War in Ukraine 2.0

 War is coming back to Ukraine, and potentially surrounding countries as well. Back in 2014, when it was quite obvious the Western powers initiated a civil war in Ukraine, during the Olympics, to topple a President who backed off joining the EU, Russia responded by seizing Crimea and aiding separatist forces in the Lugansk and Donetsk republics in Ukraine. It was a tit - for - tat power grab by the Russians, but key to this was that it was a response to the initiation by the Americans of an "in your face" alteration to the balance of power in the region. 

The Russians claim that, in 1991, when they dismantled the Soviet Union, the United States had given their word that NATO would not expand eastward. Whether that is true or not, and the Russians never got in writing for whatever reason, the truth is that over the next thirty years NATO has expanded eastward to the point that NATO forces are right on the border of Russia itself. Historically Russia has never allowed an enemy to be on its borders without going to war over it. Now Russia finds itself having three small Baltic States as NATO members, and possible jumping off points for an invasion of Russia, or at the very least bases for offensive weapons systems. The distance from the southern border of Latvia to Moscow is just under 600 kilometers, and from Estonia a mere 140 kilometers to Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg. It's an intolerable strategic situation for any world power - the Americans would be no different (Cuba crisis).

Apart from its northwestern flank, Russia has a buffer state, which is in talks to become a part of Russia, which somewhat insulates its central flank. Even there, Ukraine-like movements had been attempting to overthrow the Belorussian President with similar motivations and alliances. In fact, it would likely have been successful if Russia had not learned from the Ukrainian lesson, and this time immediately intervened overtly and covertly to stop it. The southern flank, which has been the most pressing, is the most potentially explosive of all. 

The Ukrainian government has taken what can best be described as a "bull in the china shop" strategy in dealing with Russia. Despite being warned by Russia that any Ukrainian attempt to retake Donetsk and Lugansk Republics by force would see the end of Ukraine as a national entity, and despite knowing that Russian missiles and electronic warfare would destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure in less than an hour, the Ukrainian government continues to pursue a policy of bluff and hysteria. The goal of the Ukrainian government is to trap the Western powers in a war with Russia, much like the approach taken by Winston Churchill to involve the Americans in World War Two. To this point in time the Americans are using Ukraine as a stick to beat the Russians with, but that is all. As US President Biden said: "no American troops to Ukraine" in case of war. 

From Russia's perspective, all things centre around Crimea - the unsinkable aircraft carrier that protects their southern flank with Europe. While the Russians have built a massive bridge from the mainland to Crimea, an exposed position if there ever was one, they have struggled to supply it with the most important commodity of all - water. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian government built a dam over the only water supply route to Crimea, which could be considered a crime against humanity as it primarily targeted the civilian population there. As a result, the massive drainage conduit to Crimea has gone dry, and become overgrown with all types of vegetation. The picture below shows the dam and the clogging of the drainage conduit.

 

Sooner or later, and it now appears sooner than later, Russia will have to act militarily to secure this water supply to Crimea. It cannot have a core strategic interest so exposed. From its perspective there can be no choice. 

Ukraine meanwhile, having had years to rebuild its military, has amassed half of its military, compromising all its battle ready units on the battle lines around Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The obvious message Ukrainian message is a final battle for the Republics is coming. Many media outlets have been floating dates for such an outbreak in hostilities to happen as late January or February of 2022. Western media  outlets have suggested that is the time frame Russia will invade Ukraine, but it could just as easily be the dates Ukraine intends to send its military in, which would cause a Russian reaction. The irony of the dates put forward shut not be lost on anyone. The winter Olympics in China begin in February of 2022. The revolution in Ukraine began during the winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. The timing is likely not a coincidence. The West has refused to send any diplomatic members to the games in China, and an invasion by Ukraine, and the response by Russia allows the West to ruin China's games and place the blame on a Russia to a distracted public.

Against this backdrop we have serious moves happening in Eurasia. Russian President Putin was just in India, arm in arm with its President who declared that India had no closer friend than Russia. Just days later the Chief of Staff of the Indian military died when his helicopter crashed in India. Russia and China also just concluded a major defence alliance.  Now Russia has sent a "proposal" to NATO which would roll back strategic advantages for NATO in former Warsaw Pact members countries, including the stationing of missiles and troops therein, and ban others from joining NATO. Apparently the proposal is signed by the Russian side with blank spots for NATO to sign. In other words, it's not a proposal, but rather an ultimatum. The question remains: what are the consequences of not agreeing to the Russian ultimatum. 

They could be something as simple as a demonstration of Russia's military power, like knocking Ukraine out of existence in short order. It could also be something much bigger. It could be that Russia's hypersonic missile systems are sufficient to attack western interests and at this point the West is unable to respond to that. Most estimates put American development of hypersonic missiles well behind both the Russians and the Chinese. As the word hypersonic implies, there is no time to defend. For Russia to be making the ultimatum to NATO that it has, it must have the ability to strike with impunity. That could include all of NATO's GPS satellites, without which NATO would be finished. It could include many things. It must also have the backing of China, who literally covers Russia's rear. It must also have at least the neutrality of India. Given Russia has made the move, it's a safe bet that all those factors have been satisfied.

The only thing left to do is wait. Will Ukraine be the willing sacrifice to start a new cold or hot war? Will Russia, China and others, having been sanctioned by the West, start their new gold based system of commerce - abandoning or being thrown out of the SWIFT system for international payments? Will China have the excuse it needs to take back Taiwan? The game of chicken is about to come to its logical end, and we can but watch.  

  

How to Fix the Edmonton Oilers

 Okay, so the topic of hockey is not the norm for this blog - I get it. There will be a number of blogs coming very shortly on the usual political issues, but after watching my favorite team foe the last, few, painful months, something needs to said.

It's not that the Edmonton Oilers are a team without talent. The Oilers have talent. They even have an excellent backup defence corps that are doing the job wonderfully. That is especially comforting given the Oiler's regular defence corps has been worse than the backups. Take Barrie for example. He should be the reincarnation of Paul Coffey with his speed and offensive capabilities, but since signing his big contract he has looked like a deer in the headlights on the ice. His play in his own end has been, well, bordering on embarrassing. I had great hopes for Duncan Keith as well, but he has played panicky, "please don't hit me " hockey", and it's obvious. Sad really. There is a real short term and long term problem here for the Oilers, but defence was not exactly the strong suit of the Oilers of old, when they won all those cups. 

The Oilers were, at the beginning of the season, worried about their goaltending. Smith was good in 2020, but was it a fluke?  Koskinen was atrocious in 2020, and it could only get worse. Skinner was an up and coming prospect with no NHL experience - how would he fair? Turns out that Smith was injured a few games into the season, and Koskinen took over - much to the horror of Oiler fans. Yet, Koskinen played most of the games since, and has played well in relief. Then there is the rookie Skinner. He has played well at home, where he is confident before the home town fans, and average at best on the road. Yet, goaltending isn't the Oilers' problem either. 

The Oilers problem is their offence. There are two main problems with the Oilers' offence:

1.    The offensive players are not being utilized intelligently; and

2.    The players are not producing intelligent energy.

Perhaps the two are related. Or perhaps the proper use of the players is exasperating ego issues below the surface. The bottom line is that the Oilers' coach is not putting his lines together properly. He is trying desperately, juggling them like balls in several games, desperately seeking energy, momentum, and cohesion. Yet there is none. The answer is not as much what Edmonton's lines have, but what they don't. For example, the use of McDavid, without Nugent-Hopkins on the same line means all any team has to do is shut down McDavid and there are no other playmakers to take his place. This is what has been happening. McDavid ends up trying to do it all himself, fails, and then loses it. In other words, there is no playmaker with McDavid to free him up as either a shooter or a play maker. That means Edmonton's offence becomes painfully predictable. McDavid needs to be teamed with a playmaker, and that person is Nugent Hopkins. 

Similarly, Nugent-Hopkins is being wasted as a playmaker on a line of power forwards or grunts. He is an artist with the puck, but his line mates aren't that fancy or finishing. As a result, over 50% of his points have come on the powerplay, but his contribution at full strength has been emasculated. The same goes for Draisaitl. He is a finisher more than he is a playmaker. He can pass, but not as well as either Nugent-Hopkins or McDavid. The three of them on one line means teams cannot predictably isolate one man to take down the whole team. It means flexibility and the option for surprise. It makes sense.

The second line needs to be centred Hyman. Hyman is captain material in his own right. His spirit, talent and commitment is evident throughout the game. He is a leader. If he can't be the leader of the team, well, then he needs to the leader of his own line. A power forward, gut crashing, net smashing, line to throw a whole new look at the opponents every other shift. On either side of him put Scevior and Puljujary (the Happy Warrior). This is line full of absolute drive, and loving it. This is a line that can score and destroy, and do so shift after shift if they wish. This is a line of spirit which they can share amongst themselves. They can show the other lines what commitment is.

The third line needs to centred around young McLeod. He is a star rising, of that there should be no question, but he needs time to find all that he is. His own line, further down the rotation, gives him that confidence of place, and ability to improve without the main spot light that can shatter confidence. He can move and he can score. On either side of him place Yamamoto and Foegele. This is a line built on skill and speed competing against other's third lines not so endowed. Foegele might be a power forward, but he has excellent speed, determination and can score. Yamamoto has speed, and can score, but he should be trade bait as his size makes him an easy smear on the boards. He fights through, but it is clear that he is too small to be a difference. When he goes Turris could take his place - even before he goes. Turris has played inspired hockey this year, yet he finds himself scratched quite often. This isn't fair. He has tremendous speed and can score. He has good drive and desire. He should be playing every night on this line. 

The fourth line should be centered on Ryan. He is a wily veteran, and good on the face off. He is also a relentless fore checker, and determined fighter in the corners. Benson and Kassian should be his wingers. If the fourth line is a checking line, then these three can get it done. Both Kassian and Benson can score, but they can also check harshly, especially Kassian - if he wants to. 

That's the four lines. They need to each be given a name, aka "the French connection" or whatever like it, and they must stay together to develop their esprit de corps. Swapping players around like proverbial widgets kills all these things that are essential to developing a "TEAM", which they currently are not. Their record is only impressive if you have not witnessed each and every game. Their special teams, ie line one above, have won them almost every game. They have started each game as if they just left their stock brokers office, and the last thing on their mind is hockey. This team needs serious discipline, but before that can happen intelligent effort is required by the coach. Change the lines, then enforce the discipline of the team vision. Don't play down to your competition, but make them rise to you level - every night. This team has the talent, if it can get out of the way of its egos and entitlements.    

Puljujarvi

DraisaitlSceviour