.

  

Up the NDP

So Thomas Mulcair is the new leader of the federal NDP. Like Dick Cheney, and on the same day, the NDP received a heart transplant. The fiery Irish/French politician, lovingly known in Quebec as the "Grizzly Bear", puts an air of combat into a Party best known as a forum for the feel good.

On a strategic note, Mulcair ushers in a historic new era to Canadian politics. Last year the NDP took second party status from the Liberals based on a near complete victory in the province of Quebec. An accurate analysis of that victory is Quebecers got tired of being on the outside looking in as was the case with the Bloc Quebecois. Being perhaps the greatest pragmatists in Canada they decided to instead capture an otherwise weak federal Party, and get themselves back into the power equation federally - on their terms.

Having captured the traditional home base of the Liberal Party, Quebec, and having placed a Quebecer in charge of the Party, Thomas Mulcair, the NDP are now within striking distance of becoming the new Liberal Party federally. To be successful they will have to make further inroads in Atlantic Canada, and Ontario. They are positioned to do that. Take the one small example of Jack Harris. Harris is a strong personal and professional confidant of former Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams. He backed Mulcair's leadership bid, and the ex-premier himself gave a videotaped tribute to the late Jack Layton. During his tribute he singled out the work of his old buddy Harris - who just happened to be backing Mulcair. And so it goes.

Bottom line is Mulcair's NDP will be a much different breed than Layton's NDP. This NDP will be aggressive, relentless, and determined. It will target the old Liberal territories to form a new power base that will challenge Harper's Ontario/West power base. Expect to see Newfoundlanders like Ryan Cleary and Jack Harris taking on a far more public profile in the government. Look to see the NDP focusing on issues of importance to Quebec and Ontario. Look to see Mulcair woo soft Liberal or small "L" Liberals over to the NDP by naming them as "progressives." Hard to argue that title: "I'm not a Progressive! I'm a Regressive!"

Quebec politicians in general have always understood exactly how the ebb and flow of Canadian politics work. They above all other Canadians have a sense of it all, and they know how to work it. Mulcair is no different. Look for him to make the Liberals in the House of Commons look like the retirement club. Will the Liberals react properly? Can they reach within the ranks to discover a politician that can lead them back to victory in their traditional base of support? Hard to say. One thing is certain though: The NDP has put a man in charge that can do that, and is aiming for all the Liberals traditional support base. As a partisan that is not NDP I find the obvious facts unfolding on the ground disturbing. As a political observer I have to say that this historical move appears underway. For better or for worse.

Should the federal Liberals join the NDP?

All federal political parties had a historic night on the 2nd of May, 2011. The Bloc was nearly wiped out, and it's Leader lost his seat. The Green Party elected it's first member of Parliament - it's Leader. The Harper Conservatives finally were awarded with a majority after several minority governments. The NDP reached historic new heights with 102 seats, and were able to secure the Office of the Official Opposition - also for  the first time. The Liberals suffered their worst loss ever, including the loss of their Leader's seat, and Official opposition status. Historical night all around.

The question immediately came to the fore: Should the Liberals amalgamate with the NDP to form a new unified left? The pundits all seemed to fall in line with that idea. The night of the loss they called for a new "Liberal Democratic Party" as it were. Bob Rae came on TV that night and seemed to endorse the idea of giving it at least some consideration. I believe, however, that entire idea, including it's premises, is completely wrong.

First of all, Liberals are not socialists. If they were socialists they would already be in the NDP or some such movement. They are traditionally the menders of conflict between Quebec and the rest of the country. It is in this way they really earned their title " Natural Governing Party". At times it required them to take a tough, and politically unpopular stand in Quebec, like the Clarity Act. They wrapped themselves in the flag, and were proud to declare they were not the "waiters to the provinces". They championed social justice and the "Just Society" - enshrining such in our Constitution. At the same time they were a Party of business ensuring Canada remained a player in the world. Jean Chretien, by way of example, led many trade missions throughout the world and signed free trade agreements. His Minister of Finance, Paul Martin, made tough and unpopular decisions to eradicate the deficit that was a main stay point of contention with the then populist Reform Party. In general, they were viewed as the Party of balance. The national interest was safe in their hands.

Contrast that with the NDP. They share in some ways a social justice message with the Liberals, but beyond that a common thread is hard to find. Proponents of a Liberal Democrat merger argue it would end vote splitting as if this were the reason for the Liberals loss. That the two Parties shared the same constituency, and their individual existence doomed them to split their own vote forever. They argue it represents the same problem the Reform and the Progressive Conservatives faced a decade ago. This logic is flawed.

Firstly, the Reform and PCs were from the same family. It was not so much a unification as it was a reunification - a burying of the axe if you will. A marriage of the Harris Ontario Tories and the Harper Reformers. The fallout was directly related to the historic PC loss that resulted in going from the largest majority ever to two seats nationally. A catastrophic loss that wiped out the PC base from coast to coast - despite the efforts of Jean Charest to reverse it's effects.

Secondly, and far more importantly, the NDP are not here to stay in these numbers. Their victory in Quebec centered around their leader Jack Layton. A man who has committed not to run in another campaign, and who's advancing years and poor health would seem to rule out another run. They have a caucus that is now dominated by Quebec. Many of these Quebecers are dedicated to Quebec sovereignty. The Party born of prairie populism is now dominated by people who wish to see the destruction of the country. Their own long term MPs, and some new ones like Ryan Cleary, will find themselves in a Party they can no longer recognize. The new Quebec wing will dominate the NDP. The NDP itself is actually in danger of a catastrophic split. If all these new MPs, 60% of all MPs in the NDP now, decide to leave they would form the Official Opposition. In terms of power politics you can be sure that fact has not escaped their French lieutenants. A new, and powerful position for separatists within a federal party. At the very least, inexperience and separatist leanings are bound to create ongoing political chaos for these folks.

It's time for the Liberal Party of Canada to take a deep breath. What they suffered was a political loss. Bad to be sure, but not fatal. Every Party suffers a loss from time to time. They need to take time to see why they have failed. I, for one, believe the answer is fairly obvious. The big losses started happening with poor leadership choices. Sorry, but that is the history. If you want to be real then you have to get real. Poor leadership choices resulted in loss of political discipline. Loss of political discipline created a perception of weakness, which resulted in a massive loss of credibility. At a time of choice people are going to turn to the Leader who they perceive has credibility. They consider the perception of the Leader as the primary factor in their decision. Just look at Duceppe vs Layton in 2011. It was Jack mania and Gilles is a dinosaur. The key for any Party is that their Leader is not perceived as yesterday's man. That is the political reality facing the Liberal Party of Canada. It needs to choose the Leader of tomorrow, and not an appendage of the past. Then it needs to rally around that Leader and exercise sound Party discipline around it's founding principles. The ship of sensibility in the stormy waters of right or left fanaticism. The Canadian people will look to them again for prudence in the not too distant future.

Election prediction 2011 - and the Aftermath

In the stormy waters of the 2011 general election a prediction is hard to come by. The old adage "a week in politics is a long time" has never been so true. The campaign started with a well orchestrated dissolution of Parliament. A focused Conservative strategy that included several months of preparatory attack ads on the credibility of Liberal leader Ignatieff. Not unlike a military operation where you fire artillery at the enemy and attack when there are only dead and dying left.

Every detail was planned. In Newfoundland and Labrador we witnessed Senator Manning announce multiple federal financial commitments to communities in his own riding right up to the date of the fall of government. We witnessed the signing of the Quebec Offshore Accord one day before the fall of government. We witnessed the unholy alliance of Kathy Dunderdale, and the provincial PC's, with the Harper Conservatives. A dubious commitment to provide funding or guarantees for the Lower Churchill being the grease on the wheel. All things were a go, and the Conservatives believed the twelve elusive seats they needed to form a majority were well in place.

However, as we say in the military, no plan survives the first contact with the enemy. In Newfoundland and Labrador the peace treaty made by the provincial PC's almost immediately proved futile. Mr. Harper's credibility with the people here was not improved. Ms. Dunderdale was viewed as a traitor to Danny Williams - and he has not come out to disprove the notion. The collection of "respectable" candidates, trotted out from all sorts of previous political appointments to run was viewed with immediate suspicion. The ultimate result of the back fire in this province was Mr Harper's rather catastrophic campaign stop last week where barely 100 people turned out. Even worse, Ms. Dunderdale and her Cabinet did not show. To be sure this reflects as badly on her as it does on him, but he's the one facing election now.

Several potential scandals against the government surfaced, and then almost as quickly subsided. The deliberate leak of the second Auditor General's report casting a less damning view of the government's handling of the G20 funds seemed to put it to bed - for now. However, the real game changer in the campaign was the English language debate. Mr. Harper was not bruised as expected in the debate. Mr. Ignatieff gave some strong moments, but was shaky at times and hurt the perception that he could make a strong Prime Minister. Mr. Layton came out swinging, as usual, but only really hurt Ignatieff. Mr.Duceppe had a terrible performance. He seemed to lack focus, intensity, and was largely hard to understand. The English debate left Mr. Harper as the front runner, and cemented that position.

The french debate was the clincher. Mr. Duceppe was equally unimpressive in the french debate as he was in the English debate. This time, however, he had the most to lose. He was successfully portrayed as a dinosaur. A man from a different era fighting battles that had little relevance to the every day lives of Quebecers. That debate, combined with his lazy campaign, left the battleground for hearts and minds open. The Conservatives could not fill the void. They had aligned early on with Newfoundland and Labrador over the Lower Churchill, which alienated the "nationalistic" vote in Quebec. The federal Liberals were not in a position to capitalize as they were still being blamed for the Clarity Act, and the sponsorship scandal. The only real alternative left for Quebecers to look at was the NDP. Of course it helps that Mr. Layton played up his Quebec birthplace. It also helped that the NDP has been flirting with the pro-separatist unions in Quebec for years. Ultimately, Quebec voters decided to move toward the NDP as their seemingly logical choice.

What that move will result in is not known for certain at this time. However, it will radically alter the post election political scene. Going out on a limb, with a little over a week to go, I'll make the following prediction based on the move recorded in the polls: Conservative 128 seats; NDP 89 seats; Liberal 78 seats; and Bloc 29 seats. What the configuration does is several things: there will not be a coalition; there will be leadership changes in two parties at least; and the next election will likely take place in 2013. My guess is it will be framed on the huge equalization battles coming in the next year or two. There will be a call for a strong central government. One that reflects a national vision, and one that can hold the country together as the provinces wage war against each other to keep the dollars they have, or to get more of someone else's share.

It is a virtual certainty that the federal Liberals would never form a coalition with the NDP that would see an NDPer become Prime Minister. It would, however, give them a chance to change their leadership and give a new leader the time in Parliament to show his stuff. The next federal Liberal leader will be french - that is certain based on the alternating French/English tradition of the Liberal Party of Canada. Look for Justin Trudeau to take over the reigns. The Bloc will change leaders to. Look for them to seek a younger leader to work with the upcoming PQ government in Quebec City. Mr. Charest may be a great guy, and a dedicated Canadian, but he has been mortally wounded. The Conservatives will be in the unenviable position of needing a leadership change without being able to achieve one. It defies the imagination that a Prime Minister of a minority Parliament could be challenged.

As much as I hate to see it unfolding, it appears the NDP is on track to become the Official Opposition. Perhaps there will be a miracle in the last week of the campaign. Jean Chretien, the most popular Prime Minister of modern times, is coming out Wednesday to support Mr. Ignatieff. If anyone can change the course of the election it may be him. However, it appears that people are becoming very decided in their positions, and it may be impossible to sway them at this late stage.

In any case, a prediction is a prediction.