Taking Back the Upper Churchill Falls Now

Hydro Quebec is our number one competitor now for hydro electric generation. They know it and so do we. With the announcement of the Lower Churchill development, and more importantly the sub-sea cable links, Newfoundland and Labrador are officially walking in Hydro Quebec's perceived turf. Hydro Quebec are the type of people who don't like to share their turf. Be that as it may, we are there. The question is: Do you allow the other crowd to survive fiscally or do you go for the jugular.

It seems that there are those in the province that are resigned to allowing the Power Contract of 1969 to expire naturally in 2041. I disagree. The economics of that issue can not be ignored for another thirty years. Some are suggesting that a large tax will be placed on the power delivered after the renewal term comes into force in 2016.  They argue the lost revenues can be made up while utilizing Hydro Quebec's transmission system. On the surface that sounds like a reasonable idea. However, it is not utilizing the economic dependancy that Hydro Quebec has developed on the Upper Churchill. In other words, it allows Hydro Quebec to continue on relatively strong until 2041 which is not in our long term interest as a competitor.

The proof is in the numbers. Hydro Quebec purchases power from the Upper Churchill for $0.0025425 cents per KWH until 2016. When the agreement automatically renews in 2016 the price will be $0.0020000 cents per KWH. Hard to believe, but yes, we will be receiving 20% less for the power until 2041. The cost of the profits lost by that reduction over the life of the contract, at today's rates and without inflation, will be between $71 billion and $95 billion. A staggering figure of lost revenue.

The real question is how important to Hydro Quebec is the Upper Churchill. Again it's in the numbers. You will hear many people, especially in Quebec, say Hydro Quebec has a surplus of power and is bringing on new power generation all the time. That while it's nice to have the 5428 MW of power from the Upper Churchill it's not the end of the world if they lose it. Those people base their assumptions on the quantity without looking at the profitability.

Hydro Quebec's average cost to produce power from it's many plants and dams is approximately $0.06 cents per KWH. That does not include transmisssion and distribution costs. They receive our power for $0.0025425 cents per KWH. Translation: It takes 25 James Bay Dams to equal 1 Upper Churchill Falls - profitability wise. Further translation: Hydro Quebec can not lose the Upper Churchill or all the profitability of their corporation will be lost. They will be forced to try and raise domestic Quebec rates to make up the difference, which in turn would be taxed back by the federal government in equalization transfers.

A larger problem would be debt sustainability. Most Hydro Quebec projects are built on 35 to 50 year projections of revenue and costs. All their financing, primarily through bonds, are based on those projections. The corporation's credit ratings are similarily affixed. In other words, the loss of profitability effects all the corporation's operations - nationally and internationally.

Conversely, NALCOR could strike at the heart of their chief competitor early in the game. Gain the upper hand on the long term battle, and be in position to compete on a much better fiscal footing. Strategically, it is as important to stop your competitor as it is to try and advance yourself. Hydro Quebec certainly understands this principle.

A Little History Lesson

Premier Jean Lesage, 1965:

"The primary and absolute condition is that all energy that will enter Quebec becomes property of Hydro Quebec. That condition ... has always been the same, and we will never negotiate from another basis. We will never permit, under any condition, others to build a transmission line on Quebec territory, or let others transport the energy produced at Churchill Falls whatever the destination of that energy, whether it be to the United States or the other provinces." Le Devoir, 1965.

"And they think Newfoundland and Labrador are being irrational and disruptive to the national fabric."
Brad Cabana, Rock Solid Politics, 2010.

Just a thought for today

Montreal Gazzette, 30 March, 2010 : Pauline Marois, Leader of the Opposition in Quebec: " Every time we raise hydro rates, it lowers transfer payments from Ottawa."
Montreal Gazzette, 19 November, 2010: Jean Charest, Premier of Quebec: " They (Newfoundland and Labrador) can ask for it (subsea cable subsidy), but they know Quebec is opposed to it because it would be an intervention in the market."
Montreal Gazzette, 19 November, 2010: Nathalie Normandeau, Minister of natural resources Quebec: "...has received assurance from federal minister Christian Paradis that Ottawa will not directly fund the construction of transmission lines."

coming soon - TAKING BACK THE UPPER CHURCHILL - NOW

Quebec INC vs Newfoundland and Labrador

Like their ancestors before them, the bedrock of Quebec's modern economic prowess pushes forward into the world to carve out their place. The push to overcome harsh environments, survival, linguistic challenges and a never ending need to prove themselves to the world may sound like the New France of old, but it equally reflects the corporate culture of modern Quebec. The need to master and conquer all before them. That leads us to today.
Power Corporation of Canada, Hydro Quebec, Casse de Depot et placement du Quebec, GDS Suez, Areva, Transcontinental Media, and so on. Massive corporations, operating on an international basis, and controlling more and more economies - strategically. They are also all French. They also all share members of their boards and often have a part ownership of each other with the exception of Hydro Quebec and the Casse which are controlled by the government of Quebec - although the government of Quebec is highly "influenced" in it's operation and makeup by these corporations. Total Oil of France, partially owned by Power Corp of Canada, will likely be a player in Quebec's offshore future - if it has one. It is already active in the Alberta oil sands - recently taking over a smaller Calgary competitor for a large ownership of a tar sands project. The Casse has taken over Hydro Quebec's Gas Metro, now Valener, freeing it of the costs of a gas industry in decline, and taxes. SNC Lavelin, another Quebec multi-national followed suit and sold it's shares this month to the Casse. Hydro Quebec, through it's subsidiary Hydro Quebec International, has bought controlling interest in distribution lines and power generating facilities in the US, Australia, South America, Panama, and China. Most recently, the day after Premier Danny Williams announced the Lower Churchill project, North East Utilities, the largest utility in New England (in the process of getting bigger by taking over NSTAR -Massachusetts largest utility) made formal application to build a massive transmission line from Windsor Quebec to New Hampshire. A message of sorts.
In the bigger picture, GDF Suez (France) is in the process of taking over International Power (Britain) with the assistance of an American corporation's 7% proxy vote. The new corporation will be easily the world's largest utility. Unfortunately, it will also be in a strategic partnership with Hydro Quebec - making an already monolithic Crown corporation even more monopolistic. The nimble, and seemingly well coordinated Quebec corporate class has shown itself to be world class players, and that must be recognized.
That brings us to the Lower Churchill deal. Newfoundland and Labrador, as represented by Premier Danny Williams, is bucking this trend. One could better describe it as a tidal wave. A brave stand by a brave man. A bravery that most people of the province don't fully understand, but should. Even though Danny is a wealthy man, his funds are coffee money for these other people. That is why Quebec scoffs at the government here and it's deal. However, that scoffing is superficial. A people that want to be the DeBeers of energy do not want any players in the market other than themselves. They cannot set the rate the market will pay if another is under selling them. If they cannot set the market then they cannot predict the serviceability of their debts. If their revenues decline, then their debt serviceability declines and their bonds get downgraded. If their bonds get degraded their debt servicing costs go up. Then the cycle keeps repeating itself to the point where the massive monolith collapses. Make no mistake, this is their main concern.
The problem for Newfoundland and Labrador, as illustrated by Hydro Quebec's alliances, is that it does not have a large enough strategic partner in this sector. It is not tied into the corporate circle if you will. The large oil corporations are willing to come in and develop the oil/gas resources, but have not been involved in developing the province's hydro power or it's distribution. Emera, Newfoundland and Labrador's strategic partner, is a small and publicly traded company. As such it would be an easy target for any one of Quebec's alliance to take over - hostile or otherwise. It would seem a logical move on Quebec's part to have any smaller power distributor, which agrees to do business with NALCOR, taken over by another larger friend. While Newfoundland and Labrador may have the resource, Quebec may have the friends to stop it's distribution rendering it useless. Do not be surprised to see a takeover attempt of Emera in the coming year or, even better for Quebec, after the deal is finalized. This is one of the reasons Hydro Quebec normally takes a controlling interest in it's distributors.
What Newfoundland and Labrador desperately needs is a very large friend in the jungle. An international corporation large enough to withstand the other alliance, and with access to the US market. An access that can be defended and guaranteed. Perhaps some of the oil corporations with large investments in the offshore might be a logical choice. After all, if you can learn one thing from studying Quebec's economic development, alliances are based on intertwined interests based in the province and projecting outwards.
Until then, I fear, Newfoundland and Labrador's government will be subjected to a covert, if not overt, campaign by those that wish to see Quebec's monopoly stay in place. By way of example, The Telegram has been assaulting the Premier, without balance in it's editorials. The Telegram is owned by the previously mentioned Transcontinental Media - Montreal. The Liberal Party of Newfoundland has recently signed on some major Conservative talent for it's public relations. The former Liberal premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Roger Grimes, has suddenly come out of the woodwork to attack  Premier Williams. The aforementioned Power Corporation of Canada is publicly known to be the source of primary influence within the Liberal Party in Canada. Although, Jacques Parizeau's brother, and Bob Rae's brother have sat on it's board of directors. As does the Conservative's Don Mazinkowsky.
Then of course there is the CBC, with it's head office in Montreal, that has been at the forefront of attacks on the William's government on many fronts as of late.
In the end, Newfoundland and Labrador deserves to control and exploit it's resources without interference. The people here have suffered through the economic enslavement of the Upper Churchill contract for too long. If Quebec wants peace, and to carry on, perhaps it should recognize the imperialist approach taken toward Newfoundland and Labrador was a historical misjudgement. Perhaps they should re-open the Upper Churchill Falls contract and renegotiate the rate to at least a 50% share of the profits on that power. Such a gesture would go along way with the people here - and likely the Premier. After all, hydro is just one source of energy. This battle will rage through all parts of Newfoundland and Labrador's economy to the unnecessary detriment of many of Quebec's companies and interests. Perhaps Quebec should go to it's own perceived grievances and realize that we should "do unto others as you would have them done unto you."

Prime Minister Harper, It's Time

Mark this day, the 18th day of November, 2010 on your calender and heart. Today our Premier, Danny Williams, announced a deal to develop the Lower Churchill. It was also signed by the Premier of Nova Scotia, NALCOR energy of Newfoundland and Labrador, Emera Energy, and the Innu people's representatives. A deal that will establish a power plant at Muskrat Falls, Labrador with power lines and sub-sea cables ending at North Sydney, Nova Scotia. A hybrid of private enterprise and Crown corporations. A partnership between two, and likely three, Atlantic provinces. In short, the people who live here for the people who live here. As it should be.

This is not the massive octopus that is Hydro Quebec, GDF Suez, and Enbridge. Put in another way: the Quebec government, the French government, and natural gas. You see Hydro Quebec is not just a little power company minding it's own business in northern Quebec. In reality Hydro Quebec is a huge multi-national corporation, with strategic partners that are foreign to this country, and are involved in: electrical power, natural gas distribution, banking, telecommunications, and even small water companies. Despite being prohibited from operating outside Quebec by their founding charter, Hydro Quebec owns several American power companies. They get around this by owning holding companies such as Noverco, Meg Holdings, and the list goes on. They own American companies such as Bucksport Energy (Maine), Green Mountain Power (Vermont), and Vermont Gas Systems (Vermont) among others. In the same week as Hydro Quebec made an offer to purchase New Brunswick's power utlity GDF Suez purchased a Montreal electrical company that will supply all of Hydro Quebec's power transformers up to 100 MVA. Not to mention the 800 million dollar liquified gas plant near Quebec city that GDF Suez is planning on building.

No our little deal is nothing like that. We do not have a foreign country involved in our strategic alliance. What we need is OUR federal government to come in and do the right thing. This is where you come in Mr Harper.

We expect, and when I say we expect - I mean we expect, the federal government to satisfy it's national obligations to the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Those obligations are: to provide the requested funding to subsidize the construction of the sub-sea cable links as per the joint provincial request for said subsidies; to provide loan guarantees for the construction of the project; and last, but NOT least, complete it's obligations under the New Dawn Agreement between the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Innu peoples of the province. This must be done without delay.

You may ask why should the federal government become involved, and why should it offer up the loan guarantees. Simple. This Province is owed atleast that. It has been living under a draconian agreement since 1969 that has taken 22 billion dollars from the economy thus far, and will take a further 75-90 billion dollars before it expires in 2041. The federal government, despite the usual separatist politics, should have stepped in years if not generations ago to right this wrong - but chose to turn a blind eye. Now the inevitable result of that policy is here. This current deal is the best case scenario for Canada now. Should the federal government not follow through, and do the right thing, I suspect Newfoundland and Labrador could be in the balance. There is such a feeling of treachery in the province that should the federal government side with Hydro Quebec (Quebec) on this issue the end result would be catastrophic and tragic.

Mr Harper, rise above the politics, rise above your connections, and do the right thing by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. Do it now.

Newfoundland and Labrador's Doctor Decision

Everywhere around us Healthcare is front and centre. Whether here in Newfoundland and Labrador, or in a wealthy place like Alberta. Just yesterday the CBC reported that Alberta Emergency rooms were aiming for a success rate of 45% admitted within 8 hours of waiting. That is really sad, and in a place where most of us believe doctors are aplenty - atleast by Canadian standards. The causes are well known: aging populations; upside down demographic trends; shrinking tax bases; deficit budgets; sky rocketting intergovernmental debt; and of course a shortage of medical personel.

In Newfoundland and Labrador the boiling point has been reached between the government and doctors. The doctors claiming to be under paid compared to others in the region and country. The government claiming their offer is more than fair. Those are the essential battle lines. Issues such as quality of life, working conditions, and doctor shortages being implied symptoms of the primary cause - money or lack thereof. According to Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ), figuring in all forms of income for doctors, whether salary or fee for service, doctors in this province are 6.78% less than the national average of $224,875 (2008/09 numbers). Dr. Lewis, President of the Newfoundland and Labrador Medical Association, states the doctor's offer would result in an eighty million dollar increase to the existing three hundred and thirty million dollars currently spent on physician's compensation - or a twenty five percent hike over all.

The problem with just throwing money at the problem is that it does nothing to fix the problem. If that were the case Alberta would have no problems - but they do. It seems the issue is not fixing the problems inherent within the health care system, but rather supplying enough funds to keep the bandaids in place. Not a good solution for anyone in the long run. Afterall, even doctors will one day need a doctor they can count on. If all things, even the medical field, are driven by financial reward, and if financial reward is determined not by what you make, but rather what you keep, then perhaps a thought outside the box is in order.

For starters, the cost of living in Newfoundland is far below that of most of the country. A home that would cost you $150,000 here will cost you easily $350,000 elsewhere in Canada. Consider that the cost of borrowing for a mortgage normally doubles the initial cost of the home and the dollars become even more significant. The costs for insurances, groceries, utilities, recreation and property taxes are either much less or competetive with the rest of the country. Certainly, personnel costs and salaries are much less. From a business point of view, the overhead here is very competitive. Then factor in the upcoming and ever growing industrial resource build up of Newfoundland and Labrador. One of the few, very few, provinces with a "boom" unfolding for atleast a generation. Sounds like a good place to be, and as good a place to do business.

Medicine is a business afterall. It is a calling - without doubt. However, strip all the warm and fuzzies away from it and healthcare is a business. Perhaps the solution to our current labour strife, and a very possible answer to some of our recruitment issues, lies in a business approach to the matter. Whether it be personal or business income the truth is the bottom line. Not so much necessarily in what we make, but rather in what we keep. In a word - taxes. Perhaps the solution lies in an outside the box approach to taxes - provincial income taxes to be precise. By way of example, Alberta has a flat income tax of ten percent. Whether your income is 30,000 or 300,000 it's 10%. So for a physician, who would normally make anywhere from 220,000 to 450,000, that is significant when compared to a place like right next door in Saskatchewan. In Saskatchewan that same doctor would be paying in the range of say 36 %.

Perhaps our government could pass legislation designating physicians a "strategic service" and offer them a break on their provincial income tax. Make their provincial tax even less than Alberta's - say 5% flat. That would save the average physician more money than the current raise request. It would entice other doctors from different jurisdictions to practise here. The people of Newfoundland and Labrador would likely view it as a necessary step to help retain and grow the essential service that doctors are. This approach emphasizes the business advantage to doing business here for doctors. More money thrown, simply to be clawed back by higher tax brackets, federally and provincially, does nothing to improve the doctors bottom line, and therefore their morale. Let's think outside of the box, and move forward, as we are in almost every other aspect of Newfoundland and Labrador society.

Poker Quebec Style

Throughout Canadian history the politics of Quebec have been a virtual theatre for the rest of the country. We watch the never ending charades play themselves out from decade to decade and generation to generation. It is almost like being at a perpetual state of war from the Orwellian 1984. Never is it satisfied. Never has just the right peace been achieved. Many in this country consider this type of politics to be deliberately designed to "milk the system" for all it's worth. Some say it is just a symptom of the underlying inferiority complex that seems to pervade most utterances from the government of Quebec. Yet others will argue, while not excluding the previous two points, that the government of Quebec is in a sense brainwashing it's people to believe they are constantly persecuted and wronged and therefore are entitled to separate for the good of all. In the west, some folks think it's a deliberate strategy to cause such resentment that not only would we not fight to keep Quebec, but that we would in fact be happy to see her go.

Some or all of these arguements may have an element of truth, but how do they manage it? How does the government of Quebec keep coming up with claims over this or that? What is the basis for their grievances?

Purely and simply - it's poker. They are the best political poker players in the country, and they are playing against people who for the most part don't want to offend them by calling their bluff. Often, it takes a Quebecer to call the bluff of the government of Quebec. A few instances: Prime Minister Trudeau invoking the War Measures Act and putting troops on the street in Quebec; and Prime Minister Chretien stating that if Canada can be divided then so can Quebec. That one got the separatists so riled up they proclaimed that Quebec's territory was sacred. This is the line of thought I wish to follow.

Is Quebec's territory really sacred? Based on what? While prior to the Conquest of "New France" in 1760 there was no Quebec. Quebec was formed by the British in 1763. The inhabitants were granted the use of their language and civil code. Those that did not want to accept British rule were given eighteen months to leave. That was the eternal birth of the Province of Quebec. A small strip of land running from Montreal to the large opening of the St Lawrence to the Atlantic. That was the "sacred" territory. Whatever other territory that may have had a French presence in New France was given to Britain, by France, with the exception of St Pierre and Miquelon - which remains a French possession to this day. So that part of the Treaty of Paris has been respected.

The Quebec Act of 1774 further enlarged the territory. However, losses of territory during the War of Independance and the creation of an Upper and Lower Canada again split the new territory - esentially in half. Again, the sacred territory of Quebec was decided by Britain and reduced and enlarged at will.
The modern growth of the territory of Quebec really happened in 1898 with the creation of the Quebec Boundaries Act, passed into legislation by the Parliament of Canada. A second edition of this Act was passed by Parliament in 1912. Modern day Quebec's "sacred territory" was therefore permitted by an Act of the Parliament of Canada. Remembering Prime Minister Chretien's comment on Quebec's divisibility, it is easy to see that should the Parliament of Canada decide to rescind the Quebec Boundaries Act, the entire portion of territory granted in that Act would revert back to the Crown - Government of Canada. Many argue that it is completely illegal for Quebec to separate in any case, but there is no question that a national Parliament can rescind it's own legislation.

The problem with telling a lie is that bigger and bigger lies become necessary to explain the first. To give it legitimacy. To make it historical. That brings us to another more present myth. The Old Harry oil field. Located some 80 kilometers from Quebec's Iles-de-la-Madeleine this 29 kilometre long oil/gas field is becoming central to a dispute over provincial maritime borders. Only one problem. There are no provincial maritime borders. There are no provincial maritime economic zones or maritime territorial waters. None. Another bluff by the government of Quebec. Another lie told to the people of Quebec by their government, and it's separatist opposition. The government of Quebec refuses to sign an accord with the federal government, as every other province must do, should they wish to explore for offshore oil and gas. It insists the federal government must recognize Quebec's sole jurisdiction to it's territorial waters. Of all the guff!

Then there is Quebec's arrogant assertion that it does not recognize Labrador as a part of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Unfortunatley, for Quebec, that issue was legally settled. The dispute over Labrador was between the then countries of Canada and Newfoundland. Unable to reach a compromise they submitted the dispute to the Privy Council of Great Britain for arbitration, and in 1927 it was reaffirmed by that body that Labrador belonged to Newfoundland. When Newfoundland and Labrador entered Confederation in 1949 the Terms of Confederation recognized that territorial fact. Yet the government of Quebec continues to place Labrador as part of Quebec on it's website.

Here's were the poker comes in. The very nature of a bluff is that you have nothing in your hand, yet you want others to believe you do. Here's what happens with a bluff. Your opponent folds blindly, or he calls your bluff and you must eat humble pie and lay down your cards. Despite any purported agreement on maritime boundaries for the provinces between the Maritime provinces, Quebec, and the then Leader of the Official Opposion Mr. Stanfield (1964), no such agreement could exist without a constitutional amendment or an Act of Parliament at the least. Therefore, to say this group defined the boundaries, as Quebec argues, is akin to saying some folks got together at Tim Horton's and came up with the deal. It has no legal, or even logical basis in fact. The oceans belong to Ottawa from the low tide mark out. The Supreme Court decided it. Hey Quebec, wake up! Your bluff has been called. Newfoundland is exploring for natural gas and oil at Old Harry with the permission of the federal government. It is not sawing off it's nose to spite it's face. There are no sea borders for provinces. Deal with it or lose out altogether.

The same goes for Labrador. It was stripped from France before there was a "Quebec" by force of arms. It was granted to Newfoundland by Britain. It has been recognized by the British Privy Council, the Parliament of Canada, and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. There is no debate, and your recognition of the facts is not required. I suspect that should the time ever come that Quebec hopes to separate, and I hope it never does, that the Government of Canada will call your bluff too. Afterall, should they rescind the territorial expansion act, Newfoundland and Labrador might very well inherit all of current day northern Quebec, and all it's bounty therein. Did you hear that Mr. Ducceppe? Oh sorry I forgot you are in Europe promoting and getting the world ready for Quebec's separation.

In defence of our Premier, Danny Williams

This blog should not have to be written. The attacks against our Premier, and leader need to be answered. The big political question would be: "Why now?" Why are certain segments of our society picking now as the time to character assasinate Premier Williams? Perhaps the answer lies to the West.

Seems to me that recently our Premier made it official that Hydro Quebec (read: government of Quebec), was no longer a player in future hydro development in Newfoundland and Labrador. Coincidence? Perhaps. It does seem though that they have a lot of scores to settle with the Premier. First there is the oh so close loss in the gamble to take over New Brunswick's hydro utility, thereby permanently shutting Newfoundland and Labrador out of the hydro business. That failed. Thank God. Then there is the secret little letters going to Ottawa to try and prevent two maritime provinces from coming together and building a sub sea cable with federal help. That was exposed. Quebec's motives bare for all to see. Then there was the promise of a new and agressive approach toward Quebec on the renegotiation of the upper Churchill Contract. Finally, the declaration at the PC convention that Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia were going it alone in the Lower Churchill. Perhaps there is also the chance that France's hydro giant may lose it's bid to build a nuclear plant in New Brunswick now that a "friendly" government is in place there? That will not make them happy.

Sounds like a stretch, but is it? The remaining value on the Upper Churchill agreement for Quebec is about 73 billion dollars with zero inflation based on today's rates. The Lower Churchill will be less, but still significant. Then factor in Newfoundland and Labrador's early exploration and drilling on the disputed Old Harry site. Again billions at stake. The numbers start to get into the hundreds of billions. Is it a stretch to say that perhaps the government of Quebec, and their supporters, have launched a war of their own on Danny Williams? Do they see him as the only wall between them and Newfoundland and Labrador's resources. Is this a covert attempt to destroy the reputation of the Premier and cause some sort of "regime change?"

No? Well explain how it is that of all the politicians in Canada, our Premier is being singled out as a bully. Their is a certain premier who is refusing to respect the will of his people and is ramming an HST down their throat - despite a legal democratic challenge. Isn't he a bully? There is a certain Prime Minister that fires people out of caucus and party without legal cause. Is he a bully? There is another Premier to the west that tries to stop our province from recieving funds through a federal funding program to the detriment of our people. He must be a bully? The list goes on. So why target our Premier?

Danny Williams, a man of his own wealth, does not need politics. He did not need the publicity of politics to be known. He did not have to subject himself, and his family, to the rigour of public life. He did so soley out of his concern for the future of our Province and her people. Pure and simple. The rarest of politicians. The people love him for it, and, just as importantly, for what he and his government have achieved on their behalf. At 85% popularity Mr. Williams is in a stratosphere of his own. Perhaps he would not have such a high popularity in other provinces where personal sacrifice and monumentous achievement go unappreciated. This is Newfoundland and Labrador, and these qualities are seen and appreciated. At 85% Premier Williams has his place in history as the most popular politician in Canadian and probably North American history. That's history. Not just the last month, or the last year, that is as in history! An achievement that other politicians can only fantasize about. His place is assured not only in Newfoundland and Labrador's history, but also it's folklore. In other words, he is a folk hero to the people here.

Personally, I believe the people of Newfoundland and Labrador should hold a huge rally in St. John's to show support for our Premier. To send a message to those that are trying to undermine him, and what he stands for. We will not tolerate the personal attacks on our Premier. You won't influence us to turn against him. Our ties are stronger than your will to break them. Let's rally for the Premier not out of hero worship, but out of solidarity with him, and against those that are trying to divide and conquer Newfoundland and Labrador's people and their destiny.

Not So Swift Afghan Policy

This week Russian military forces conducted operations in Afghanistan...say what? The news of the joint American-Russian military operation against a drug target in Afghanistan was interesting to say the least. Only those in the corridors of power would know why this particular drug operation was targeted or why the Russians of all people were involved. There must be a very good reason. Question is: "Does the means help the ends?"

Think for a moment that it was only just over a two decades ago that the Russians left Afghanistan thus ending their nine year occupation of that country. It took the Russians only two days to capture Kabul, but nine years to realize they could not hold it. They suffered 25,000 dead and 37,000 wounded depending on which set of numbers you believe. Nothing compared to the massive attrocities inflicted upon the people of Afghanistan. Estimates of Afghan deaths are between 1-2 million people. 1.2 million people disabled. 3 million mamed or wounded. 5-10 million people fled to Pakistan or Iran - one third of Afghanistan's pre-war population. A further two million displaced internally within the country. As mind boggling as those numbers are, consider the destruction of the country itself. Irrigation systems, crucial to agriculture all but destroyed by Soviet aerial bombing. Water systems poisoned. Villages, towns, cities destroyed and depopulated. In other words, the Soviets/Russians layed Afghanistan to waste.

Consider then how the Afghan population must have felt when Russian troops entered their territory in force for an organized military operation - and as guests of the Americans. The Taliban must have been doing cart wheels at the sheer magnitude of the publicity this presented to them. A recruiting tool unmatched since the first Soviet invasion. Unbelievable. You have to think that at the highest levels these decisions must be well thought out, and sanctioned. The pros must out weigh the cons. Yet that is hard to see or believe in this case.

Certainly if you are the Russians, read: Putin, you are happy to be flexing muscle back in the old neighborhood. You can go in, get out, and suffer relatively little expense. It's a hint of "what we could do, should we choose to." A little macho strut - not unlike some of the other macho goings on in Russian politics prior to the next Presidential election. However, this time everyone has egg on their face.

Our alliance, NATO, has been battling for control of Afghanistan now for some nine years. The stated objective has been to win the hearts and minds battle with the Taliban for the proverbial soul of the Afghan people. The stated purpose of our occupation being to help rebuild Afghanistan and create a viable democracy for the benefit of its people. And then we invite the Russians in? The people that layed waste to the country and within living memory. The Afghan President was dumbfounded and embittered. Easy to understand why when you consider he is the one that must explain this to his people.

It is really a complete breakdown of intelligence to allow such a slap in the face to the Afghan people. It is the height of insensitivity to allow Russian soldiers across the border and into a country that they so recently committed such atrocities to. It almost begs the question: "Are they trying to win the war, or are they trying to amp it up?" Is such a small, and relatively insignificant raid worth undoing nine years of work, and legitimizing the Taliban in the eyes of those undecided or leaning Afghans? Don't the Afghan people deserve better, and more sensitive care at our hands than that? We believe in upholding to them a different standard than the cut throat, barbaric world that has been much of their lives. And then they bring in the Russians. You really have to feel for those people.

The Quebec route vs Under the Sea

This weekend, at the annual convention of the Progresive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams made it known - Newfoundland will proceed with a sub-sea cable to transmit power from Labrador to eastern markets. Thus, hopefully, ending the debate of selling further power to Quebec for it to retail to the rest of the east.

Of course much of the debate, if not all, was created by the duplicitous actions of Hydro Quebec and the Power Contract of 1969. While hopefully the debate ended this weekend, politically there was absolutely no other option open to the Newfoundland government. To be exact, the cost of the Upper Churchill Falls contract to date, and projected to 2041, at current rates will be aproximately 91.5 billion dollars. That is 91.5 billion dollars Canadian. That is Newfoundlands direct cost. It is necessary to view it in that light as these are revenues that the Newfoundland people did not get to realize. This is money that is floating the mammoth Hydro-Quebec and the neo-nationalist agenda it and the political elite of Quebec perpetuate. On the backs of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. They know it and we know it. The animosity this betrayal has created will last intergenerationally, and now has the potential to permanently imprint itself on Newfoundland's political culture.

In reality, therefore, there was never really any chance Quebec would get it's hands on even one more nano watt of Newfoundland's power. Ironically, there are still some in the form of the provincial Liberal Party that espouse a positive view of any business relationship with Hydro Quebec.  Whether it be on open air radio shows or in the provincial media, they push the view that our business relationship with Hydro Quebec was, and is, a good one. Hard to imagine. In a sadomasochistic way I suppose, if you're into that, which most of us are not. Perhaps that is one of the fundamental reasons the provincial Liberals in Newfoundland are not even on the radar politicially. Or in the hearts and minds of the people.

In any case, with the partial development of the Lower Churchill, and just as importantly the laying of the sub-sea cables to Nova Scotia, a new era is on the horizon for Canada's "newest and coolest" province. Whether the Upper Churchill Falls contract expires by natural death in 2041, or suffers a more immediate termination, the sub-sea cables will be ready to transmit that power to the eastern seaboard. Energy, and perhaps financial, independence will become a reality and those blessings will give a long overdue bounty to the great people of Newfoundland and Labrador. They overwelmingly deserve it.

A tempest in a ...

This week our Premier landed himself in some hot water - with some folks. During a press conference he assailed the Mayor of Marystown for assinine comments, and stated that he - the Mayor that is, didn't count. In fact, he essentially accused him of grandstanding over the federal naval ship building contracts. Perhaps the wording "doesn't count" was unfortunate. Perhaps it was said out of frustration.

The Mayor of Marystown is no innocent player afterall. To be specific - he's a bit of a political opportunist. At one point in his career he vied for the PC nomination in his riding and lost. He then ran for the liberal nomination and won. He then ran in the provincial election and lost. That about sums it up.

As a Mayor, and speaking as a former one myself, you don't attack the provincial government unless all avenues have been exhausted and you are certain the provincial side is not looking after your best interests. I for one, and probably atleast 85 percent of Newfoundlanders would have a hard time believing that Premier Danny Williams would do anything to harm the progress, financially or otherwise, of Newfoundland. The man has built himself the most envied political reputation, in recent political history atleast, as one who looks after the people of Newfoundland. Ask a Newfoundlander about Danny Williams and they will tell you: "the only Premier that's ever stood up for Newfoundland". Don't believe me? Try it.

He has taken on the major oil companies, the federal government, the Quebec government, and most recently it looks as though Vale may be next. The bottom line is he has the dollars to back up his talk, and he uses that for the benefit of the people of Newfoundland - to the best of his ability. He is only human, and makes mistakes from time to time, but not at the deliberate cost to his people - unlike so many politicians we have seen across this country. Given all his commitment toward the people and the province is it any wonder he would take great offence to the comments made by the Mayor?

Essentially, this liberal biased Mayor tried to embarrass the Premier for political gain. Pure and simple. It's no coincidence that the liberal party are all rushing to the Mayor's defence. It gives them a wedge issue to portray the Premier as arrogant and detached from the ordinary people. However, and under closer scrutiny, the questions should really be headed in the direction of the Mayor and not the Premier. Why would a Mayor on the short list for a life saving multi-billion dollar contract come out publicly, and the press is as public as you can get, and essentially question the Premier's integrity. Afterall, to say the provincial government needs to do something to help Marystown implies that it is doing nothing. In other words, the provincial government doesn't care enough to help create massive employment and substantial economic growth to the area. From my knowledge of Mr. William's, and for that matter his government, I would say that nothing could be further from the truth. Another question to the Mayor might be: "What do you expect the Premier to do when the military contract is a federal matter and soley under federal jurisdiction?" Clearly, this Mayor is not acting out of the best interests of his citizens, unless he sees publicly embarrassing the Premier as oil to grease the federal wheels.

Bottom line, as a Mayor you are supposed to act in a bipartisan fashion. Your focus is meant to build concensus, and not to be the agent of dissension. How does it serve the purpose of your citizenry to try and gain "sound bites" for your own apparent publicity? Sure the Premier could have chosen his words better, but very few people in Newfoundland question his loyalty to them. That is the highest compliment any politician can have. Perhaps the Mayor needs to learn that lesson. Perhaps the media should be asking the Mayor how his attacks on the provincial government, and it's leader, help the cause of Marystown?

His name was Igor - we have a different one for him...

As the outer rain bands of Hurricane Igor pounded Random Island, my family gathered to watch at the dining room window - 15 feet from the ocean. We new something was not quite right as the eye of the hurricane was still some 400 kms off Cape Race. We were to find out the brutal, ferocious power of Mother Nature at her finest. The power went out in the early afternoon, followed by the phone service some ten hours later. Life was about to become much like that experienced by our ancestors. Gone were the electrical powered luxuries and distractions of modern life. Gone was the freedom of unimpeded motor travel - except of course bikes (ATV's).

We, the whole community of Hickman's Harbour, were hunkered down in our homes, isolated and vulnerable, ernestly listening to our emergency radios for any news of the events unfolding around our little Harbour. For us it was VOCM. We listened to the morning show, we listened to the afternoon show, and we listened to the evening show. All the family huddled around the table under candlelight. Like a few generations before us, the radio waves kept us enthralled and connected.

Newfoundlanders are, for certain, the great communicators of Canada, and for four uncertain days they communicated on the phone-in shows from coast to coast. At first, when events seemed centered around St John's, the shows seemed almost to downplay the events unfolding. The best, or worst example I can recall was talk show hosts and callers decrying the apparent fact that "townies" don't know how to use a four way stop. I recall this because it seemed so absolutely foolish, trivial, and out of touch with the hell unfolding around us. Yet, as the roads in town turned to raging rivers, and the fields and lawns to ponds, the tone seemed to get more grave. It was as if an understanding of something far more ominous was beginning to sink in.

Finally the news started to circulate of the massive devastation around the Burin and Bonavista Peninsulas. The news broke of the first, and thank God the only, fatality of Igor - Mr Alan Duffett. Although I never met the gentleman from Britannia, friends told me he had successfully fought cancer twice and survived several heart attacks. A man of obvious strong determination. It seemed particularily tragic that Mr Duffett should have to die in such a violent and random way. Yet, true to the nature of this storm, nothing was to be untouched by it's fury. The mood seemed to darken over the province.

In our Harbour, like many around the province, people began to emerge from their homes and check on their neighbours and friends. They started to clean their yards and streets. However, their hands were tied when it came to the massive destruction of the roads and flooded areas. The power, phones, water, and fuel were all out of their hands - although some determined souls managed to take bikes to distant communities for jerry cans of gas.

What we learned was that this old land was created by sea, travelled by sea, and populated by sea. The Bights, Coves, Harbours are all used to describe the sea shore at their communities - unlike many places in the country. We were reminded that there is really only one road that runs through the province, and how the link can be shattered at whim. Yet our sea links can not. Even after ferocious Igor pounded the Island, the seas were back to their original, unaltered, state within days. No reconstruction is required there. No intervention by governments. It's as if nature is reminding us of the basic truth that Newfoundland is, and will always be, a land tied to the water.

As we move to reconstruct this land, let us move together, as we always have, and rebuild it stronger than before. In defiance of the odds, and in the knowledge that we are preserving this beautiful land for those that will follow.

In Politics there is a Right Way and a Wrong Way

Recently, actually for some time, I have often reflected on a story my father once told. A story he would have known, as he was there. It occured during the Italian campaign during World War II at a place called Monte Cassino. The German army had dug into positions on the slopes below the ancient abbey on top, recognizing and respecting it's historical and religious significance. The Germans even informed the Vatican of their positions so there would be no mistake. Unfortunately, the Americans deemed it to be a "possible" position for observation and or bunkering so they used their air force and leveled it. The Germans then occupied the position, using the ruins for maximum cover from air and land forces.

Getting back to my Father, he always maintained that the battle for Monte Cassino should have never happened. As a young Sargeant on the ground, and in regular contact with the Herman Georing Division, airborne, that was defending the area, I like to think he knew of what he was speaking. Interestly, my Dad believed that the allies could have simply driven right around Monte Cassino, without firing a shot, and the entire German contingent on the hill would have been cut off and forced into surrender. The lives that could have been saved on both sides, and the Abbey itself, would have been worth it.

Likely, somewhere up the command, a shiny four star felt that blowing it into oblivion was the right thing to do. Certainly it was one way. History, however, would suggest it was the wrong way. Just because the capability is there, we still have to consider how we use it. Clearly, the young Canadian Sargeant on the ground could see that. I like to think I got my sense of "the right way and the wrong way" from him. This picture of Monte Cassino after the bombing, illustrates the result of the wrong way...

Newfoundland 1 - Quebec 0

What can you say. There was a time when the province of Quebec produced some, if not most, of the great political people of our day. It looks like those days are behind us. In response to Premier Danny William's warnings to Quebec yesterday of a "new and aggressive" approach, in dealing with the Upper and Lower Churchill projects, the best the Quebec government can come up with is the PQ's Intergovernmental Affairs Critic - Bernard Drainville? Really. Drainville, apart from being a seperatist,  is not even a member of Mr. Charest's government. Perhaps a deliberate slight toward our Premier. Likely. A serious misjudgement though.

Mr. Drainville, try to ignore the last name, came back at Premier Williams today with the startling accusation that Newfoundland had a "special deal" for it's drilling on the offshore. His other charge: that Quebec has been "screwed" many times since Confederation. Let's deal with the last statement first. Everyone in Canada knows Quebec hasn't lost since it lost. Just some examples: keeping the language and culture; bilingualism; new anthem; new flag; draconian language laws; language police; preferential systemic hiring throughout the federal civil service; domination of federal politics and positions of power; undemocratic numbers of representatives in the House of Commons and Senate; apparently a hockey arena in Quebec City; Bombardier; the Canadian Space Agency; CSIS headquarters; the Museum of Humour; equalization payments; and so many others that they could not be fully listed here. It makes any thinking human being laugh out loud at such a statement.

Now for the "special deal" charge. Mr. Drainville states that Newfoundland enjoys a special deal to develop and drill off hore petroleum resources which Quebec does not. True, but only in the slightest sense. Newfoundland and Labrador negotiated an agreement with the federal government to drill on the offshore. Any province that wishes to do so can, and must negotiate an agreement with the Federal government first. That is the law. It lays out who gets what money, and the rules and responsibilities of those developing as well as the provincial and federal governments. Quebec has not negotiated an agreement with the feds for several reasons. Firstly, as Nathalie Normandean states, they want the agreement to " recognize Quebec's full jurisdiction in the Gulf of St Lawrence". As if any national government in the world is going to give a province jurisdiction over any water way, let alone a strategic one. Then again, the folks in Quebec City tend to see themselves, and want us to see them, as a nation.

Mrs. Normandean has found herself in a bad position as the Newfoundland government has issued drilling rights to Old Harry, the rich site at the centre of controversy between Quebec and Newfoundland. Corridor, the company awarded the rights is set to drill in 2012. Quebec wants this resource for itself, and is pressuring the federal government to grant it the offshore agreement needed to begin drilling - on their terms of course. According to Mrs. Normandean: "The federal government is telling us to go negotiate with Newfoundland and we'll see after that. We say no,no,no,no. Why would we negotiate with Newfoundland if we think there is no problem with the 1964 boundary?" One reason I can think of - if you don't, Newfoundland will empty Old Harry before you can reach a deal with the feds. Perhaps. The other interesting fact of note is that Quebec has a self-imposed drilling ban in place in it's "jurisdiction" until atleast 2012.

At the very least, Quebec has really shot itself in the foot on this one. So using this "special deal" as a comeback on the Churchill projects is really assinine. Throw in the hypothetical and say Newfoundland had a special deal. What possible relevance does that have to Quebec's plundering of the Upper Churchill, and blocking of the Lower? Is there an implication that Newfoundland should sit back and take it in the stomach, because it was forward looking enough to develop it's "own resource". It has not plundered or otherwise taken advantage of Quebec or it's resources. The Upper and Lower Churchill are, after all, Newfoundland's resources.

Premier William's should be sitting back and smiling after todays show. The weakness of Quebec's response correctly reflects the weakness in their position. The days of Quebec crying and the rest of the country running for paper towel are over. In all this, it is important to remember that the people of Quebec have no more say in the policy and actions of Hydro Quebec, or the Quebec government, than any other populace in the country. It's also important to remember that it is irrelevant how much money Quebec gets from the rest of the country - in so far as this battle goes. We can't be suckered into an anti-Quebec stance. We need to stay focused on the issues of the Lower and Upper Churchill falls. We need to use the tools availabe to us to achieve these ends, and we need not explain nor apologize to anyone for using them. All in all though, I would say one to nothing for us.

Way to go Premier Danny Williams!

In a speech Wednesday to the St John's Board of Trade our Premier came out and stated: "the dispute with Charest will take a new, aggressive approach". I guess, when you consider that most people might think Mr. William's has already been fairly aggressive in his approach with Quebec, that the new approach will be a doozy. Certainly, if he hopes to be successful, it will need to be. Quebec's territorial strategy is long and deep, and they won't easily bend. Think I'm over stating it? How about this quote from then Quebec Premier Jean Lesage, 1965:

" The primary and absolute condition is that all energy that will enter Quebec becomes property of Hydro Quebec. That condition...has always been the same, and we will never negotiate from another basis. We will never permit, under any condition, others to build a transmission line on Quebec territory, or let others transport the energy produced at Churchill Falls whatever the destinationof that energy, whether it be the United States or the other provinces." quoted from Le Devoir, 1965.

Clearly, Quebec has taken a monopolistic, some might say anti-competetive, approach from day one in the development of their, and our, hydro electric power. I would suggest that Mr Lesage's quote from 1965, four years prior to the Power Contract being signed, clearly illustrates a lack of good faith from the outset.

In any case, when fighting any entity that hides behind the Law to fufill it's own inhumane agenda, the words of the great american Abraham Lincoln should be heeded:

" I did understand however, that my oath to preserve the Constitution to the best of my ability, imposed upon me the duty of preserving, by every indispensable means, that government - that nation - of which that constitution was the organic law. Was it possible to lose the nation, and yet preserve the constitution? By general law life and limb must be protected; yet often a limb must be amputated to save a life, but a life is never wisely given to save a limb. I felt that measures, otherwise unconstitutional, might become lawful, by becoming indispensable to the preservation of the constitution, through the preservation of the nation right or wrong, I assumed this ground, and now avow it. I could not feel that, to the best of my ablility, I had even tried to preserve the constitution, if, to save slavery, or any minor matter, I should permit the wreck of government, country and Constitution all together." Miscellaneous writings of Abraham Lincoln.

In these old words of wisdom lies a real grain of truth for Newfoundland and Labrador. We must fight, utilizing all the tools we have, to undo the 1969 Power Contract. Yes it is a contract, as was the American constitution of Lincoln's time, but when necessary for the survival of the whole it can be abrogated. If Newfoundland chooses to allow the Upper Churchill agreement to continue the result will be catostrophic for the people. Economically, as layed out here in previous posts, Newfoundland's economic survival is at stake. It's way of life is threatened. It's people's pursuit of happiness is not only diminished, but likely permanently thwarted. In other words, to remain in this agreement is to sentence the people of Newfoundland to an ever diminishing way of life.

Thank-you Premier Williams for seeing the fight, and taking it to those who need it. As you can see by history, when approached with submission, a great people step forward together in a singular purpose. It is in the leader's hands to show them the way.

Debt, Hydro Power, and fighting for the Crumbs

The game of Hydro Power domination, currently unfolding in Maritime Canada, will be fueled by old faithful - debt. Or perhaps more accurately: debt capacity. Afterall, most businesses close their doors when their debts hopelessly outnumber their assets, and all the players involved in the Power War are in this diminshed position. Like the Emporer without clothes they strut, and yet their citizens dare say nothing, as to do so would force them to recognize their own naked place. And so we stumble on until the great international financiers force a mirror on us in the form of credit downgrades, credit freezes, devestating interest rates and terminal deflation.

When the government of Quebec proclaimed it's intention to buy New Brunswick Power, partner on the Lower Churchill, or any such project, it was really like the dog frantically chasing it's tail. Contemplate the following financial facts on the province: Quebec's gross debt today is 49.9% of it's GDP; it's gross debt is projected to be 53.4% of GDP by 2014; and it's current total debt is 94% of GDP. Those numbers place Quebec in the not so auspicious position of just behind Greece as one of the world's most indebted economies. Essentially bankrupt. If you combine that staggering debt with the lowest birthrate in North America Quebec's medium to long term prospects are dim - to say the least. It is estimated that should Quebec ever seperate it's debt would be aproximately 300 billion. To put that into context, Quebec would have to slash programs, and raise taxes 53% just to instantly become a member of the Third World.

It helps to put things into context. Here is another shocker. Hydro Quebec, the great propeller of  Quebec's Manifest Destiny, is in serious debt too. As of 2010, Hydro Quebec's debt is 36 billion dollars  with planned investments of 18 billion more by 2013. That's 54 billion. In that context it probably is not surprising that Quebec tries to thwart Newfoundland's entry into the market, or allow it to free the chains of the Power Contract, 1969. Essentially, through an extremely exagerated sense of self- importance, and a spending spree to match, Quebec has reached the limit. If it can not expand it's primary natural resource, hydro, then it will start to shrink and decline. In strictly financial terms it has already peaked and declined. Now they are trying to swim upstream just ahead of a massive water fall. The recent letter by Quebec's Premier to Mr. Harper, complaining that any funds given to Newfoundland and Nova Scotia would constitute an unfair subsidy to their hydro ambitions, rings hollow when you consider Quebec recieved at least 8.5 billion in equalization payments last year - including compansation for subsidized electrical rates for Quebec residents and business. Desperate people sometimes do desperate things.

The province of Newfoundland is not exactly in great financial shape either. Trapped in low wages, high taxes, shrinking revenues, massive debt, declining birth rates, net migration and surrendered resources Newfoundland is also on life support. Bravely, along the lines of the Emperor's new clothes, Newfoundland continuously fights to stay above water. However, without recapturing the Upper Churchill revenues, and developing the Lower Churchill potential, Newfoundland's future will echo that of Quebec's.

Both provinces have spent way past their means. Both have tried to build massives infrastructures in a relatively short period of time with declining birth rates. Bucking the wind as it were. Unlike say China, India, and Brazil where their population growth is positive and their development and spending is therefore sustainable, Newfoundland and Quebec have been living life on high. And for all, there comes a time to pay the piper. Now, rather than enjoying the benefits of our ancestors prudence and discipline, the things that differentiated the New World from the Old, we find ourselves like the world of Old - fighting for the crumbs.

So I say to the government of Newfoundland and Labrador: Fight. All you have to lose are your chains. But know you are in for the fight of your lives, and, therefore, fight accordingly. Please.

And so it starts...

An eventful, and somewhat predictable week begins the not-so-unofficial hydro war between Newfoundland and Quebec. You could say NALCOR and Hydro Quebec, but the reality is the massive dollars involved are targeted primarily for public coffers.

Things started with the disclosure that Newfoundland, in partnership with Nova Scotia, had officially requested P3 funding for an underwater electrical cable linking Labrador, Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia. While we in the general public have not heard the "deal" that obviously exists between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, you can bet there is one. The Quebec government, Premier no less, wrote an official request to the Prime Minister to disallow such funding based on the presumption that it was an unfair subsidy to Newfoundland's hydro ambitions. By doing so Quebec not only "outed" Newfoundland and Nova Scotia's appeal for public funds, but also, and likely more importantly, they set the stage for the ongoing saga lovingy known as "the betrayal of Quebec".

This theme Quebec brings to the fore every time they feel their interests are threatened. Essentially it is a warning to the federal government that if such and such were to go through, well, they couldn't be held responsible for the reaction amongst the people of Quebec. Read here: revival of the seperatist movement and Quebec's march to "rightful" independance. We have seen this movie so many times now that the Canadian people know it by heart. That does not mean however that Canadians are not concerned about Quebec actually attempting to seperate. They just are no longer prepared to sign over whatever Quebec wishes to keep it in place. Certainly attitudes in this regard changed with the defeat of the Meech Lake Accord and the subsequent Charlottown Accord, and likely peaked with Jean Chretien's bold statement to the Quebec government that if Canada is divisable then so is Quebec.

Apparently, despite this strengthening of the collective Canadian will, some Quebec politicians believe that setting the old background up prior to the main match is still a comfortable strategy. Well, they may as well save their breath. The rules of engagement have changed, and Newfoundland is not going to back down on the Upper or Lower Churchill Falls, and nor should they.

Premier Danny Williams must reconvene the Newfoundland House of Assembly and pass the necessary legislation to ban hydro sales to any entity that does not recognize and practise English as it's primary language. Insert the notwithstanding clause to avoid any court action by the Quebec or federal government. Nalcor will have no choice but to cease selling to Hydro Quebec as to do otherwise would then break the law. The Power Contract of 1969 would still be alive, but it would be against the law to fufill it in other words. Why would the Premier wait, and in some ways dance around with Quebec and others on this issue. It is too crucial to Newfoundland's survival. He certainly has the people on his side, and a vast ocean of political capital to draw on should he need it. Quebec, and to some degree Ottawa, need to understand that Newfoundland is not begging for pennies. It is asserting it's rights over it's own resources, and no soft pedalled deal can come in between the way of that right. We can talk, but only after we have regained control over our own vital natural resource.

If you want to fight the Quebec government, then you must out do them at their own game. Do not try and be gentalmanly as they will see that as weakness. Do not compromise until you have achieved the primary goal as they will see that weakness. Do not lose sight of your reasons for fighting this injustice, as they will see that as opportunity. There is no longer any need to try and partner with Quebec. If you question that, then you should have been watching the news this week. Make no mistake, Quebec's strategic plan is to keep the 1969 contract until it's expiry date. In the mean time they will construct their own facilities so they are prepared to lose that power at that time. They do not have a long term interest in Newfoundland, and they know their time in Labrador is limited. They obviously no not care one iota how their policies have affected the people of Newfoundland - not in the least. Literally could not care less. We must meet this with our own strength, and with this knowledge in mind. As the Premier of Nova Scotia stated today: "Quebec does not have a veto." Perhaps the bigger question should have been: "Whatever gave them the idea they did?" In any case, let the games begin!

Good Old Harry

When you here the name "Old Harry" you could be forgiven for thinking it might be some old clock in England, or a funny nickname for the old guy down the street. However, Old Harry really stands for big money, big oil and a seriously annoyed Quebec. You see old Harry is the name for a 29km long oil/gas deposit off the coasts of Nova Scotia, Quebec, and Newfoundland. Technically, atleast according to Quebec, the majority, if not the entirety, of Old Harry lies within Quebec's maritime jurisdiction. We can't really call them maritime boarders as the players are all in the same country - although sometimes you might wonder.

This time around, unlike 1969, Newfoundland has got a jump on Quebec in exploiting this massive resource. You see, any province wanting to explore/drill on the offshore must have a revenue sharing agreement in place with the federal government. It must also agree on being compliant to federal legislation and establish regulatory oversight. Newfoundland has already gone through that entire process, and has had many years of experience in the field. Quebec - has not. The Quebec government has been pushing Ottawa to finalize a deal so they can begin hauling in the catch, so to speak, at Old Harry. Ottawa on the other hand has told them to negotiate with Newfoundland first to straighten out the border differences between the two.

Where does that leave Quebec? Deep in it I would say. For starters, Newfoundland has begun work on it's side of the line with an eye on beating Quebec to the field. Afterall, just because they drill on the Newfoundland side of the line doesn't mean they can't empty the Quebec side of the resource. Question that? Go back to the Saddam Hussein days and the slant drilling Kuwait and Iraq were doing to each others fields - depending on who you spoke to. Newfoundland is definately in a position to hand Quebec its first massive financial lose since it lost on the Plains of Abraham. No doubt the separatists in Quebec will say this is yet another humiliation inflicted on Quebec by the rest of Canada.

However, before they speak, they should remember the Upper Churchill. In the resource war that now consumes Atlantic Canada and Quebec, this is just another salvo - albeit painful. There will be no peace, no good will, no sharing amongst the family until the blight that the Power Contract of 1969, and the Upper Churchill enslavement, are set aside for a new agreement. This isn't just a one off. This is going to become the norm - and it is dangerous.

Those of us that love this country are very concerned that pettulant provincial battles constantly rip at her fabric, and the greatness we have as one is threatened by the greed of some. Never has any province in the history of this land been subjected to an economic enslavement such as the Upper Churchill contract by another province. Her own fellow Canadians. It has cost Newfoundland entire lost generations and monumental wealth - replaced of course with massive debt and horrific demographics. The Upper Churchill contract must be set aside voluntarily, or otherwise. If not, the eastern half of this country will come to resemble an internal economic civil war. Quebec needs to understand that greed can only take it so far, and it's dream of dominating the hydro electric market is not going to happen. There is no great separate manifest destiny for the province of Quebec, and she must immediately halt her ridiculous "nationalistic" energy practices.

Upper/Lower Churchill

Almost everyone in this province knows the beating we took at the hands of Hydro Quebec in 1969. The infamous Power Contract that has seen Quebec reap 22 billion so far and Newfoundland a mere billion. The agreement that sealed our fate as a have not province - unless oil is high. Whatever news story we hear regarding out migration, lack of health care, social services, roads, etc can be directly traced back to the massive loss of money Newfoundland has suffered since 1969. Don't believe that? Consider that even a mere 50-50 split of that 22 billion Quebec has received so far, 11 billion, would be enough to pay Newfoundland's complete debt of today. Yes, like Alberta - debt free.


Now consider that Newfoundland has the largest per capita debt in Canada. A massive 11 billion for a population of less than 500,000 souls. We aren't getting any younger either. That means less people to pay the debt we already have - which is increasing by at least 200 million a year. That is where the hydro projects come in. Not one single shovel has been turned at the Lower Churchill. The reason - we can't raise the money locally or internationally. At an estimated cost of 6-7 billion for the Lower Churchill and another 3 billion for the under sea cable to transmit the power, well, let's just say we don't have the credit limit to cover that. Hence our Premier trying to twist arms in Ottawa to get it's Hibernia share, and other such revenue generating adventures. The only problem with that strategy is Ottawa's got it's own bills to worry about, and they need the cash.

Some here have said that Ottawa will intervene on Newfoundland's behalf, and help us finance the Lower Churchill development. That seems very unlikely. It would require the federal government side with Newfoundland in an energy war with Quebec. The political calculation is 9 million votes or 500,000 votes. Some say that we should be partners with Quebec in the Lower Churchill, but the reality is we are shaping up to be competitors in the continental energy market. Partnerships with Quebec in hydro tend to be one sided in any case. Think that is too strongly worded? Consider that when Quebec automatically renews the agreement for another 25 years in 2014 they will be paying us less than they do today. That's right - less.

There is one chance to undo all this history, recover our finances, end our financial decline, and even reverse our population lose. We must cancel the Upper Churchill agreement and recoup as much of those funds as possible moving forward. With that revenue coming in financial backers could realistically invest in our long term future. To change the deal has proven fruitless over the years, but only because the strategies have been flawed. Hydro Quebec's lawyers ensured their contact with us was air tight according to the laws of the land in 1969, and likely could not foresee any change in contract law. However, in the 1980's, we repatriated the Constitution - and the Notwithstanding Clause. Essentially, the Clause allows the federal or provincial governments to pass laws, within their jurisdiction, that would otherwise contradict the Constitution. One such area of provincial jurisdiction we can use, as others have, is language.

Our provincial government must pass legislation banning the export of hydro power to any jurisdiction that does not recognize English as it's primary language. This ties a provincial jurisdiction, which the law can be used on, to the Power Contract. I other words it would be illegal for Nalcor to sell power to Quebec. We could not be sued or even challenged in court as the Clause exempts the government that uses it from any legal challenge. It should have an inclusion that the law takes effect in 60 days, and the government may amend the law to allow sales to whomever it wishes on a case by case basis. It could also be cancelled at any time the government chooses. Suddenly, Quebec is in the same position that they put Newfoundland in back in 1969. With their American customers telling them to get their house in order, and their supply secured, Hydro Quebec will have no choice but to renegotiate. They should hurry with their offer as nobody likes a middleman.
   

Upper Churchill Falls End Game

In 1969, when the Power Contract was finalized between Brinco and Hydro Quebec, Newfoundland's fate was sealed. "Have Not" status was to be a permanent state of affairs with Quebec gaining wealth and independance. Quebec saw this as an opportunity to massively expand Hydro Quebec, as the foundation of it's nationalistic drive towards being " masters in their own house". Newfoundland has suffered ever since, and continues to do so to this day.

Many Premiers have since tried to right the wrong done by this deal, but with no success. Legal avenues have been tried. Minor, or ill advised, political pressure has been tried. Most recently the Newfoundland government's attempt to have the Quebec utilities regulator rule against Hydro Quebec in favour of Newfoundland - like that would ever happen! It has to be considered an absolute act of futility, and honestly not well thought out. The lawyers for Hydro Quebec in 1969 made sure they had Newfoundland painted into a corner with no way out - that is, according to the law at that time. They did not forsee any change in civil law that could in any way alter the Power Contract, and in this sense they were right.

However, with the repatriation of the Constitution in the 80's an answer to Newfoundland's prayers actually emerged. As a compromise with the provinces Mr Trudeau allowed the creation and insertion into the Constitution of the "notwithstanding clause". A clause that would allow the federal government or a provincial government to override certain rights within the Constitution that fell under their respective jurisdictions. Therein lies the key for Newfoundland.

In order to make this work we must first tie one of these rights to the hydro electric business. The one obvious area would be language. Quebec has made French it's primary language, including in the business sector, and utilized the notwithstanding clause to do so. It could do that, because language, business, education, etc are provincial jurisdictions. It is in effect a game that Quebec has perfected. The game has never been used against Quebec. Now it must be.

Newfoundland's House of Assembly must pass legislation forbidding the sale of hydro electric power to any jurisdiction that does not have English as it's primary language. The legislation must have the notwithstanding clause inserted in it to shield Newfoundland from any legal action from either the Quebec or Federal governments. It is within our rights to do so as language and natural resources are both within provincial jurisdiction. The language of the legislation should include a provisio that the Newfoundland government retains the right to allow exceptions to this law should it be in the interest of the Newfoundland people to do so. A 60-day implementation period should be included. This would give Quebec and likely the Federal government 60 days to renegotiate the 1969 contract with Newfoundland.

The repurcussions for Hydro Quebec would be serious. Should it fail to renegotiate the contract, power would be cut from the Upper Churchill. The United States and other customers that Hydro Quebec services would be facing immediate power losses. Hydro Quebec as a corporate entity, and certainly as a supplier of power, would be crippled. The Americans would demand that Hydro Quebec immediately negotiate with Newfoundland. Suddenly, history will be reversing itself as Hydro Quebec will now be the one that is in the poor bargaining position and the province of Newfoundland will hold all the chips and be dictating terms. One would seriously expect those terms to include compensation for revenues lost from 1969 to present and atleast a 50% share in ongoing profits. Likely, the Americans would then look to Newfoundland as future suppliers of hydro power as we own the resources. In other words, cut out the middle man.

Newfoundland does not have the funds to proceed with the Lower Churchill, let alone the underwater sea lines to the maritimes, without the revenues from the Upper Churchill. Newfoundland is already paralyzed, in reality, with an 11 billion dollar debt. For a province with less than 500,000 people that is crippling. No lender, nationally or internationally, is going to invest with that kind of debt load, and few revenues. For those that expect the Federal government to help out, well, that is being naive. Quebec and Newfoundland will be competing power giants, and the federal government is not likely to side with the province of 500,000 vs the province of 9,000,000. Politically, the cost would be suicidal.

No folks, this one we have to do on our own. This one we have to use the tools this Country has given us, and make them work for us. It is the only option now left for us. Don't be fooled by pie in the sky promises. Especially in these days after the massive debt collapse around the world. Newfoundland won't be taken seriously when looking for investment. I can hear some say: "but we've got the oil". Oil is not exactly a reliable source of income, as we have seen in the last 15 months, and it does run out. Hydro is forever. All that is required is the courage of conviction to do the right thing for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Upper Churchill Newfoundland - what needs to be undone

It is estimated that the Upper Churchill Hydro project has created roughly 22 billion dollars for Hydro Quebec to date. Newfoundland's share is about 1 billion. Not exactly a balanced deal. Let's face it, not even close. What is the real cost of this deal?

If you consider that Newfoundland is 11 billion dollars in debt, and a mere 50% share of the Upper Churchill would have Newfoundland without any debt, then you start to get the idea. The biggest problem with the Upper Churchill is not the damage that it has done so far, which is huge to Newfoundland's development, but where it leaves us for the future. Consider that the Lower Churchill development  is estimated to cost 7 billion - without the underwater cable transmission system. Then consider that the province is already 11 billion in debt. Then consider that there are only 500,000 souls in Newfoundland. Then consider that the population is aging faster than almost anywhere else in Canada. Then try not to consider the number of people that are leaving for the rest of Canada. Makes you wonder how Danny Williams copes!

The deal with Quebec has left Newfoundland starved of the revenue it needed to build the province up, and retain, if not grow, it's population. Yes oil has been developed, which has added to the provincial coffers, but likely won't undue by itself the damage of the last 40 years. Hard to get those years back.

Here's the kicker. Frankly, we aren't hearing the truth and the whole truth regarding the Lower Churchill development. The province of Newfoundland will likely not be able to do this project on it's own. Approaching financiers at this time, and in the state of our books, well let's just say we would not be the most attractive investment out there. The international bankers would view Newfoundland much the same as an extremely in debted family seeking a million dollar loan to start a business. Our largest resource is in the clutches of our biggest competitor for the foreseeable future. Oil is a good, but highly volatile resource given its cyclical nature and environmental concerns (the least of not being off shore drilling right now). They would likely say "we see where your going with this ...but, you have too high a debt to income...sorry". We need to prepare ourselves for this reality should we choose to let Hydro Quebec continue with its shabby deal.

Things are starting to look like they did in 1969 when Brinco, out of desperation, signed the deal with Hydro Quebec that sunk the province financially. We now have a Premier who is desperate to industrialize the province, but is stuck without a major backer/customer. The thought actually scares me, but recent media reports seem to imply a flirtateous eye is winking at Hydro Quebec. Surely, and I haven't heard the ice forming below, it would be a cold day in hell before we would do that to the province again.

If we hope to get financing from the international community, or at home in Canada for that matter, the financial fundamentals of the province must be sound. Sound means reducing debt, rationalizing spending, a Newfoundland-first procurement policy, but just as importantly increasing revenues. Not by way of taxing whats left of the economy to death, but recapturing what is otherwise bleeding away to push up Quebec's economy. This isn't being anti-Canadian. This is becoming masters in our own house. Not as separatists or radicals, but in self-defence of the Newfoundland way of life.

Simply put, we need to take back the Upper Churchill - period. Without it we won't get a cent. If we are to be a Hydro Power in the international sense, then we need to utilize what we have. Hydro Quebec, by whatever means, must be convinced to rip up the Power Contract and renegotiate the power of the Upper Churchill. No other province, and I've lived in alot of them, would tolerate the raping that Newfoundland is recieving at the hands of Hydro Quebec. Nor should they. Even Alberta unilaterally changed its oil royalty program with the big boys, although I believe they have been convinced to change that policy. There is, however, a big difference between Hydro Quebec and say Esso. The bottom line is that if Newfoundland must throw the switch on the Upper Churchill, and deny Hydro Quebec any power from that point, then so be it. To carry on with the Power Contract of 1969 is economic suicide for Newfoundland, without question, the results of which will be seen when Newfoundland tries to raise the money to develop the Lower Churchill. All that evil needs to grow is for good men/women to turn a blind eye.

Chateau Lake Louise gets 6 months to prove it’s not wasting water

Dawn Walton
Calgary — From Monday's Globe and Mail Published on Sunday, May. 23, 2010 7:51PM EDT Last updated on Monday, May. 24, 2010 1:08PM EDT

The Fairmont Chateau Lake Louise now has until the end of the year to show Parks Canada that it is not wasting water from the emerald-blue lake in Banff National Park from which it takes its name.

But based on preliminary water use data, Ottawa says it is “definitely encouraged” that the posh Alberta hotel may be on its way to having its water woes under control.

The Globe and Mail outlined how the hotel’s water distribution system had lost nearly 510,000 cubic metres of water taken from Lake Louise between 2003 and 2009, prompting a probe by Parks Canada.

According to records submitted to Ottawa, 21 per cent of the lake water drawn by the hotel’s aging treatment plant had vanished from the metered distribution system on average each year between 2003 and the fall of 2009.

In 2008, a member of Parks Canada’s Advisory Development Board raised a red flag about a $7-million plan to upgrade the hotel’s water-treatment plant and reservoir. Brad Cabana noticed what he viewed as a large gap between the amount of water drawn from the glacier-fed lake and the amount of water used by the hotel. He subsequently resigned, citing “environmental negligence.”

Despite expectations that the new water system, which is supposed to be more efficient and measure every drop of water used by the hotel, would be operational by last fall, Parks Canada revised its expectation to the end of February, 2010. Now hotel officials said the plant, which treats water for use by hotel guests and sends waste water for treatment, won’t be fully online until June 1.

Parks Canada and its Advisory Development Board, which is supposed to involve Canadians in what projects go ahead in the Rocky Mountain parks, has given the hotel six months to show that the water use situation in the UNESCO World Heritage Site has improved.

“This is now really a state-of-the-art facility as it relates to the water treatment system and the distribution system,” said Gregor Resch, general manager of the Fairmont Chateau Lake Louise.

Although the hotel says water production numbers for September, 2009, through February, 2010, were not collected as the old plant was taken out of service, Mr. Resch is confident progress has been made based on data available so far.

In March, there was a 26.5-per-cent water loss rate, which the hotel blamed on burst hydrants and metering problems at the beginning of the month, and in April the discrepancy was 12.7 per cent.

Experts say well-run water systems have loss rates of 8 to 12 per cent. The hotel says it has been told 10 to 20 per cent is acceptable.

“Parks Canada is definitely encouraged by these early results,” said Pam Veinotte, superintendent of the Lake Louise, Yoho and Kootenay field unit. “However, we must see a sustained trend based on accurate data in order to determine that the discrepancy has been reduced to an acceptable level and that this issue has been completely resolved.”

Mr. Cabana said the early results show promise.

“[My] goal was in the beginning to protect Lake Louise as it could not protect itself,” he said. “I think that we have succeeded.”