Russia's duty in Eastern Ukraine

As far as civil wars go, the war in Eastern Ukraine is as ugly and hateful as any. It started with a popular revolt in the republics of Lugansk and Donetsk against the removal of the Ukrainian president by popular revolt in Western Ukraine - during the Sochi Olympics. Back then unarmed civilians were standing in front of tanks and armoured personnel carriers to stop Ukrainian troops from entering their cities and towns. People took over government buildings and protested against the government in Kiev. We're a long way from those days now.

With backing from the United States, the Ukrainian government turned its army on the rebels in both Republics. In response, Russia assisted the rebels with arms, intelligence and some allege men. In any case, the popular unrest against the coup in Kiev turned into a war for the two republics independence. Shockingly, and brutally, the Ukrainian government ordered its own military forces to attack the towns and cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, and the death toll of civilians ran into the thousands. The Ukrainian government never seriously looked to negotiate with the people of Eastern Ukraine. They simply tried to put them down. That's were anger over the coup turned into pure hatred. A blood hatred. Too many lives were touched by death and destruction at the hands of their own government to ever forgive.

Today, as I write this, the guns of war have shattered what was always a shaky ceasefire known as the Minsk Accord. Minsk was always destined to failure as it never fully took into account the blood hate in Ukraine. I wrote about it back then here . The truth is neither side wants a thing to do with the other. The Ukrainian government is acting as though the people in Eastern Ukraine are trying to steal their territory, and the people who reside there have no right to self-determination. Not a very European view, which the new government there claims to be.

The Ukrainian army has been conducting a "creeping" offensive almost since Minsk was signed, but in recent days that has accelerated dramatically. They have been moving into small towns and areas that were agreed to be no man's land, or left alone by both sides. They were in the de-militarized zone that divided the two sides along the complete front lines. The forces of Donetsk and Lugansk, I call them NAF or Novorossiya Armed Forces, after the name the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics gave their new political entity (Novorossiya = New Russia), are responding to these incursions now. Massive artillery duels between the two sides have escalated dramatically. Civilian areas are being leveled once again, and Ukrainian tanks have been filmed in the "de-militarized" zone near the city of Donetsk.

It appears that a freshly rearmed Ukraine, with masses of new military recruits, is again planning on asserting itself on the two republics. That being the case, where are the guarantor nations of the Minsk Agreement? Russia, Germany and France brokered the deal, but they aren't forcing the Ukrainian government to restrain itself. In fact, they haven't been able to get Ukraine to live up to any of the required steps outlined in the Minsk Agreement. Instead, Minsk has served as a shaky truce at best - often violated over the last three years, but not to the degree it has been today.

Russia, Germany and France have the responsibility to enforce Minsk. Not just the truce aspect of Minsk, but also the structural requirements that the Ukraine government was meant to do under the agreement. While Russia would not have much influence to bring to bare on the government in Kiev, Germany and France certainly could. The United States certainly could. Instead, these governments, including my own in Canada, have turned this into a rearming and retraining exercise of the Ukrainian military - essentially treating Ukraine as a member of the NATO alliance. In other words, there has been no good faith given to the Minsk Agreement, and the sole focus has been meeting force with force.

Russia has a role to play in all this that it has refused, and that is to occupy the two republics. The Ukrainian government feels it has a free hand in attacking when and how it chooses, and most of the casualties that result are civilians. This has to stop. The only way to stop the Ukrainian government from attacking its own civilians in the republics is to place a barrier in front of them that will deliver a much more serious blow to them that they could inflict on the other side. The Russian army would and should constitute such a barrier. I say that not to wave the Russian flag, but in serious reflection on reality. Russia will not, understandably, allow foreign armies enmasse on its border. Nobody would. It would take an army to stop the two sides from killing each other. The majority of both republics either identify themselves as Russian or are Russian speakers. The Russians in these circumstances would be trusted by the people of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Russian military intervention in the republics is necessary, pragmatic, and humane. The Western world needs to come to this conclusion, and support it before all out carnage raises its ugly head there again. The stupid, outdated ideas of Russian imperialism and all that nonsense need to be put to the side. The Russian government must also wake up and smell the coffee. Russia claims to be a source of major influence in the world, and a leader in a new multi-polar world. If that is to be the case, then Russia must exert itself correspondingly if it wants to be taken seriously.

Of course, Russia itself is in the middle of a rearmament program, and in that sense it may not want to bite off more than it can chew - which in a sense is understandable. However, when mass slaughter is happening on your won border, and people of your decent are the victims of a government that shells its own people, then it is incumbent on you to act decisively. By way of example, the Turkish incursion into Syria to establish a "safe zone". Russia could, and should do the same in Donetsk and Lugansk. A safe zone that protects those people from being slaughtered at random by their own government. That isn't being imperialistic or ambitious. It is being humane and showing leadership. It is plain and obvious, that after three years of Minsk, the Ukraine government simply can't resist the temptation to put down the people of Donetsk and Lugansk by force. No further evidence is required. Russia sitting on its hands makes Russia look weak on its own border, and with its fellow Slavs. So, Mr. Putin, show the leadership a leader of the multi-polar world must, and make Donetsk and Lugansk a "safe zone" for the people that live there. Don't they deserve that much?

The Muskrat Falls U-boat cover up - emails

The best way to start an article like this is to just come out with it: we have been mislead. After numerous appeals by a "third party" my access to information request for any maps, drawings, pictures or communications regarding a German U-boat wreck at or near Muskrat Falls from the provincial Department of Natural Resources has been granted. What it discloses, despite the government not being fully forthcoming in its disclosure, is a web of secrecy and deceit regarding the U-boat wrecks at Muskrat Falls.

That's right I said "wrecks" as in plural. Government emails disclose their are actually two U-boat wreck sites at Muskrat Falls. One site, directly at the foot of the falls, being explored by Ray Tremblay of "Bomb Hunters" fame, and the other about 900 meters from it (the one I previously wrote on and that was first pictured in sonar image by Mr. Corbin). In an email from Natural Resources Assistant Deputy Minister Paul Scott in July, 2012, the provincial government acknowledges there may be two U-boat wrecks at Muskrat Falls and nearby. However, and perhaps even more importantly, the email proves Nalcor new of the one U-boat wreck as early as 2012, and had its exact location on a map.

Then in later 2012, provincial archeologist Martha Drake fired off an email to Mr. Tremblay which questioned whether he was focusing on the u-boat wreck or "... on the reported bunker site on land." That was a first for me. A bunker site on land? A German bunker site? This just keeps getting stranger and stranger. And all of it is well known by our provincial government. Here's that email:

However, the big bomb comes when, in July, 2012, Nalcor's Senior Communications Advisor Karen O'Neill sends an email to Paul Scott, copying in Nalcor's senior management team, which admits to the U-boat wreck and its exact location. The government wouldn't release the sonar scans or maps but gave a big "redacted" square instead. In the email O'Neill states:

" Attached is the side-scan of the submarine and the exact coordinates of the wreck."

Here is the complete email:

Ray Tremblay indeed sent a picture of the U-boat wreck to the provincial government in August of 2012. However, the provincial government blackened out the picture for my ATTIPA request:

What seems quite strange is that an email from Diana Quinton, Director of Communications at Tourism, Culture and Recreation which details written responses to the provincial CBC for a request on details of the U-boat. In the response Quinton clearly states:

" It has come to our attention that two groups have reported the discovery of wrecks near Muskrat Falls in the Churchill River. One group made their discovery in 2010 (and reported it to Transport Canada's Receiver of Wreck this week), while the other group made their discovery in June, 2012. The coordinates for the two wrecks are different. Therefore, we assume there could possibly be two wrecks involved."

No such mention of two wrecks was ever reported by the CBC or any other media outlet. The question remains why not? They were clearly informed of two possible U-boat wrecks in 2012. The one they reported on is about 900 meters from the Falls. The one they didn't report on was Ray Tremblay's discovery right at the foot of the Falls. That is clearly a question the CBC must answer. Given the Muskrat Falls construction very nearby the wreck it would seem logical that it might be the bigger story then the other wreck they did cover. Here's the email:

The email records, particularly between Mr. Tremblay and the provincial government departments, show that Tremblay has been doing scientific scanning and diving on the wreck site every year since 2012 to the present. For those that aren't familiar with Mr. Tremblay he is a retired Canadian Forces combat engineer - an expert in demolitions. His company is featured on History Channel's "Bomb Hunters", and he has access to a wealth of all modern scientific technology for scanning below the waters surface. In an interview with me today he detailed a number of scientific, but classified methods he and his team have used over the last three years on the U-boat wreck. They'll stay confidential here, but suffice it to say he is very well qualified in what he and his team do. During his exploration he has been in constant contact with both the Canadian (more on that later) and the German governments giving them updates as detailed in this August, 2014 email:

Later in 2014, Mr. Tremblay conducted actual dives on the wreck site, but encountered wild currents and conditions (being that the site is at the foot of the Falls). He and his team did manage to film 60 hours of video though. This email gives a good description of their work in October, 2014:

In the lead up to the October, 2014 dives Mr. Tremblay requested a member of the provincial government's archeology team dive with his team given the province's interest in the matter and its historical significance. The province declined the initiation given the government had forbid Tremblay's team from removing any dirt or objects from the site, or even the touching of them:

In May, 2015, things really start moving along - especially in the email department. It's here when Mr. Tremblay first notes that the federal government is quite quietly involved with the u-boat wreck. In fact, Mr. Tremblay actually met with the Prime Ministers Office and the Department of Canadian Heritage in Ottawa. Furthermore, Mr. Tremblay states the Prime Minister (Harper) is personally interested in the wreck site. Also, at this time the German Embassy are involved with the project. In the same email though the dark side of the U-boat wrecks is revealed. Divers are highly zealous in keeping U-boat wrecks secret until they have established their name to the discovery. Of course with that established name comes lucrative contracts from media like the History Channel. To be fair though, discovering a wreck is expensive business and all out of pocket for the diving company. The email details spying by one group on the other group during exploration. In any case, here's the 2015 email detailing the PMO's involvement, and the rest:

A June 29, 2015 email from Mr. Tremblay details further contacts he has had with the federal government and advises the provincial government on his plans for a mid August, 2015 confirmation dive as well as press conference to announce the confirmation of the U-boat wreck to the world. According to the email, Tremblay states the Canadian War Museum wants to raise the wreck and place it in the museum in Ottawa:

On that same day June 29, 2015, Nalcor Senior Communications Manager fires off a rather panicked and confused email to Martha Drake stating she thought the U-boat would be left an undisturbed wreck. The more interesting response is Ms. Drake's:

"... In the meantime, the vessel belongs to the German government".

That is a big statement. It acknowledges the provincial government knows the wreck is that of a U-boat and that as such the wreck "belongs" to the "German government". Otherwise, the German government would have no claim on the wreck at  Muskrat Falls, let alone have the province's archeologist admit that Germany has ownership over it. Here's the email exchange:

On August 11, 2015 Mr. Tremblay notified provincial and federal officials of the plan for the dive (blackened out) and the date he expected to conduct his big press announcement - August 28, 2015:

In a somewhat panicked tone, Martha Drake informs other involved officials that: "..there is something in the river. I expect we can all agree on that..." She goes on to state she will craft a letter to prohibit any touching of the wreck by Mr. Tremblay's team and that she will inform Foreign Affairs of the situation:

And here is the hastily prepared letter Ms. Drake sent to Mr. Tremblay regarding the dive. It is interesting to note her cautioning of underwater unexploded munitions that may be on the site from the U-boat - especially given Mr. Tremblay's world class experience in unexploded munitions... She is very emphatic that: " ... the wreck and debris field shall not be disturbed, touched on manipulated ..." I find that a very curious instruction for a team of divers attempting to identify a U-boat. Here's why: I know of no U-boat dive that didn't require divers to touch, move and surface with articles in order to identify a German U-boat wreck. It's standard practise. Of course removing human remains is strictly forbidden (if there are any), but articles such as knives, breathing apparatus, etc are routinely removed from U-boat wrecks to identify them. For instance, in many cases U-boat numbers are on the backs of china used on the boat, or names are placed on individual escape breathing apparatus. Boat numbers are also found on torpedo doors or the ship's batteries. Most of which have to be extensively cleaned to remove decades of sea growth before they give up their information. Whether Ms. Drake's instructions are from a point of ignorance, or otherwise, they doomed the identification of the boat before the operation started.

Ms. Drake then sends an email to Nalcor and government senior staff letting them know that her letter to Mr. Tremblay was sent to Foreign Affairs. Odd that she should make that distinction if the touching of the U-boats debris field etc was for safety reasons. it is hard to see what interest Foreign Affairs might have in such a topic. It seems as though a number of people were quite determined to tie Mr. Tremblay's hands in actually identifying the U-boat, or perhaps its cargo, and that included the federal and German governments. Indeed, Reneta Lambreva, Senior Policy Advisor at Foreign Affairs responded to one Dan Mackenzie, federal government, Inter-governmental Affairs Secretariat:

"... To prepare the ground on our side, I have notified the desk for Germany as a heads up for the potential announcement involving a foreign vessel that might come out by August 28th. Keeping the desk informed will speed up things in case an action needs to be taken. "

Mr. Mackenzie then disseminates the details of the wreck that Foreign Affairs has supplied (which aren't included in the ATTIPPA release). He emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach:

Then on August 22, 2015 Mr. Tremblay fires off an excited email to Ms. Drake that confirmation diving will start on the wreck the next day. He states that the team saw a propeller with an underwater camera the day before:

Then, like a balloon that burst, a final email from Mr. Tremblay on August 31, 2015 to Ms. Drake:

" No announcement this time again..."

Given the big buildup to the dive in August, 2015, which included 10 divers, I was left somewhat dumfounded at the sudden end of email exchanges and the pronouncement of "no announcement this time again". Clearly it was a message of frustration (understandably) by Mr. Tremblay, but the reasons weren't detailed in an email. They came by way of a phone conversation he had with Ms. Drake. I contacted Mr. Tremblay to clarify what happened. His response was the sand had completely covered the wreck. Given the restrictive measures placed on him by the provincial government (my words not his) there was never any hope for identifying the U-boat number, but not being able to remove sand to expose the wreck now meant the announcement to the world had to be postponed for yet another year. Mr. Tremblay states that when the Muskrat Falls River is diverted (hopefully it won't be) his team will be able to work much better in the environment around the wreck as the currents and volumes of water will be dramatically reduced.

It's hard to visualize the U-boat wreck Mr. Tremblay has discovered as neither he nor the government will allow any pictures of it to be released. He told me the wreck is approximately 68 meters long and he believes it to be an intact type VII German U-boat. He remains completely committed and determined to be the one that exposes it once and for all, and given his work and financing of the project that should never be denied to him. that being said, as a point of history, the government and or Mr. Tremblay should release the images of the U-boat wreck so that the people of the province, and Germany, can see it once and for all. In addition, those of us with experience in identifying these sort of things may well be able to identify the boat's type by its distinctive structures. I don't believe that would in any way take away from Mr. Tremblay's exclusive claim to having discovered the wreck - it would simply share the images of it with the rest of us. For history's sake.

Of course, the other side of this story is that Nalcor, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Government of Canada  and the Government of Germany have kept total silence on the ongoing explorations and discoveries since the initial sonar picture of the other wreck hit the media in 2012. They have left those of us trying to expose the truth, for history's sake, on the sidelines like a bunch of crazed conspiracy theorists. Now the truth is coming out, and these emails (there are more I haven't published) prove that the U-boat wrecks at Muskrat Falls are not ghosts of the fanciful, but very real hulks of history. The question remains why? Why are these governments and Nalcor trying to cover them up?

The West's Shame

There is something so bizarre, so inhumane about Western countries boycotting the parade for the 70th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Germany in World War II that I just had to write on it. Recently, the prime minister of the United Kingdom announced he will not be attending the parade. Previous to that, countries like Germany and the United States had announced the same. It's only a parade you say? No it's more than that.

The Soviet Union sacrificed 25 million people to defeat Nazi Germany in World War II. A sacrifice beyond imagination, and far, far greater than all the countries fighting Nazi Germany combined. In comparison, the Holocaust, which is rightly remembered annually, claimed the lives of six million people of the Jewish faith. These are really the two true tragedy's of World War II unleashed on the world by Nazi Germany. The stories of Soviet soldiers advancing without weapons to pickup the rifle of the next dead soldier are well known. The bloodbath of Stalingrad, the siege of Leningrad, the millions of Soviet soldiers killed and captured (only to then die in POW camps) during the early days of the German invasion, and so on, all markers of the brutality of man against his own, stand large in the history of the world. In fact, the German invasion of the Soviet Union stands as the largest military battle in the history of man.

Yet, western leaders have decided to not attend the parade that is meant to honour that sacrifice. When Britain announced it would not attend, well, that's the straw that broke the camel's back frankly. Of all the countries in the world, Britain was saved by the massive waves of young Soviet men and woman that bled the German army white. Hitler would have crushed Britain in short order if he had not diverted millions of German men to the invasion of the Soviet Union. Crucially, the diversion of aircraft, fighters and bombers, to the Soviet front saved Britain from the entire annihilation of a full blown, continuous air campaign, and the subsequent naval invasion that would certainly have occurred. In reality, the western allies left Stalin almost alone in Europe to battle the Nazi's, and take the majority of the casualties in doing so. By the time D-Day finally arrived, the German army and air force was only a shadow of it's former self as it existed in 1941. As bad and hard as it was for the allies to march east through Europe to Berlin, without the Soviet people's sacrifice, it would have never happened.

It's a place of honour in human history. To quarrel with that is to go beyond ignorance. To quarrel with that is the hateful and arrogant bastion of the very seeds that caused World War II in the first place. And now, as if history is repeating itself, Western leaders have entered that bastion of ignorance and arrogance to punish Russia for the Ukrainian civil war. By contrast, Russian president Putin, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, attended the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings in France last year. He was given the proverbial cold shoulder by western leaders, yet he subjected himself to that, in honour of the sacrifice of the men of Canada, Britain and the United States. He did not ignore the history or the price in blood of that action. He honoured it. He put the sacrifice ahead of his political position, and it could even be said his personal shunning. Now that the time is here to do the same for the Soviet Union's dead, we cannot bring ourselves to do the same.

What that says about us is really quite obvious. It means we haven't learned the lessons of history. That our political leadership has become so petty, so detached from historical reality, that it attempts to rewrite the history of 25 million souls. That is the danger of all of this. Russians don't really need the West to honour their sacrifice. They know it all too well. It's the West that needs to honour that sacrifice so it can clearly see the dangers of war on a scale far more destructive than anything it experienced on the western front, or anywhere else in history. Poland started this train rolling by refusing to invite the Russian president to the Holocaust remembrance at Auschwitz last year. This despite the fact that the Soviet army liberated all of Poland, and specifically Auschwitz from German armies.

The actions of our western politicians say more about us than the Russians could ever say themselves. They have portrayed us as people who refuse to honour the dead, those that gave their lives in another time to defeat a tyrant bent on world domination, and in doing so dishonour those men and women. As the son of a young man, training in England, fighting in North Africa, Italy, Holland, and Germany through those tumultuous years of war and senseless slaughter, I recognize the Soviet sacrifice that probably saved my Dad's life. How could you not? Yet, that is exactly what our politicians are doing today. You don't have to be a lover of this country, or that country to recognize and honour grave human injustice committed on a massive scale. You just have to be humane, and subordinate your own bias in the remembrance of the fallen. Is that really so hard? Isn't that what is expected of us all? Wouldn't we expect that from our children? I've never been so ashamed of the actions of our governments than I am now with the boycott of that parade in Moscow.


 

Why Stratfor is Wrong on the US's Future

Stratfor, a US "geo-strategic " global intelligence company, recently published its "Decade Forecast:2015-2025" here . The essential nuts and bolts premise of this forecast is the US will remain the unchallenged global super power, while Russia, China etc fragment under social chaos and democratic forces. It even predicts Poland will become the dominant player in Europe... I kid you not. Stratfor, in all its conclusions couldn't be more wrong.

First, and probably most important, Stratfor's conclusions are based on the current system of world commerce and consumption. It brags that the US still produces 22% of the world's economic activity. That may be true, but it misses the key point - all that is about to change. Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC countires) are establishing a singular trading bloc among themselves. Importantly, the bloc's transactions are to conducted in respective national currencies - not pegged to the US dollar or even using the US dollar. In effect, they are recreating the world economy to the exclusion of the US and major European powers.

The practical effect of this monumental shift can be seen already today. In the last three months BRIC has announced a new world bank that will challenge the world bank (that operates in US dollars) for global supremacy in sovereign lending to countries in need, or between themselves for major projects. One such project is the new canal to be built in Nicaragua, financed by China, and guaranteed military protection by Russia. Again, neutralizing the US controlled Panama canal. Then, last week, the BRIC countries announced they would be creating a supra-national parliament that in essence would mimic the European Parliament. Also, in the last while, countries like Egypt, Greece, Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, etc have been gravitating to the new BRIC economic bloc - not wanting to be left out in the cold.

But what does the new bloc have that will unseat US dominance? One word: markets. With the creation of the new bloc, the US and Europe will lose significant markets for their businesses. The loss of those markets cannot be replaced. The US and Europe will be faced with massive deflation in their economies as a result, large scale recession if not depression, and the very social unrest Stratfor predicts for China and Russia will instead be taking place in the US and Europe.

Here are some real numbers that tell the tale. By 2025 the populations (markets) of the new bloc will be approximately 3.1 billion. By contrast, the North American/European bloc will have a population of 1.1 billion. That is if the current western trade partnerships remain intact in the face of closed markets in the new bloc. Consider, for example, Australia, which does massive trade with China. Australia will be forced to decide whether its political/military alliance to the West outweighs its economic survival. Other countries, particularly in Europe, face the same tough choices. By way of example, France has lost a few defence contracts lately with India - Russia being the benefactor.

Here are some even more staggering numbers. In a word: debt. The ability to borrow to consume. The necessary requirement to grow and drive any economy. You can check the current numbers of all countries here . There are two sets of shocking numbers - gross government debt as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic Product - annual) and debt per person. The three main countries power the new bloc shake out this way:

China -          20.9% (debt vs GDP)            $1,489.00 (per person)

Russia -        14.6%                                     $2,297.00

India -          68.1%                                     $  946.00

The main powers in the Western block look like this:

US -             107%                                     $58,604.00

Japan -         242 %                                    $99,725.00

Germany -     78%                                     $35,881.00

UK -              95%                                     $38,938.00

The lesson here is two fold. Firstly, the debt per person and overall gross sovereign debt of the powering nations behind the new bloc are minuscule, and they are ripe for growth. Secondly, in the case of India, its large gross debt as a percentage of GDP, yet minute personal debt, means once it economy is properly stimulated its Debt vs GDP ratio will fall drastically. None of these things can be said for the Western bloc. In a phrase: the West is maxed out. It has nowhere to grow, and certainly no ability to dominate the new bloc politically, militarily, or economically. Stratfor is just plain wrong. Very wrong. Surprisingly wrong. Money and markets do not have a soul. It has no national agenda or pride. It only exists on numbers. Those numbers heavily weigh to the favour of the new BRIC alliance. Just as assuredly, they condemn the West to a time of severe and fast decline.