On September 5, 2014, after six months of fighting, the powers in Europe drew up the Minsk Agreement with Russia to end fighting in the Ukraine. The plan had 12 points primarily centered around stopping the fighting, with some ink devoted to a special status for Donetsk and Luhansk within Ukraine and some economic investment to spur the republics economies. Looking back on the Minsk Agreement now, well, it seems pretty hollow.
Depending on which casualty reports you want to believe, there have been between 5-15,000 people killed in the conflict and ten times that wounded or maimed. A majority of those are civilians. The majority of those civilians killed and wounded were at the hands of Ukraine army artillery - multiple rocket artillery (GRAD) to be exact. In fact the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk have suffered indiscriminate shelling for close to a year now. Before that it was Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Artemivsk, Gorlovka and so on. It wasn't until fairly recently that the separatist forces (NAF) got a hold of GRAD systems in any significant numbers. Now they are pounding cities too around the Debaltsevo pocket east of Gorlovka.
In short, far too much blood has been spilled too subject the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics to the authority of Ukraine. That time has come and gone, and any agreement that even hints at that will be worth less than the paper it's written on.
The practical implications of allowing Ukraine to rule the two republics again speak for themselves. The Ukraine army has destroyed vast areas of the republics with primarily artillery. Bridges have been blown, water and sewer plants destroyed, electrical grids damaged, hospitals and schools destroyed, and so on. The bill to replace this mass of infrastructure alone is in the tens of billions. Ukraine doesn't have the money to fix what it has ruined. As we speak it is weeks away from a possible default, but even if that doesn't happen, the Ukraine financial position is at best Greek-like. In fact, in the last year Ukraine's currency has lost about 65% of its value. There is no up side here. So how could Ukraine rule Donetsk and Luhansk again in any case? They would be left in abstract poverty and decline for decades at least.
Many nations are formed in blood - actually most. Donetsk and Luhansk are no different, albeit they remain pawns in a larger game of geo-politics - each side spurring on their choice in one way or another. How can the woman whose man has been killed in battle by the Ukraine army live under its flag? How can the man in the NAF maimed by war do the same? How about the civilians with now tortured minds from being under shelling far too long, or seeing far too much death and destruction, ever stand and sing the Ukraine national anthem. These are not matters of geo-politics. These are matters of humanity.
As the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia gather in Minsk to ink the latest deal on Donetsk and Luhansk they need to realize the people of Donetsk and Luhansk cannot be forcefully or diplomatically reunified with Ukraine. If that is to happen in any way it must be by the will of the people of the two republics, and that can only happen by referendum - UN supervised referendum. Demarcations lines from this town or that town are also meaningless. They do nothing but "freeze" the conflict. The only real and meaningful lines that matter are the boundaries of the republics. Those should be respected, and those must be the only demarcation lines implemented.
The Ukraine government may not like it, but it gave up the right to deal with a free hand in Donetsk and Luhansk when it turned the guns of war on what was essentially a separatist revolt. Live by the sword, die by the sword. The water has been poisoned. The dye is cast. Minsk is dead. Minsk 2.0 must reflect reality and NOT the whims of fanciful politicians smitten with the idea of territorial integrity.
Showing posts with label Luhansk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luhansk. Show all posts
Monday, February 9, 2015
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
The Ukraine Rope a Dope
The situation is turning from bad to worse in Ukraine for that country's government. Its policy of flashy pincer movements to try and capture high profile objectives for media consumption has come to its natural conclusion - utter failure. As I wrote one month ago - The Mouse Trap - NAF forces were sucking the Ukraine army east to lure them into battle within the strategically convenient, and plausibly deniable, Russian guns. Since that time Ukraine has lost most of its operational air force to missiles, and has seen entire brigades of men wiped out along salients located near the Russian border.
Rather than recognize what should have been the obvious, the Ukraine government continued with the policy of "not giving one inch" and remained in place, trying all the time to crush the will to defend by massive artillery strikes on cities. However, just like Hitler did to his Generals, notably the 6th in Stalingrad, the Ukraine government refused to give ground to a more favorable position. The result of that somewhat reckless decision is now the same result Hitler found - encircled forces. At the time of this post there are 9 encircled formations of Ukraine troops with an estimated total strength of 20,000. For an army the size of Ukraine's, this number represents a decisive loss. What makes matters worse is the knowledge that the units now trapped, and the ones trapped prior to this and already eliminated, represent the entire core of Ukraine's professional army.
The situation in north and central Luhansk is essentially a standoff, with neither side making any bold moves at this point. It has become a static front. The same applies to the west of Donetsk city. Ukraine continues to try and make fruitless attempts to cut off Gorlovka, north of Donetsk, from the rear. The result has been mixed, and has resulted in high casualties with no tangible reward. It is to the south of both Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces), lined by the Russian border, where Ukraine has suffered the most dramatic and catastrophic losses - in men and position. It began with several Ukraine brigades being trapped in the "South Pocket" along the Russian border, and ended with approximately 1500 soldiers being released back to Ukraine with 10,000 missing. It also resulted in the capture of large amounts of Ukraine tanks, and more importantly artillery. With the essential destruction of the Ukraine air force, artillery on both sides has become the tool for battlefield dominance.
That brings us to today, and tomorrow. Having tied up a large percentage of Ukraine troops at the north and central fronts, and with Ukraine thus far refusing to withdraw to positions more defensible with fewer troops, the NAF has moved in the South. Essentially, the move came from near the Russian border two days ago, including an amphibious landing just east of Mariupol on Ukraine's south coast. Simultaneously, NAF units in Donetsk city counterattacked toward the South. The resulting squeeze caused a large Ukraine retreat, but not before two more large pockets of trapped troops were created. At the time of this post Mariupol is surrounded on two sides, with the western resupply/escape route being rapidly closed. NAF units are fanning along the north of Mariupol in an attempt to block Ukraine units from moving south to intercept advancing NAF forces. The goal appears to be the City of Melitopol. From there the NAF have quick access to the Crimean border (Russia) and the Dnieper River cities to the north.
I call this the "Left Hook". Basically a very large flanking maneuver. Having sustained all the blows the Ukraine army could throw at it, the NAF is now countering an exhausted foe - hence the title "Rope a Dope". With Ukraine's entire rear exposed, including all the way to the capital Kiev, it will have no choice but to rapidly withdraw West, and re-position forces to its southern rear. That opens the door for the NAF to easily move West, and that is where the next move comes - the "right uppercut" if you will. The NAF will then be in position to move on Kharkiv city, and the oblast in general - in the North. It will be free to advance in the centre and bypass (if still heavily defended) or capture Slavyansk and area moving directly to the City of Dnepropetrovsk on the Dnieper River - which is to become the new westerly border of a new Novorossyia (New Russia).
The last front to be explained is the Kherson/Odessa areas. Once the NAF capture and secure Melitopol, the Ukraine defences along the Crimea border are exposed from the rear. At that time the separatist region of Moldova, Transnistria, which houses Russian and "Transnistria Self-Defence Forces", is likely to strike southward toward Odessa.
All these moves combined mean a few things. Firstly, it appears that although there are peace or cease fire talks ongoing, they are likely for show at best. Secondly it means that Ukraine will cease to function as a country. Its already desperate financial position will be crippled by the loss of one half of the country - the most resource rich part. Thirdly it means that Ukraine will become landlocked and essentially a new "pocket - like" area. If NATO were to move into this area, they would be surrounded on three sides by Russia, Novorossyia, and Belarus. It would be indefensible. Therefore, Ukraine, or what's left of it, turns into an economically barren no mans land between East and West.
In any case, the "Mouse Trap" is done, the "Rope a Dope" is done, and now it's time for the "Left-Right" combination punches. I understand Putin is a judo champ, and he may have a judo analogy for this, but for now this is mine.
Rather than recognize what should have been the obvious, the Ukraine government continued with the policy of "not giving one inch" and remained in place, trying all the time to crush the will to defend by massive artillery strikes on cities. However, just like Hitler did to his Generals, notably the 6th in Stalingrad, the Ukraine government refused to give ground to a more favorable position. The result of that somewhat reckless decision is now the same result Hitler found - encircled forces. At the time of this post there are 9 encircled formations of Ukraine troops with an estimated total strength of 20,000. For an army the size of Ukraine's, this number represents a decisive loss. What makes matters worse is the knowledge that the units now trapped, and the ones trapped prior to this and already eliminated, represent the entire core of Ukraine's professional army.
The situation in north and central Luhansk is essentially a standoff, with neither side making any bold moves at this point. It has become a static front. The same applies to the west of Donetsk city. Ukraine continues to try and make fruitless attempts to cut off Gorlovka, north of Donetsk, from the rear. The result has been mixed, and has resulted in high casualties with no tangible reward. It is to the south of both Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces), lined by the Russian border, where Ukraine has suffered the most dramatic and catastrophic losses - in men and position. It began with several Ukraine brigades being trapped in the "South Pocket" along the Russian border, and ended with approximately 1500 soldiers being released back to Ukraine with 10,000 missing. It also resulted in the capture of large amounts of Ukraine tanks, and more importantly artillery. With the essential destruction of the Ukraine air force, artillery on both sides has become the tool for battlefield dominance.
That brings us to today, and tomorrow. Having tied up a large percentage of Ukraine troops at the north and central fronts, and with Ukraine thus far refusing to withdraw to positions more defensible with fewer troops, the NAF has moved in the South. Essentially, the move came from near the Russian border two days ago, including an amphibious landing just east of Mariupol on Ukraine's south coast. Simultaneously, NAF units in Donetsk city counterattacked toward the South. The resulting squeeze caused a large Ukraine retreat, but not before two more large pockets of trapped troops were created. At the time of this post Mariupol is surrounded on two sides, with the western resupply/escape route being rapidly closed. NAF units are fanning along the north of Mariupol in an attempt to block Ukraine units from moving south to intercept advancing NAF forces. The goal appears to be the City of Melitopol. From there the NAF have quick access to the Crimean border (Russia) and the Dnieper River cities to the north.
I call this the "Left Hook". Basically a very large flanking maneuver. Having sustained all the blows the Ukraine army could throw at it, the NAF is now countering an exhausted foe - hence the title "Rope a Dope". With Ukraine's entire rear exposed, including all the way to the capital Kiev, it will have no choice but to rapidly withdraw West, and re-position forces to its southern rear. That opens the door for the NAF to easily move West, and that is where the next move comes - the "right uppercut" if you will. The NAF will then be in position to move on Kharkiv city, and the oblast in general - in the North. It will be free to advance in the centre and bypass (if still heavily defended) or capture Slavyansk and area moving directly to the City of Dnepropetrovsk on the Dnieper River - which is to become the new westerly border of a new Novorossyia (New Russia).
The last front to be explained is the Kherson/Odessa areas. Once the NAF capture and secure Melitopol, the Ukraine defences along the Crimea border are exposed from the rear. At that time the separatist region of Moldova, Transnistria, which houses Russian and "Transnistria Self-Defence Forces", is likely to strike southward toward Odessa.
All these moves combined mean a few things. Firstly, it appears that although there are peace or cease fire talks ongoing, they are likely for show at best. Secondly it means that Ukraine will cease to function as a country. Its already desperate financial position will be crippled by the loss of one half of the country - the most resource rich part. Thirdly it means that Ukraine will become landlocked and essentially a new "pocket - like" area. If NATO were to move into this area, they would be surrounded on three sides by Russia, Novorossyia, and Belarus. It would be indefensible. Therefore, Ukraine, or what's left of it, turns into an economically barren no mans land between East and West.
In any case, the "Mouse Trap" is done, the "Rope a Dope" is done, and now it's time for the "Left-Right" combination punches. I understand Putin is a judo champ, and he may have a judo analogy for this, but for now this is mine.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
The Ukrainian Genocide.
This woman's eyes have haunted me since 4:00 p.m. Ukraine time, June 2, 2014. Her name was Inna Kukuruza. She was a wife, a mother, and a citizen of Luhansk city. On that day, June 2, 2014, she made a fatal mistake walking past the City's Administration building after work. She, and many others, had her life ended in a hail of unguided rockets fired by a lone Ukraine air force jet. However, unlike the rest of those dead around her, she did not die immediately. She lay there for seconds, all filmed by the ever present phone cameras, and asked to speak with her daughter. Then she died. What the picture above doesn't show is her mangled legs, or her missing foot. She bled to death. My heart broke for her at that moment.
It was just the beginning of a campaign by the Ukraine military, and its paramilitary forces known as "National Guards", of killing civilians throughout the Ukraine provinces (known as Oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk. A slaughter that Europe has not seen since the civil war in the former Yugoslavia. Yet, through all the fog of war, a clear pattern has emerged. The Ukraine army approaches a "rebel" (NAF) area, normally a community. They establish fire bases around it, with varying types of artillery, and then they start shelling. It was the same in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Gorlovka, Donetsk, Luhansk, and every other community in the two break away provinces.
First the infrastructure is targeted. Specifically, the electrical power stations. Once these facilities are knocked out, and no power flows: sewage systems shut down; water systems shut down; hospitals can't operate well; commerce can't function; and on and on it goes. The clear and obvious strategy is to place the citizens of the community in misery. To turn them against the NAF in a psychological warfare conducted with artillery. Of course, the artillery and its ferocity, terrifies the people all on its own.
Second, health and transportation are targeted. Bus stations and train stations are hit. Hospitals of all types are hit. Even schools are hit. The pattern repeats itself in every community the Ukraine army assaults. There is no mistake. At this point the citizens are not just terrified, but also trapped. They can't leave the chaos. They are corralled in a hell no civilian should have to suffer.
Then, the civilians themselves are targeted. Specifically, their homes, apartments, shops, and city centres. The victims have ranged from the very elderly, and in some cases mental patients, to the youngest children and everyone in between. The shells and rockets don't have a conscience - the people that fire them are meant to.
Slavyansk became the model for all Ukraine army operations since. Surround the community. Do not allow escape. And fire. Small caliber mortar fire was the start. There were many reports of it on social media, but the "main stream media" refused to report it, or its damage. As if encouraged by that, the Ukraine army brought in larger mortars, then field artillery. They got away with all that too, despite pictures of the destruction and the civilian victims flooding social media. There was no outrage, or reporting in the main media. The NAF refused to budge, so the Ukraine army brought in even bigger guns - self-propelled 152mm guns. Monsters of artillery, these weapons created massive, indiscriminate damage and casualties. Not completely satisfied with this level of destruction, the Ukraine army started using air burst white phosphorous shells at communities on the outskirts of Slavyansk, and then Slavyansk itself. The Russian government drew the line there and raised concerns about it at the UN. It was dismissed, and the Ukraine army carried on.
Then came the battles around Donetsk city, Gorloka and Luhansk city. A whole new form of artillery was deployed - Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). At the low end of these systems is the GRAD, and on the high end the "Tornado", "Hurricane, and "Smerch". They can fire up to 40 high explosive rockets at a time. They were designed by the Soviets to break up tank formation and create chaos. They are lethal and can level entire complete grid squares when deployed enmasse. They are also unguided. The use of MLRS took the ferocity of the conflict to an all new level, and with it a rapidly increasing civilian death and wounded toll. Pictures of grandmothers , fathers, children, and even priests - with their bodies torn to pieces - began flooding the social media. So grotesque were the results that You Tube began taking films of the victims off their site.
As if this wasn't a great enough outrage, the Ukraine army upped the ante one more time. On July 29, 2014 the Ukraine army fired four, of a reported five available, SS-21 ballistic missiles at the NAF held community of Snezhnoe. The missiles are massive, and carry a warhead of up to 1000 lbs. They can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. In this case they carried high explosive warheads. These were designed as, and remain, weapons of mass destruction. Even the US government admitted the missiles were fired - yet they did not cause any damage. The reason? Russian S-300, S-400 anti-missile/air units on the Russian border shot them down before they impacted Snezhnoe. If the Russians had not intervened, the loss of life would have been in the thousands. It is here that apparently the US and West were prepared to draw the line on the Ukraine army. There was no condemnation by the West, but there was also no condemnation of Russia for shooting them down.
The death toll so far in the Ukraine war against the Donbass Region (Luhansk and Donetsk) was estimated to be around 10,000. The wounded many more times that. Over 250,000 refugees have fled - mostly to temporary camps lining the Russian side of the border. Those that remain are suffering constant shelling. Constant terror. But, that's the point of it - right? The Ukraine government always refers to the NAF as "terrorists", yet the only side terrorizing its citizenship seems to be the Ukraine government itself. The Geneva Convention is supposed to protect civilians and civilian institutions at a time of war, however the lawyers in the crowd claim this isn't a war. It's war-light. It's an internal insurrection. Although the Ukraine government itself has accused Russia of invading it at the UN Security Council. It would seem, therefore, that the Ukraine government considers itself in a state of war. In that case, the rules of war as outlined in the Geneva Convention should apply to them.
If, for whatever reason, the lawyers succeed and the Ukraine government is not restrained by the Geneva Convention, then there is always the International Court of the Hague. It clearly details that attacks made against civilian populations, or terrorizing civilian populations, or forcefully moving populations is a crime against humanity. There can be no doubt in any right thinking person's mind that what Ukraine has committed against the Donbass is a crime against humanity. Inna Kukuruza was a member of humanity. She did not deserve to die in that blood soaked street in Luhansk city. There was no need. She did no wrong. Her only crime was to be a citizen of a break away region of Ukraine. As far as I'm concerned, Ukraine will never be able to whipe that spot of her blood off their hands. Her final appeal to speak to her daughter, her eyes betraying her terror, the helplessness, will never leave me.
Saturday, July 26, 2014
The Mouse Trap-Battle of Ukraine
It might seem like a strange headline, but the war in Ukraine really is over already. Some wars have their ending written the moment they are started - the fighting and dying being the interlude between the two. Take for example World War II. Hitler was warned by his Generals not to start the war in 1939, because Germany's rearmament was not ready and the prospect of over extension was obvious. Hitler didn't listen, and the moment German tanks crossed the Polish border the war was lost - for Germany. The case is remarkably the same here.
What started as a very obvious western coup of the then Russia friendly government of Ukraine turned into a civil war. Although it is denied, by both sides, the West and Russia have fed and lead the opposing forces in the Ukraine from the get go. However, unlike almost all other proxy wars the two have waged against each other since WWII, this time the collision between the two has become almost inevitable. It almost happened earlier in Syria when Chinese and Russian war ships steamed into the waters off its coast to challenge an immanent American-led assault. The US blinked, and the rest is history. Now the battlefield is Ukraine.
The Novorossyia forces (NAF), also known as separatists to the Ukrainians, led by Igor Stelkov (former Russia army Colonel), created what can best be described as an "elastic defence". What that means is they spread themselves out thinly around towns, villages and cities throughout the Ukraine provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk that they claim as their own. Rather than negotiate with the NAF, the newly self-appointed government of Ukraine immediately responded with military force. First with weak incursions by a handful of armored personnel carriers (APCs), which were chased by residents out of communities, and then more radical "Right Sector" (neo-nazis) and "National Guard" units.
The Ukrainians gradually took each little community or town one by one. The NAF gradually withdrew to the areas directly surrounding their two cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. On the face of it, the Ukraine army appears on the verge of victory, but things aren't always what they seem. Firstly, as the NAF slowly withdrew from their elastic defence, they took a very serious toll on the Ukraine army's equipment and troops. Estimates are in the tens of thousands of deaths and wounded. The Government of Ukraine vigorously denies it, but the decree of mandatory service last week strongly suggest the numbers are true, and Ukraine needs replacements. The NAF, of course, are also taking serious casualties, but they are in reinforced defensive positions giving them a strong advantage. The traditional figure, if the attackers do not have air superiority, which in this case Ukraine does not, is about 10-1. Given each city is rumored to have at least 10,000 fighters, the Ukrainians would need about 150-200 thousand troops to take them. They are nowhere near that.
How then does Ukraine propose to overcome this tactical problem? It seems they intend to rely on massive artillery. In particular, the use of Grad and Smerch rocket artillery. Both these weapons systems were designed to tear apart NATO tank formations by the Soviets. They fire multiple rockets in each salvo, and flatten the ground grid by grid. Ukraine has been using these rocket systems already in smaller locals, but these are large cities - 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. Herein comes the part where you lose the war once you start it.
To fight a war in a cities of this size is a massive effort. The casualties are huge. The destruction wide spread. The civilian casualties unconscionable. Take the battles in Syria's cities for example. Or Stalingrad, Leningrad, Berlin, etc. The Ukraine army is slowly, methodically being drawn into a trap of its own making. For starters, it has transferred a massive amount of its men and equipment from the West of Ukraine to the front in the East. Those forces are focused around the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and being warn down. These are its best units. However, the biggest danger for Ukraine is that the vast majority of its army is now within range of Russian artillery/rocket forces without those same forces having to leave Russia. Furthermore, the Ukraine forces are effectively without any air support.
I call it the "Mouse Trap". Russian forces, having lured the Ukraine army east, with the NAF being the cheese, can now trap those forces behind the Dnieper River - unable to defend the western part of Ukraine - including Kiev. That would be the metal part of the bar coming down on the neck. A good example of this is the Donetsk pocket that formed between the Russian border and southern Donetsk province. Ukrainian forces, following ambitious orders of the new President of Ukraine Poroshenko, sent 3 of the best and largest battalions they had to close all the border points between Russia and Ukraine. These forces swept north of Maripol and continued along the Russian/Donetsk border capturing crossing after crossing - until they came up against fortified emplacements waiting for them around Torez area. Then, suddenly, way back where they started the swing, the NAF captured a relatively small position that cut the entire force off from any resupply. Without air support or resupply, units like the 79th and 72nd airmobile brigades were systematically destroyed where they were trapped. Many have died. Many have surrendered to Russia at the border. Most of their equipment is destroyed. That battle continues. Point is, they were lured in and then destroyed, helplessly.
On a much bigger scale, this is what I believe Russia is doing to Ukraine, and in a sense its western allies. The calculation is: will the West go to war with Russia over Ukraine? The obvious answer is no. Being that the answer is no, Russia has a free hand to really act at any time it chooses in Ukraine. It may allow Ukraine to wither away in a battle of bloody attrition in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, and then move in when its citizens can no longer stand the scenes of civilian casualties and destruction. It may choose to move sooner to save the inhabitants, and bring its people along board. One thing it certainly will not allow is a NATO presence of any kind in eastern Ukraine, and western Ukraine is also questionable. Putin still sits back, with many cards up his sleeve, with the cat like smile that has become famous. Europe entertains the thought of already deflating economies, and what a Russian withdrawl from their economies would mean - instant depression. The US has too many balls in play around the world to react, and even if they could, what can they do to the Russians that the Russians can't do back to them? Not much.
It's a game of chess. A friend once called it Wizards Chess (after the famous Harry Potter scene). I call this particular strategy the "Mouse Trap", and Ukraine is the mouse.
What started as a very obvious western coup of the then Russia friendly government of Ukraine turned into a civil war. Although it is denied, by both sides, the West and Russia have fed and lead the opposing forces in the Ukraine from the get go. However, unlike almost all other proxy wars the two have waged against each other since WWII, this time the collision between the two has become almost inevitable. It almost happened earlier in Syria when Chinese and Russian war ships steamed into the waters off its coast to challenge an immanent American-led assault. The US blinked, and the rest is history. Now the battlefield is Ukraine.
The Novorossyia forces (NAF), also known as separatists to the Ukrainians, led by Igor Stelkov (former Russia army Colonel), created what can best be described as an "elastic defence". What that means is they spread themselves out thinly around towns, villages and cities throughout the Ukraine provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk that they claim as their own. Rather than negotiate with the NAF, the newly self-appointed government of Ukraine immediately responded with military force. First with weak incursions by a handful of armored personnel carriers (APCs), which were chased by residents out of communities, and then more radical "Right Sector" (neo-nazis) and "National Guard" units.
The Ukrainians gradually took each little community or town one by one. The NAF gradually withdrew to the areas directly surrounding their two cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. On the face of it, the Ukraine army appears on the verge of victory, but things aren't always what they seem. Firstly, as the NAF slowly withdrew from their elastic defence, they took a very serious toll on the Ukraine army's equipment and troops. Estimates are in the tens of thousands of deaths and wounded. The Government of Ukraine vigorously denies it, but the decree of mandatory service last week strongly suggest the numbers are true, and Ukraine needs replacements. The NAF, of course, are also taking serious casualties, but they are in reinforced defensive positions giving them a strong advantage. The traditional figure, if the attackers do not have air superiority, which in this case Ukraine does not, is about 10-1. Given each city is rumored to have at least 10,000 fighters, the Ukrainians would need about 150-200 thousand troops to take them. They are nowhere near that.
How then does Ukraine propose to overcome this tactical problem? It seems they intend to rely on massive artillery. In particular, the use of Grad and Smerch rocket artillery. Both these weapons systems were designed to tear apart NATO tank formations by the Soviets. They fire multiple rockets in each salvo, and flatten the ground grid by grid. Ukraine has been using these rocket systems already in smaller locals, but these are large cities - 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. Herein comes the part where you lose the war once you start it.
To fight a war in a cities of this size is a massive effort. The casualties are huge. The destruction wide spread. The civilian casualties unconscionable. Take the battles in Syria's cities for example. Or Stalingrad, Leningrad, Berlin, etc. The Ukraine army is slowly, methodically being drawn into a trap of its own making. For starters, it has transferred a massive amount of its men and equipment from the West of Ukraine to the front in the East. Those forces are focused around the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and being warn down. These are its best units. However, the biggest danger for Ukraine is that the vast majority of its army is now within range of Russian artillery/rocket forces without those same forces having to leave Russia. Furthermore, the Ukraine forces are effectively without any air support.
I call it the "Mouse Trap". Russian forces, having lured the Ukraine army east, with the NAF being the cheese, can now trap those forces behind the Dnieper River - unable to defend the western part of Ukraine - including Kiev. That would be the metal part of the bar coming down on the neck. A good example of this is the Donetsk pocket that formed between the Russian border and southern Donetsk province. Ukrainian forces, following ambitious orders of the new President of Ukraine Poroshenko, sent 3 of the best and largest battalions they had to close all the border points between Russia and Ukraine. These forces swept north of Maripol and continued along the Russian/Donetsk border capturing crossing after crossing - until they came up against fortified emplacements waiting for them around Torez area. Then, suddenly, way back where they started the swing, the NAF captured a relatively small position that cut the entire force off from any resupply. Without air support or resupply, units like the 79th and 72nd airmobile brigades were systematically destroyed where they were trapped. Many have died. Many have surrendered to Russia at the border. Most of their equipment is destroyed. That battle continues. Point is, they were lured in and then destroyed, helplessly.
On a much bigger scale, this is what I believe Russia is doing to Ukraine, and in a sense its western allies. The calculation is: will the West go to war with Russia over Ukraine? The obvious answer is no. Being that the answer is no, Russia has a free hand to really act at any time it chooses in Ukraine. It may allow Ukraine to wither away in a battle of bloody attrition in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, and then move in when its citizens can no longer stand the scenes of civilian casualties and destruction. It may choose to move sooner to save the inhabitants, and bring its people along board. One thing it certainly will not allow is a NATO presence of any kind in eastern Ukraine, and western Ukraine is also questionable. Putin still sits back, with many cards up his sleeve, with the cat like smile that has become famous. Europe entertains the thought of already deflating economies, and what a Russian withdrawl from their economies would mean - instant depression. The US has too many balls in play around the world to react, and even if they could, what can they do to the Russians that the Russians can't do back to them? Not much.
It's a game of chess. A friend once called it Wizards Chess (after the famous Harry Potter scene). I call this particular strategy the "Mouse Trap", and Ukraine is the mouse.
Monday, June 9, 2014
Ukraine - the Bee War
Lately, as some of you may know, I've been closely following the events happening in Ukraine. There are a number of reasons for that. Firstly, it is a conflict that has significant geopolitical ramifications that can potentially affect all of humanity - including us of course here on the Rock. Secondly, it involves military tactics which, as a retired infantry officer, I find personally interesting. Finally, I believe there is a need to cast a light on conflict from time to time in order to avoid atrocities against civilians.
The conflict itself has been portrayed by both sides as a sort of "clash of belief systems". On the Ukraine side the separatists in East Ukraine are simply puppets of the Russian government, and in many cases Russian forces pretending to be locals. On the Russian side the Ukraine forces are "neo-nazis", who took power from an elected government, and who are intent on persecuting the Russian populations of East Ukraine. That pretty much sums it up. However, as the saying goes: Truth is the first casualty of war.
In fact, the war in Ukraine has its origins in, believe it or not, the honey bee. The little insect that carries a massively important role - feeding us. The bee pollinates crops, and without bees we starve. That sums it up. Bees are so important in fact that Russia had to export bees to the US, because the US bee population was in radical decline. Russia blamed the decline of the bees on genetically modified crops (GMO). Specifically, Russia accused Monsanto of killing off the bees by use of a neuro-toxin, derived from nicotine, in its crops. The issue boiled over when, last year, US President Obama passed a bill that has been nicknamed the "Monsanto Protection Act". Essentially, a bill protecting Monsanto from civil suits in the US over it's use of GMOs. Putin was so infuriated with Obama he made John Kerry wait for three hours for a scheduled diplomatic meeting. Putin also indicated that the issue could lead to world war.
Ukraine fits into this picture as the "bread basket" of Europe. It's massive fields and rich soil have made it a market for Monsanto, Cargill, and Dow. Until now, companies like Cargill produced seed in Ukraine, but not GMO seed. That is banned by Ukrainian law. The prominence of GMOs therefore stopped at the Polish border - some distance from Russia. The European Union itself had banned GMOs, but that has since changed - and that is key.
With the overthrow of the previous President, based primarily on not agreeing to sign an EU association agreement, the new authorities in Kiev have been pushing toward signing the agreement. That agreement will require Ukraine to allow practices like GMOs. That places GMOs right on Russia's border, and directly affects the purity of its crops and, more importantly, the famous Russian honey bee. Yet it seems like such a small thing to bring the world to the brink of war over. However, look at the ramifications of it.
If the Russians are correct, and certainly all scientific research supports the view that bees are dangerously declining in population, then crops will fail due to lack of pollination. If crops fail then people starve. The big question would be: Have companies like Monsanto developed GMOs that don't require pollination? If that were true, it would leave the ability to feed the population in the hands of very few. In this case, US multinationals. Naturally, one would assume, the Russians and Chinese in particular, and perhaps many others, would consider this a threat to their national interests.
It is noteworthy that, until recently, the Chinese had negotiated an agreement with the Ukraine government to lease 10% of the country's farmland for a period of fifty years. Part of that deal included building a massive bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea. The area of Ukraine that was to see this Chinese lease? The Ukraine province of Donetsk. The Chinese also ban GMOs from their country and food chain. The deal fell through, and just a month ago the Chinese announced they were cancelling their commitment to build that new massive land link from Russia to Crimea. On the flip side, Monsanto, Cargill, etc are going full force in Ukraine. Monsanto has promised a new $150 million facility to produce non-GMO corn there. Where are Cargill, Monsanto's etc plants and prospective plants located? You guessed it - the Ukrainian province of Donetsk.
Now many observers have looked at the Ukraine situation and asked themselves why is Putin so invested in Ukraine? Why has he sent Russian special forces into Luhansk and Donetsk to organize and train locals, and to actually fight the Ukraine army? Why do these rebel forces keep receiving supplies of equipment and volunteers from Russia? Why does Russia allow its border to be used? The reason it seems is quite clear. The Donetsk province, with Slavyansk as its strong point, is strategic for a reason. Not because Russia wants to rebuild its empire. Not because it wants to protect the Russian language or Russians living there. It is strategic, because without the province of Donetsk the Ukraine government, Monsanto, etc cannot implement a GMO strategy in the country. That is the chess game unfolding between Russia and the West.
Putin has apparently stepped back from an outright invasion of east Ukraine to an alternative strategy. That is, "make all the moves you want with the EU, the US and GMOs Ukraine, but I will hold the one piece of ground that you need to implement that strategy. Without Donetsk, all your agreements and efforts are for nothing." Putin has adopted a strategy of irregular forces, for now, that suits his purpose. He will make sure they get whatever they need to defeat the Ukraine forces in Donetsk, and to a lesser extent in Luhansk. The casualties among civilians will be high under such a strategy, and that is unfolding now in Donetsk in general, and in Slavyansk particularly. It is in effect an asymmetrical war strategy designed to hold the province of Donetsk.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine government is faced with deciding whether or not an asymmetrical war with Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk is worth it. On the one hand it may lose that war, and both provinces, and also its GMO backer's interests. On the other hand, if it manages to defeat the "rebels" and pacify Donetsk and Luhansk it almost certainly means a Russian invasion. That is the chess match under way. In a strange twist of coincidence, Ukraine's newly elected President Petro Poroshenko owns a massive chocolate corporation named "Roshen", that is apparently in a relationship with Monsanto to develop a "frost resistant" cocoa been crop to grow in Ukraine
http://wwwghanapolitics.blogspot.ca/2014/03/ukrainian-chocolate-king-to-collaborate.html
The conflict itself has been portrayed by both sides as a sort of "clash of belief systems". On the Ukraine side the separatists in East Ukraine are simply puppets of the Russian government, and in many cases Russian forces pretending to be locals. On the Russian side the Ukraine forces are "neo-nazis", who took power from an elected government, and who are intent on persecuting the Russian populations of East Ukraine. That pretty much sums it up. However, as the saying goes: Truth is the first casualty of war.
In fact, the war in Ukraine has its origins in, believe it or not, the honey bee. The little insect that carries a massively important role - feeding us. The bee pollinates crops, and without bees we starve. That sums it up. Bees are so important in fact that Russia had to export bees to the US, because the US bee population was in radical decline. Russia blamed the decline of the bees on genetically modified crops (GMO). Specifically, Russia accused Monsanto of killing off the bees by use of a neuro-toxin, derived from nicotine, in its crops. The issue boiled over when, last year, US President Obama passed a bill that has been nicknamed the "Monsanto Protection Act". Essentially, a bill protecting Monsanto from civil suits in the US over it's use of GMOs. Putin was so infuriated with Obama he made John Kerry wait for three hours for a scheduled diplomatic meeting. Putin also indicated that the issue could lead to world war.
Ukraine fits into this picture as the "bread basket" of Europe. It's massive fields and rich soil have made it a market for Monsanto, Cargill, and Dow. Until now, companies like Cargill produced seed in Ukraine, but not GMO seed. That is banned by Ukrainian law. The prominence of GMOs therefore stopped at the Polish border - some distance from Russia. The European Union itself had banned GMOs, but that has since changed - and that is key.
With the overthrow of the previous President, based primarily on not agreeing to sign an EU association agreement, the new authorities in Kiev have been pushing toward signing the agreement. That agreement will require Ukraine to allow practices like GMOs. That places GMOs right on Russia's border, and directly affects the purity of its crops and, more importantly, the famous Russian honey bee. Yet it seems like such a small thing to bring the world to the brink of war over. However, look at the ramifications of it.
If the Russians are correct, and certainly all scientific research supports the view that bees are dangerously declining in population, then crops will fail due to lack of pollination. If crops fail then people starve. The big question would be: Have companies like Monsanto developed GMOs that don't require pollination? If that were true, it would leave the ability to feed the population in the hands of very few. In this case, US multinationals. Naturally, one would assume, the Russians and Chinese in particular, and perhaps many others, would consider this a threat to their national interests.
It is noteworthy that, until recently, the Chinese had negotiated an agreement with the Ukraine government to lease 10% of the country's farmland for a period of fifty years. Part of that deal included building a massive bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea. The area of Ukraine that was to see this Chinese lease? The Ukraine province of Donetsk. The Chinese also ban GMOs from their country and food chain. The deal fell through, and just a month ago the Chinese announced they were cancelling their commitment to build that new massive land link from Russia to Crimea. On the flip side, Monsanto, Cargill, etc are going full force in Ukraine. Monsanto has promised a new $150 million facility to produce non-GMO corn there. Where are Cargill, Monsanto's etc plants and prospective plants located? You guessed it - the Ukrainian province of Donetsk.
Now many observers have looked at the Ukraine situation and asked themselves why is Putin so invested in Ukraine? Why has he sent Russian special forces into Luhansk and Donetsk to organize and train locals, and to actually fight the Ukraine army? Why do these rebel forces keep receiving supplies of equipment and volunteers from Russia? Why does Russia allow its border to be used? The reason it seems is quite clear. The Donetsk province, with Slavyansk as its strong point, is strategic for a reason. Not because Russia wants to rebuild its empire. Not because it wants to protect the Russian language or Russians living there. It is strategic, because without the province of Donetsk the Ukraine government, Monsanto, etc cannot implement a GMO strategy in the country. That is the chess game unfolding between Russia and the West.
Putin has apparently stepped back from an outright invasion of east Ukraine to an alternative strategy. That is, "make all the moves you want with the EU, the US and GMOs Ukraine, but I will hold the one piece of ground that you need to implement that strategy. Without Donetsk, all your agreements and efforts are for nothing." Putin has adopted a strategy of irregular forces, for now, that suits his purpose. He will make sure they get whatever they need to defeat the Ukraine forces in Donetsk, and to a lesser extent in Luhansk. The casualties among civilians will be high under such a strategy, and that is unfolding now in Donetsk in general, and in Slavyansk particularly. It is in effect an asymmetrical war strategy designed to hold the province of Donetsk.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine government is faced with deciding whether or not an asymmetrical war with Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk is worth it. On the one hand it may lose that war, and both provinces, and also its GMO backer's interests. On the other hand, if it manages to defeat the "rebels" and pacify Donetsk and Luhansk it almost certainly means a Russian invasion. That is the chess match under way. In a strange twist of coincidence, Ukraine's newly elected President Petro Poroshenko owns a massive chocolate corporation named "Roshen", that is apparently in a relationship with Monsanto to develop a "frost resistant" cocoa been crop to grow in Ukraine
http://wwwghanapolitics.blogspot.ca/2014/03/ukrainian-chocolate-king-to-collaborate.html
Whatever your perspective on this conflict is, the role of the lowly honey bee is one worth considering. Is Ukraine really about all the silly twists and turns, or is it a very dangerous game of business?
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