Veterans Liberally Betrayed

                                               Kent Hehr, Liberal Minister of Veterans Affairs
                                                                          Canada


As an injured vet I was really hoping against hope that the Liberals would live up to their promises made toward injured veterans during the election. Hope against hope. Fighting that inner voice that warned of disappointment after disappointment with politicians associated with Veterans Affairs - and in many cases the department itself. A vast bureaucracy that eats so much money that it would probably be cheaper to give every seriously injured vet a million dollars - it would cost far less and be far quicker - and just get rid of the department. Wishful thinking I know, but you have to go through the process of trying to deal with Veterans Affairs to understand the hell it is to deal with. It is not uncommon, according to studies, that some vets actually get PTSD, or severely acerbated cases of it, by simply dealing with Veterans Affairs for periods of 5-9 years simply to be looked after from their injuries.

So, the Liberals got in and made a big splash in their first budget about everything they would do for vets. They increased the Income Loss Replacement program from 75% to 90%. That's a monthly payment program to fund injured vets who can't work due to their injuries. Up until now the monthly payment has been based on a basic Corporal's pay. When they increased from 75-90% they reduced the basic payment to that of a senior Private. That's pretty hard for a guy like me to wrap my mind around considering I was a Captain - Major qualified - when I left. Getting paid as a Private is a wee bit of a demotion. Beyond the personal though, the Income Loss Replacement program is essentially all that is left of a "disability-like pension" that's there for vets anymore. It's only like a disability pension in that it is all you can receive as a monthly benefit anymore - there is no disability pension for us. A major difference: disability pensions are tax free, as are workers compensation programs. Not so for us broken soldiers. We pay tax on that monthly payment - a lot of tax. That was one of the issues that the lawyer for the six Afghan veterans suing Veterans Affairs was fighting for. That leads us to the latest betrayal of vets by this rather new Liberal government.

The Liberals promised to recognize the social contract the country had with those of us injured by our service. They were outraged and indignant that the Conservatives were denying a social contract existed with the veterans and their country during that lawsuit. Former Minister Erin O'Toole, Tory, a veteran himself, managed to have the lawsuit put on ice for a year to negotiate a settlement that would see these serious veterans issues addressed with honour. There was some optimism. However, for what ever reason, O'Toole did not reach an agreement with the vets and their lawyer before the election. The Tories lost, and the Liberals promised to fix it. They even passed an all party resolution in the House of Commons that recognized the social contract between the country and their injured soldiers. Things appeared to be going as they should be. There was calm in veteran land - so to speak. Then came this week.

There is no greater betrayal than the betrayal of hope. Veterans watched in horror and dismay as the new veterans minister threw us to the wolves by resuming the lawsuit in the BC Court. Now, as if a bad nightmare has been revisited, Hehr is using the very same argument in court - that there is no social contract between Canada and it's fallen and injured troops. It is a cut so deep for an injured veteran that it's hard to describe. It strips us of the dignity and honour of our service. It says we owe you nothing. You will get the crumbs we feel you deserve, when we deem it, and as much as we deem. You will be greatful. A soldier by definition has to be a proud person. Pride is drilled into you, and so is honour. You associate that with your comrades, your unit, your country and even yourself. Hehr, and his boss Trudeau, have just ripped that from us yet again. It hurts deeply and it is unforgiveable. To know betrayal you must have your Prime Minister and your national government stick the cold steel blade of political betrayal into your heart. That is what Hehr and Trudeau have done. They have Liberally betrayed us.

Jerry Dean and Accountability

I'm sure Jerry Dean is a fine fellow and all that. You don't get to be elected as a Mayor of your community without the respect and support of that community, so it goes without saying the man has, or had, that. However, Dean's comments in the House of Assembly this week likely did a lot to damage that reputation.

In the wee, dying hours of the House of Assembly this week Dean stood up and began speaking off a prepared script. Yes, a prepared, written script. He made constant reference to it as he spoke. What does that have to do with anything? Well, a prepared script from a back bencher in our politics means the party in charge of the government crafted it for him to say. That's normally for several reasons: to fly a trial balloon by someone who is expendable (ie: don't use a Minister to do it); to start the spread of a message the government wants out there; and to change the channel and focus of discussion. Likely, in this case, all three were at play.

Here is exactly what Dean said in the House in the late hours of May 11, 2016:

"Despite the squandering revenue and resources by the PC administration, they don't, you people don't (points to the PCs across the House) deserve shouldering all the blame either. So, now who can we blame? ... (suggests Clyde Wells, Brian Peckford, or Joey Smallwood could be too blame then says) No, they don't deserve the BULK OF THE BLAME either. Everybody here tonight, and everybody at home throughout the province, it's time for all of us to take, take the blame. The unfortunate truth is that WE COLLECTIVELY, the CURRENT POPULATION and the PREVIOUS POPULATIONS, ARE TO BLAME. Nobody likes to say it, but there persists a culture of ENTITLEMENT in this province in which we demand jobs, benefits and services from government that our province simply cannot afford to continue enduring. At the rate. Decades of borrowing and spending by our governments, to pay for our CULTURE OF ENTITLEMENT, because we demand it."

( link is here for the speech - around the 2:40 mark - differs on different systems)

If you watch you will notice that Dean reads that little diatribe word for word off the prepared speech he was given to say. So, it wasn't just his position, but in fact a Liberal government message he was putting across. Now he clearly states: the people "collectively are to blame"; the people past and present deserve the "bulk of the blame"; the people have a "culture of entitlement"; and absolves the political parties of the "bulk" of the blame as entities. That's a fact of the record.

Now go to Dean's recorded interview with the CBC (the audio of the interview located in the story is what you need to listen to here . Here is what Dean said 3 days later to the CBC:

The CBC reporter asks: "So Mr. Dean, why do you think the population is to blame for the deficit?"

Dean answers: " Well, uh, I don't think that's exactly what I said."

Yet that is exactly what he said.

Then he said: "If some people want to take that, and misconstrue it, that I was laying the entirety of the blame at the people, at the general population, both current and previous, excluding Jerry Dean, and Dwight Ball, and Cathy Bennett and previous finance ministers and previous premiers and cabinet ministers and the list goes on then that's not what I said and it's there on the record... and if one were to take the time to take it, not from second hand news from someone else out.. you know I believe... there was quite a bit of cherry picking going on there, but I'm where I'm to on my reputation of being open and honest...."

So, when Dean refers to "someone out there" he is referring to me, because I watched as he said it, and put the info out immediately on social media - which caused a fire storm of indignation amongst the people - as it should. Then, Dean accuses people of "misconstruing" what he said. But, as you can see above, it is exactly what he said. He then relies on his reputation of being open and honest, yet it is quite clear he is not being honest at all.

The CBC reporter goes on and asks him:

"It's not second hand news. We heard your voice there in the House of Assembly and you did say the general population and people listening to that would say how is the general population to blame when they don't get to make the decisions?"

Dean answers:

"Ya, well... but ... I'm looking at what I said here now... that collectively the current and previous populations ... now, you know ... what ... what that encompasses is everybody... so ... if ... again somebody wants to take something out of context that... that I can't control that.."

Dean stumbles so badly he has to read the same prepared statement he read in the House to buy himself some time to answer the question. He then stammers to make his answer sound palatable, and ends with people twisting his words. Yet, he admits in the same breath he was referring to everybody - ie: the people of the province.

The CBC reporter isn't buying that and follows up with this:
"If you're including everybody, how are those of us not elected responsible?"

"Why... this is ... unfortunately... like I say this is something that inadvertently... I guess has been brought upon inadvertently, uh, not in a mean spirited way... uh just be the harsh reality of the ...that the populations of the day uh... have...I guess...you know...like listen and follow the lead of ... of a consecutive government, whether they be Liberal or PC,  and we've all had a ... probably ... a ... oh um...how can I put this ...we're all guilty as politicians and sitting governments... so um ... unfortunately... uh...ah of promising things to people... and in a lot of case delivering to the people...the people themselves...everyone of us collectively, couldn't afford to begin with... and ...so inadvertently and stuff...like we've ...like we've a ... unfortunately just found ourselves in this mindset."

If you think that answer was a complete run around by a scared politician, trapped by his own words in a corner, you aren't alone. The CBC reporter comes right back at him:

"So...I'm trying to understand this in a clear way, does that mean those of us that are the electors, or the voters or the citizens are responsible for where we sit right now, because we expected things from the government or that we accepted what the government was promising?"

Dean: "Well.. I'm saying collectively in part...." and the dribble just goes on from there. I really encourage you to listen to the taped interview at the link for the CBC story. The reporter did an excellent job of holding him to account. And therein lies the purpose of this post - accountability. That one word every politician in Newfoundland and Labrador is scared to death to hear. Anything but that! The truth is the people don't suffer from a sense of entitlement - not at all. The simple truth is they want roads and services that are accepted as routine in the rest of the country, but for some reason here they depend on how you vote as to what level of service you'll get - if any. Successive generations of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians haven't suffered from a sense of "entitlement". Quite the opposite is true. Successive generations have been brainwashed to believe they aren't entitled to the basics of all modern societies of the world, and to complain about that is to be a "whiner". To demand services before spending on mega projects is to be a "naysayer". To demand basic services is to have a sense of "entitlement".

It goes back a long way here. The Merchants. The small number of business families in the province that were the Merchants and are now the Corporations have a long history of keeping people "in their place". Keep them hungry so they'll work. Keep them uneducated so they won't question. Keep them poor so they'll be grateful for the crumbs of the natural wealth they rightly own. The key to all these things for them is not to be held accountable for it. That's why they have ingrained into the people the principle "don't trust outsiders" and "don't have outsiders coming in and telling us", because "outsiders already know what is basic human expectations in the modern world. That the interests of people take priority over the wealth of a few families. That holding people down isn't acceptable. All dangerous philosophies here to the ruling elite, but the standard everywhere else in the country. Like my neighbor who moved away 20 years ago, came back, and after one year is selling to move out, Newfoundlanders that have gone afar know now what should be expected of our government and are incensed at the mentality of "keeping people down". They won't accept it, and they leave.

We don't live in a culture of fat cat citizens with a "sense of entitlement". We live in a province of hard working people, fighting just to get by, with low expectations and strong family values who have been conditioned to believe that demanding what is normal elsewhere is somehow being greedy here. That's why Jerry Dean's statements are so offensive. Make no mistake, this was a prepared statement written for him to read word for word by the Premier's office - as is the case everywhere else for backbenchers. this is the position of the government. Like all the governments before it. It's aim is to invoke that item from your memory. Your conditioning. Don't ask for anything. Sacrifice for us. It is how you've been and how you must remain. Don't hold us to account. Yes, in this province there is definitely not a culture of "entitlement". Instead, we have a "culture of excuses". The culture of "it wasn't me" to quote the Caribbean singing star Shaggy. But, it doesn't apply to current and past generations of the population. No, it applies to current and past political elites as they spend  the fruit of the land and sea on themselves, and toss the crumbs to the population as if they should be grateful they got that. The "culture of the Merchants".

The Big Muskrat Falls Lie

Here's a trivia question for you: Who said "If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed." Answer: Adolph Hitler. I get it. The first one to invoke Hitler's name loses the argument. It's just that a better quote can't be found for the die hard proponents of Muskrat Falls dam.

The most recent Muskrat Falls "story" was published today by CBC Newfoundland and Labrador. The CBC here has been as big a proponent of Muskrat Falls as anyone since 2010. It's almost as if there is some official policy to support the project over there. The story here is from an access to information request, but almost sounds as if it's a leak - which the reporter involved quickly pointed out it was not. Nevertheless, the story gives six reasons why Muskrat Falls cannot be stopped or postponed: the province needs power; a lot of money has been spent; the feds could take the project over if we stopped it under the terms of the loan guarantee; we'd still owe Nova Scotia power; it would put a lot of people out of work; and the province wouldn't be weaned off fossil fuels. No advantages were identified in the heavily redacted briefing paper. There you go. Can't be stopped. Oh well. The big lie get's repeated yet again to the public.

Here is the truth:

1. All contracts signed to build Muskrat Falls were signed by Nalcor, not the provincial government. That is significant because the province passed legislation in 2012 that designated Nalcor as essentially a private corporation for the purposes of contracts to build the project. It pulled their "Crown Agent" status. That means only Nalcor can be sued for breaking the contracts. Critically, that also means that the government can halt Muskrat Falls and Nalcor can claim a Force Majeure event. A Force Majeure event in contract terms means an event outside the control of the parties to the contract that puts the terms of the contract on ice until the event is resolved. Nobody can be sued, and no monies or penalties can be levied. So, the government could stop the project without getting sued by the contractors building and supplying Muskrat Falls.

2. The federal government does have the right to invoke the default clause in the federal loan guarantee if the province halts construction. It also has the right to do that if the project becomes over indebted as well. So the federal government takes over the project? The permit to construct the dam itself is a provincial permit authorized by the provincial government. Our provincial government can simply revoke the permit which means the river can't be dammed. So the federal government is left with a huge pile of concrete that can't produce a single watt of electricity. That is really no threat. There is no real threat to us until the dam across the river itself is built. Then we couldn't cancel the permit to alter a waterway, and that would be more troubling. Bottom line is though we are no where near that now.

3. Yes there would be jobs lost if the project were cancelled, but look at the jobs- permanent jobs, being lost now due to budget cut backs as a result of spending on Muskrat Falls. In addition, many of the jobs at Muskrat Falls are employing people who aren't from the province in any case. And, all those jobs they keep talking about are over when the project is over in any case. Short term gain for long term extreme pain.

4. Yes Nova Scotia is entitled to power from Muskrat Falls - 20%. When I say Nova Scotia I really mean Emera - a publicly traded corporation. Emera's contract for the supply of power is not with the government here - it's with Nalcor. Again, Nalcor can exercise the Force Majeure clause and Emera is out of luck, that's why the Nova Scotia Premier has been frantically calling our Premier to make sure Muskrat Falls is still a go.

5. The argument about the need for power is just a three way circus. For starters, the new Maritime link could import power into the province if we needed it. There are also many wind options that could cover many anticipated shortages. There are policy changes that could be made to preserve the power here - too many to mention. The argument that a dam in Labrador is needed to do this is frankly intellectually lazy at best. On top of all that, consider that the province has the quickest aging population in all of North America. There aren't going to be as many around in the near future. Our population will be shrinking. So what kind of power consumption will we really need in 10-20 or more years down the road?

6. The argument we aren't weaning ourselves off fossil fuel for power is almost laughable. Ok, it is laughable. The amount of oil used to power Holyrood in a year amounts to four days of production from the oil platforms off our coast. In other words, you foolish hypocrites, you can't beat your chest for becoming 98% green when you're harvesting every bit of black grease you can get off the ocean floor, and will until there isn't one drop left. In any case, wind, solar and tidal are options that would ease our conscience about exporting oil everywhere else in the world.

Be aware of the big lies that the government and Nalcor have been putting out there, and which are essentially being repeated in the media without question. Beware of the big lie.

Newfoundland and Labrador's Class Revolution

It's been weeks now since the provincial government here laid down its budget. A budget designed to touch the lives of every man, woman and child in the province. A budget that severely hurts the poor and working class, but spares the middle class, and up from equal severity. Whether it be the taxes on insurance, or the hated levy, the less fortunate and working class are being nailed to the cross in a way they can't compensate for. Their way of life is at stake. Not so much for the middle and upper classes here. It's a hit for them as well, but ever so slight in comparison.

The targeting of the civil service here, which makes up about 25% of the working people in the province, has also cast a distinct class flavour to the mix. Closure of 60% of the province's libraries - all in rural Newfoundland and Labrador. Closure of Courts - also in the rural. The message is clear: if you are an upper income earner in St. John's and the Avalon you'll be fine, but otherwise you will suffer the economically suicidal policies of former Premier Williams and his class of upper class types. They caused the pain, but aren't willing to pay the piper. That's the job of the "great unwashed" apparently - us.

That is where the class comes into the revolution. I get that sounds a bit Marxist - it isn't meant to be. It's just a fact on the ground here. Big business leaders in the province, and especially their lawyer buddies, are taking care of their own. The people that directly benefitted from the oil boom are making sure they're not the ones who pay now that it's collapsed. That isn't going over well. Several large demonstrations now have pointed, even indirectly, at this underlying conflict. Sure unions have been involved, but so have social justice groups and plain old taxpayers. The theme: this is becoming class warfare.

A warfare that can best be described as a revolution in the making. A revolution of thinking. A revolution of perception. There is a real sense of "revolt" in the literal sense of the word. An anger that permeates from a deep sense of betrayal. A betrayal of the working class and poor by the upper class. A squandering of wealth that had not been had to squander before, and may never again. A deep betrayal of the futures of the working people now, and their children yet to come. The immensity of the conduct of the PCs is just starting to sink in, but the anger is already quite evident every where you turn. There is not an acceptance of the inevitable. There is instead an absolute resolve to change things up - hence the revolt.

Now people have to witness a new government, this time Liberal, looking after the interests of the law firms and big business here. It is as if there was no change in government. Instead, the perception is of a tag team of wrestlers - one taking over from the other to pummel the people. That isn't surprising t those of us that study the debauchery known as politics here. The new Premier is a businessman. He is good friends with Brian Tobin who set up his Toronto political dinner  at $10,000.00 a plate. Tobin is also good friends with Williams. We all know Williams. So there you go. Fat cats looking after fat cats. Law firms making sure it's all "scrupulously" taken care of. Newfoundland and Labrador politics in the nut shell. Also, now, the target of a new class revolution forming against them by average Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Get ready to rumble.

Is Stan the Man?

Ed is out and Stan is in. The bell rings. The King is dead, long live the King. No one ever learns here. There was the blind faith placed in Danny Williams. "If Danny says it's so it must be so". Years of it. Now the province languishes on the door steps of insolvency. The caucus all rallies around Dunderdale as Leader and Premier. No one must challenge. We are on the same path. Push forward, and ask no questions thy nay-sayers. Vote Liberal! Dwight Ball will lead us to a stronger tomorrow. Look at his team. Look at its IQ. These are wondrous business people. Dwight and his team will sort it all out. It's a landslide. No point in opposing. We need an opposition - just not in my district. On and on it goes.

Now it's Stan Marshall's turn. Time to be the saviour and absolve us of our sins Stan. We can see you are so concerned about your fellow Newfoundlanders and Labradorians being buried in the Muskrat Falls mess, and the overwhelming financial crisis that you sacrificed a short period of your retirement for a mere $650K a year. It doesn't matter that you are one of the wealthiest people in the province, we'll gladly bend at the waste to pay you the same as the last guy. We know your intentions are as pure as the driven snow - right?

Now you see, there's a problem here. Good old Stan is the largest shareholder in Fortis. He may be retired, but he has a significant interest in seeing his old corporation, that he created, is taken care of. Looking across the pond he can see his old arch rival Emera challenging his beloved Fortis in the vast US electric market. On the other hand, he can see that the Nova Scotia Liberals are deregulating Nova Scotia's market - allowing his other arch foe into the fray - Hydro Quebec. How to stop Emera?  How about deregulating their cash pot market Nova Scotia, and then stripping them of all that free power they're meant to get from this province - after Emera's full in on the link of course. Wouldn't it be ironic if Emera took a bite too much and became a takeover target, for, let's say, Fortis?

Bottom line, there isn't one bone in my body that thinks Stan suddenly burst upon the scene at the pathetic begging of our illustrious Premier. There isn't one bit of me that believes Stan is not in a conflict of interest - a very obvious one. Hence the Premier of Nova Scotia's phone call to our Dwight.

But hey, let's not leave the new Board of Directors at Nalcor out of the fun. John Green, our new Chairman, was also Fortis's corporate go to guy lawyer up until at least 4 weeks ago. Yep, good old John supervised the last two major US takeovers Fortis completed. Kind of gives you the creeps thinking the Fortis take over lawyer is now the Chairman of the Board at Nalcor doesn't it? Sounds like a Fortis takeover of Nalcor almost - doesn't it? I'm sure Stan and John are as pure as the driven snow, and the fact they could destroy one of  their main competitors in the US market never crossed their minds - surely not.

As one who opposes the Muskrat Falls project I hope it is put on immediate ice, but does that mean I'll give Stan and John a free pass from scrutiny? Not likely. Liberal governments have a habit of jumping into bed with Hydro Quebec. Just look at who will enter the Nova Scotia market that Emera had a monopoly on. The big question is will the Liberal government here try and ink a deal with Hydro-Quebec that sorts out the Lower Churchill? Is it perhaps a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Fortis takes out Emera and takes it over, Hydro-Quebec get's Labrador, and Newfoundland get's to shake its collective head and ask "what the hell happened". We'll have to keep a very close watch on our new saviour Stan. I don't believe in lilly white saviours anymore.

Racism in Newfoundland

Racism is always a tough topic to talk about, because it speaks to the ugly base emotions of the human condition. It is tribalism. It is virulent, and it is widespread here. Of course, Newfoundland is not alone in that department, but it takes a particularly nasty bent here - especially when money is involved. A fairly recent example was the case of Randy Simms, mayor of Mount Pearl and previously a radio show host on the provinces number one radio show. While having a debate with an Innu chief, over caribou herds, Simms referred to Innu people and aboriginals in general as "you people" and that they were "stupid". If you can stomach a tirade. that ought to turn your stomach, I've included two of the rants here . That was the most recent and publicly available example here in the province - until now.

Last week the Nunatsiavut government, representing the Inuit people of Labrador, presented a study conducted by Harvard University, which very specifically stated the Muskrat Falls hydro project would result, among other things, in a 400% increase in methylmercury in Lake Melville. Lake Melville is a massive lake at the bottom of the Churchill River where the Nunatsiavut people hunt, fish, and drink. It's been a critical part of their lives for thousands of years. The report states that under the high (worst case) scenario that once the Muskrat Falls reservoir is filled, with only partial clearing, that up to 66% of Rigolet residents would exceed the USEPA guidelines for safe mercury levels. Currently there are 20% of Rigolet residents that exceed the USEPA standards. Furthermore, the study found that among people living off hunting and fishing may see a rise in methylmercury levels of 1500%. These are some of the points from the study. I've included it here.

Under normal circumstances Newfoundlanders would be lightening quick to denounce the poisoning of woman and children. There would be outrage. There would be screaming and condemnation in the House of Assembly - if for no other reason than to score political points. Case in point the fracking fiasco at Corner Brook. Community outrage at having fracking drilling conducted near their watershed caused the development to be stopped in its tracks. An example of the outrage is a quote from a local opponent:

"When the health of the community is at stake, when mothers have to give their children water near fracked wells, there should be a scientific consensus that the practise is safe... Why would you experiment with the health and safety of our children and not your own?

Great words and sentiment, but one problem - the government never reacted when the Inuit said the same thing after the monumental Harvard study. In fact, the public never reacted either. In fact, not one word or one question was raised in the House of Assembly about the study be the world's foremost expert on the effects of methylmercury from Harvard. There were a few short stories in the media that covered the Nunatsiavut press conference. Then nothing, except the three daily radio shows whose hosts tried to enlighten people on the issue.  However, the three open line shows were almost devoid of any talk from people calling in about the poisoning of the Inuit. By the way, the Innu would also be poisoned in a similar if not worse fashion as they live closer to the dam site.

I was shocked, ashamed, and embarrassed at the members of our House of Assembly. Ordinarily, such a report would provoke a furor. The only reasonable explanation is they just don't care enough to even bring the matter up. Why don't they care? Because it's just a few "natives" up in Labrador. Racism. Pure and simple. there is no other explanation. Even the NDP, in their third party status, couldn't muster up a single question. No outrage. No questions. As if it never even happened. There is currently a petition on line requesting Labradorians separate from the province. Is it any wonder? The Inuit, Innu, and Nunatukavut (Metis) peoples form a good portion of Labrador's population, and an even greater share of its landmass. Yet this is how they are treated by the white folks down in the pearly gates of the House of assembly in St. John's. Is it any wonder they may want to leave so they can protect themselves from the townies? Newfoundlanders would be no different, and the Newfoundland government would scream bloody blue murder if the federal government did the same to them, and have. Racism is ugly. Racism justified by nationalistic dam projects is even uglier. It's evil, and it's unforgiveable.

EPILOGUE - Randy Simms, the man who made the racist tirade, ran for the Liberal Party here in 2015, lost, and word is he's been hired by the Liberal Party as a policy strategist...

Where we're at

There is no question that Newfoundland and Labrador is in the "hurt locker". A self-inflicted hurt locker. During the period of 2004-2014 oil gave the province a sense of invincibility - fueled by the nationalist oratory of then Premier Danny Williams. He had massive, overwhelming public support. The kind of support I often refer to as the pied piper of Newfoundland leading the children into the sea. Over the last five years I have done my best through the open waves and the courts to stop the damage his agenda was going to inflict, but to no avail - a personal failure on my part. The people here simply, and blindly followed him into the sea. Now they are underwater. The betrayal will last as long as this place lasts.

But where does that leave us now? Now that the oil-fueled potential has been frittered away ($25 billion in 10 years), and the normal revenue brought in by taxation, etc has been similarly blown ( about $60 billion in 10 years), the window for making Newfoundland and Labrador a place we can all live in with ease has gone. That leaves us with the aftermath. Those of us that remain. People like David Cochrane of the CBC, who regularly trounced those of us that tried to stop the government from  building the suicidal Muskrat Falls project, will probably leave. Cochrane was gone off to Ottawa's CBC office before the ink dried on the Liberals devastating budget. Expect to see a lot more of that.

Here is where we are at today. The government is borrowing another $3 billion this year - for normal operations and capital projects ($1.3 billion of it going to Muskrat Falls). In addition, they are looking at borrowing similar amounts for at least the next five years. If that transpires as planned, Newfoundland and Labrador will have a gross debt of $33 billion by the end of 2021. Now, that's not the end of it, because that doesn't include Nalcor's debt. Nalcor right now owes just north of $10 billion. That puts the gross debt at $43 billion. That's not the end of it either. Our population was already on the downswing as the fastest aging demographic in North America. That means a lot less people to pay for this new massive debt.

That's not the end of it either though. Within the next three months the Quebec Superior Court is about to hand down a decision on who has the right to operate the Upper Churchill and how much power Nalcor is entitled to take from it. We are going to lose on both counts. Not because it's a Quebec court as all the nationalistic types will proclaim. No, the language of the Power Contract is very clear - very clear. This is simply another Williams/Nalcor bid at the high stakes gambling department with our money, and, as I've said in Court and on public media, we will lose. What happens when we lose? Our Water Management Agreement, which is basically a hostile takeover of the Upper Churchill, will be null and void. It will be unlawful to "bank" power. Without that provision, and the provision to force the Upper Churchill to run at full capacity, Muskrat Falls can only operate at 20% firm capacity. That means in order to break even power bills in this province will have to triple at  a minimum.

Think that's far fetched? Well it isn't. The math has already been done. That math by the way used the original cost figures for Muskrat Falls, and as we know those figures have grown from $5 billion to now over $9 billion including construction interest on the debt.

The point is that we are now on the edge of insolvency - bankruptcy. The same people who called us nay-sayers and alarmists, even dangerous zealots, will say this statement is similarly untrue. However, they were wrong then and they would be wrong now. At some point in time people must look past the spin and recognize the people who have been right all along. Not with parades, but with their ears and minds. Realize that a combined debt of $43 billion renders a population of 500,000 (or less) bankrupt. In default. That is the truth. You won't hear it come from the lips of the lying politicians in Confederation building, but do the math for yourself. Read the annual budget estimates. Understand the debt we have accumulated already and the debt the government intends to accumulate. Understand that failing to stop Muskrat Falls, with serious damage already caused by it, is a death sentence to the province. That is the fact and the truth.

The Liberals are already spinning in the press that we would default on the federal loan guarantee if we stopped the project. So be it. At this point defaulting on the federal loan guarantee is preferable to provincial bankruptcy. That being said, how many of you believe a Liberal government in Ottawa, who owns all seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, and which contains a Newfoundlander as Trudeau's right hand woman (Judy Foote) would place this province into a position of default? With a Liberal provincial government? It is do or die time Newfoundland and Labrador. We either stop the bleeding with emergency surgery or we die on the operating table. It is that simple and clear cut. Recovering from our current debt is almost impossible for a population this small to sustain. Recovering from the combined debt of Muskrat Falls and government operations over the next 5 years is impossible - period. Don't be fooled by what the politicians say about it. Don't be led by any more pied pipers. Do the math. Stand up. Be counted. Don't be a sheep to the slaughter. Fight. Be a fighting Newfoundlander and Labradorian.

Who is to blame?

Whose to blame for the state Newfoundland and Labrador is in? Former premier Danny Williams? No question he carries a lot of the blame. He has to. He had an iron grip on his government, and from what I can see over the years he had to - rarely has an entire caucus been so devoid of judgement and intellect that a first minister had to keep that much control over their every move. So sure, Danny Williams carries the blame for spending the vast majority of the $23 billion in oil wealth and the $50 billion of normal governmental revenue without paying out our debt or at a minimum saving a fair portion of it for a "rainy day". Irresponsible in the extreme.

But, and it's a big but, over zealous governments are often reigned in within a free and democratic society by a vigilant media and an engaged public. The truth of the matter is that the media in Newfoundland and Labrador is so utterly unprofessional that Williams and company simply did as they wished with almost no accountability. Whether it be the expropriation of Abitibi assets, which was so obviously a grab for the hydro assets of that company, or the far more catastrophic Lower Churchill project, Williams spun the move and the media lapped it up with little or no investigative reporting.

The media,  especially reporters like James MacLeod of the Telegram and David Cochrane of the CBC (now promoted out of Newfoundland) constantly berated and marginalized critics of the Muskrat Falls project for years - primarily on social media, but also in printed media. Whether it was me, Con O'Brien, Sue Kelland Dyer, Danny Dumeresque, or others the treatment was the same - "wack job". Those opposed to the spending and the Muskrat Falls project were officially classified by the government as "known critics", "nay-sayers", "merchants of gloom and doom". The media did nothing to counter that, and in fact perpetuated it, and still do.

So consumed are they by their own egos and their "place in the place" that they can't admit that they were the ones who were wrong. That they failed to properly investigate the facts surrounding the project. No, they loudly proclaimed that the "experts" knew what they were talking about and the "known critics" were but a joke - appropriate for mocking.

In a free and democratic society an informed and professional media is a necessity as it informs the public who may otherwise be too busy surviving to study and analyze topics of significant complexity - like over finances and the Muskrat Falls project. That's the same all over the world. Yet, for some bizarre reason, the media in Newfoundland and Labrador are essentially organs of the political backroom here. It's easy to see. Every election the media dutifully publish poll after poll on which party is ahead in the polls. They curtail any serious examination of the parties platforms, etc. They become like a newsmaker instead of being a news reporter. They don't investigate, but simply regurgitate what lines are fed to them by the "winning side". In other words, they lose their independence and become players in the game to stroke their own egos and sense of importance. By doing so, people like Williams simply played them like fiddles. Over and over and over.

Then came the day of reckoning. No mention in the media that the people fighting the spending and Muskrat Falls were right all along. Some, like Russell Wangersky wrote a column giving a passing mention to those who opposed what was happening, but no names. There is a reason for not personally acknowledging the critics who were right. The reason goes back to ego. The media were wrong to marginalize and personally discredit critics in the very first place. Now that everything the critics stated would happen is happening the media frankly look like the ones without credibility. They can't have that, so they leave the critics buried in the spot they left them in.

And, that's why the blame for the province's state today lies squarely with the media. They could have investigated the facts thoroughly when they had a chance to influence public opinion properly, but didn't. They acted as the PR agency for people like Willliams, glorifying him at every turn, even after he left office. They dog piled on the Liberals in the election of 2011, and then did the almost exact same thing to the PCs in 2015. They helped create the massive swings in governing parties that cause bad legislation and almost no opposition. Now the media will say: "don't blame the media", but the reality is that only serves to shield them from just criticism. Very convenient at times, especially times like today.

The truth is the media is to blame for where we are at today. They failed to hold a control freak premier to account. They failed to do research of any kind. They supplanted their opinions rather than the facts in the minds of the public. The public must be able to trust that the media is reporting the facts to them - after all, gossip is something we do at the corner store. We have to trust the media is independent and truthful, and informed. We rely on it. All democracies do. The media in Newfoundland and Labrador failed to hold a tyrannical government to account when it was needed, which gave the people the impression that all was well and the critics were loonies, and that's exactly the way the public responded. Now they have to pay the price of an egotistic and unprofessional press. For that, the press win the award for "who is to blame". Wear it well and learn.

Fire Veterans Affairs Minister Kent Hehr

I'll be the first to admit it - I liked Erin O'Toole, the Veterans Minister under the Conservatives. He came in like a breath of fresh air into a dump. Before he arrived Veterans Affairs was a nightmare to deal with. He didn't have time to clean up all the trash, but he certainly made as big a dent as he could. There was no question who he was minister of. He was a retired air force officer looking after veterans - his troops if you will. He was minister full-time, all the time,  sincerely, and unapologetically so. I miss Erin O'Toole.

Trudeau gave us Kent Hehr. Why I wondered when I quickly noted the guy had zero military experience. Trudeau did have several veterans in his cabinet he could have chosen, but no, he gave us a Calgary lawyer. It seems that Hehr's real qualification may come from the fact that he's disabled (in a wheel chair) and the thinking was he would understand what veteran's are going through. Bit of a misnomer there though. For starters, not all vets are disabled in any way. In fact, the vast majority are not. So, unless they're now lawyers, he has nothing in common with them. Those of us that are disabled due to our service could theoretically relate to a minister in a wheel chair and visa versa. That's only in theory though.

As time has marched on since Hehr became minister I've grown more and more disillusioned by his performance. In the very beginning he seemed to be quite interested in veterans, but now he refuses to converse with them on social media. Instead, he goes to the odd dinner here or there with the Royal order of this, that or the other thing and shakes hands. Mostly, though, he likes to take selfies with himself and just about everyone - other than veterans. I follow him on Twitter, and he followed me back. We exchanged a few private messages. I gave him some ideas on how to better help injured veterans. He thought the ideas were good and promised to have his staff contact me to follow up. That was nearly five months ago. Never heard from his staff, and he no longer answers on social media. He's entered the Ottawa bubble. As I follow him on Twitter, I'm amazed at just how much he tweets about that has nothing to do with veterans affairs. In fact, if you didn't know better, you wouldn't know he was minister at all.

I became so agitated by his lack of a veteran presence I decided to count his Twitter broadcasts (Tweets). Not so shockingly I discovered of the 772 tweets he's made since January 1, 2016, only 159 have been military related in some way - that's a measly 21% of his social media activity. Most of his public presence is apparently consumed with meeting movers and shakers, and doing absolutely nothing for veterans. Here's an example of a recent tweet - many are similar in nature:

FYI, this one is from the Junos.

Apart what I'm going through as an injured veteran, another incident recently highlighted my concern with Hehr. Robin Brentnall, former airbourne soldier and severely disabled veteran has just been forced to undertake a hunger strike in Gander, Newfoundland. Why? Well, Veterans Affairs Canada refuses to qualify him for a $70,000 payout that he's qualified for under the new critical injury program. In fact, Robin has even had a stroke. He is severely disabled, although he does keep his fighting spirit. But here it is, the man is on a hunger strike because Veterans' Affairs are up to their old tricks - delay, deny, die. Minister Hehr was notified of the situation and his office sent a standard reply letter saying there was nothing the Minister could do as the Appeal Board had made their decision. That's simply a lie. In fact, the Minister has the power to make any award at his discretion according to the Act. When Hehr's office found out that Robin was going on a hunger strike they sent him a letter requesting he not do it as it could make his health worse... like they care. More like, "don't do it, we don't want the bad publicity - especially if you die". Disgusting.

Here's Robin with a chest full

In my opinion, Kent Hehr doesn't have the right to shine Robin's boots. He's a hand shaking, baby kissing, elbow rubbing, selfie taking,  do-nothing politician - who happens to also be disabled. He didn't keep his promise to veterans over their life-time disability pensions, nobody knows when the Liberal's budget promises will come into effect - least of all the veterans. Just really, really disappointing. It seems like the new minister is really nothing more than a Fantino without the arrogance. He certainly is no Erin O'Toole, and he most definitely should at least come to the aid of fellows like Robin Brentnall - wounded warriors that amde a real difference.

BRIC this.

BRIC, the Brazil, South Africa, Russia, India, China economic alliance is under assault - major assault. Not in the military sense per se, but rather the clandestine, less in-your-face type way. It seems that the US is not at peace with BRIC's idea of a multi-polar world and is making it known.

Argentina is a case in point. Although not in the BRIC name, Argentina was an important part of BRIC's South American equation. In May, 2015 Russia consummated that relationship with a vast set of agreements that included funding for hydro dam and nuclear projects, oil and gas exploration agreements, and a memorandum of defence cooperation (read supply of advanced military weaponry). Argentina was even granted status as a food supplier for Russia. Then, in Nov, 2015, Mauricio Macri, leader of the "Let's change" Party, won the presidency against Christina Fernandez de Kirchner's (the one who signed the Russian deal) hand selected replacement.

Brazil is a second case in point. Brazil is a founding member of the BRIC alliance - hence the "B" in BRIC. In July, 2014 Russian President Putin and Brazilian President Rouseff signed strategic agreements in energy development, gas, health care, science and technology and defence cooperation (read arms sales to Brazil). In 2015 Rouseff initiated free trade talks with the BRIC countries to solidify their alliance. In July, 2015 Eduardo Cunha, House Speaker was implicated in a bribe scheme and immediately turned on Rouseff and her Worker's Party by calling for her impeachment. The scandal threatens to engulf Rouseff, who was re-elected in 2014 as President of Brazil.

South Africa is another case in point. South Africa is not in the name BRIC, but it is an important foot hold for the Russians and Chinese in Africa. In 2014 South African President Jacob Zuma signed an agreement with Russia to supply his country with a number of nuclear reactors. Officially that nuclear development is up for tenders now, but unofficially the close relationship with Russia seals the deal. Furthermore, the two have signed agreements in general trade and strategic military and defence cooperation agreements. In 2014, the Opposition in South Africa accused Zuma of using millions of dollars to upgrade his rural home with a swimming pool and theater among other things. Just 15 hours ago he apologized to the nation saying he did not believe the upgrades constituted a fraud and that he would repay the money. So far he is surviving, and is commonly known as a great "escape artist".

Now, in the latest move, a death threat letter to Chinese President Xi was posted on a Chinese language website in the US that is read by many Chinese. It found its way onto many domestic Chinese websites before the authorities took it down altogether. The letter states he should resign:
"Out of concern for the party's endeavors, out of concern for the future of the country and its people, and out of concern for the personal safety of you and your family." There is currently an investigation under way in China with 20 people detained - including at least one journalist. The letter refers to its writers as "we" and amounts to a challenge to the leadership of China.

All in all there seems to be a trend for BRIC countries from 2014 to present. There are only so many coincidences in politics, and even less so in the game of international intrigue. Adding up the events of the last two years it is clear that Russia and china are spear heading a Eurasia with global reach, and whose intended goal is to challenge not just American economic dominance, but also that of its currency and military. The creation of a bipolar world of the West and Eurasia is not something the US wants and considers it a threat to its "national interests". It appears the intended weapon to fight the battle, at this time, is covert political operations - not dissimilar to the events that led to the Ukrainian revolution. The larger, and as yet unanswered question, is how will Eurasia respond? Will India get cold feet and back away from its growing and cozy relationship with China and Russia? More importantly, will China use its vast and fatal economic arsenal to retaliate? Will Russia use its growing and strong military forces to respond - as in Syria? Perhaps all of the above? The old saying is don't awaken the Chinese dragon. Perhaps the same can be said about the Russian bear. In any case, watch to see how these so-called unrelated events in the countries of the BRIC play themselves out, and what if any reaction toward the West will transpire for its "BRIC this" stance.

o sign cooperation agreements in the areas of defense, education, energy cooperation, gas, healthcare, science and technology.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-and-Russia-Sign-Trade-Agreements--20140717-0206.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english

o sign cooperation agreements in the areas of defense, education, energy cooperation, gas, healthcare, science and technology.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address: 
 "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-and-Russia-Sign-Trade-Agreements--20140717-0206.html". If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english

A Budget plan for NL 2016

In two weeks from now the provincial government will roll out its budget for fiscal 2016-17. In what can only be described as a political and economic nightmare, the government is facing a budget deficit of about $2.4 billion from last year, and likely higher for this year. Key factors in calling the deficit higher this year are: a continuing decline in oil prices well below even the Liberals preliminary projections for the year just months ago; recessionary pressures caused by global economic slowdown and localized economic implosion; increasing unemployment; and curtailing of discretionary spending in the economy as a whole. Not a pretty picture.

So how to tackle the budgetary crisis? Well, the first step is realizing that it is not a spending problem or a revenue problem - it is both. That means the budget solutions need to come in both areas. In effect, the government needs to go into a defensive shell in order to preserve what financial integrity is left of the province. To show how difficult and painful that will be I've drawn up a rather draconian plan, illustrated the dollars saved, and hopefully give a sense of just how radically we must transform ourselves in a very short period of time - just to survive.

The plan goes like this:

NEW REVENUE:

1) Drivers Licences - renewed annually at a rate of $50 per year -       $19,000,000.00

2) Gas Tax - 20% increase in gas taxes -                                               $37,150,000.00

3) Tobacco Tax - 20% increase in taxes -                                              $31,415,000.00

4) Alcohol Tax - 20% (new tax)                                                            $31,575,000.00

5) HST - 2% increase                                                                           $200,000,000.00


CUTS IN SPENDING:

1) 4 day work week for all government employees                              $192,800,000.00

2) 10% cut across all government operations (incl health care)           $826,000,000.00

3) 20% cut in all professional service contracts                                     $96,375,000.00

4) 20% cut in all purchased goods                                                         $63,501,000.00

5) 20% cut in all MHAs salaries                                                             $1,000,000.00

6) Dissolving meaningless government offices/bureaus                       $60,000,000.00

7) Suspending the Muskrat Falls project                                              $600,000,000.00

TOTAL REALIZED                                                                          $2,160,191,000.00

PROJECTED DEFICIT                                                                    $2,400,000,000.00

DEFICIT AFTER THESE MEASURES                                             $239,809,000.00

So, there it is. A very draconian set of measures that would deal with both the deficit and the bloated size of our government's operations. One is an immediate tool for an immediate crisis, and one is a tool for surgically re-sizing our government for the future. A budget such as this is bound to create a deeper recession for the short term, but we are heading into one in any case - if we aren't there already. As painful as it is, in this type of plan everyone suffers. The 70% who don't pay any income tax at all are forced to share the burden with those that do. That's key, because there are far too many people in the province sitting back in the weeds, and surviving on black market jobs, etc. These people need to pay their fair share - especially now. It also forces business to take a hit by reducing professional service and supply contracts as well as sustaining the effects of an increased HST and diminishing disposable income.

Now everyone will argue they can't take the hit, but the reality is that everyone must take the hit. There is no longer a choice. But, and it's a huge but, the government can't even think of implementing an austerity budget without suspending the Muskrat Falls project. To ask the people to suffer in this way while allowing the completely irresponsible expenditure of funds on Muskrat Falls is beyond the pale, and would likely result in large scale social unrest - as if we don't have enough problems as it is.

Nalcor Steals From the Upper Churchill 2015

Now you won't find a single Newfoundlander who thinks taking power from the Upper Churchill dam is stealing. It's just taking our power that the Quebecers are stealing from us under the guise of the Power Contract 1969. Simple as that. Well, it's not as simple as that. Emotionally perhaps, but legally not so much.

For some reason, as yet unexplained to the public of this province, Nalcor, via its wholly owned subsidiary Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and its majority controlled CFLCo, has stolen power from the Upper Churchill. A lot of power. Way more power than it is allowed under the Power Contract. Yes, the contract the Supreme Court of Canada has already found is binding (1984 Reference Question).

For fiscal 2014, 2014 sales from the Upper Churchill to Newfoundland and Labrador Power (NLH) were $6, 067,000.00 according to CFLCo's financial statements. However, and it's a huge however, in fiscal 2015 NHL was sold $43,610,000.00 worth of power from the Upper Churchill representing almost 30% of CFLCo's sales for that year. According to the Power Contract, NLH can only buy about 6% of the power generated at the Upper Churchill. That means that NLH took 500% more power in 2015 than it was lawful to do. In other words, they stole it.

Correspondingly, Nalcor lost $51 million in oil sales revenue on the year. Was that massive power grab of Upper Churchill power an attempt to make its balance sheet look better than the $19 million over all it did lose? Hard to say, and legally speaking makes no difference. The bottom line is Nalcor, presumably with the approval of the Davis PC government, stole $37,000,000.00 in power (once you subtract the ordinary $6,067,000 from the gross sales for 2015 of $43,610,000.00.

What does that mean for us? It means the taxpayer/ratepayer is now liable for that in damages - plus interest, plus costs, including special costs. It also means our provincial utility is stealing. Shocking as it may seem, and yet to be discussed in the public for some reason, the quiet release of Nalcor's 2015 Business and Financial Report here says it all. 

Going Negative (Rates)

It started in Europe, has spread to Japan, and sits on the horizon for other central banks across the western world - negative rates. Historically, central banks used their interest rate setting power to curb inflation. When the national economies became too hot central banks would continuously raise their interest rate that banks had to pay in order to borrow money. Banks would then increase their interest rates to clients. Eventually, interest rates would reach a high enough point that economic activity would slow down and typically a recession would take place. That's been the traditional way to containing too much growth too fast.

But what happens when the problem is the reverse? What happens when deflation can not be stopped, and no matter how low the central banks decrease their interest rates the economy does not reengage and bounce back to growth? That is the precise problem facing central bankers across the western world. I say western world, because Russia, and to a lesser extent China, still have fairly high national interest rates - 11% and 4.5 % respectively. Other countries like Brazil and Argentina have extremely high interest rates based on their position versus the US dollar - 14.5 % and 25 % respectively. Deflation is an issue primarily facing western economies. Economies of South America typically have excellent demographics for growth with some of the youngest populations in the world, but they can't consume due to cost of borrowing, or if they do their ability to continue borrowing will be severely restrained by interest costs.

The European Central Bank, as well as Switzerland kicked off the idea that negative central bank rates were the way to go. In reality, they had very little choice. Deflationary pressures had caused the ECB to drop rates to zero, and as the ECB was not willing to allow a recession to take place in order to correct the balance, they were forced to take the other course - negative rates. Now the Central Bank of Japan has jumped on board. These central banks now charge, rather than give interest, to banks they hold cash for. The intended effect is to create a "quantitative easing" at the central bank level. When the US economy crashed in 2008, and much of the world followed, central banks infused massive sums of money into banks to "create liquidity", or in other words give banks money almost free to spur them to lend money and get the economies growing again. However, many banks around the world horded the new money, credit remained difficult to get, and interest rates continued to tumble as national economies deflated (shrunk).

The purpose of negative rates is to act as the stick in the carrot and stick game. The carrot was the "quantitative easing" of extremely low or free interest rates charged to banks - so they would lend. They didn't, or at least not in enough volume to spark the economies. So, now the central banks have brought out the stick - negative rates. The hope is that rather than lose money to the central banks by way of negative rates, the banks will lend out cash far faster and in much greater volume - thereby spurring economic growth. The possible downside to that strategy is that banks may simply take the negative rate cost to their bottom-line, write it off at tax time, and keep their money out of a deflating economy thereby avoiding risk. Accordingly, central banks have warned they will continue to increase the negative rates they charge banks until the banks finally let their fingers off their cash stores. The gamble is that the banks will do as their told, the economy will respond to essentially free cash, and the debt ridden western economies will continue to grow.

Quite a switch in roles. The central banks used to be the place of discipline. If economies became over burdened with debt they would have recessions create by imposed higher rates. Central banks were the voice of discipline and reason in the money market. Banks on the other hand, especially the litany of them in the US, were notoriously reckless in their lending. That's how sub-prime mortgages torpedoed the US economy in 2008. Now it's the banks, once recently burned, who are holding fast to some sort of economic discipline. The crucial thing here is that central banks have abandoned their role as dealers of reality, and become essentially instruments of policy that properly belong in the hands of national governments. In other words, central banks have crossed the line, and are becoming lost in their purpose.

My bet is this: negative rates will wholly fail, and fail miserably. First off, there is nowhere left to go after negative rates. That line has been crossed. A great deal of unsupported wealth and debt is being created without interest reward - which really means the value of that wealth and debt has no real value. That's a very dangerous Rubicon to cross. It's actions like this, completely undisciplined, that are creating massive uncertainty among investors, and pointing toward gold as the only real safe haven in this deflationary period. The Chinese and the Russians know it. They've been stocking up on gold for a decade. The Germans know it. They have recalled all their gold from the US, with the final delivery scheduled for 2020.

In many ways the central banks have failed us by their own greed. Rather than forsake profit now, or even more so back in 2008, they simply took on a social role and abused their power by not holding the big companies and banks to account. They bailed them out and upset the balance of nature in the finance world. They haven't stopped crossing the line since. Their role is to let nature take its course, have businesses fail if necessary so that wealth and debt have meaning. They are meant to control consumption, not encourage it. My advice to folks is the same as always, invest whatever cash you can in gold, because the central banks have left that as the only safe bastion in these deflationary times that aren't going away any time soon.  

Mr. Wakeham Saves the Day

A tribute in kind…

Mr. Wakeham saves the day

Where in the name of the

Newfoundland tabloid gods would

we be without Bob Wakeham?

And no, I’m not like some of the clueless readers who might describe Wakeham as a bombastic has-been or one of those herpes like sores that you think has receded from your lip, only to erupt once more each week on that same lip.

Because those crude and intellectually challenged readers, ladies and gentlemen, simply have failed to realize that the day little Bob picked up his first crayon was the day journalism in our fair province took that final step to legendary. Indeed, our people should hail the wisdom of Wakeham’s words not just with a provincial holiday each year, but a cast lead statue with his ferocious eyebrows gracing every school in the land as a reminder to the very young of the land that the crayon is mightier than the sword – a Newfoundland Messiah.

And don’t pay a bit of attention to the nasty naysayers that question Bob’s Newfoundlandness.  After all, he managed to heroically fight his way back to our shores from a youth corrupted by the darkness of American culture and the hallowed halls of the University of North Dakota’s journalism college.  

And never was the inescapable evidence of Mr. Wakeham’s profound influence on our tabloid newsprint more than when, as a young fella, he refused to resign as a scribe when the Telegram killed his story on the Mount Cashel scandal. No, young Bob was as determined as his stoic jaw line to carry on the good fight.

After a decade covering fires, kittens in the trees and other exciting happenings across the province, middle-aged Bob entered the hallowed halls of the CBC. Now most of us can only look in awe at the profound influence on our national debate that fellow Newfoundlanders have had. Whether it be Marg Delahunty or the equally ferocious Mark Critch, our impact cannot be discounted in those places of power. But, no surprise to anyone that has tasted his quill, Wakeham transformed the journalistic profession by bringing court room TV to our very living rooms. Think on it. Without Bob’s unwavering influence we wouldn’t have seen OJ trying on that glove that didn’t quite fit, or the perp walk we’ve all come to embrace as the gold standard of journalism in our province.

I put it to you: We owe a debt to Mr. Wakeham that can never be met. He managed, in just one life time (that we’re aware of) to transform the boring reporting of news stories to the joyousness that graces our TVs and newsprint every day. He set the standard for online radio shows that shake our senses three times a day. I’ll grant you Mr. Wakeham has not managed to go where other great minds have gone before him – historical performers like Jerry Boyle, or Mrs. Enid. It seems downright unspeakable that his insight at the CBC has been passed over for the likes of Johnny- come- lately Rex Murphy. How is it the mother corporation can’t see the striking similarities between the two – the singular raised eyebrow of Horus and the piercing eyes to match.

 Now it seems more than unfair, indeed even unjust, that poor old Bob has been relegated to a miserly Saturday column at his old haunt. So, before you think of jumping on the band wagon that says Bob is just a crusty old fella etching out his final days in sarcasm and the rage of being passed over, remember, without that dash of Wakeham we would all be a little less Newfoundlander (Labrador is just attached b’y) 

Political Appointments Commission DOA

It's hard to know for certain if Dwight Ball thinks people in this province are really stupid, or that because he's new to the reins of power people will blindly trust his moves, or what, but his first attempt at democratic reform is bordering on hilarious. During the last election Ball campaigned on taking the politics out of political appointments. In this province appointments have been used to reward political friends from the highest directorships to the kids raking the lawns in the parks. Patronage here isn't an art form, it's a way of life. That's common in Atlantic Canada give the historical lack of industry and jobs here.

However, to trot Bill 1 out as some sort of democratic reform is just plain insulting to the intelligence. For starters, the five unpaid members of the Commission are appointed by Cabinet. In other words, they are political appointments and the discussion surrounding their appointments will be secret as Cabinet Confidence requires. That's the poison pill. Now, if the Commission was appointed by a group of MHAs from all three parties, in an open forum, that might be something more along the lines of independent - as long as the choices had to be made unanimous consent. Given our system of government, that's probably as independent as it could get. Then, once the 3 MHAs had chosen the Commission it could be ratified by the House of Assembly, and given the status of Officers of the Legislature - like the Auditor General for example. That might grant them some immunity from political push back on appointments.

The next fatal flaw is that the contenders for the specific appointment will be kept secret and only the chosen appointee will be published. Well, in the private sector some privacy for human resources may be necessary, but they're called political appointments for a reason. They're political. They're public by nature. If a potential appointee has a problem with public scrutiny of their application, then perhaps they're not meant for public service. In any case, as the discredited PC Opposition has already pointed out, the Commission, appointed by Cabinet, may just put appoint whomever they like and cloak it in the secrecy of the Commission process. In other words, the Commission acts as a front for the Cabinet giving them someone to take the flak while they appoint who they wish. Good examples of this are health boards. They make the decisions, but those decisions are largely dictated by the government funds transferred to them. So, they become the fall guys - not the government.

Finally, the Minister in charge of the department that the appointee is going to decides from the "three finalists" who will be appointed. Well, that's just straight politics. The Premier says that the Minister must have the final say. That's not true at all. The Commission, once properly constituted, could have that say and the Minister can respect the apolitical decision. It's out of his hands. There is nothing unlawful or unethical about that. In fact, it takes away some of the ministerial accountability which may reduce the stress of his/her job. A Ministerial appointment is a political appointment, period in Canada. To say it is otherwise is to open yourself up to ridicule. And that's exactly what the Liberals have done with Bill 1.

The Liberals were already on the tightrope of credibility when they suddenly changed their tune on layoffs, P3's in health care, and the HST. They will quite literally fall from that tightrope when the budget is announced. Furthermore, this attempt to "depoliticize" the appointment process is quite frankly laughable. Literally, that's all you can do is laugh at it. Unfortunately for us, it's our democracy and institutions that bare the brunt of this foolishness, but we should be used to that by now. Bill 1 is just another attempt to deceive the people of the Province by a government that has just started its mandate, and is sailing into hurricane waters in a bathtub. That's the truly scary part.

Newfoundland's Political Bully Mentality

Newfoundland has a bully problem, and it's not just in the schools. In truth, Newfoundland's biggest bully problem is with the adults - especially when it comes to politics. Now the saying in Newfoundland is that politics here is a "blood sport". Nothing could be further from the truth. In country's like Saudi Arabia, or Iraq, or Lybia, etc, politics is a blood sport. Call in a team, take out a politician, etc, you get the idea. People are murdered and assassinated constantly over their political beliefs. So, for Newfoundlanders to call what passes as politics here a blood sport is giving it far more credit than it's worth. Politics in this province is more along the lines of high school cliques.

The first problem in Newfoundland politics is frankly nobody here understands how a normal democracy is meant to function. That's the simple truth that most Newfoundlanders will be truly offended by, but it is what it is. The province has been held together by a few families, bolstered by every law firm that can get its foot through the door, and then sprinkled down to those willing to do anything for a few scraps of public money. That's what passes for politics here. Nobody gets that politics is an order, and the purpose of the order is to maintain orderly human existence. I should say they get that part, but they don't get the part that rules come with the order. The first, and cardinal rule of exercising power is:

"Power, use it, but abuse it and lose it."

That's the Golden Rule. It applies to the front room politicians, the backroom politicians, the gatekeepers, the mentors, and even the black side of politics. It applies to European Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers. It applies. Their collective purpose is to support the order by doing their jobs in accordance with the above noted rule. Not in Newfoundland though. Here it's might makes right - or in other words the bully mentality. Codes of Conduct sworn to are ignored by MHAs and Cabinet Ministers alike. Blatantly lying to the public on a daily basis is so obvious, and so insulting to the intelligence that it's hard to fathom. It has all devolved now into one gigantic mess with zero public accountability. A mess caused by political corruption, political stupidity, and allowed to happen by the bully mentality.

The seeming inability of Newfoundlanders to understand how badly their system of government has become speaks largely to 500 years of political bully mentality. It's the norm. It dates back to the "merchants" and the "fisherman". That however is no longer an excuse. There are now plenty of educated young Newfoundlanders who can step up and make a difference. No doubt many of them are sitting in their political science classes and observing the implosion of their province. And it's not all about oil. In fact, very little of it has to do with the collapse of the oil price. The political implosion began well before the oil implosion began. 

Over the past five years a political revolution has been happening in Newfoundland. It's been happening on the airwaves to some degree, but mostly it's been happening behind the scenes. A dark war, a quiet war, where the political and economic casualties just keep piling up publicly - yet nobody here seems to get it. So here it is: The political families, and their cohorts, have abused their power and now they're going to lose it. In fact, that is already happening between some families, and has for a short while now. You are either onside with the change to a proper democracy for Newfoundland or you're on the side that needs to be destroyed for the betterment of all Newfoundlanders. That's the bottom line. It blows me away that so called "credible" people in this province haven't been able to see what's been happening over the past five years - let alone where it's coming from. Of course, "credibility" in Newfoundland politics is defined by the clique and broadcasted by the local media. The days of the Codfather are over, and a new order based on the rules is coming.

So, if you're one of the fat cats in Newfoundland politics that thinks democracy is just a vote every four or five years, and you can do what the hell you want in between, your days are over. Get out the sun tan lotion, and enjoy your retirement in Florida. See if you can pull off your bullying routines with the locals down in the trailer park down there. 

And for everyday Newfoundlanders, start to understand that you are entitled to dignity, respect, and the truth. Demand it. It's your right. Stop watching politics as a soap opera that you can bitch about, use as a form of entertainment because you're bored, and insist on a form of politics that respects you and respects your governmental institutions. Don't worry about being made to look stupid or wrong. Worry instead about the consequences of what you are witnessing now.

Truth is, the so called backroom in Newfoundland has been getting smoked badly for awhile now. Their little clubs are being torn apart and their powers eroded. They skate on very thin ice. Now their power to intimidate people has been taken away they don't know how to make the system work. They don't have an ever loving clue. It reminds me of a time when I belonged to a weekly breakfast club of backroom boys and they couldn't understand for the life of them how Brian Mulroney wasn't worshiped for everything he had done. That constantly brought to mind another old saying: "There are none so blind as those who refuse to see."

Dumping Canadian Hydro Power in the US Market

Electrical power exports from Canada to the the United States have traditionally made sense. The Americans had a seemingly endless need for more and more power that they couldn't keep pace with from their own resources. Conversely, Canada had massive hydroelectric sites - tapped and untapped. However, that hydro power relationship no longer makes economic sense. It can be argued that hydro is severely damaging environmentally, and that far better alternatives like solar, wind and wave make far more environmental sense. However, the argument has never been made that Canadian electrical power sales, created primarily by hydro dams, actually break US law.

Consider the following quote from the US Department of Trade:

 "What is Dumping?

Dumping occurs when a foreign producer sells a product in the United States at a price below that producer's sales price in the country of origin ("home market"), or ar a price that is lower than the cost of production. The difference between the price (or cost) in the foreign market and the price in the US market is called the dumping margin."

IN ADDITION:

"Countervailing duties. United States law provides that a countervailing duty (CVD) be applied to imports when a foreign government, person or organization is providing a subsidy conferring an economic benefit to a "class of kind" of merchandise exported to the US. Actionable subsidies may include benefits conferred directly on exports or benefits that indirectly subsidize exports."

So, the question is: Do Newfoundland and Labrador hydroelectric power sales to the United States constitute "dumping?". The answer is yes.

The cost of producing Muskrat Falls electrical power and transmitting it to the Soldier's Pond transit station for export, was estimated at 23.9 cents per kwh way back in 2012 when the project was at the DG2 process and he price was in the vicinity of $6 billion (see here). Since then the project is now estimated to be over $2 billion more that originally forecast, and we have yet to see another "cost per kwh hour to Soldier's Pond" estimate. Furthermore, Nalcor must pay transmission fees to Emera of Nova Scotia to use the Maritime Link sub sea cable in order to transmit that power to Nova Scotia and then to the US. It must also pay transmission fees to New Brunswick for using its lines. It becomes very obvious that the cost to produce Muskrat Falls hydro power is atmospherically high.

Then consider that the entire project is being built by a Crown Corporation which is solely owned and subsidized by the Newfoundland and Labrador government, and the same government is investing over $3 billion directly into its construction. Then there is the issue of the Canadian government's $5 billion dollar loan guarantee to build the project, which reduced Nalcor's 50 year bond costs to below 3%. All in all, this project is a state owned and heavily subsidized venture. That in itself isn't a problem, but when you want to take that same power and export it to the United States it becomes one.

In the US 69% of plants are owned privately, but public ownership controls 73% of production - in other words there are a lot of small plants, but the big ones are owned by governments - primarily the US federal government. That is one aspect, but here is another - natural gas generated electrical power in the US is 5 times that of local hydro power (see here). In other words, natural gas generated electricity is a dominant player on the domestic US market.

Is Canadian hydro power sold into the United States at a loss? Take Muskrat Falls power as a case in point. As stated earlier, the conservative estimate of a kwh of Muskrat Falls power to the export point in Newfoundland was 23.9 cents at DG2 - it's much higher now. Now consider that the average price per kwh in the US for 2015 was about 2.5 to 3 cents a kwh (see here). That means Newfoundland and Labrador would be exporting power for sale into the US at about an 800% loss. Clearly, that is dumping in the extreme. In fact, and more importantly, it could cause US producers of natural gas to be less competitive in their own market by artificially depressing the market, and restricting their profits to expand - ditto for solar power or other such production.

Combine the obvious dumping of this province's power with the provincial and federal subsidies used to create it, and it seems like a very strong case of dumping could be made with the US Treasury and Commerce Department. Will it ever come to that? Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't yet. It seems logical that US private producers would resent Canadian power being dumped on their market.

Steps from Armageddon

Unfortunately, it now appears the world is heading to that long prophesized war in the Middle East that we have all feared - the battle of Armageddon. The Bible describes it as a massive war in the Middle East where millions of soldiers are consumed. It begins with Russia coming out of communism (Godlessness) and doing God's bidding by taking on the forces of the Eagle (the US). It predicts that Russia will defeat the combined might of the US at the battle of Armageddon, including the Israeli army, and then there will be a large earthquake which will consume the Russian forces there. Forgive me if the biblical interpretations aren't 100%, but you get the idea.

As a young fellow I used to wonder how the "Bear" (Russia) could possibly end up in the Middle East with massive armies. It didn't seem to make sense, However, today, we are mere moments from that exact circumstance. There is no denying it any further.

In my opinion the war in Syria and Ukraine and elsewhere around the globe has to do with one thing, and one thing only - the US dollar. Simplistic as that may sound, it has been obvious as the nose on your face that China and Russia have managed to undermine American world economic dominance. The replacing of the US dollar with the Chinese Yuan, or a Yuan backed world currency, has been an ongoing issue since at least 2010 when it was first publicly advocated at the Davos world economic forum in Switzerland. China's moves since then have shown a steady path toward that goal. The Eurasian economic, and in many ways military bloc, have developed to the strategic level. The Chinese and Russians are using their reserves of US dollars to purchase hard assets (ie: Chicago Stock Exchange, Canadian tar sands, etc), and more importantly to subsidize the economic consequences of their actions. For example, while the West applied massive sanctions against Russia for the Ukraine situation, Russia simply turned to China for financial backing. The Chinese used their US reserves for the purpose. And so it goes.

The truth of the matter is this: the West has lost the economic war. It's over. It has been for awhile. The West is simply "dog paddling". Signs of this are: negative interest rates by Western central banks; zero or near zero inflation rates and economic growth; and the inability of traditional stimuli to fire up economies. It's over. We simply sit on the very cusp of complete economic collapse. The same applies to the Eurasian economies, except they are far less indebted than we are (Russia's government debt to GDP ratio is 16%, Canada is 86.51 %, the US 102.98%)  That part of the war is lost. The US/Saudi deal of the 1970's that allowed the US dollar to replace gold as the reserve currency is also undone. Saudi has been made redundant by technology for oil recovery, and by Russian and American production. In other words, the American cartel on oil has been irreversibly broken.

So all this leads us to today. One economically decaying super power facing the inevitable consequences of its own economic lack of discipline facing the rising contenders. The battlefield is switching to arms from dollars. The battlefields are the Middle East and the Pacific Rim. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, one a NATO ally, the other a US oil ally, are mere hours from starting the events that will lead to the battle that "consumes millions". A Turkish invasion of northern Syria is guaranteed. Today Saudi Arabia transferred fighter jets to Turkey to assist. That alliance also points to the almost certain invasion of southern Iraq by Saudi Arabia. That in turn will lead to the direct intervention of Iran against Saudi. If you ever watched Harry Potter, this is the real game of "Wizard's Chess". The Americans will come with their full military might to intervene (if you believe the Bible - which I do). Israel will for the most part stay pat and watch it unfold. However, even Israel will be turned on once the Americans have been defeated (if you believe the Bible - which I do).

The only question really left in my mind is: " Is this a bad thing, or is this simply God's will?". If it's God's will, and the Bible certainly says it is, then it's not a bad thing. Myself, I kind of hoped that humanity could rise above this kind of result, but that simply doesn't appear to be the case.

The Phoney War

We are living at a time of phoney war - at least that's my theory. A phoney war is a period where war-like moves are made, but the major powers of the day are not yet engaged in actual fighting. The most recent example of this was Hitler's moves in Europe before 1939 - like the Czech and Slovak Republics, etc. Acts that really ought to be considered acts of war, but for "pragmatic" reasons the world over looked them in hopes they would satisfy the aggressor. Those moves are happening today.

Consider Turkey for a moment. Turkey is at once fighting the Kurds on its own territory, and in northern Iraq, supporting ISIS and others against the Kurds in Syria. The problem in the geo-strategic sense is that Turkey is asserting its own perceived interest at the expense of world peace. It is breaking international law by fighting a "hybrid war" against Syria, and is on the verge of making that a very real conventional war in Syria - along with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is making similar moves in Yemen. In the Yemen case, Saudi has already invaded with conventional forces so there was not much pretense there of a phoney war.

In the big picture, however, today we are in a world scale phoney war. For some time I have thought on the reasoning the United States has "betrayed" its long time partner Saudi Arabia and allowed fracking to undermine the world price of oil. Purely examining today's events might leave you scratching your head. The US breaks its long time agreement with the Saudis, world control of oil for using US dollars in its purchase and sale. However, take a step outside the box, look at the many places of near war in the rest of the world, and a very real strategic move may be afoot.

My theory is this: the US is weaning itself off Saudi oil, and putting itself in a position of self-sufficiency, to insulate itself against a Middle east war that will see Saudi, Iraq and Iran lose the ability to export oil. Really its the only sensible conclusion to come to. The transition period was the last five years. Mass fracking in the US has resulted in over 4800 capped oil wells. Over production of oil has resulted in mass storage of oil reserves. Together, the result is a stockpile of strategic oil in the US, but also in Russia. The two big foes are insulating themselves against oil shortages at the same time in this phony war.

If that theory holds true, then I would expect a Middle East war to break out really at any time. Certainly the flash points are Iraq and Syria. Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and some other minor allies will make a move on Sunni Iraq and northern Syria at the same time leaving rival Iran to address two fronts at once. Clearly that will bring in the Americans and Russians - although I would bank on the Russians being there in large numbers first. In any case, the damage to the oil fields of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia would be on a massive scale. Given the technology and weapons possessed by both sides, massive damage to oil infrastructure is only a logical result.

It's funny how today's phoney war eerily points toward the biblical prophecies of the Battle of Armageddon. It's something that nobody wants to think is possible, but the signs seem to be growing all the time. It's as if we have a little self-destruct mechanism and are programming ourselves toward this fate. Of course you could always argue it's the will of God as expressed in the Bible. We have a hard time seeing it from that point of view, because we can't believe God would wish that upon us. But, God is God for a reason. We have human minds which are but a spec in the big picture. That being said, I hope I'm wrong in my observations, and analysis. Nobody should want or thirst over a phoney war. They always lead to the bigger one.