tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62713119765516435522024-03-17T18:39:53.732-06:00ROCK SOLID POLITICSBrad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.comBlogger357125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-23062105654003543002023-08-29T13:42:00.004-06:002023-08-29T13:43:57.314-06:00Operation Guillotine - The Coming Russian Counterattack<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihqxG-2Od0CPcx8VPNzuv8uW2k9-Ijw1udRmAYPoJpnuxSEKMJ-GUgp60wRu-2iNz17TZqVPq2i702k323ryd0nUdVDOKdakodBlevWOC24oH6hKjAWVXah9fM7Fcz6_EX2VoAmUw5ahygAYGMvs6PgHGP2N3nFWIgWBS2DOQalZF_JHyy32jE2lFLmbI/s480/army.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="480" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihqxG-2Od0CPcx8VPNzuv8uW2k9-Ijw1udRmAYPoJpnuxSEKMJ-GUgp60wRu-2iNz17TZqVPq2i702k323ryd0nUdVDOKdakodBlevWOC24oH6hKjAWVXah9fM7Fcz6_EX2VoAmUw5ahygAYGMvs6PgHGP2N3nFWIgWBS2DOQalZF_JHyy32jE2lFLmbI/s320/army.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p><p>Lessons of war: every war is different, yet the basics remain the same - isolate and destroy. There is a hard way and their is an easier way to defeat your opponent. There is the art of war, and their is the wall of reality. The Ukrainians have shown more creativity and initiative in the art of war - likely through the eyes of their backers. The Russians started the war with a lot of imagination and initiative, but hit the wall of reality that splitting your forces is the best way to have them devoured - the wall of reality. They were forced to recoil, and the Ukrainians simply followed their retreat out of Kherson, Sumy, Kiev, and Kharkov Oblasts. The Ukrainian advance stooped just west of the Oskil River when Russian contraction allowed them to solidify defensive lines. The Ukrainians then made several ill-advised offensives for the flanks of the destroyed city of Bakhmut, which unnecessarily ate man power, resources, and time. They are currently attempting to capture Tokmak as a gateway to the Azoz Sea coast - which is mired in failure. The time may be ripe for a massive Russian offensive to decisively end the war. </p><p>LESSIONS OF WAR</p><p><span>One of the biggest lessons of this war has been flanking major concentrations of enemy troops without sufficient distance between the parties is a recipe for loss. Loss can be in momentum, in troops, in equipment, in morale and in time - all enemies of a successful military campaign. We have witnessed this from both sides in this war. Whether its the endless Russian quagmires of Avdiivka and Marinka, or the Ukrainian quagmires of Bakhmut and Zaporizhia. Limiting <span> </span>yourself to a flanking that exposes your forces to the maximum range effect of the enemies <span> </span><span> </span>artillery support, and mining, guarantees that your efforts will result in stalemate at best. This <span> </span>has become the reoccurring theme of the Ukrainian War. So lesson one is flanking pincers must bypass major troop concentrations - not engage them. That's Blitzkrieg 101. The strategic aim to cut off supply to the enemy BEFORE engaging them in an attrition battle.</span><br /></p><p><span><span>Lesson number two: piecemealing forces is a recipe for disaster. We witnessed the Russians commit this terrible strategy when they invaded Ukraine. It ended up in a loss of: momentum; troops; equipment, morale and time. The Ukrainians were able to survive and rebuild. What has happened since is piecemeal attacks by both sides, with the exceptions of Bakhmut and Mariupol, which have resulted in mass casualties with no significant progress - near stalemate in other words. Wars are not won on offensives conducted by battalion or less groups, yet that is what has been happening along almost all parts of the front by both sides - resulting in nothing but casualties and losses in equipment. </span><br /></span></p><p><span><span><span>Lesson three: concentrated, long range attacks against strategically imperative targets are highly effective. The Ukrainians essentially made the Russian positions in Kherson Oblast untenable when they rendered the Kherson bridge unusable. The Russians have been terrible at this - for <span> </span>some reason. For example there are only two Ukrainian rail bridges crossing the Dnieper River: the Amursky Bridge in Dnipro; and the Petrivskiy Bridge in Kiev. Both those bridges still stand and allow Ukraine to transfer Western arms and ammunition to its forces in the most efficient <span> </span>way possible, rail, given the size of the country. The hydro dam bridges that dot the Dnieper remain<span><span> </span></span>untouched - ditto for the car bridges. This one lesson appears to be completely lost on the Russian leadership, and has been a major strategic mistake harming Russian forces on a daily<span> </span>basis.</span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span>Lesson four: minefields stop troops and equipment from moving - Zaporiozhia for example. </span></span></span></span>They can be used in an offensive or defensive posture. They can stop troops from advancing, and they can stop troops from retreating. Essentially, Russian mobile mine-laying units, like the modern ISDM Zemledelive, can be paired with armored formations to fix enemy flanking forces in place while bypassing them to greater depths. In a Blitzkrieg-like offensive, the ability to instantly trap the enemy in strongholds while on the move opens the doors to large advances. It is a combined-arms operation that hasn't been utilized well by the Russians. </p><p>Frankly, the lessons of this war could be covered in a very thick book, and a simple blog can hardly cover it all. The bottom-line is the Russians are about to initiate a very large offensive of their own, and the only question is where and how. </p><p>OPERATION GUILLOTINE</p><p>PHASE ONE</p><p>Given the lesson the Ukrainians taught the Russians in Kherson, which the Russians should have foreseen, any coming offensive must first sever the artery of supply. Without food, ammunition, and fuel a modern army cannot survive for more than weeks, so cutting supply is the first priority. To that end the Russians must first conduct a massive airstrike on Ukraine's most capable air defences - the German and American AD. Simultaneously, the Russians must destroy the railway bridges over the Dnieper so that Ukraine can no longer supply its forces with mass railway movements - that's two bridges. With major air defences destroyed, Russian strategic bombers focus on destroying Ukrainian artillery regiments in the Sumy/Kharhov regions. </p><p>PHASE TWO</p><p>Russian airborne forces conduct mass drops along the river just west of Poltava. Their objective is to secure the river crossing (no bridges needed) for the coming armored and mechanized infantry forces that will surround Poltava and move on to Kremenchuk and Dnipro. The Russian Army will use two centres for the start of their operation: Kursk and Belgorod. The Kursk group will flank the city of Sumy at a distance, isolating it as it goes with mobile mining, and proceed to the crossing points the airborne have secured. They will then isolate Poltava in the same fashion as Sumy, and proceed to the Dnieper. The second grouping, from Belgorod, will also flank Kharkov at distance, isolating it in the same fashion with mobile mining, then move to the eastern part of Poltava, isolating it, and meeting up with the Kursk grouping at Dnipro. It is critical that the route of the advance is not too narrow, avoids rivers requiring bridges, and is open enough for armored/mechanized warfare. No forests, no rivers, no cities and as few tree lines as possible.</p><p>PHASE THREE</p><p>Having secured its positions in Phase Two, the Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine will be trapped and without supply. The Ukrainian forces in these areas will have no choice but to surrender. They won't do so immediately, but the plight of the troops and the fury in Kiev will likely force the Ukrainian military/government's hand. A show of successful force in a decisive manner, will likely quiet the war drums beating in places like Poland, etc. However, even if this offensive succeeds, and it does not quiet the warmongers, it will leave Russia in the position of controlling all of Eastern Ukraine, and opens the doorway to Odessa. Time will tell what path the Russian military/government choose, but whatever they choose must incorporate the lessons of this war, otherwise the fingers must be pointed inward. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiQ0NUZbiVjyJA6bSGGfVHdlDQ4YwPekfAtxClQFQ0s9aM9qR9N5RUPKP-9b3YnuFoMy4HCE6eTWkVKQPnXqwa3uyS9ZYFbMmWcOGvqoO7Uj8WgGUr6K_1C6FM7jeVo3ZCtbgOufKp3fLtQweyGDwZrEXbBbZPpMd4uG1bku64pyYlMg4snf6_fYw20sk/s2016/Russian%20Offensive.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1512" data-original-width="2016" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiQ0NUZbiVjyJA6bSGGfVHdlDQ4YwPekfAtxClQFQ0s9aM9qR9N5RUPKP-9b3YnuFoMy4HCE6eTWkVKQPnXqwa3uyS9ZYFbMmWcOGvqoO7Uj8WgGUr6K_1C6FM7jeVo3ZCtbgOufKp3fLtQweyGDwZrEXbBbZPpMd4uG1bku64pyYlMg4snf6_fYw20sk/w561-h432/Russian%20Offensive.jpg" width="561" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-73818448269017346822023-03-27T14:40:00.002-06:002023-03-27T14:40:25.279-06:00Ukrainian and Russian Offensive Options<p> It's been just over a year since Russia launched its "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine, and what a year it has been. Many mistakes have been made by both sides, and if NATO had not intervened to supply Ukraine with weapons, and just as importantly money, this war would have been over in three months at the most. In particular, shoulder fired anti tank weapons paralyzed the Russian advance, which due to the time of year, was reduced to funneling along road ways which became killing zones. The Russians, having lost the initiative of a quick lightening attack, became overstretched and in a vulnerable position. The Ukrainians took advantage of that by launching their offensive in Lugansk, Kharkov and Kherson oblasts. The Russians then had no choice but to with drawl to a defensive posture that its army could defend. That sums up the first year of the war more or less. </p><p>The big question is what are the next battlefield moves. Ukraine is facing some difficult choices in this regard. Although much has been made by Ukrainian and Western propaganda of the successful Ukrainian "counter offensive" (which is the political term for counter-attack") in driving Russian troops back, this is a bit of a stretch. The truth is when Russia failed to capture Mykolaiv, and thereby open the door to Odessa, the only real defensive position they could take was the city of Kherson and the Dnieper River. American exports of Hymars rocket systems to Ukraine, which constantly damaged Russian crossings of the Dnieper, forced Russia to abandon the city of Kherson and establish defensive lines on the opposite side of the Dnieper. Up until that time, Ukrainian troops were suffering defeat after defeat in the fields north of Kherson, so it wasn't Ukrainian offensive tactics that one the day, but rather strategic tactics.</p><p>In Kharkov/ Lugansk oblasts it was a similar story. It was not so much a feat of arms that dislodged the Russians from this area - it was overrun because Russian forces were very over stretched and had to withdraw to defensible lines. That brings us to today. The Russian Army is no longer in a position of being overstretched. It has had time to reinforce defensive lines along the front, and increase the size of its forces engaged in the conflict by 300,000 troops (not including Wagner units). Importantly, the Russians have hurriedly upgraded their acquisition and use of drones. This leaves Ukraine with the stark choice of where to conduct an offensive (the much touted "spring counter offensive") as demanded by their Western allies. </p><p>The most talked about, and perhaps obvious choice is an attack along the southern front from Zaporizhzhia, which would aim to capture Melitopol and Mariupol - effectively ending the Russian land route to Crimea. However, that option is also obvious to the Russians, and the area has been heavily fortified and reinforced. The Russians also have the advantage of almost immediate air and naval support from Crimea and area and Rostov-On-Don. While the Ukrainians may try this in an act to appease their backers, should they use massive resources to do so, and lose, their war could be over. Therefore, from a Ukrainian perspective, a large southern assault should be out of the question. Ditto for attacking Crimea in force. That leaves the Donetsk city front, the Bakmut front, or the Russian front as options. </p><p>Both Donetsk and Bakmut fronts are fortified areas that would chew up Ukrainian troops. While a significant attack in Bakhmut, when the ground is dry, may cause the Russians to withdraw, the Ukrainians would be faced with the Severodonetsk area. Built up area after built up area, mostly in ruins. As World War Two showed, cities full of rubble make the job of defence much more easy for the defenders. That leaves the last option - the Russian front.</p><p>In the last year Ukraine has shown two traits: embarrass Russia; and try to provoke a greater war in the region. The ideal way to do that would be an invasion of Russia itself - namely Belgorod. Belgorod is a Russian city very close to the Ukrainian border. Not far away from Belgorod is Kharkov, which remains firmly in Ukrainian hands. The Ukrainians can use Kharkov as a strategic supply point for their troops entering Russia and a battle for Belgorod. Undoubtably the Russian military would see such a buildup in Kharkov with their satellites, but what if they decide it also serves their strategic purposes that Ukraine makes such a move. Given that all the other fronts will cost Ukraine massive casualties and loses of equipment, it makes sense to kill a few birds with one stone. No doubt their allies would say "you can't expect Ukraine to fight on its own soil only when it was invaded by a hostile act..." </p><p>On the other side of the fence, Russian military planners have to decide what their next move is. While the intel on Russian forces dispositions is limited to us, we know they called up 300,000 reservists. About 80,000 of those were current enough in their training to join the conflict immediately. Where the other 200,000 plus are is a bit of a mystery. Many channels are suggesting these troops have been going through thorough training with combat veterans. If that is the case, and they have not yet been committed to the fight, Russia has a powerful force for its own spring offensive. However, I doubt this will be the case. </p><p>Russia, unlike Ukraine, has no pressure from its allies to conduct an offensive en masse. It seems quite content to engage, pin and destroy Ukrainian units - namely in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. It uses mainly conscripts in Bakhmut, and thereby destroys Ukrainian units while leaving its regular army in one piece. This is how the Russians do military strategy and they have in every major war they've been involved in. Fewer people at home complain about losses when they are people who were in prison. The same mentality exists in the West, but is rarely acted on as it is in this case. Russia has also learned, you would think, that big offenses that stretch your troops too thin bring drastic consequences. </p><p>To avoid these consequences I believe Russia will stand pat until after the Ukrainians commit their troops in an offensive. Once the Russians have defeated the Ukrainian offensive they will go on the counter-attack. That is likely the time that the 200,000 troops in training will be committed, but to where?</p><p>Given that the Russian Army is currently trying to take Bakhmut many speculate that Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will be next. However, both cities are heavily fortified and would prove to be worse than Bakhmut in terms of manpower/equipment necessary, time and casualties. It makes more sense that the Russians would head south from Bakhmut, through Kostyantynivka and onto Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk is a hub city like Bakhmut, and capturing it would cut off Ukrainian troops entrenched around the city of Donetsk. The Russians are currently fighting in, and have captured most of Marinka. Once Marinka is captured the Russians could move along the road to Kurakove. Once Kurakove is captured the Ukrainian Army in Donetsk city area will be fully surrounded in what the Russians like to call a "boiler". Cut off from resupply, and unable to retreat, the enveloped Ukrainians will have no choice but to surrender. This seems like a logical path for a Russian offensive. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju5NKTwiOXxbifrhahZJnqAJZ68zO_J8adMzRk4Srdd0RZ5yMMapS5r0zQHzkEihUGiGKlsBS6UY9O_N0Sr2EbQHn3NyNb2KDvr7qSmZJQHkPcXhBAxNXUU4maNsf9z5ww3Us71ZFmFi0qZR1l1x92X1EtgV1X471r_U67dvzDBgXnC2yKsNdnZxXn/s574/R.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="513" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju5NKTwiOXxbifrhahZJnqAJZ68zO_J8adMzRk4Srdd0RZ5yMMapS5r0zQHzkEihUGiGKlsBS6UY9O_N0Sr2EbQHn3NyNb2KDvr7qSmZJQHkPcXhBAxNXUU4maNsf9z5ww3Us71ZFmFi0qZR1l1x92X1EtgV1X471r_U67dvzDBgXnC2yKsNdnZxXn/w320-h358/R.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Whatever the case may be in the coming months, look for the Ukrainian Army to make the first move, and Russia to take the advantage in response. </p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-3864807323573411322023-02-01T14:02:00.004-07:002023-02-01T14:30:02.162-07:00Requiem for My Brother <p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDQKV743GHE0iz9pGhyjaD97N8sByGmMlHHSM7Nf8euuGKTEraHbUTBvg53rM-PGLjdCXrso_bqOKuSlV9P6tbEqfWJ_NdWIHSzz2-h8Xm3L4-_6xqq3psBssjxwyH3FNVFGyUWLRTER6cYhTTDSJXwNz3f_iV5cYy-MLaFNLqI7YNC3jnVYG1mAj-/s1669/Dave%20and%20I.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1135" data-original-width="1669" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDQKV743GHE0iz9pGhyjaD97N8sByGmMlHHSM7Nf8euuGKTEraHbUTBvg53rM-PGLjdCXrso_bqOKuSlV9P6tbEqfWJ_NdWIHSzz2-h8Xm3L4-_6xqq3psBssjxwyH3FNVFGyUWLRTER6cYhTTDSJXwNz3f_iV5cYy-MLaFNLqI7YNC3jnVYG1mAj-/w414-h334/Dave%20and%20I.png" width="414" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">David Robinson (Dave), my big brother.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">For most of my life I did not know Dave existed. You see Dave was a war child. My father served in the Canadian Forces during WWII, and he met Dave's Mom there early in the war. My Dad was underaged ( a lot more than they knew) so he had to have his commanding officer's permission to marry Dave's Mom, which was finally granted. Dave was born thereafter. I didn't know about Dave's Mom until after Dad had died, but I did recall the story my Dad used to tell of being in a field with a girl friend when the sky darkened with German bombers flying low over England to strike a target, so low he could see the pilots' faces, and that he was forced to slap the girl as she was hyper-panicked and trying to run. He feared for her life. That was Dave's Mom. She and Dad survived and the rest is history.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Then, in 2004, my sister received a phone call from a British man looking for my mother. It was Dave. After some 59 years he had reached out to connect with the Canadian family he never knew. He was gentle on the phone, kind even, and very concerned about "rocking the boat". The fact that none of us knew he existed was a shock to all, but a pleasant one as well. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">After speaking with Dave it became clear that after the war, his mother came to Montreal with little Dave in hand to start a new life with my Dad. Unfortunately, given my Dad's six years of front line experience during the war, he suffered PTSD, and the marriage crumbled. By 1948, Dave and his Mother were back in the UK, seemingly lost to us.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In 2007, my wife and I went to see Dave in England for the first time. When I met him it haunted me that his eyes were the same as my departed Dad's. It took awhile to get past that. He got out of his wheel chair and gave me the world's biggest bear hug. At 220 lbs then. I was no shrinking violet, but there was no denying the sheer strength my brother possessed. At the same time he openly wept at the joy of meeting his little brother for the first time. In a way, which wasn't aware to me at the time, those two qualities were the pillars of my brother - strength and sensitivity. The third pillar, as I was to find out, was his sense of humor, which we shared. His wife Carol was also a great support for him (and me) during these early days, and those to follow. Sadly, Carol passed away a year before Dave, and just as I thought that surely he wouldn't survive it, he did. Strength.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">During the 18 years I had with my brother Dave we had many good times - despite his chronic military injuries (and mine). Dave even managed to travel to Canmore, Alberta for my wedding even though he had to use an electric wheel chair to move about. I discovered he was a big a flirt as me (maybe more). He was the subtle one and I was the not so subtle one. We shared our love for helping others in need - a calling to serve. We enjoyed the same rock music. He enjoyed reading my blogs here. Although we did not always agree on my conclusions, he was supportive of my writing. He talked me through life issues, my dealings with Veterans Affairs over my own injuries, the nightmare that was Newfoundland politics, and even issues with my kids. In other words, he was living up to one of his own sayings: "to share is to care". I see his traits, which are in many ways genetic traits, in his own children and grandchildren. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Ian, Dave's only son, had a career in the security/police services, and is now a retired, and a writer (the writing gene is in our family). He too suffers from health issues that can be traced to the roots of my father's Newfoundland family. Yet, he too remains strong and determined to meet challenges and beat them - which he continues to do much to his credit.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Carolyn, Dave's only daughter, has been a care giver her whole life - personally and professionally. Carolyn and her husband Spence have two great sons, and Dave was very proud and loved both of them. He cherished Aiden's special qualities and the two of them apparently shared a special sense of humor. Unfortunately, Aiden suffers from a serious physical condition that is also in our Newfoundland family's gene pool. Dave's other grandson Sam was also very special to him. He is very much like Dave, and that can only be good for him in this life. He also has the gift of writing, and the poem he read at Dave's funeral was truly beautiful. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Despite the tumultuous and sad beginning of Dave's life, he was able to persevere as a truly compassionate husband, father, grandfather, uncle, and yes brother. You could not keep his spirit down. He could not be turned. He gave me the gift of having a brother who was all the things I wished I could be, and therefore aspire to be. Despite being bullied for "not having a father" as a child in the UK school system, he grew up to be a wonderful father. He never became embittered at all. He was my big brother. God bless him. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-88054307059689190182022-11-21T20:55:00.001-07:002022-11-21T20:55:15.894-07:00Russia's EMP hits Ukraine<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQE42BhbKSXMV9Zz5z1st13FUd-G5x-gRBidNe7et_Hb8tl_GlLD2y_Eh-Oq9OA1orbGmggoag2E00zy7gvfxQ33Zgx1szWkMFGNcyZAP50WJOcAhWEoQiZNgZWkpC-EQSlR7eo7sUzeH8a_2XyMVVSBA9K9chx9k3VpAMVb6izClgXuNDvrfWYmMt/s600/emp_attack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="600" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQE42BhbKSXMV9Zz5z1st13FUd-G5x-gRBidNe7et_Hb8tl_GlLD2y_Eh-Oq9OA1orbGmggoag2E00zy7gvfxQ33Zgx1szWkMFGNcyZAP50WJOcAhWEoQiZNgZWkpC-EQSlR7eo7sUzeH8a_2XyMVVSBA9K9chx9k3VpAMVb6izClgXuNDvrfWYmMt/s320/emp_attack.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Nine months into the war between Russia and Ukraine, and to say it has been topsy turvy would be an understatement. Russia began the attack on Ukraine with a five-pronged assault, which was clearly aimed at forcing the Ukrainian government into a quick capitulation on Russian terms. However, Russia picked the wrong time of the year to go on the offensive which, when combined with western anti-armor missiles and satellite intelligence proved to be the impediments to Russia's victory.</p><p>Russia's war on Ukraine has been akin to "what not to do" when invading a foreign country. A very crucial mistake by the Russian military was forgoing an air campaign against Ukraine's air force, air defence units and critical infrastructure like the bridges over the Dnieper River. The winter weather in February meant Russian armor and mechanized infantry, along with truck-borne supply lines, were road-bound and sitting ducks for Ukraine's newly acquired shoulder-fired anti-armor missiles. </p><p>Things quickly bogged down, and in short order Russia was having to conduct fighting withdrawals around Kiev, Sumy, Kharkov and areas. The undermanned gamble turned into the undermanned being exposed. New lines of defence were shortened to give out numbered Russian troops a fighting chance at holding what they had left. Unfortunately, even that was too much ground for them to defend, and subsequent withdrawals were needed in Kherson and Kharkiv. Essentially, this was a military disaster born of political strategy rather than sound military strategy. It has all the hall marks of Russian President Putin's thinking at the time - treat Ukraine nicely as they are brother Slavs and brotherly nations. So much for brotherly love. </p><p>That brings us too today. Having crossed the Dnieper River, and feeling safe there, Russians have dug in to defend their land bridge to Crimea. On the Donetsk/Lugansk fronts the Russians and Ukrainians are trading moistly fruitless attacks all along the front. Ukraine appears to be transferring freed up units from the Kherson front to the Zaporozhye front. It appears they are preparing an assault aimed at taking back Melitopol and Mariupol, thus severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea, and gaining their access back to the Azoz Sea. It is a tall order, especially as winter begins to set in, but being audacious hasn't tied the hands of Ukrainian commanders so far. </p><p>The Russians, for their part, seem to be considering doing what they ought to have done in the first place - an air campaign. The "Coalition of the Willing" bombed Iraq for 30 days before sending a single unit into the fray. Now Russia is doing the same in retrospect - having already suffered the losses which an air campaign is meant to avoid. The interesting part of Russia's strategy has been targeting Ukraine's electrical system. As of this date, the Ukrainian government claims 50% of its electrical systems have been destroyed. Replacement parts to rebuild these systems can take up to ten months to manufacture. It's a recipe for disaster for Ukraine.</p><p>Every person that lives in a country with harsh winter understands that without energy you cannot sustain life. It doesn't end there. Ukraine can evacuate its population to Europe, but what it can't do is save its infrastructure. Namely, without heat all the plumbing, water and sewer, will freeze solid over the winter. Homes will be ruined, businesses will be destroyed, water and sewer plants will be left useless, and Ukraine will become a ghost land. What the Russian missile campaign has managed to do is roughly the equivalent of an EMP strike without the nuclear detonation. If Russia continues its campaign to completely destroy Ukraine's power system, and in the process destroys the infrastructure necessary for modern life, then the result is the country of Ukraine is a vast, vacant land with no ability to reconstitute itself without Russia.</p><p>Furthermore, the tens of millions of Ukrainians that will have no choice but to evacuate Ukraine will flood Europe, which is already desperately rationing power for its own citizens, resulting in an economic shock to Europe and possibly the world. The effect on the battlefield will be just as devastating. Troops will lack the basics to heat and feed themselves. Supply lines for just the basics will stretch across Ukraine and into Europe - a recipe for disaster. Many people in the general public do not understand just how close to the abyss Ukraine is right now. Not unlike Russia in the early days of the conflict, people see Ukraine as walking over the Russians. However, not unlike Russia in the early days of the war, Ukraine is becoming overstretched given the collapse of its infrastructure and the march of "General Winter".</p><p>A number of sources have been suggesting that Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum: Get to the negotiation table by the end of November or have the last of your electrical infrastructure destroyed. Effectively, get to the negotiation table or have your country sent back to stone ages. A daunting choice indeed. Ukraine has apparently responded to this strategy with a kamikaze-like strategy of its own - missile strikes on the Russian controlled nuclear plant at Zaporozhye which, if the plant is damaged, would have the effect of a nuclear strike with deadly radiation spreading over the region - including Russia. When it gets down to it, both countries are upping the ante to a nuclear war without the nukes. This is where it's at with nine days left in November as Ukraine begins to slowly freeze over.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-26987334900623401622022-09-10T12:10:00.013-06:002022-09-10T12:15:42.221-06:00Russia's failings in Ukraine<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgccu8TpGu83WqqDXrNjAGWSpP7nwmFQFc_4GFX3p5LG8dR3BacRhrhIbNAkpOmbMN3uHEKAp2e_W4OGo5aXa8cGIo5eDzKG3j-Z9FBu1BW7gatNnEcCDyW2qDHOTXp4Xpvt7SjJUHUIC_W95sBGE81ICCBCM8kwffo-yp5iY0JSLq_V6zJOTX9mkV3/s474/Putin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="316" data-original-width="474" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgccu8TpGu83WqqDXrNjAGWSpP7nwmFQFc_4GFX3p5LG8dR3BacRhrhIbNAkpOmbMN3uHEKAp2e_W4OGo5aXa8cGIo5eDzKG3j-Z9FBu1BW7gatNnEcCDyW2qDHOTXp4Xpvt7SjJUHUIC_W95sBGE81ICCBCM8kwffo-yp5iY0JSLq_V6zJOTX9mkV3/w500-h331/Putin.jpg" width="500" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p> The Russian invasion of Ukraine has three primary goals: geo-strategic; strategic; and tactical. The geo-strategic goal is decouple Russia from the Western economy and integrate heavily with China and other Eurasia leaning nations. The invasion of Ukraine resulted in massive sanctions as promised by Western powers, and as a result Russian President Putin was able to get his population on board with decoupling. Putin's moves to bolster the Ruble by requiring for purchases of oil and gas is a good example of this. On the geo-strategic front it is clear that Russia has won the war.</p><p>The picture is a lot less clear on the strategic/tactical front. On the strategic front, Russia's primary goals are clearly to make Crimea sustainable as an unsinkable air craft carrier that dominates the Black Sea. To achieve that goal Russia must, at a minimum, secure Kherson and Zaporizhzia oblasts (provinces). Unfortunately for Russia, the war in Ukraine has shown that Crimea is very vulnerable if Odessa oblast is not secure. The strikes on Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and air bases located on Crimea make it crystal clear that securing Crimea means securing Odessa oblast. To this end Russia has not put as much as a dent on Odessa, and it must be said that strategically they are failing here. </p><p>The other areas of strategic necessity are the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics, which are collectively known as the Donbass (region). The Donbass gives Russia strategic depth on its southern flank which is critical to protecting its underbelly. Donetsk Republic contains massive gas and oil fields (mostly untapped as yet) which a Eurasian Russia would want in its back pocket rather than the West's. For all the above reasons, the oblasts that are strategically necessary for Russia are: Crimea; Kherson; Zaporizhzia; Donetsk; and Lugansk. Another city that is very important for Russia to capture is Kharkov/Kharkiv. Kharkov is Ukraine's largest city and it is located right on the Russian border. As such, Kharkov offers a main supply and logistic hub to any forces (Western included) to invade Russian territory. With the notable exception of Kharkov and Odessa oblasts, Russia has secured, or is securing the remainder of the oblasts. It has therefore been roughly 70% successful strategically. </p><p>The tactical picture, however, has been a nightmare for Russia. Starting with the Russian air force. Recall US heavy bombers carpet bombing the Taliban which paved the way for the Northern Alliance to advance and defeat the Taliban (short term). So, where are the Russian heavy bombers and the carpet bombing of Ukrainian formations? Russia has 125 strategic bombers, but is not carpet bombing Ukrainian forces. That is the number one tactical failure. Why is the Ukrainian air force able to still fly planes and helicopters over Ukrainian air space? Russia has 1533 fighter jets, but is unable to establish air superiority over Ukraine. That is the second tactical failure. Why has Ukraine been able to strike Russian air fields, bases, ammo depots, ships, and important bridges with their missile systems? Russian air defence has at least 410 launchers of the S-400 variety. That doesn't include the S-300, Pantsir, or other systems. It seems here that Russia is reluctant to use the S-400 system in an effort to keep that system cloaked from NATO. However, the failure of Russian air defence systems has been a very serious third tactical failure for Russia.</p><p>The failure of the Russian Navy to make much if any impact on the war is notable. The Black Sea Fleet has not been decisive in any way during the conflict, despite the fact Ukraine no longer has a navy. Not to mention the Moskva, the flag ship of the Black Sea fleet, that was destroyed by the failure of the aforementioned Russian air defences in Crimea. A fourth tactical failure for Russia. The list goes on. </p><p>In some ways it is amazing that Russia has been able to make the progress it has. That progress is largely attributable to the arm of the Russian Army that has not failed - the artillery and missile forces. Russian fire power has dominated the battle space. Other units that have distinguished themselves are: airborne forces; Chechen forces; and Spetsnaz forces to name a few.</p><p>In a sense, Russia has been the author of its own tactical failures in Ukraine. It's the old "half-pregnant" strategy that dooms every military in history that has tried it. Unfortunately, it looks like political objectives are knee capping military operations. Russia entered this war because, as US President Biden said, "it has no choice". Ukraine was preparing to invade and put down the self-declared independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Either Russia acted or it watched Ukraine take strategic territory back. It's the "how" it reacted militarily that has caused all the issues for the Russian military since. Rather than using an air war, for at least a month as the US did in Iraq, the Russian military attacked with almost no air war first. That can be considered akin to charging trenches without artillery first...</p><p>The initial goal was to topple the Ukrainian government in a lightening strike on Kiev. That is what the columns form Belarus and Belgorod areas were meant to do. The massive forces tied up in this operation, political gamble if you like, could and should have been deployed in the south of Ukraine to undermine the rear of the Ukrainian defences in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. This is only common sense militarily. The soft under belly of Ukraine if you will. All bridges on the Dnieper River should have been destroyed by air and missile forces, in the first hours of the war, to cut Ukraine in half and deny reinforcement and resupply to Ukrainian units trapped in the east. These are military goals and are not based on wishy washy political gambles. </p><p>Whether Putin took advice from others or not, the responsibility for the tactical failures of his military rest on his shoulders. Even to this day all the bridges across the Dnieper River remain intact. NATO is able to funnel heavy weapons and ammo to Ukrainian troops in the east almost unfettered. Without specific intelligence it is hard to determine whether or not the Russian Army argued for a more focused, less political armed intervention in Ukraine. It does, however, have the feel of a political gamble gone bad. It does have the feel of a cat and mouse game, similar to the approach of intelligence forces that Putin once belonged to, than steel fist of a military campaign. In a war of annihilation, which this is becoming, political considerations get thrown to the way side - especially when your geo-strategic goals have already been met. To do less is to show your sworn enemy that you are weak, as evidenced by the massive escalation in Western military support for Ukraine. Weakness, or the perception of it, may lead to all the wolves closing in for the kill.</p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-6176655039833342832022-04-29T18:10:00.003-06:002022-04-29T18:10:34.453-06:00Ukraine - Master of its own Demise<p> Two months into the invasion of Ukraine a few things have become obvious. The first and foremost thing to surface in the Ukraine conflict is the absolutely shameless abuse of propaganda by the Ukrainian government. Whether it was the defiant slaughter of thirteen Ukrainian Marines on Snake Island, which ended up being the surrender of almost 100 Ukrainian paratroopers and no slaughter, in reality, or the shelling of a train station in Donetsk by a Tocha missile, which Ukraine blamed on Russia, but which was subsequently discovered to have a Ukrainian serial number, the Ukrainian government has been shameless and irresponsible in its rhetoric. Before the war started it similarly provoked the super power on its border - as if it has a death wish. When Ukraine points the finger at those responsible for the war, or at those it accuses of not doing enough for it, there are a thousand fingers pointing back at it.</p><p>Let's face the obvious: Ukraine has been used by our western governments as a tool to, as they now admit, to weaken Russia. This has been on going for over a decade. It is a matter of fact that the West was involved in the overthrow of Ukraine's President in 2014. A president who was duly elected - primarily from the Russian speaking portions of Ukraine in the east and south of the country. It's a matter of record that the overthrow was caused by the Ukrainian President's refusal to follow a path to join the EU. It is a historical truth the the Ukrainian military shelled, bombed, and otherwise attacked separatists when they declared independence from Ukraine as a result of the overthrow of their president - this despite the UN's declaration of the principle to self-determination for people and regions around the world that seek it. The West refused to criticize Ukraine's military assault on its own citizens, and immediately recognized the new head of Ukraine. </p><p>The Ukrainian government signed two accords (Minsk) in an effort to end the civil war in the Donbass. However, it failed to live up to the requirements of the agreements by refusing to grant the Donbass special status as it had agreed to do. It did not live up to the requirements that foreign troops would not be present in the Donbass or Ukraine. The list goes on. In reality, the Ukrainian government said whatever it needed to say to get itself off the hook at the moment, and this unfortunately has become a trait that has damned the country of Ukraine, and threatens to set off a major world conflict.</p><p>In the days leading up to the Russian "special military operation" (in reality an invasion with specific political and territorial goals), Ukraine and the West which backed and trained its military, had a chance to seriously address the concerns of Russia, but instead they brushed Russia off as if it were a third-rate power living in the past. This approach, this view, has been catastrophic for Ukraine and may become catastrophic for the world. It was four years ago, in October of 2018, when Russian President Putin warned the world "Russians will go to heaven as martyrs ... The aggressor (the West) will have to understand that retaliation is inevitable, that it will be destroyed and that we, as victims of aggression, as martyrs, will go to heaven. They will simply die because they won't even have time to repent." Source <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/russians-heaven-event-nuclear-war-putin-153648833.html">here</a> He was referring to the then new hypersonic weapons they had developed, and which today have become a reality on the Ukrainian battle field.</p><p>Despite all of these terrible consequences, Ukraine, and our western governments, have simply sought to further antagonize, and by doing so increased the severity of the conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in particularly, has acted so recklessly with his country's existence that it begs the question: does he want to seek Ukraine as a country taken off the map? In the days before the invasion he refused to agree to live up to Ukraine's signature on the Minsk Agreement. His Western partners, namely France, Germany and the UK, who were all guarantors of the agreement along with Russia, did absolutely nothing to force Ukraine and Zelensky to live up to their agreement. Zelensky not only refused to implement the Minsk Agreement, but went further stating Ukraine was going to join NATO. These are not actions of a person or government seeking to avoid conflict and tragedy for their country and people. These are actions of a minor power recklessly punching over its weight, undoubtably reassured by other governments of support should Russia act.</p><p>It is of course noble to state that a sovereign country can do as it wishes, but everyone understands the reality is different. For example, if Canada were to enter a military alliance with China, and have Chinese military personnel training and arming the Canadian army, does anyone seriously believe the US would simply stand by and say if Canada wants to be in alliance that is their sovereign right and we support it? No, that would never happen. Simply look at the diplomatic roar over tiny Solomon Islands entering a security pact with China as an example. Funny enough, the US intervened in the Freedom Convoy protests in Canada simply because their car manufacturers could not receive parts and had to close a few plants temporarily. The position that Ukraine, or any other country, can do whatever it likes as a sovereign nation has never been true throughout history, and it makes a mockery of the intelligence of those who suggest it can. </p><p>Nevertheless, Zelensky lectured the world that Ukraine was the victim of an unprovoked attack. Not just that, but it was a victim of NATO lacking courage, the EU lacking courage, and pretty much everyone who disagreed with its position was a Russian sympathizer. There was no room for intelligent, level headed people to have a different opinion. Much like Prime Minister Trudeau's public statements that people protesting for freedom in Canada held "unacceptable views". </p><p>The problem with Zelensky, and the Ukrainian government in general, is that it has become like the "boy who called wolf". It has made so many false claims that one simply can not believe what it says anymore. Take for example its constant claims that Russia has suffered massive casualties thus far. Perhaps it has, but Ukraine has never released any of its own casualty numbers. It claims to have defeated Russia and destroyed much of Russia's equipment, yet it is the one screaming for tanks, artillery and anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine had plenty of these arms before the war, so the natural conclusion is Russia has destroyed much of it and they need theirs replaced. Ukraine has condemned Russia in every other day UN Security Council meetings for attacking civilians and civilian buildings, yet it armed its own civilians and its troops took up positions in civilian buildings as matter of course. </p><p>All of this leads to one unmistakable conclusion - the Ukrainian government cannot be trusted. Not that Russia is an angel. Nor is the US or any other Western power, and if you believe they are you are very naive. They all have "interest" that reign well above their principles. Ukraine is no different in that regard. It is not the innocent victim it portrays itself. Its government has been willing to sacrifice its own people unnecessarily. That shouldn't be surprise to anyone that has followed the conflict since 2014. A government that is willing to fire artillery and bomb its own citizens for wanting a different future is not a government that minds wasting the lives and dreams of its population. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> </p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-71384159304976163662022-04-01T10:52:00.001-06:002022-04-01T10:53:48.673-06:00Why Russia is winning the War in Ukraine<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxFPSGdx0BN1hfI358XKbX7VPuvDC7HAfe71ZG788e-VFc5iaIYTiikP59mdyeQ2W8m3igBNjZAlQMcmEkM1OFZJw8-GS9dNqoY3PxZgVoCCwGQeHICrI8mp9yQU7RQsh8sFrVY6zuwWUu8iE5uuXk2cAMjxhG0q9yHITsQVuh9C8njSNis0On_Lg-/s2200/20150123_DonetskTank_528.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1456" data-original-width="2200" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxFPSGdx0BN1hfI358XKbX7VPuvDC7HAfe71ZG788e-VFc5iaIYTiikP59mdyeQ2W8m3igBNjZAlQMcmEkM1OFZJw8-GS9dNqoY3PxZgVoCCwGQeHICrI8mp9yQU7RQsh8sFrVY6zuwWUu8iE5uuXk2cAMjxhG0q9yHITsQVuh9C8njSNis0On_Lg-/w519-h344/20150123_DonetskTank_528.jpg" width="519" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>In order to know whether or not Russia is winning its war in Ukraine one has to figure out what the goal of the war is. Afterall, regardless of casualties and loss of equipment and resources, the primary objective of any conflict is its original mission. The best way to think of Russian strategy in Ukraine is to view it as one of those famous Russian egg dolls that have successively smaller dolls within it. <p></p><p>Russia's stated goal in Ukraine is to de-nazify, de-militarize, and annex territory from Ukraine. The word annex in this case means the formal recognition by Ukraine of Russia's annexation of Crimea, and the recognition of the Donbass as an independent republic - which would presumably vote to join Russia. Those are the stated goals. The next obvious goal, which is not stated, is the annexation of the Kherson region to protect Crimea's water supply and form a land bridge to Crimea. The next much less obvious goal would be the Russian occupation and annexation of all Eastern Ukraine - including Odessa. This would make what's left of Ukraine an impoverished, landlocked no-mans land between Europe and Russia. All of these stated and non-stated goals are either obvious or can be logically deducted from Russia's military movements.</p><p>The smallest, and least visible goal, the smallest of the dolls, is the most important of them all - kicking off the "newest world order". To understand this one must focus on the thought and strategy of Vladimir Putin. Putin is a judo master, and as such the philosophy of Judo rules his strategic thought. The primary principle of Judo is to use the opponents own force or weight to defeat him. Putin's use of this strategy is evident on the domestic and international stages. In this case, Putin has used NATO's (US) strategy to contain Russia (and China), with its push to Russia's borders, as momentum to "Judo throw it" if you will. The encroachment on Russia's traditional buffer zones, being those states on Russia's borders, has given Putin the reasoning needed to convince the Russian people that he must act. Remember the "we have no where to retreat" speech. </p><p>At this point, Putin has grabbed the proverbial collar of the West - being the starting of the Ukrainian war. The US and Europe continued to push Putin with large weapon shipments to Ukraine, and massive sanction packages aimed at destroying the Russian economy. The force of these sanctions was meant to throw Russia to the ground, but instead Putin used that very force against his opponent. He began with steps to stop bank runs in Russia, shut down the Russian stock exchange to avoid a similar run, and essentially planted his feat firmly on the ground. Then, with European countries threatening to ban all Russian exports, including oil and natural gas, Putin completed his throw and threw the US and Europe to the proverbial ground - rubble only payment for natural gas and all other exports from Russia. That was the point of the war in Ukraine - the death of the US hegemony and by necessity the US dollar. </p><p>Previous to the war in Ukraine Russia had made agreements with the Chinese to use yuan and rubbles for internal trade. Since the war, Russia has been making agreements with India, Pakistan, Iran and others to conduct trade in national currencies - not the US dollar. From hereon in the largest markets in the world, China and India, will not need US dollars for trade in natural resources, and that means the US dollar has lost at least half its worth in real terms. Even Saudi Arabia, with a staggering 70% of its oil exported to Asia, is realizing that it must pick a side in this global divide. It has now begun negotiating with China to sell the oil in Yuan - not US dollars. This breaks an agreement it has has since the 1970s with the US to sell its oil in US dollars exclusively. The need for US dollars has propelled the dollar to the most sought after and valuable currency in the world, and that in turn has propelled the US economy. All that is about to change in a very radical way. </p><p>The take away here is that, while on the face of it the war in Ukraine is being described and thought of as a proxy war between Russia and NATO, in reality it is meant to be the catalyst for a bi-polar world - one on the rise (Eurasia) and one on the decline (Atlantia). A massive shift propelled by the elites of the world - in all nations. A deliberate move to consolidate the world's many countries into two camps. One often hears the phrase "divide and conquer". You can properly think of this as the age of "consolidate and conquer". It's the phase before the move to one world government. As US President recently said: "There will be a New World Order, and America must lead it". This is what we are truly witnessing today. Not Russia bad Ukraine good. Not China and India must pick a side. Not any of the rhetoric designed to baffle and indoctrinate the ordinary person. So, if you consider that Putin, and by extension Russia, are playing their roles in the creation of this "New World Order", then you know that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine.</p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-47556455834877815252022-03-16T12:45:00.007-06:002022-03-16T12:47:39.156-06:00Russia's Battle Plan in Ukraine <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsVO69oqt-UsS__d728ExiFedPOIyf3mba1eHvR1upc3bUti7nv75ocG9TUW9_9yzk-f_9TUQGmXTysjnUAnC3MnUNa3f-O6cBFrRwOcTYYYQWRgO5J5berwnnpnhkBOnCrZiFbhLc_syViMGEjnHTKy9PhMZq_nE_oeFA_kGDzyO-iua3IWueAlf3" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1920" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsVO69oqt-UsS__d728ExiFedPOIyf3mba1eHvR1upc3bUti7nv75ocG9TUW9_9yzk-f_9TUQGmXTysjnUAnC3MnUNa3f-O6cBFrRwOcTYYYQWRgO5J5berwnnpnhkBOnCrZiFbhLc_syViMGEjnHTKy9PhMZq_nE_oeFA_kGDzyO-iua3IWueAlf3=w583-h256" width="583" /></a></p><p><br /><br /></p><p>Three weeks ago to the day Russia launched a multi-force, multi-direction, and multi-purpose invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government called it a "Special Military Operation", much like the Ukrainian government called their military crackdown on Donbass separatists an "Anti-Terrorist Operation". One can't help wonder if the Russians weren't having a bit of fun with that one. Bottom line is, as was predicted <a href="https://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-eurasia-war-wizards-chess.html">here</a>, the Russians did invade Ukraine on multi-fronts to: isolate the Ukraine army positioned against Donbass separatist forces, encircle Kiev, and occupy the Russian "L" stretching from Cherniv to Odessa on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. </p><p>The question at the moment is this: what happened to the plan? Any person with any military experience knows the old saying: "a plan only survives until first contact with the enemy". That is clearly the Russian experience in Ukraine. The problems with the Ukrainian campaign began at the top. Russian President Putin was using his military as a tool of politics, and that was and remains his major mistake. Much like the US government's political objectives in the Vietnam war, which in many ways tied the hands of its forces and caused many unnecessary casualties, Putin started this war with clear political objectives in mind. It is clear that these political objectives included: non-use of serious weapons in civilian areas; non-use of strategic bombers for carpet bombing; non-use of naval borne cruise missiles of guns for shelling; the list goes on. Essentially, Putin was trying to present the Ukrainian government with a fait a compli so that sober minds would realize resistance was futile and they would capitulate.</p><p>That was the best case scenario. Instead of conducting an air campaign like the US did in Iraq (for a month and a half), the Russian military moved in after mere hours of missile and air strikes. The result was that Russia did not destroy Ukraine's air defences and air force completely before entering ground forces, and perhaps more importantly did not cripple Ukrainian's will to fight. There may have been geo-political/strategic reasons for this, or there may have been political calculations, but the bottom line is that Russian planes and helicopters were vulnerable, and remain so. That means, necessarily, Russian ground troops suffered unnecessary casualties from Ukrainian artillery and tanks. So the Russian command gave up prudent military doctrine to satisfy the political goal of not alienating eastern Ukrainian civilians for a post conflict order. In other words, it got too cute.</p><p>The Russian Navy has also been conspicuous by its absence in the campaign. It has complete dominance in that area of the Black Sea, yet has only fired six cruise missiles at an air base. You can also throw in the Russian strategic resources like heavy bombers and massive electronic warfare assets which have basically remain unused. All these forces would have made a massive difference in the three weeks of battle thus far. While not using the navy or strategic bombers may be incorporated under the strategy of not alienating the population, or political reasons in other words, the very limited use of electronic warfare is more likely strategic in nature. Russian strategic thought is to keep its capabilities close to its chest until the big war happens, ie: World War III (hopefully that never happens). A good example of this is the recent discovery that Russia has decoy missiles in its barrages of missiles that fool the enemy's anti-missile systems, which was unknown until then. </p><p>The primary difference between an American war and a Russian war today seems to be the Russians are trying to placate a population before they occupy them, while the Americans level the place and face uprisings thereafter (ie: Iraq, Afghanistan; etc). That doesn't mean the Russians won't face the same in any case. Certainly the main stream media, and social media, have portrayed the Russians as leveling Ukraine. However, from a military perspective, this is far from the truth. From a strictly military perspective Russia would be guilty of not using all its strategic and heavy forces to ensure its troops didn't take unnecessary casualties, and objectives wouldn't be impeded. Certainly the US or NATO would never be accused of that.</p><p>The US has a strategy of "battle space dominance". The idea is that its forces must dominate every aspect of the battle space on air, land and sea. That strategy has been woefully lacking in the Russian's Ukraine campaign. Ukrainian tanks, and especially artillery have been relatively unbothered moving around Ukraine. NATO has managed to transfer anti-tank, and anti-air man-held portable missile systems to Ukraine without any issue. The systems have found their way to the individual fronts. Here there are collective failures in intelligence, and forces designed to restrict battle space. That may have been the reason two senior Russian intelligence officials were detained by their government. It may also point to a lack of precision weapons and/or drones that can interdict these supplies en route, or it maybe a case of sacrificing soldiers and tanks on the ground to keep military capabilities hidden from NATO forces. Don't forget the Russians sacrifice in WWII, like one rifle for two men. That dedication to "Mother Russia" is still there. Whatever the case, Russian troops and Russian objectives are paying the price on the ground. Unfortunately for the Russian military, troops morale may well suffer when they realize weapons that could be employed to limit their chances of being killed are not being used.</p><p>The last week of the campaign has changed somewhat. It appears now that Putin's grand gesture to the Ukraine has been replaced with some military imperative. Strategic missiles were used to destroy a Ukrainian base on the Polish border housing foreign volunteers, and more than likely NATO arms. Russian ships fired off a few more cruise missiles near Odessa. The cities of Mariupol and Kharkiv/Kharkov have been facing methodical military bombardment. This is the way of war. Ask the people of Mosul, Bagdad, Tripoli, Benghazi, Aleppo, the list goes on and on. If your military chooses to put its positions in a city, don't be surprised when the city is levelled to defeat you. My own father fought in the city of Ortona, Italy in WWII, and the place was levelled. He was at Monte Casino too, which was a beautiful historical monument that German paratroopers decided to make a defensive position. The US air force bombed it into oblivion - no questions asked. This is the ugly truth of war, no matter how many "Karens" scream about it. The self-righteous, hypocritical posturing of the US and some other countries is frankly upchuck worthy - especially amongst military people who know the truth of war. </p><p> It is now the beginning of the third week of the war in Ukraine, and news is "leaking" out that Russia and Ukraine are close to signing a peace agreement which pretty much includes all the demands Putin put on Ukraine before the war started. That being said, it seems inconceivable that Russia would sacrifice so much for so little. Even if Ukraine agreed to formally cede the Donbass and Crimea to Russia, it still leaves Russia without a land bridge to Crimea, and Russia already effectively controlled both anyway. Therefore, given the Russians already fully occupy the Kherson region we may see a referendum there on Kherson as an independent republic or a part of a Donbass/Kherson republic, or a part of Russia. If Russia is preparing to sign a deal, then an attack on Odessa would be out, Odessa would remain as Ukraine's only sea port. It also seems counterintuitive that Russia would miss the chance to take all of eastern Ukraine, making the Dnipro River the new "Iron Curtain". Afterall, once you have gone all in you may look very weak to leave with nothing of much strategic or even tactical consequence. Such a face to your enemy will likely embolden them to come for your throat. That, after all, kind of defeats Russia's stated objective of deterring NATO aggression against it. </p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-67918089535137118602022-03-01T13:36:00.006-07:002022-03-01T13:57:07.587-07:00The Ukraine War - It's not what you think<p> The world is a stage and we are but mere actors. Never has this saying been more true than today. We are witnessing the making of "heroes" and "villains" in Ukraine and Russia right now. The Ukrainian President has been pumped by western media as some kind of modern day Churchill as he, with no military experience, "personally directs the defence of Kiev" from within the city. A hero, and potentially a martyr all in one. We have the Ukrainian military being hailed for putting up a "heroic" defence against the Russians. And, of course, we have Russian President Putin painted variously as the bad guy, evil guy, insane guy, ... you get the idea. Good guys vs bad guys, black vs white, demonize vs canonize - such is the evil pit that the world has evolved into.</p><p>We see this very painting of people here in Canada as well. Far from the flames of the Ukrainian war. Truckers are heroes. Truckers are terrorists. One Liberal cabinet member just referred to truckers in the Freedom Convoy in Ottawa as, wait for it, "terrorists". We have just come through two years of what can only be described as the worst violation of civil rights in Canadian history - mass vaccination requirements, lockdowns and mandates - all designed to get Canadians used to the suspension of their constitutional rights as some sort of natural right the federal government, and provincial governments can exercise at will. The Canadian government even invoked the Emergency Measures Act, renamed by Mulroney but then known as the War Measures Act, to suppress an act of defiance and civil disobedience via protests on Parliament Hill. Rights you thought were sacred two years ago evaporated in a woke moment. It has been the same throughout most of the world.</p><p>So how does Ukraine fit into this? Well, three words: World Economic Forum. The WEF is a multi-national private organization born in Germany, now with its headquarters in Davos, Switzerland. It's primary purpose, like other German fathers of the same vision (Marx and Engels most recently), is to turn the world into a one government utopia where humans have no rights to property, religion, beliefs other than the WEF's, etc. In the words of the nominal head of the organization, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution". If that sounds a lot like another German phrase, the Third Reich, you can be forgiven. Both have their origins in Germany, both seek world dominance, both sought to conquer/control Europe (ie EU), both sought to conquer Russia/Soviet Union after gaining control of Europe, both believe in genetic manipulation of the human species, you get the idea. They don't call themselves Nazis anymore. The new term they love to use is "Globalists". </p><p>The Globalists aim to conquer states from within, that is to say they mentor and put in place leaders and politicians that they control. (don't believe me? watch the video <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://youtu.be/RxtiD8Z6gBI" target="_blank">here</a></span>. Interestingly, Schwab even refers to Putin as one of his guys. This takes us to the "we are all actors" part. What is really happening in the Russo/Ukraine war, and more importantly, what is the purpose of it.</p><p>The primary point woman from Europe is Ursula Von Der Leyen, a German (again) physician and politician (first woman to serve as Minister of Defence in Germany). Some of her mentors shown below:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhprRP91Lv5XmsZgyTNL9L-9Y1qCphNwgQCwUguAak3V0qU-lAWzHJUKllfynVJGiJdB74VNLZarWM0L8ZQ_gl3gAHSenInj3T7tLEHdtOgu4LTetECT42ilcSpHgJB3MfetmG9eWxdZxKBm8EVUZ9b_ir8jErVGlB98NOs0eWBkVgIOrIbJ8KiXskw=s1920" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1920" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhprRP91Lv5XmsZgyTNL9L-9Y1qCphNwgQCwUguAak3V0qU-lAWzHJUKllfynVJGiJdB74VNLZarWM0L8ZQ_gl3gAHSenInj3T7tLEHdtOgu4LTetECT42ilcSpHgJB3MfetmG9eWxdZxKBm8EVUZ9b_ir8jErVGlB98NOs0eWBkVgIOrIbJ8KiXskw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1aVAsxjCFJUQMaJlT-6P3lW_0gxXP6gTcP_jcsel3vwWu96gNmokMUoW2wINnWmGSGkF4qtepWFxdzLuJ-jLw5jOFFXt2fsqYLXgPX8b7hD3NV80aDaJr3g_PvJfFgQ9mrHwaxpF4TdUmwNTpV0zVEEod3zXAMGya5G4_k_Ph4x1-ZZXPqMyoOl5o=s1360" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="907" data-original-width="1360" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1aVAsxjCFJUQMaJlT-6P3lW_0gxXP6gTcP_jcsel3vwWu96gNmokMUoW2wINnWmGSGkF4qtepWFxdzLuJ-jLw5jOFFXt2fsqYLXgPX8b7hD3NV80aDaJr3g_PvJfFgQ9mrHwaxpF4TdUmwNTpV0zVEEod3zXAMGya5G4_k_Ph4x1-ZZXPqMyoOl5o=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>In case you aren't familiar, the top picture is her with Henry Kissinger, and the lower picture is her with Schwab. Her job in all of this is to direct European states, and people, to prepare them for war against Russia. As you may have noticed from the emergency session to grant Ukraine EU membership, the European Parliament was decked out like some kind of Ukrainian birthday party. The new Chancellor of Germany is newly elected Olaf Scholz - pictured below (with Schwab):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTJqRz45uD9sAquWUytkac0CWnsVVIeLhtBX_vLgENPlwN7l3PNHmmEk7-4KnUyEiOl1vQG40PBz7l6ISnx_3T6TQ8NbQGh_ccpZjU6n3A-8VaoRne01E7GVT-78mKTeQjMvTNIqcTR1tAsM-T3z42DdS7ay1uAm9fKX0jwqi6nZ4yj8atFmgpu9N7=s640" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="640" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTJqRz45uD9sAquWUytkac0CWnsVVIeLhtBX_vLgENPlwN7l3PNHmmEk7-4KnUyEiOl1vQG40PBz7l6ISnx_3T6TQ8NbQGh_ccpZjU6n3A-8VaoRne01E7GVT-78mKTeQjMvTNIqcTR1tAsM-T3z42DdS7ay1uAm9fKX0jwqi6nZ4yj8atFmgpu9N7=w339-h204" width="339" /></a></div><br /><p>For the WEF, and its backers, the most important aspect of their plans is what can loosely be called the "schedule". The schedule is used to determine the length of time politicians stay in office, the bringing up of "young politicians" as Schwab refers to them in the video link above, the stacking of governments to implement its policies, and finally the beginning of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution". That is commonly referred to as Agenda 2030, which means eight years remain. In those eight years they have to destroy our current beliefs in bodily autonomy, freedom of thought and speech, ownership of private property, privacy, and nation states. They list as some of the primary goals of Agenda 2030 as people will own nothing; all commerce will be conducted by drones; a "handful of countries" will dominate all others; the amalgamation of people's physical/digital/economic identities, and others. Here is the link to the WEF's own video on the matter <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?extid=CL-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&v=10154159674886479" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>The war in Ukraine should thus be thought of as the initiating event that forces the world onto the WEF's schedule for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Putin's role, if you will, is to destroy the patsy state of Ukraine in order to occupy it and create a new iron curtain. Likely to follow in very short order are Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. You can view it as the WEF fixing the mistakes of Hitler's invasion of the USSR by having the Russians use up their men killing Ukrainian men - which is after all what bled the German Army white in WW II. Then, because Germany under Merkel (another of the politicians Schwab listed) agreed to tie Germany's energy needs so tightly to Russia, the sanctioning of Russia will "force" Putin to turn the tap off to Europe and create a massive economic shock to the world economy. It will also sour people toward the dependence on fossil fuels for energy. As a result, Russia will be at war with NATO, but not a nuclear war. Instead it is likely to be a war of conventional destruction previously unknown to mankind. Perhaps that is why the WEF includes travel to Mars as one of its goals - Dark Fleet anyone? </p><p>China will join Russia in a war against NATO and its allies. The world will be carved into two blocks Eurasia and Atlantia. China will bury the hatchet with India, and India will join Eurasia. This will be a war of, in a sense, extermination. The Globalists (WEF) aim to reduce the human population of earth to around 500 million people - that's 7 billion deaths required. The Globalists refer to this as "creative destruction". In a sense, their strategy mimics the Russian/Soviet war of 1941-45 - which they referred to as a "war of annihilation". </p><p>The end result of the collapse of the financial system, the war of annihilation, and the collapse of the human value system will create a need to "build back better". This is where the WEF's agenda gets implemented. Make no mistake, nothing less than this can achieve their stated aims. For example, private property rights are guaranteed in the US constitution and have formed the basis for western life since the beginning. That means the US constitution must be destroyed in order to implement the "you will own nothing" aim. How do you destroy the US constitution without invading the US and conquering it? You destroy it from within. That means firstly you denigrate what it means to be American and have rights. Have we seen that happening in the US? How about some examples of many: burning US flags; removing patriotic statutes (like Abraham Lincoln); labelling half the populations as deplorables; suspending rights during Covid; invalidating the US electoral system; politicizing the police and courts; moving to disarm civilian populations; etc. All of this is already happening in the US. </p><p>The war in Ukraine is simply a manifestation of a controlled establishment that fully intends to extinguish the rights, and in many cases the lives, of people all around the world. It is only a first step, and the remaining steps will be much worse than what we are currently seeing. This is by design and with purpose. This may sound like a "conspiracy theory" to you, but don't forget who made the term "conspiracy theory" a term for mocking - the establishment via the media. People lie but the evidence does not. Look about you. Look at your country and see what has happened to your values, rights, and nations over the last three decades. Ask yourself why it was the the most right wing, patriotic people like Reagan, Thatcher, and Mulroney who instigated and implemented free trade agreements between nations, which resulted in the unnecessary transfer of wealth from wealthier countries to less fortunate. The very definition of such a transfer of wealth from the fortunate to the unfortunate is socialism in its purest form. Yes, the world is but a stage and we are mere actors. We don't have to be slaves to it though.</p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-72772350784044587362022-02-22T14:41:00.007-07:002022-02-22T14:55:26.860-07:00Is Canada heading to Revolt?<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBAQZ_515TCB0yW8ui9qXd6VRm6J1Aw32T8E1LU8Ac-ZSHBrAOSUYl5BbcFsh84VgV4pqeUYYbxxn6RpR7-kEKhtIIhy8DTqxGIYR7Avcn_9OqQLwaHRsD1TONOI_i2Q93pOhU9CiRaQ-CYzAZmYCF449nq6_jrjiaOITzwShI87p8LIp6t75a9Q_C=s1200" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBAQZ_515TCB0yW8ui9qXd6VRm6J1Aw32T8E1LU8Ac-ZSHBrAOSUYl5BbcFsh84VgV4pqeUYYbxxn6RpR7-kEKhtIIhy8DTqxGIYR7Avcn_9OqQLwaHRsD1TONOI_i2Q93pOhU9CiRaQ-CYzAZmYCF449nq6_jrjiaOITzwShI87p8LIp6t75a9Q_C=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>The words. How to put into words the sacrilegious assault on freedom and democracy that we witnessed in Ottawa over this past weekend. The one word that comes to mind in the heart and the head is this - betrayal. </p><p>The government, the media, the police, the courts, in other words the Canadian establishment, have shown themselves to be who they really are - the dictatorship of the few. The last four weeks, if not the last two years, have shown it without any doubt. The establishment has asserted itself upon the rights and will of a significant portion of Canada's population - millions of people - and has done so with arrogance that would shame any other monarchy in resent history. </p><p>The tone was set by the prime minister of Canada, Trudeau. He, and his ministers, particularly Freeland, slandered the millions of Canadians who participated and supported the movement to end vaccine mandates in Canada. They are personally responsible for poisoning the waters of democracy in Canada. Trudeau claimed he was the champion of democracy in that he won the last federal election. That is the most empty, and contemptible claim of all. The truth is Trudeau won less popular vote than the Conservatives by a margin of 33.74 to 32.62, but due to the archaic electoral system in Canada Trudeau was awarded 160 seats while the Conservatives received only 119. The same system Trudeau promised to reform after his win in 2016, but conveniently failed to do so. Furthermore, the turn out for the election was only 62.5 % of the eligible population, meaning the Liberals received 5.5 million votes compared to 5.8 million for the Conservatives. So, of a country of 36 million people, Trudeau took power with 5.5 million votes, and claims the ground of moral supremacy. This is the back drop and the the future.</p><p>With this "moral high ground" Trudeau demonized millions of people, created division and hatred in the population, and even in families. He, and his colleges are guilty of inciting hatred among the very people they are sworn to serve. He has poisoned the name of the Liberal Party from one that has historically advocated for minority rights, including the creation of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, to one that is now legitimately and apolitically viewed as an enemy of freedom and individual rights. He has aligned himself and his party with the hysterical "Karens" of the US, and the despotic US left wings' doctrine of domination rather than accommodation. In other words, Trudeau and his ilk, including the state-run media of Canada, have created a massive chasm in this country that may never be heeled. Indeed, it could get much worse. </p><p>Having poisoned the culture of freedom on which Canada was founded, and upon which Canada has lived all these generations, the establishment in Canada is seeking retribution upon those Canadians that dare to make their voices heard. They did so peacefully, even festively, which seemed to invite even further vitriol from the Canadian government. The final act of betrayal, the grotesque abuse of power, was the enacting of the Emergency Measures Act making protesting illegal in Canada. The police, RCMP and provincial/local police forces, showed to Canada and the world that they are not much more than goons for the state. The footage of their actions at the protests showed a seeming delight in beating and intimidating peaceful protesters. The disgraceful act of riding massive police horses through peaceful, and completely vulnerable protesters was an act of such cowardice and brutality that the RCMP name is now in the mud with other such forces in Latin America. The removal of peaceful veterans from the National War Memorial was a disgrace without equal, and an act that will destroy the relationships previously enjoyed by the veteran and police communities.</p><p>What we are left with is a country deeply, and I mean deeply divided. Afterall, when people have been assaulted over a peaceful expression of protest what is left to them? That remains the question now. The government and courts have chosen to make examples of people like Tamara Lich by leaving her in prison without bail until trial, and seizing her accounts - the very same actions they condemn Russia for in its treatment of protest organizer Alexei Navalny. Yes, that is where we are in Canada on this day. The seizing of people's bank accounts for the charge of, wait for it, mischief, is beyond anything that can be reasoned. Yet, the judge who denied Lich bail railed on about her offence of inconveniencing Ottawa citizens, and her prospects of long jail term. Such is the massive abuse of power currently being committed in Canada.</p><p>All of this begs the question: where do Canadians go from here? Hence the title of this article. Are we heading to a real rebellion in Canada? Nobody has a crystal ball, and as such nobody really knows the unintended (we presume) consequences of coldly stamping out the flames of freedom in Canada. Will the population cower at the sight of people being demonized, jailed, fined, and financially ruined for protesting for their freedom? Certainly, given Canadians' long history of self-destructing passiveness, a population cowering in the corner is definitely a possibility. Another possibility is massive political fault. Support or condemnation of the protests has loosely followed political lines - with some exceptions. It resulted in the Western caucus of the Conservative party throwing a luke warm O'Toole from the leadership of the party. Today stories are surfacing in state-controlled media of the "drafting" of Jean Charest as a new leader for the Conservatives. The signal there is the establishment want to retake control of the Conservative Party, and the very likely result of that is the loss of the entire western portion of the party - perhaps to the People's Party of Canada. Then there remains the NDP, who have suffered a massive 10% drop in their polling numbers, and recently lost a provincial seat in Saskatchewan as a result of their consummate ties to the Liberals. Here again we can expect major political costs for the BC dominated federal party. </p><p>Another course that could manifest itself in Canada is an open rebellion against the establishment in Canada. How that might look is debatable. It really is going to depend on the level of alienation and anger towards the establishment that comes from this gross abuse of power. It could result in further blockades. It could result in mass protests by foot that have been witnessed in almost every Canadian city in the last three weeks. We simply don't know how Canadians will chooses to express their outrage. While the term Canadians in this post refers to those who oppose the trampling of their personal freedoms, there does remain an approximately equal group that cheers on the establishment's crack down. Perhaps this is one of the saddest parts of this entirely disgraceful time, and that is the willingness of people to walk over the rights of others because they believe they have the moral high ground and that entitles them to do so. It is a poison that is now flowing through the veins of many Canadians, and a real tragedy. For a people who inherited so much, to a people who may no longer deserve the free country they once thought they enjoyed.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-6688810858611685332022-02-08T15:11:00.002-07:002022-02-08T15:14:50.898-07:00In Support of Truckers<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj31tCzxFZ65ktTtktorSgLNCtG_FwF-rCKHHApqpfEk8GyDuD0uE_RJqLwuAsaeg-5ClHq7Gmj6T2uTEBvsxMH8hPIaQhBcAdcFrxQjQpPMmTKGq72nxsi_d69CWbyD3wX0ohlUqYEWRl_WdIwMKKIr6PB-Lz45ls249xO4U2ptxdO07GRtuYr_c7V=s768" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="768" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj31tCzxFZ65ktTtktorSgLNCtG_FwF-rCKHHApqpfEk8GyDuD0uE_RJqLwuAsaeg-5ClHq7Gmj6T2uTEBvsxMH8hPIaQhBcAdcFrxQjQpPMmTKGq72nxsi_d69CWbyD3wX0ohlUqYEWRl_WdIwMKKIr6PB-Lz45ls249xO4U2ptxdO07GRtuYr_c7V=w533-h309" width="533" /></a></div><br /><p> Anyone, at any time, who has taken a stand against our governments in Canada lately has found themselves vilified by those very same institutions which purport to defend their individual rights and freedoms. In this way our truckers and their supporters are no different than those that have come before them. Unlike those that have come before them, the Freedom Convoy 2022 has inspired millions of Canadians, and people around the world, by their collective dogged stand. For that they win a special place in history.</p><p>Throughout the world governments have been casting aside individual freedoms in the name of collective security (health this time) as if they were acceptable losses for the greater good. The governments of the world have walked over their citizens with impunity, and purpose. Now they have met the resistance to those actions. For every action their is a reaction, and in Canada and other countries in the world that means populist rebellion against those that deem themselves able to create two classes of citizens - those that submit and those that do not. It has played out very deliberately and very obviously over the last two years - step by step by step.</p><p>Many of the media types are asking how Canada became so divided, now on a parallel with the US, when they quote a vaccination rate of 85% of Canadians. The answer is quite simple: most of those people did not want to vaccinated but felt they had no choice. That bread resentment, and resentment gave birth to anger, and when anger grew up it became rebellion - as is today. When mandates were put in place just barely half the population was vaccinated, despite being urged to by the Premiers and Trudeau. When the urging didn't produce enough results they created timelines for people to get vaccinated or they couldn't get a vax passport to participate in society, including travel, which is a constitutionally protected right in this country. Essentially they imprisoned the Canadian people with one alternative to get out of jail. When they were done with that, they set out to demonize, shame and degrade those that still refused to be vaccinated - as if they had the right to do so.</p><p>It shouldn't be a surprise that a slim majority of Canadians want the mandates removed, because that same group of people either didn't want it or didn't get it in the first place. Now they are fed up with the ultimatums, the demonizing, the dividing. There is also a significant percentage of the population that agrees that individual rights are nothing in the face of collective rights, and that those who did not submit should somehow be excluded from living a normal life in their own country. Those same people forget that the Charter of Rights and Freedoms was created to protect individual rights and freedoms - not collective rights and freedoms. For example, it protects homosexual people from discrimination. Following the current logic, and given that AIDS was initially a disease affecting the gay population, gay men would be forced into isolation and be unable to interact with normal society. That did not happen, nor was it even suggested to happen, yet those that are willing to chance Covid rather than a vaccine are not so lucky. The examples could go on and on. </p><p>One of my favorite examples is former Prime Minister Mulroney. When he was Prime Minister the War Measures Act was struck from Canadian law to stop another atrocity like the placing of Japanese-Canadians in prison camps during the Second World War. Most of us thought it was more aimed at his Quebec base given the use by then Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau of the Act to send troops into Quebec. Whatever the case, Mulroney scrapped the act to protect a group of citizens from being targeted by the state with discrimination. Fast forward to today, and where does Mulroney stand? Well, this was part of a news report released on October 31, 2021 regarding then leader O'Toole's failure in the election:</p><p><span> <span> "They were doing very well...for the first couple of weeks, and then they lost momentum simply <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>because... Mr. Trudeau quite brilliantly poked holes in the Conservative positions on exactly what <span> </span><span> </span>you and I are talking about: Vaccines, and health care and the problems that were going on in <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>Alberta at the time."</span> </span><br /></p><p>This is the master of division whose policies of demonizing others created the Reform Party and almost saw the West succeed from Canada. That is why he used the term "brilliantly" for stoking the fires of division over vaccines. To them our rights and freedoms are merely some sort of talking point when seeking favour, but not to be taken seriously. This is the truth, and you can see it being played out every day in the media and by the political "elite" who think the ends justify the means. </p><p>Congratulations elite. You have really done it this time. A very dedicated, very patriotic, very principled core of Canadians have stood up in defiance of your arbitrary and unconstitutional actions. The truckers of Canada, and now the world, have taken it upon themselves to lead the defence of freedom, but make no mistake, they are not alone. When you attack them you attack us. When you demonize them you demonize us. When you mock them you mock us. They are not alone. They were never alone. You tried to tae their fuel so they would freeze or leave. That did not work. Now the word is you want to tare children away from their parents who participate in the protest. Have you no shame? Have you no comprehension that what you do to them you do to us? </p><p>To all of you that have dug in your heels at the borders and in Ottawa, thank-you for taking the fight for freedom to those that so willingly seek to deny it to us. Thank-you for your courage of conviction, which they can not meet because they have no courage. Thank-you for remaining calm in the face of provocation after provocation. As was the case with Ghandi, who peacefully brought down British rule over India, and more importantly the example of Christ who told us to turn the other cheek, your example of peaceful protest extinguishes their flames of hate. Finally, when you are sitting in your cab, or gathering on the frozen streets of Ottawa or on the borders, remember we are with you and we support you with our hearts and souls. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-17401882542623216282022-02-03T19:39:00.005-07:002022-02-03T19:39:43.392-07:00Canada's Popular Revolt<p> </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjygHUPyuyt4bxXHpEzuz85JwRZVGFxNEnFJfxv57an0EZA2LVeXIsqJTpYYRdJy8-ICUtYTt7V0LA-xy4od9gnu3uNe61PC9LJCoiEsQES9Huy8Bpn1D0RLpdzaCYrQX9D_K7VleofpjAjbr8iO7THkyOPy3DYvofolTZzUi55YkKWhpU2cNOxcd1l=s474" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="474" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjygHUPyuyt4bxXHpEzuz85JwRZVGFxNEnFJfxv57an0EZA2LVeXIsqJTpYYRdJy8-ICUtYTt7V0LA-xy4od9gnu3uNe61PC9LJCoiEsQES9Huy8Bpn1D0RLpdzaCYrQX9D_K7VleofpjAjbr8iO7THkyOPy3DYvofolTZzUi55YkKWhpU2cNOxcd1l=w491-h317" width="491" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>It is not everyday that a writer gets to contemplate a momentous event in his own country. In Canada, the land of the laid back, that is even more true. BUT, times have changed.</p><p>The Freedom Convoy 2022, which started as one man's vision to fight back against vaccine mandates for truckers to cross into the US has blossomed into an all out revolution of ideals. Two years of suffocating "lockdowns" (normally used in the sense of locking rowdy prisoners in their cells, but used against the entire population), "mandated" (read "forced") vaccinations, and demonization have led to a popular uprising in Canada. It is not an understatement to say that: a popular uprising. </p><p>The tens of thousands of people who line the overpasses and roads of the country as the convoy made its way to Ottawa were the real sign of this movement. They braved, in many cases, -30 Celsius or worse temperatures for hours to show their support, and encouragement for what the truckers and their supporters were doing. As did the people who stood shoulder to shoulder last weekend - again to support the convoy's message that mandates are unconstitutional, violate Canadian's civil rights, and are destroying their quality of life. Mothers, fathers, children, in fact vastly more younger families than any other demographic, waved their flags in defiance of the actions of provincial and especially federal governments, and of course its chief cheerleader Mr. Trudeau.</p><p>Like Mary Antoinette of French infamy who arrogantly stated "Let them eat cake", Trudeau referred to these patriots, and all those young families lining the nation's highways, as a "fringe minority espousing unacceptable views". The convoy, and the majority of Canadian supporters, who were already angry at their freedoms being discarded like unnecessary trash, now were seeing red - Antoinette-style. Trudeau quickly left the capital just before the convoy arrived, and was moved to a "safe place" (likely somewhere out of truck horn distance from Ottawa). </p><p>His government, and to their extreme discredit the national media, attempted to demonize the protesters as everything from nazi or KKK supporters, to a violent mob spitting at old people and stealing food from the homeless shelters. The federal Liberal government has done everything in its power to label these Canadians, who represent average Canadians completely, as something akin to a "mob of the vile". Or as one establishment lady once said to me: "the great unwashed". It is enough to turn your stomach thinking that people look at others in this way, and believe it to their core. With Trudeau hiding, Freelend, the grand daughter of a nazi sympathizer and publisher in Ukraine during World War 2, has been doing a lot of spinning herself in the Parliament of Canada. Again, portraying these Canadians as viler and unworthy. </p><p>As a Canadian, a veteran, the son of a WW 2 veteran, and a person that has defended freedom in Canada at all times, I do not recognize my country right now. I see the memory of my country in this movement to retake our constitutional rights back from those who so duplicitously absconded with them. A veteran who lost his way, who lost sight of what he defended as an officer in the air force, the Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition, has fallen - removed by the western Canadian caucus of his own party for failing to defend the Charter of Rights and Freedoms strongly enough in support of the convoy. It seems that western Canada is the true bastion of freedom in Canada. The convoy started here. The voices against mandates were the strongest here. The remembrance of Canada as a free nation are most sacred here. The rest of Canada has been inspired by the West that it is only that freedom that makes us who we are, and without it we are nothing. I think that is fair to say.</p><p>While nobody aspires to violence in this uprising, one deliberate act of suppression of the protesters by the use of force could send it off the charts. This is not an exaggeration, but a warning of sorts. Trudeau and his like have been tossing the idea of a military action to end the demonstration - yet the demonstrations are happening all over the second largest country in the world. A country that is solely dependent on three or four primary crossing points into the US for its economy - one of which was shut down by trucks for several days - and may be again. The ugly truth is that our very own Prime Minister considers his own country the "first post-national country" - in other words Canada has outlived its usefulness. It is only in a country as laid back as Canada that he could get away with a statement like that. In other countries that would be legitimately considered a treacherous statement - high treason. </p><p>This weekend there will be massive demonstrations across major cities throughout Canada. In Alberta today I witnessed kilometers long convoys of large farm machinery, adorned with new Canadian flags, and hand made signs calling for a return to freedom - an end to mandates. That was Thursday. The real event doesn't start until Saturday. Word is that massive convoys are converging on Quebec City, Toronto, and other major Canadian cities. </p><p>What will be the result of all this? It is hard to say. I suppose it depends on how it ends. What is clear is that either the constitutional rights of Canadians will be returned or their will likely not be a Canada as we know it now. The liberals (small L and big L) have gone too far this time. They have arrogantly told the people of Canada to "eat cake". The only question is whether Canadians are cake eaters or the descendants of those that stormed Vimy Ridge with the resolute bravery that fills the heart of a free man and woman. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-55059361279327006852022-01-17T16:07:00.003-07:002022-01-17T16:07:57.488-07:00The Eurasia War - Wizard's Chess<p> "We have nowhere left to retreat" - Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. These words were meant for the Russian people, and not as a plea to the rest of the world. Putin is invoking the patriotic spirit of Russians, and framing the coming war as an act of self-defence (which it might be) so that he has those same people behind him for the big move. The move he has dreamed of since he witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union. This is not just about Donetsk or Lugansk Republics, or even Ukraine. This is about recreating the Russia of old. </p><p>Putin has named several factors as strategic imperatives for Russia. A key one is having NATO nations on his borders. He points to Ukraine as a possible NATO member, but there are three countries on his eastern flank, within hours of Moscow, that are NATO members already: Estonia (population 1.3 million); Latvia (population 1.9 million); and Lithuania (population 2.7 million). Collectively known as the Baltic States, they give NATO a staging ground in behind Russia's western border, and are therefore problematic for Moscow. Those countries have, respectively, the following NATO troops stationed in them: 800; 1200; and 1200. Currently they represent an irritant at most, but their potential to become much more for NATO is the danger for Russia.</p><p>Most analysts are looking at Russia's position as solely focused on Ukraine, but this would be a foolish miscalculation. Firstly, Russia needs to send a very strong message to countries like Finland, Sweden, Georgia and others that it is prepared to destroy countries that imperil its strategic stability. A minor shuffle into eastern Ukraine would have no such affect, and might in fact do the opposite. Russia knows, like anyone knows, that if there is going to be a big cost then you might as well go for the gusto. The "gusto" in this case is not just eastern Ukraine, not just Ukraine, but the Baltic states and likely Moldova - or at least parts of it. The following map shows that such a move gives Russia the smallest western border to defend amongst all the options. (blue line)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnV0yvJWCZbDnP8oOl780HtbWevLeZ0_ot3Di9sWRvUqndSsnmZFELEDA3uoSUdbn-Ofrp1dt5DdgBpUin90Gr06q-s6zR8uX2K8ThaO58oehoEBrKkPmkRDi_0e3Jq8bXXMnTpsG3sb_R9Ah49kCKLFoTjmTTmpvR2mDd9WY1FmUAOHy4tmz12Y7E=s4787" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4787" data-original-width="4562" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnV0yvJWCZbDnP8oOl780HtbWevLeZ0_ot3Di9sWRvUqndSsnmZFELEDA3uoSUdbn-Ofrp1dt5DdgBpUin90Gr06q-s6zR8uX2K8ThaO58oehoEBrKkPmkRDi_0e3Jq8bXXMnTpsG3sb_R9Ah49kCKLFoTjmTTmpvR2mDd9WY1FmUAOHy4tmz12Y7E=w474-h375" width="474" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Essentially the new western border of Russia will extend from Kaliningrad in the north to the Pro-Russian Transnistria in the south. It will reduce the number of countries accessing the Black Sea to Russia, Turkey, Romania and Hungary. Romania and Hungary are NATO countries, but now they will have Russian divisions stationed at their border, and they do remember when they were occupied, so their inclination to poke the bear will likely be zero. That leaves Turkey, also a NATO member, but a member whose western based economy is in freefall and whose currency is devaluating on a daily basis - leaving it vulnerable to China and Russia. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Russia has also been moving large forces from the far east, near China, to their western border. Those troops have not yet arrived. This indicates that Russia intends on taking very serious military action, decisive military action, and it also indicates Russia is very comfortable leaving China with a less guarded border. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">That brings us to Eurasia. Russia and China have been planning a separate economic system from the West for decades. They have been stockpiling gold as their system will be a gold-backed trade/currency system. They have signed strategic economic and arms agreements. They are in a sense creating anew world order that intends to completely sideline the West economically, and if necessary militarily. The United States has fed this ambition by sanctioning Russia to the point where Russia, and importantly its citizens, have gotten used to being apart from Western goods and services. It is, therefore, almost amusing that the United States is threating Russia with expulsion from the SWIFT economic settlement system. Intentionally, or unintentionally, the US is playing right into Russia hands, and therefore China's. The West's reaction to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Moldova will be the moment both China and Russia have been waiting for to initiate their Eurasian project, and they can say they had no choice, because the US threw them out of SWIFT. Things to come.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In the mean time look for a one fell swoop Russian assault, due to an Ukrainian assault in the Donbass, likely during the Beijing Olympics. Ukraine has been banging the pot internationally that Russia has 100,000 troops near its border, but what Ukraine has been reticent to say is that half the Ukrainian military is now on the the borders of the Donbass region. The danger for Ukraine is that half its army is in very real danger of being enveloped by Russian forces almost as soon as hostilities start. The following map shows the general area that one half of Ukraine's troops are concentrated in (blue circle), and the likely approaches of Russian, and possibly Belorussian troops. It's quite easy to see how quickly they will be isolated, or as the Russians like to call it: "a caldron". A second flanking will be to isolate Kiev from the West and place the entire country in a free fall within days of an invasion. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5Tje1sw6ovWcoN4yZOYDHhs4sDDzikdk5pGwrKpPGpvnDhg1LKyN6DXiFEbFbx76DEp48tsHklIGcYHpIuJLHTbUNfalXBQrKFB5rAqlA2_c-76LwJ_qzKGdLCCfcxCEtfN_T9-G5dJKlbweU1hdr763bnH_xGMW-GqMxcG_w9BuB3Rumr_LzqRQM=s668" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="668" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5Tje1sw6ovWcoN4yZOYDHhs4sDDzikdk5pGwrKpPGpvnDhg1LKyN6DXiFEbFbx76DEp48tsHklIGcYHpIuJLHTbUNfalXBQrKFB5rAqlA2_c-76LwJ_qzKGdLCCfcxCEtfN_T9-G5dJKlbweU1hdr763bnH_xGMW-GqMxcG_w9BuB3Rumr_LzqRQM=w579-h331" width="579" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div> It should not be forgotten that Russia stated, just months ago, that a Ukrainian military intervention in the Donbass would be the end of Ukraine as a state.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We should find out if this is the big Eurasian move or not within the next month or so, but all signs point to it. Keep in mind that both China, Russia, and even North Korea are ahead of the West in developing strategically decisive hyper-sonic missiles. Russia and China have also now had the time to modernize their militaries. In a sense they are ready to go, and their hypersonic advantage may be short lived. It will be in that calculus that the fate of the world as we know it will rest. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><br /><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-86254763516818648942021-12-18T12:25:00.001-07:002021-12-18T12:25:16.640-07:00War in Ukraine 2.0<p> War is coming back to Ukraine, and potentially surrounding countries as well. Back in 2014, when it was quite obvious the Western powers initiated a civil war in Ukraine, during the Olympics, to topple a President who backed off joining the EU, Russia responded by seizing Crimea and aiding separatist forces in the Lugansk and Donetsk republics in Ukraine. It was a tit - for - tat power grab by the Russians, but key to this was that it was a response to the initiation by the Americans of an "in your face" alteration to the balance of power in the region. </p><p>The Russians claim that, in 1991, when they dismantled the Soviet Union, the United States had given their word that NATO would not expand eastward. Whether that is true or not, and the Russians never got in writing for whatever reason, the truth is that over the next thirty years NATO has expanded eastward to the point that NATO forces are right on the border of Russia itself. Historically Russia has never allowed an enemy to be on its borders without going to war over it. Now Russia finds itself having three small Baltic States as NATO members, and possible jumping off points for an invasion of Russia, or at the very least bases for offensive weapons systems. The distance from the southern border of Latvia to Moscow is just under 600 kilometers, and from Estonia a mere 140 kilometers to Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg. It's an intolerable strategic situation for any world power - the Americans would be no different (Cuba crisis).</p><p>Apart from its northwestern flank, Russia has a buffer state, which is in talks to become a part of Russia, which somewhat insulates its central flank. Even there, Ukraine-like movements had been attempting to overthrow the Belorussian President with similar motivations and alliances. In fact, it would likely have been successful if Russia had not learned from the Ukrainian lesson, and this time immediately intervened overtly and covertly to stop it. The southern flank, which has been the most pressing, is the most potentially explosive of all. </p><p>The Ukrainian government has taken what can best be described as a "bull in the china shop" strategy in dealing with Russia. Despite being warned by Russia that any Ukrainian attempt to retake Donetsk and Lugansk Republics by force would see the end of Ukraine as a national entity, and despite knowing that Russian missiles and electronic warfare would destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure in less than an hour, the Ukrainian government continues to pursue a policy of bluff and hysteria. The goal of the Ukrainian government is to trap the Western powers in a war with Russia, much like the approach taken by Winston Churchill to involve the Americans in World War Two. To this point in time the Americans are using Ukraine as a stick to beat the Russians with, but that is all. As US President Biden said: "no American troops to Ukraine" in case of war. </p><p>From Russia's perspective, all things centre around Crimea - the unsinkable aircraft carrier that protects their southern flank with Europe. While the Russians have built a massive bridge from the mainland to Crimea, an exposed position if there ever was one, they have struggled to supply it with the most important commodity of all - water. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian government built a dam over the only water supply route to Crimea, which could be considered a crime against humanity as it primarily targeted the civilian population there. As a result, the massive drainage conduit to Crimea has gone dry, and become overgrown with all types of vegetation. The picture below shows the dam and the clogging of the drainage conduit.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgkPEE7FhFwnKp6henqNPkj8GYqn9_k_q5XdS-brpZwc719hlTvhCMELjtK8aaiIaINh1BjiTiK4CMzFXzbnY3GJbredRIRD8ScyDTFYTQHlRRF0ZD5_S23x8nryJy0dAHtidu8t6ad4ehUlseHiNoqhamFdPixnWVypZztpjvAAZsb7-Y9GWbMveV0=s1023" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="575" data-original-width="1023" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgkPEE7FhFwnKp6henqNPkj8GYqn9_k_q5XdS-brpZwc719hlTvhCMELjtK8aaiIaINh1BjiTiK4CMzFXzbnY3GJbredRIRD8ScyDTFYTQHlRRF0ZD5_S23x8nryJy0dAHtidu8t6ad4ehUlseHiNoqhamFdPixnWVypZztpjvAAZsb7-Y9GWbMveV0=w575-h323" width="575" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p>Sooner or later, and it now appears sooner than later, Russia will have to act militarily to secure this water supply to Crimea. It cannot have a core strategic interest so exposed. From its perspective there can be no choice. </p><p>Ukraine meanwhile, having had years to rebuild its military, has amassed half of its military, compromising all its battle ready units on the battle lines around Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The obvious message Ukrainian message is a final battle for the Republics is coming. Many media outlets have been floating dates for such an outbreak in hostilities to happen as late January or February of 2022. Western media outlets have suggested that is the time frame Russia will invade Ukraine, but it could just as easily be the dates Ukraine intends to send its military in, which would cause a Russian reaction. The irony of the dates put forward shut not be lost on anyone. The winter Olympics in China begin in February of 2022. The revolution in Ukraine began during the winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. The timing is likely not a coincidence. The West has refused to send any diplomatic members to the games in China, and an invasion by Ukraine, and the response by Russia allows the West to ruin China's games and place the blame on a Russia to a distracted public.</p><p>Against this backdrop we have serious moves happening in Eurasia. Russian President Putin was just in India, arm in arm with its President who declared that India had no closer friend than Russia. Just days later the Chief of Staff of the Indian military died when his helicopter crashed in India. Russia and China also just concluded a major defence alliance. Now Russia has sent a "proposal" to NATO which would roll back strategic advantages for NATO in former Warsaw Pact members countries, including the stationing of missiles and troops therein, and ban others from joining NATO. Apparently the proposal is signed by the Russian side with blank spots for NATO to sign. In other words, it's not a proposal, but rather an ultimatum. The question remains: what are the consequences of not agreeing to the Russian ultimatum. </p><p>They could be something as simple as a demonstration of Russia's military power, like knocking Ukraine out of existence in short order. It could also be something much bigger. It could be that Russia's hypersonic missile systems are sufficient to attack western interests and at this point the West is unable to respond to that. Most estimates put American development of hypersonic missiles well behind both the Russians and the Chinese. As the word hypersonic implies, there is no time to defend. For Russia to be making the ultimatum to NATO that it has, it must have the ability to strike with impunity. That could include all of NATO's GPS satellites, without which NATO would be finished. It could include many things. It must also have the backing of China, who literally covers Russia's rear. It must also have at least the neutrality of India. Given Russia has made the move, it's a safe bet that all those factors have been satisfied.</p><p>The only thing left to do is wait. Will Ukraine be the willing sacrifice to start a new cold or hot war? Will Russia, China and others, having been sanctioned by the West, start their new gold based system of commerce - abandoning or being thrown out of the SWIFT system for international payments? Will China have the excuse it needs to take back Taiwan? The game of chicken is about to come to its logical end, and we can but watch. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> </p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-45445475650092124352021-12-06T21:42:00.001-07:002021-12-06T21:42:12.041-07:00How to Fix the Edmonton Oilers<p> Okay, so the topic of hockey is not the norm for this blog - I get it. There will be a number of blogs coming very shortly on the usual political issues, but after watching my favorite team foe the last, few, painful months, something needs to said.</p><p>It's not that the Edmonton Oilers are a team without talent. The Oilers have talent. They even have an excellent backup defence corps that are doing the job wonderfully. That is especially comforting given the Oiler's regular defence corps has been worse than the backups. Take Barrie for example. He should be the reincarnation of Paul Coffey with his speed and offensive capabilities, but since signing his big contract he has looked like a deer in the headlights on the ice. His play in his own end has been, well, bordering on embarrassing. I had great hopes for Duncan Keith as well, but he has played panicky, "please don't hit me " hockey", and it's obvious. Sad really. There is a real short term and long term problem here for the Oilers, but defence was not exactly the strong suit of the Oilers of old, when they won all those cups. </p><p>The Oilers were, at the beginning of the season, worried about their goaltending. Smith was good in 2020, but was it a fluke? Koskinen was atrocious in 2020, and it could only get worse. Skinner was an up and coming prospect with no NHL experience - how would he fair? Turns out that Smith was injured a few games into the season, and Koskinen took over - much to the horror of Oiler fans. Yet, Koskinen played most of the games since, and has played well in relief. Then there is the rookie Skinner. He has played well at home, where he is confident before the home town fans, and average at best on the road. Yet, goaltending isn't the Oilers' problem either. </p><p>The Oilers problem is their offence. There are two main problems with the Oilers' offence:</p><p>1.<span> The offensive players are not being utilized intelligently; and</span></p><p><span>2.<span> The players are not producing intelligent energy.</span></span></p><p><span><span>Perhaps the two are related. Or perhaps the proper use of the players is exasperating ego issues below the surface. The bottom line is that the Oilers' coach is not putting his lines together properly. He is trying desperately, juggling them like balls in several games, desperately seeking energy, momentum, and cohesion. Yet there is none. The answer is not as much what Edmonton's lines have, but what they don't. For example, the use of McDavid, without Nugent-Hopkins on the same line means all any team has to do is shut down McDavid and there are no other playmakers to take his place. This is what has been happening. McDavid ends up trying to do it all himself, fails, and then loses it. In other words, there is no playmaker with McDavid to free him up as either a shooter or a play maker. That means Edmonton's offence becomes painfully predictable. McDavid needs to be teamed with a playmaker, and that person is Nugent Hopkins. </span></span></p><p><span><span>Similarly, Nugent-Hopkins is being wasted as a playmaker on a line of power forwards or grunts. He is an artist with the puck, but his line mates aren't that fancy or finishing. As a result, over 50% of his points have come on the powerplay, but his contribution at full strength has been emasculated. The same goes for Draisaitl. He is a finisher more than he is a playmaker. He can pass, but not as well as either Nugent-Hopkins or McDavid. The three of them on one line means teams cannot predictably isolate one man to take down the whole team. It means flexibility and the option for surprise. It makes sense.</span></span></p><p><span><span>The second line needs to be centred Hyman. Hyman is captain material in his own right. His spirit, talent and commitment is evident throughout the game. He is a leader. If he can't be the leader of the team, well, then he needs to the leader of his own line. A power forward, gut crashing, net smashing, line to throw a whole new look at the opponents every other shift. On either side of him put Scevior and Puljujary (the Happy Warrior). This is line full of absolute drive, and loving it. This is a line that can score and destroy, and do so shift after shift if they wish. This is a line of spirit which they can share amongst themselves. They can show the other lines what commitment is.</span></span></p><p><span><span>The third line needs to centred around young McLeod. He is a star rising, of that there should be no question, but he needs time to find all that he is. His own line, further down the rotation, gives him that confidence of place, and ability to improve without the main spot light that can shatter confidence. He can move and he can score. On either side of him place Yamamoto and Foegele. This is a line built on skill and speed competing against other's third lines not so endowed. Foegele might be a power forward, but he has excellent speed, determination and can score. Yamamoto has speed, and can score, but he should be trade bait as his size makes him an easy smear on the boards. He fights through, but it is clear that he is too small to be a difference. When he goes Turris could take his place - even before he goes. Turris has played inspired hockey this year, yet he finds himself scratched quite often. This isn't fair. He has tremendous speed and can score. He has good drive and desire. He should be playing every night on this line. </span></span></p><p><span><span>The fourth line should be centered on Ryan. He is a wily veteran, and good on the face off. He is also a relentless fore checker, and determined fighter in the corners. Benson and Kassian should be his wingers. If the fourth line is a checking line, then these three can get it done. Both Kassian and Benson can score, but they can also check harshly, especially Kassian - if he wants to. </span></span></p><p><span><span>That's the four lines. They need to each be given a name, aka "the French connection" or whatever like it, and they must stay together to develop their esprit de corps. Swapping players around like proverbial widgets kills all these things that are essential to developing a "TEAM", which they currently are not. Their record is only impressive if you have not witnessed each and every game. Their special teams, ie line one above, have won them almost every game. They have started each game as if they just left their stock brokers office, and the last thing on their mind is hockey. This team needs serious discipline, but before that can happen intelligent effort is required by the coach. Change the lines, then enforce the discipline of the team vision. Don't play down to your competition, but make them rise to you level - every night. This team has the talent, if it can get out of the way of its egos and entitlements. </span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><a href="https://www.nhl.com/player/jesse-puljujarvi-8479344" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; box-sizing: inherit; color: #091f40; cursor: pointer; font-family: Sintony, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;">Puljujarvi</a></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><a href="https://www.nhl.com/player/leon-draisaitl-8477934" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; box-sizing: inherit; color: #091f40; cursor: pointer; font-family: Sintony, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;">Draisaitl</a><a href="https://www.nhl.com/player/colton-sceviour-8474098" style="background-color: #f2f2f2; box-sizing: inherit; color: #091f40; cursor: pointer; font-family: Sintony, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;">Sceviour</a></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span><br /></span></span></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-61179273180143437782021-09-22T15:39:00.001-06:002021-09-22T15:39:17.728-06:00Don't Fire Erin O'Toole<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmWx4MN5YRyQzyiLxZuWoQvRIqGSqAsL9zlBrsTPVganqRa1n1copvjLByqLQcAAjJYJ2yctFYS49jwsaQecQfSfpHRJk13spVnaG1c3ft9REuSuH8pecSNYQ2630h7f_qMxlq5AVMRmI/s960/image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="960" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmWx4MN5YRyQzyiLxZuWoQvRIqGSqAsL9zlBrsTPVganqRa1n1copvjLByqLQcAAjJYJ2yctFYS49jwsaQecQfSfpHRJk13spVnaG1c3ft9REuSuH8pecSNYQ2630h7f_qMxlq5AVMRmI/w514-h311/image.jpg" width="514" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Dear Conservative Party, please don't fire Erin O'Toole as your leader. </p><p>Truth is, the election did not go as well as possible for the Conservatives, but it didn't go well for the Liberals, NDP or Greens. About the only party it went well for was People's Party of Canada - albeit with no seats to show given our outdated first past the post system of electing governments. That's the hard core truth. It was more of a statement to the old guard, the back room boys, the establishment. The message went something like this: "we no longer trust any of you.</p><p>If the Conservative Party wants to fire some folks, the very first person that should be fired is the one who told O'Toole to constantly hold his hands in a prayer position during the English language debate. Each time O'Toole brought his hands in this position it was as if he was pleading, or even praying, or simply being patronizing. In my humble opinion, the body language O'Toole used (which no doubt he was trained to use or failed to listen to advice not to use) throughout the debate made him look, well, weak. Wishy-washy. Somewhat disingenuous. This is where the house cleaning needs to start. </p><p>Secondly, the campaign strategists ought to be fired. The failure to secure well-known and popular candidates in the Toronto area was disastrous. No disrespect intended, but people in Toronto and area seem to want candidates of national, or at least provincial prominence. A strong Toronto caucus they are sure would not be swept away for the regional interests of Quebec, the West or even the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals are famous for this recruiting. People like Ken Dryden or even most recently Adam van Koeverden. It's no secret to the rest of the country that Ontario, and especially Toronto, see themselves as the centre of the universe within Canada - they want representative that fulfil their egos accordingly. </p><p>Thirdly, fire the strategists who believe campaigning as Liberals is better than campaigning as Conservatives. When Conservatives campaign as Liberals the electorate vote in the real Liberals every time - even if they are getting wiser and not giving them majorities. Conservative strategists were given the mother load of ammunition to use against Trudeau while still being able to represent their base faithfully. For example, Trudeau's father (the recent Trudeau junior was selected as Liberal leader and PM) helped craft and institutionalize the Charter of Rights and Freedoms which championed the rights of the individual over those of the the majority. It has become a part of who we are. The covid panic has helped throw those rights on the ash heap of history until the Supreme Court of Canada rules on them. What an opportunity the Conservatives had to take the mantle of "Defenders of the Charter". The Liberals, especially the "Trudeau Liberals", would be without their moral high ground. That would then be the Conservatives high ground - for a long time. </p><p>Speaking of the Supreme Court, why did strategists not go after Trudeau in the debate with the following question: " Given the federal government has immediate access to the Supreme Court for constitutional references, why didn't the Liberals request a reference by the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of coerced vaccinations and "vaccine passports" before they endorsed and attacked people for not using them?" In order to gain the high ground you have to trap your enemy in the high questions. It paints them. It stains them. The perception lasts. In politics perception is reality. </p><p>The sad truth for the Conservative Party is it is not thinking and acting like a machine with a purpose. It is not capturing the high ground, or setting the ground for battle, because it seems frozen in fear that it might somehow alienate this group or that. You should not be arrogant about your beliefs, but you can be firm in them - and people respect that more than wishy-washy pandering. People become sickened by this type of "tell them anything" approach, which is why Trudeau has had two consecutive minorities. He lied the first time around about changing the first past-the-post system, amongst other things, and now people view him as wishy-washy too. However, he is cutting big cheques to a lot of groups, as we saw just before the election, and those groups want to see the cash continuing to flow. They aren't with Trudeau on any high ground, and the Conservatives failed to grab any high ground, so there was no need to change the status quo - and they didn't. </p><p>Looking ahead. Firstly, the Conservative Party needs to wrap its arms around Erin O'Toole and his family and give them the love. Rarely, if ever, have I witnessed a leader so genuinely disappointed in an election result as O'Toole displayed in his concession speech. Secondly, the party needs to realize that the Liberals have a lame duck leader now, and that in order to get rid of him the Liberals will have to firstly convince him to resign and hold a leadership race. That can be very destabilizing in a short period like the life of a minority government. It also opens up all kinds of potential negativity - internal or externally injected... Secondly, the Green Party will also be having a divisive leadership race, and to say their leader will go quietly into the night would be politically foolish. The NDP may also have some leadership challenges of their own. The Peoples Party, well, that appears to be completely reliant on Mr. Bernier's leadership. If the Conservative Party can restrain itself from an undisciplined assault on its leader, rally around the flag, and strategically prepare, it will be the party of order in the midst of instability.</p><p>Finally, Mr. O'Toole must change some things as well. He must drop the vision of the Conservative party. To say the Conservative Party was no longer the "party of your father" was foolish in the extreme. It was a direct insult to the majority of its base. Whoever gave him that line should be fired immediately, and sent directly to the Liberals. If it was him, well, change it or apply the same to himself. To gauge the damage of this tact simply refer back to the comments made by former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall on election night, wherein he not so subtly let the federal Conservative Party know that leaving traditional conservative values would more likely than not result in the base bolting to a new "Reform Party - like" scenario, and the subsequent death of the federal party - aka 2 seats after Mr. Mulroney's departure. I believe this analysis is spot on, and needs to be deeply understood by those that think they are smarter than every one else within the Party.</p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-31084477413563968412021-09-14T17:21:00.003-06:002021-09-14T17:21:37.549-06:00Trudeau is Inciting Hatred<p>Perhaps you were looking forward to the debate last week. Likely you were looking to measure the leaders up against each other during the debate. If you were like me, the one thing you were not expecting is for the Prime Minister of Canada to follow up the debate with vicious public attacks against identifiable groups in Canada. Canadian citizens. Your fellow Canadians. </p><p>Trudeau, in a voice coated in contempt, publicly incited hatred, and potentially violence, against Canadians who oppose his agenda on vaccines, gun control, and abortion. He flippantly referred to the large crowds that haunted him through the campaign as "anti-vaxxer hoards". He has no basis for this characterization. First of all they aren't hoards. They're protesters and they are protesting him. A hoard will have torches and burn him at the stake. Obviously that was not their intent, so his use of the term "hoard" was clearly an attempt to smear these protesters and marginalize their criticisms of him and his government. As though they were somehow beneath him - not an unusual attitude with him. </p><p>Secondly, what is an "anti-vaxxer"? Is that a person who won't get a covid shot, or is that a person who does not believe in any vaccinations? Or does that really matter. You see, in Canada we as citizens have the right to criticize and protest, yeas even in front of hospitals, as long as they are peaceful. That is guaranteed in the Charter his father helped create. Oh, and on that front, his father also helped to create Canada's hate speech laws.</p><p>In 1965, then Liberal Prime Minister Pearson, struck a special committee of seven individuals known as the Special Committee on Hate and Propaganda in Canada, commonly called the "Cohen Committee" after its chairman. Pierre Trudeau, then a professor at the University of Montreal, was a member of the committee. In 1966, the Committee filed its report to Parliament, which recommended legislation to combat hate speech. As a result, three new offences were added to the Canadian Criminal Code: advocating genocide; publicly inciting hatred in a way likely to lead to a breach of the peace; and willfully promoting hatred.</p><p>Fast forward to 2021, and Pierre Trudeau's son is directing hatred, ridicule and contempt toward Canadians who oppose his policies. He has poisoned the water much deeper than it was prior to his words. He is fanning the flames of hatred in a way that would make his father spin in his grave. Trudeau has resorted to the gutter of American divisionism. He is targeting Canadians for their beliefs and willfully inciting citizens against other citizens. Does the criminal code cover this kind of incitement to hatred? I'm not a lawyer, so I don't know. However, what we can be sure of is Trudeau's vicious marginalization of a section of our Canadian population will result in a deep, dark, and permanent stain - not just on him, but the true value of Canada in general.</p><p>After all, we cannot smugly sit on the sidelines anymore and thank God we are not in a country like the one below us, while our Prime Minister does the exact same practices that Donald Trump and Joe Biden (and their minions) did. Trudeau has thrown nitro on the fire for the sake of his pitiful self, and his agenda. In my 56 years of life as a Canadian, and observer of politics here for some 24 years, I can honestly say, with the exception of some local yocal halfwits in Newfoundland, that I have never witnessed such acts of hatred and deceit by a Canadian Prime Minister - or any Canadian politician for that matter. </p><p>No matter the result of this election, this incitement of hatred must cease immediately, and Mr. Trudeau must atone for his actions with the loss of his job. I am a Conservative, and as such I'm obviously pulling for Erin O'Toole, and therefore could be considered bias on the topic. However, I am not. There is a blog here that calls out Mr. O'Toole for sounding too much like Donald Trump during his battle for the Conservative Party leadership. Thankfully he moderated that tone after his victory. The bottom-line is that yesterday Erin O'Toole attacked Justin Trudeau personally, which he intended to reflect on Trudeau's governance. He did not attack Canadians. He attacked Trudeau. Trudeau didn't attack O'Toole. Trudeau attacked Canadians who disagree with him. </p><p>Whether you believe Trudeau committed hate crimes by attacking protesters with statements that were meant to attract hatred and contempt toward them or not, is academic in a sense. Trudeau has shown his true face for all to see. It should shock Canadians, but the Liberals have been busy marginalizing those who disagree with them for some time, so perhaps people have become numb to civility and rights. They do so at their own peril. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-41105382368602149142021-08-19T18:33:00.001-06:002021-08-19T18:33:13.413-06:00Good bye to Justin Trudeau<p> So, as the "fourth wave" of Covid crashes on the shores of Canada, as our state-floated economy teeters precariously on the edge of a monstrous inflationary bubble, as our sacrifice in Afghanistan is discarded on the winds of expediency, we enter an unwanted federal election. Make no mistake, the Trudeau Liberals are desperately trying to snatch a majority government and the question is why now?</p><p>Well, in one way, why not now? After all, a minority government never lasts a full term and this one has been going for awhile now. Trudeau is also rightly saying he wants a majority to steer the country through the upcoming days. Yet, most Canadians seem to be stumbling around in a Covid brain fog, afraid of being too close to their fellow peeps, and absolutely terrified of what has become known in CBC land as "the unvaccinated" (It's time to get rid of the CBC - its well outlived its glory years of Barbara Frum and Knolton Nash). The truth is that Canadians right now, like many other peoples in the world, are running around scared of their own shadow and uncertain where the world is heading.</p><p>The printing of money over the last two years in Canada and other nations has resulted in governments replacing the free market to inject roughly equal levels of lost GDP into the world economies. Inflation, which has ballooned the stock market beyond any rationality, is crushing people when buying anything from gas to groceries. Supply chains have been literally destroyed and the "just in time" economy has been brought to its knees. Tankers waiting for goods to haul have been stranded, with their crews, in many case for well over a year at sea. Things are not hunky dory. </p><p>So with that background Trudeau decides the polls are ripe for a majority government. Interestingly, the Nova Scotia Liberal government thought the same, and was just unceremoniously swept from power. It wasn't that per se that likely numbed the Libs, but the fact that such a result federally in the Maritimes spells the denial of a majority government and potentially an outright defeat. </p><p>The truth is Justin Trudeau is not Pierre Trudeau - other than their common love of massive spending and debt. Justin Trudeau has always been a snobby virtue signaler who famously corrected a woman for referring to "mankind" when he said she should say "people kind". After being roundly humiliated throughout the world he quickly said it was all a joke, but we know it wasn't. We also know Trudeau likes to refer to Canada as the first "post-national state". In other words, we have outlived our worth as a nation in less than 154 years - surely a record for any country in history... Not coincidentally, Trudeau has wrapped himself around all movements that undermine or intend to undermine our sovereignty - both as a people and a nation. </p><p>For example, Trudeau, like his dyed in the wool cousin Biden, has declared all federal civil servants must be vaccinated. He has previously said he intends to extend that to all federally regulated businesses. By doing so he fundamentally breeches the Charter of Rights and Freedoms that his father so desperately fought for. He throws individual rights into the trash can in the name of collective rights. Its the kind of thinking that resulted in Japanese-Canadians being thrown into concentration camps in Canada during World War II. It also resulted in former PM Brian Mulroney doing away with the War Measures Act so individual Canadians would no longer be subjected to the panic of the majority. Sound familiar? They thought they had good reasons back then to protect Canadians too... Should this issue land on the steps of the Supreme Court of Canada it likely won't survive long, but how many will have had their rights violated before that happens?</p><p>Then their is Trudeaus love for guys like Bill Gates, and the fellows down at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. These guys advocate world government by 2030. They infamously stated that by 2030 you will "own nothing and be happy". They also advocate for a merging of peoples physical entity with technology - yep cyborgs. If it weren't true and happening we would shake our heads at the "conspiratorial nature" of it. From their website, it only takes a few seconds to watch: <a href="https://youtu.be/4zUjsEaKbkM">World Economic Forum Video</a><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzhJh6gYs3d2-lv5yejyVRwOK3mfAm4C4jGCMTzgfGLcIkpOId85art6jyFwEpnksbgdFM1UCckqt-Gyw0ZNbKk46_t3xUqJP-vRYhwT-gW1eSpv2IcyPwwaRoHV3AlfbQpRJXxrh2Zmk/s716/GatesTrudeau.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="716" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzhJh6gYs3d2-lv5yejyVRwOK3mfAm4C4jGCMTzgfGLcIkpOId85art6jyFwEpnksbgdFM1UCckqt-Gyw0ZNbKk46_t3xUqJP-vRYhwT-gW1eSpv2IcyPwwaRoHV3AlfbQpRJXxrh2Zmk/w455-h240/GatesTrudeau.jpg" width="455" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFJb9UAP-hN0jH_gH_0pHljXJ8qHPbFsWfzOWuM-KbFQYgfKL9wHULj716iidDiGi7h1uLLu166EYRygxt4vpXcl7A_et43cO1ygLThDu_Jut-wZ_7EbYMas1cVF_RLTDDQyrGXoxGT8Y/s1080/Trudeau.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1080" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFJb9UAP-hN0jH_gH_0pHljXJ8qHPbFsWfzOWuM-KbFQYgfKL9wHULj716iidDiGi7h1uLLu166EYRygxt4vpXcl7A_et43cO1ygLThDu_Jut-wZ_7EbYMas1cVF_RLTDDQyrGXoxGT8Y/w468-h284/Trudeau.jpg" width="468" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The truth is that this election is truly about the future of Canada as a free country that respects the individual rights over that of the masses, that remains a sovereign nation (as sovereign as they get these days), and something that we can be proud of. It is a clash of visions. On the one hand is the crew that Trudeau represents - the elitist socialist class that is completely immersed in technology and view themselves quite arrogantly as the answer to mankind's next evolution as a species. On the other hand there are those that seek to preserve the sovereignty of the individual and, as much as possible, the state. Are there any political parties that represent the latter? Good question. We know that the Liberals, NDP and Greens fall fully behind the Trudeau World government types. The big question is where the Conservative Party stands.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Conservative Party traditionally represents the so called "right wing" of Canada - namely the West (minus parts of BC) and Ontario. These parts of the country generally respect rugged individualism and frown upon their rights being usurped. These parts of the country are also the economic engine of Canada. The areas not supporting Conservatives are traditionally most of the Maritimes, Quebec, and a small portion of coastal BC. Is it a coincidence these same areas are on the forefront of vaccine passports, Covid shut downs, and the like? No it's not. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The federal election in September will provide us a clear answer on whether Canada is till a nation of freedom loving people who respect the rights of the individual over those of the masses, and still hold hope of their country remaining strong and free. It is early, and they say a week in politics is a life time, but I'm feeling that Canadians are going to show Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals the door. There will be areas that strongly support his "woke" virtue signaling and globalist views, but their will be more that are tired of being told who they are, what they are, and how they will do it. Mr. O'Toole made a wise announcement yesterday that the Conservative Party will not force people to be vaccinated. It goes against the hysterical tide, but it is morally right. If O'Toole remains on a course of respecting our individual rights, our national sovereignty, the rules of law and economics, then the Tories will win this election - perhaps with majority. If he slips into the panic and mania group then, as the saying goes: "If you act like a Liberal people will vote in the real Liberals".</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-32412134829829181712021-07-05T14:06:00.003-06:002021-07-05T14:06:21.897-06:00Life, Liberty, and Covid<p>Covid19, the great pandemic of our generations - but is it really? For the last year and a half we have witnessed the closing of the world economy, the printing of money like no other time in our history prior to 1929, and most significantly the alienating of people from one another on a mass scale. Truly, we live in the times that Orwell warned us against in his monumental work 1984. People turning against each other, families torn apart by distance, and most significantly their differing perspectives on the "virus". However, is it really the lethality of Covid that is driving the hardened opinions on both sides, or is it something more?</p><p>When the virus first broke out in BC it was relatively innocuous. The first quarter of 2020 witnessed 780 cases which broke down as follows: 299 hospitalizations; 106 of those went into the ICU wards; and a total of 108 died (presumably a number who died did so before getting to the ICU). The numbers showed the virus almost non-existent in populations under sixty years old, and of those older than eighty years old men faired significantly worse for than women. To put that in perspective during 2020, 1716 people died from drug overdoses in British Columbia (BC), 11,100 died of cancer and double that number for heart and stroke deaths. In 2020 a total of 41,148 people died in BC. Another perspective: in the most recent heat wave in BC 719 people died in 5 days <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/heat-wave-719-deaths-1.6088793" target="_blank">read here</a> .</p><p>Those were the early days of the virus however, and the numbers now are more significant. From BC's population of 5.1 million people a total of 2.9 million tests have been administered, 147, 705 cases have been diagnosed, 145, 200 have recovered, and 1756 deaths have been reported. You can keep up to speed on the numbers <a href="http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data" target="_blank">here</a>. So in reality, the total numbers of Covid deaths in BC, for the last year and a half, numbered 50 more than the amount of people who overdosed on drugs in one year.</p><p>As all of us watched the evening news reports back in early 2020, and witnessed Chinese people falling dead in the streets, having the doors on their homes and apartment buildings wielded shut, and their streets sprayed with chemicals, we collectively broke a sigh of relief that it wasn't here in Canada. Then it came, and we panicked. Not everyone of course. In fact many people did not take it too seriously at all, and in the summer it vanished like the seasonal flu, in the fall it came back like the seasonal flu, and now again in the summer it is vanishing - like the seasonal flu. Yet, "waves" of pandemics have been common in our species history. </p><p>Take the Spanish Flu for example. A total of 2 million Canadians, from a population of 8 million (20%) were struck with that virus. Of the 2 million that were infected 50 thousand died or 2.5%. Of the total Canadian population that percentage was .06 or less than 1%. No vaccination was ever created for the virus and it ran its course. Fast forward to today and the numbers are: Canada's population 37.74 million people; 1,417,330 Covid cases (.04% of the population); and 26362 Covid related deaths (.0007% of the population). </p><p>The numbers are startling yet indisputable - the Spanish flu was much, much worse than Covid19. Yet, and this is the crux of this post, we have reacted to it as though it was one hundred times worse. Our governments have closed our economies, suspended our constitutional rights of freedom of assembly, freedom of mobility and also freedom of speech - to put it bluntly, they have suspended our freedoms. Here is another set of numbers for you. Sacred numbers. Numbers you are meant to remember and immortalize each year: 56,638 - the number of Canadian troops killed in World War I; 141,418 - the number of Canadian troops wounded in World War I; 189,224 - total Canadian casualties of World War I; 22,910 - the number of Canadian troops killed in World War II; 57,847 - the number of Canadian troops wounded in World War II; and 80,757 - the number of Canadian casualties of World War II. These numbers do not include the Korean War and other engagements like UN missions or Afghanistan. </p><p>The Canadians that died in battle did so for our freedom. Never forget that. They fought against regimes like the Nazis, and their equally despotic ancestors in the first war. They died freeing people from the suffocating grip of the Taliban. They died protecting people from the Communist Chinese, and on it goes. Their sacrifice was the price for our freedom. However, as the old veterans die off so does their spirit. </p><p>Today we have people that are willingly throwing those very freedoms on the funeral pyre with the promise that it will lead to better things for all. Today in Canada you cannot travel freely without hitting a military checkpoint-like border installation in New Brunswick, or requesting advanced permission to enter into one province from another. Today the government of Canada is openly advocating "vaccine passports" which will imprison people without them within Canada or even within their own province. We are at the place where you need internal travel documents just like Communist USSR and Nazi Germany. In a sense, the government of Canada, and its eager minions in the provincial governments, are sticking a star of David on each of us that won't take the vaccine. What's next? Vaccine ghettos where you must live if you won't take the vaccine. This may sound alarmist to you, but think about where we were as a society 2 years ago and where we are now.</p><p>Another eyry complication of Covid 19 is the division of opinion on how it should be dealt, or whether it even constitutes a real threat in a pandemic sense. After all, it has never happened in history before that people had to be bribed to take the vaccine with entries into lotteries as a reward for rolling the old sleeve up. These are things that should give most rational people pause to think. Yet it doesn't. People, families, friends are divided, but what is the division? The real essence of the division appears to be the belief that the rights of the majority trample those of the minority. It's an ancient problem, and one that was meant to be dealt with by the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Yet, the Charter has simply been ignored throughout, and those that think they know best for others are cramming their opinions and policies down the throats of those that feel differently.</p><p>Let's follow their logic to its end: Eating fast food is causing an epidemic of obesity, heart disease and death so we must ban all fast food and restaurants; driving your car could result in an accident that could injure or kill another; walking outside in the sun without sunscreen could cause skin cancer that requires hospital time, therefore denying another of hospital time, and so walking in the sun without sunscreen must be banned; and on it could go. We live in an era of unrivalled hatred, bigotry, judgement, self-righteousness, and complete disrespect for the opinion and freedom of others. These are the conditions that most totalitarian regimes came to power in throughout history. The well is being poisoned and that well represents the depth of the human kindness. </p><p>Whether you believe Covid 19 is more dangerous than a run of the mill virus or not, whether you believe it's all part of an inter-governmental conspiracy or not, whatever your thoughts and feelings on the matter are, just remember the only thing that differentiates us from the animals is our ability to be spiritual beings. Once the values of freedom, compassion and understanding have been thrown in the trashcan of convenience there is but one direction to go, and that is down. Once freedom that was paid for by the blood of generations is lost it will take the blood of future generations to restore - if at all. At this moment in history I encourage you to be the person you are and not the scared shell of yourself that is being impressed upon you. </p><p><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> BE THIS PERSON</span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAXk3ukcvtSBWlGLjOjPgPWVLGyPydGnNoC6CEGW2UjYn0Rz5IPjXkPveWF0siL3hNiReSiuUwQP6aPFLFdjipV4vJKlRMhV42hFNayZ-QfyyjbNXc84NuY9rT-93G70cyt_WVSIEAZJA/s1200/August-Landmesser.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAXk3ukcvtSBWlGLjOjPgPWVLGyPydGnNoC6CEGW2UjYn0Rz5IPjXkPveWF0siL3hNiReSiuUwQP6aPFLFdjipV4vJKlRMhV42hFNayZ-QfyyjbNXc84NuY9rT-93G70cyt_WVSIEAZJA/s320/August-Landmesser.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-5513226728269671752021-06-09T16:15:00.003-06:002021-06-09T16:15:33.836-06:00Modern Israel, and Old Promises<p> Israel has the right to exist as a nation. Let's just get that one off the table right away. Israel, or more accurately the descendants of Jacob, whom according to the Bible the Lord named "Israel", finally became a reality for the Jewish people in 1949 after a guerilla war for independence with the British Empire. Initially restricted to a tiny strip of land sandwiched between Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and its old friend/nemesis Egypt, Israel has slowly gained in territory after consecutive successful wars with their neighbors.</p><p>According to the Bible, the Lord promised Abraham (Abram at the time):</p><p><span> " On the same day the Lord made a covenant with Abram, saying: To your descendants I have given this <span> </span>land, from the river of Egypt to the great River Euphrates." (Book of Genesis)</span><br /></p><p><span>In other words, this:</span></p><p><br /><span><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSalfg5EJ5GzR_wQP2ACdncuyXmBdJXAANtolXaUqSNlyIzSI27n9CV-AFfYlIM9xbBz4tqv-ASdyor6QclyZWqebkxdB4CH4QLIIi2ZRDwkiXdQQaHjMj8POYcO1fPp0BmKS-0RzZBjw/s321/Israel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="321" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSalfg5EJ5GzR_wQP2ACdncuyXmBdJXAANtolXaUqSNlyIzSI27n9CV-AFfYlIM9xbBz4tqv-ASdyor6QclyZWqebkxdB4CH4QLIIi2ZRDwkiXdQQaHjMj8POYcO1fPp0BmKS-0RzZBjw/w477-h346/Israel.jpg" width="477" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Now many people refer to this Israel as an evil "Zionist" conspiracy to consume much of the Easter Mediterranean. However, that's not the truth. It's not a conspiracy at all when it has been laid out in the Bible for Christians to follow. There are a few problems with the concept though. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The very first problem that immediately comes to one's attention is the sheer vastness of the Biblical Israel. It would include areas of the Middle East that are currently populated by between 40-50 million people, and those people have been there for thousands of years in most cases. Prior to 1939 Jewish communities were thriving in Europe, although often persecuted to one degree or another. After World War Two, and the horror of the Holocaust, there were six million less Jewish people in the world which could have helped populate a "Biblical Israel". Today, modern Israel has a population of 8.7 million people, of which 21% are Arab and another 5% are "other". On the face of things, Hitler's massacre of the Jews of Europe tended to undermine the fulfilling of the Lord's promise to Abraham. Perhaps that was part of the purpose, but who can truly understand a hatred that deep. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another problem, and one that haunts Israel through out the world is the Israeli government's treatment of the Palestinians, and to a lesser extent its neighbors. Again, returning to the Bible, the Lord tells Moses that before taking the Jewish people out of Egypt he must gather up all the gold and silver from amongst the Jewish people and turn it over to the Pharos in order to ease the sting of his loss - in a sense compensation. It didn't work as the Pharos chased them down shortly afterward, but Moses had done his part. So even though Moses had vanquished the Pharos, and the Exodus was happening as a matter of fact, an ethical attempt to remove the "sting" was still necessary.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Unfortunately, modern Israel has simply lost this lesson in humbleness. In fact, it can be easily argued that the government of Israel has attacked with arrogance and impunity whomever it deems as a "threat to its security". Of course it is not alone in crying wolf. "National security", "terrorism", etc are phrases that are bounced around now by many governments seeking to restrict freedoms and impose their will upon other nations. The problem for the Israeli government is that it has always claimed the high ground. It also claims to have the "most moral" army in the world. Despite the boasts, the Israeli army has been absolutely brutal in dealing with dissent from the Palestinians and others. While on the one hand it has become far more wise in its dealings with Iran insofar as it strikes critical components of their nuclear regime while avoiding an Iraq-like conventional bombing of Iranian facilities, it blows its own feet off by "knee capping" hundreds of Palestinians who are simply protesting, albeit angrily.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In its dealing with the protesting Palestinians and even Israeli Arabs, the Israeli government has lost all sight of proportion, moderation and wisdom. It has committed multiple crimes against humanity during the Palestinian uprisings. It has in effect broken its covenant with the Lord:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span> </span><span> </span><span> Thou shalt not kill;</span><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span> </span><span> </span><span> Thou shalt love thy neighbor;</span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span> </span><span> </span><span> Thou shalt not covet thy neighbors house, </span><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span><span> </span><span> </span><span> or anything that is your neighbors.</span><br /></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span><span><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span><span>Now, inside Israel itself, the Orthodox Jewish people are in near full revolt of the non-Orthodox Jews. Issues such as compulsory military service or observance of the Sabbath, for example have sparked deep anger. Even the idea that Israel is a nation-state has provoked joint protests with Palestinians and Orthodox Jews walking side by side against conventional Israel. In other words, the Orthodox Jewish community appears to believe that modern Israel is breaking its covenant with the Lord as well.</span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span><span><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><span><span><span>I suppose in the end we are just simple people, and it isn't our place to judge a covenant made thousands of years before us between the Lord and Abraham. We can only guess and observe at whether it has been broken and what ramifications may come from that - if any. That being said, whether you agree or disagree with the approach Israel takes, we must not bring ourselves to the point of heaping hatred against them. Israel, or the "descendants of Jacob", have a place of prominence with the Lord. Whether you agree with that is irrelevant. If you don't believe me ask Nimrod...</span></span></span></span></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><br /></p>Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-73347105197241755692020-05-10T22:33:00.002-06:002020-05-10T22:33:34.987-06:00The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part 3 - Paddick, Risley and NalcorOn March 3, 2010, Doctor Andrew Furey announced (officially) that he was running to take the leadership of the provincial Liberal Party, and by ricochet the premiership of the province. The video of his announcement can be found <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=200530574531054&ref=watch_permalink">here</a> . He makes two very telling statements in his address:<br />
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at 8:49 on the tape:<br />
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"This change will not be just generational - it will be transformational" ; and<br />
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at 14:59:<br />
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"Our thriving technology sector has shown the world that geography means nothing when it comes to bold, new ways of thinking in areas such as ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ON-LINE SECURITY AND INNOVATION. Our brightest minds can be see as far as SILICONE VALLEY, the technology giants are taking notice."<br />
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I've capitalized the parts of his address that give a simple glimpse of the truth that Andrew Furey and his associates have in mind for the province, the country and the world. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to Furey's promise of a new politics of transparency. You can listen to the whole spiel in his speech at the link above. The ink had literally not dried on the Liberal Party's postponement of the race when Furey deleted every leadership/Liberal tweet from his account. Almost insignificant if it didn't hint at a lack of transparency lying just over the horizon.<br />
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In Parts 1 and 2 of this series I outlined a series of business relationships between the people behind Furey - Paddick, Myles and Risley (to a lesser extent). It's time now to focus on that threesome, and their friendship with Furey. As mentioned before, Myles recruited a young and ambitious Paddick and mentored him. Myles and Paddick then partnered with Risley. All of which is detailed <a href="https://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-coronation-of-andrew-furey-part-2.html">here</a> . It all gets a little tangly after that. Suffice it to say that Risley acted as the banker through his Clear Water Fine Foods company, while Paddick acted as the brains and Myles as the facilitator. They became a very successful team.<br />
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However, and it's a big however, Paddick entered the realm of public life when he "volunteered" to become Chair of the Board of Nalcor Energy, the province's energy crown corporation, in November, 2016. It just so happens that Paddick and Risley have another business together. A big business in fact. An electricity based business to be precise. Yes, the current head of Nalcor Energy's Board, a crown corporation, is run by a man who is, and always was, in a potential conflict of interest. You may be aware of a Salt Wire story last year on Paddick complaining he and the Board weren't being paid enough. The story put it like this:<br />
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"Brendan Paddick volunteered and was appointed chair of the Nalcor Energy Board of directors in 2016. He says he took the position largely because he felt a sense of patriotic duty."<br />
But is that true?<br />
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Paddick and Risley's venture into the electrical utility market started in 2014 according to their company's website, which you can find <a href="https://cormorantutility.com/history/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #0066cc; font-family: &quot; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 300; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: underline; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">here</a> . The website states:<br />
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"Mr. Paddick and Mr. Risley founded Cormorant and in 2014, purchased Power Tel and Power Traxx. 2 years later, the acquisition of Eptcon Limited and its fully owned subsidiary, One Line Engineering was finalized in 2016. With the addition of the two companies, our group is becoming one of the largest Ontario-based contractors in the power transmission and distribution industry, and the future synergies will allow us to become a significant player across entire Canada and North America"<br />
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(their English, not mine)<br />
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In reality, What is Cormorant Utility Services started out as 9099166 Canada Inc on November, 24, 2014. That corporation was amalgamated into another corporation on February 25, 2015 (one quarter later) named Power North Holdings Inc. On March 1, 2017, four months after Paddick "volunteered" to Chair Nalcor's board, Power North Holdings, and another Paddick/Risley company named Columbus Utility Services were amalgamated into what is now today Cormorant Utility Services Inc, Cormorant Atlantic Utility Services Inc. In addition to the four companies listed as controlled by Cormorant (above), it also has a controlling 50% interest in a Calgary-based electrical corporation named BowArk Energy Limited.<br />
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As of this time I cannot find any disclosure whatsoever of these interests by Paddick, Nalcor Energy, or the government. Their various press releases on appointments of Paddick can be found Here: Provincial Government <a href="https://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2016/nr/1129n04.aspx">here</a> ; and Nalcor <a href="https://nalcorenergy.com/about/board-of-directors/">here</a> . This failure to publicly disclose the energy/electricity holdings that Mr. Paddick does own creates a serious and palpable potential for conflict of interest. The question to be asked is why? Why don't the various bios and announcements include his experience as an owner in the electrical power/transmission industry? Would it not be common sense to show the man is just not a "cable guy" who got lucky, but also a man deeply experience in the power industry?<br />
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There are now some real questions here. Have any of Paddick's companies being doing business with Nalcor on Muskrat Falls or any other supply and services contracts. Given Paddick's business interests, is he steering Nalcor toward privatization? It is very suspicious that the President of Nalcor is a man who built and has holdings in a private energy corporation, and now the Chair of the Board has the same (albeit less). What are the Liberals planning to do with Nalcor and even the liquor corporation for that matter? After all, Wayne Myles, the Chairman of the Board of the Newfoundland Labrador Liquor Corporation also owns Terra Nova Foods Inc ( a large distributor in the province) and sits as Chairman of the Board of Distribution Group Inc (which he also owns).<br />
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That brings us back to Andrew Furey. For a man that claims to be bringing in a transformational change to the province, an administration based on "transparency" (can we not just say "the truth"), the facts say otherwise. Furey's biggest immediate, and most public backer (politically as well as to his charities) Paddick is most definitely not being transparent with the public. He is most definitely in a potential conflict of interest, which as the chair of the province's largest crown corporation is a big deal. Have you heard Andrew Furey talk about that? No you haven't. That may not be surprising from a man so concerned about health he starts mercy missions to Haiti, but also has owned a bar with two other gents in Harbour Main for decades - drinking not being the most healthy past time...<br />
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The next part to this series will involve Furey's involvement with artificial intelligence. Those Silicone Valley folks he talks up in his campaign address, Paddick, Myles, Risley and a few others will all feature in this. Their intricate web of companies have been established for years now, operating quietly on the sides. Now that Furey is attempting to become Premier of this province people must know exactly who they are selecting to lead them. This series is intended to do just that. They won't get in through the side door without scrutiny. The public deserves no less.<br />
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Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-12869518485094422432020-03-29T19:05:00.003-06:002020-03-29T19:05:50.374-06:00Economic Implosion for Newfoundland and LabradorIt's not news to anyone that Newfoundland and Labrador is in a complete financial collapse. 2003 rang in the era of reaping rewards from the oil industry for the province, but it wasn't long before a new industry, fracking, was revolutionizing the oil industry in the United States - a revolution that is still reverberating through international oil markets and alliances. In any case, the province had ten years to reap what it could before the fracking revolution really kicked off in 2013. The graph below helps show that era:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinBgyEdANELY9Kep-WFnZ4yDgsQG9cKpSmatMnl9-fD3DciMP6SjGEIlGWVndPFkAQWpKxNYbUtG1jf-l02Od6vfo27gImKiiQplTiQg2ngI0a3YMylX4NY2AJZbsJUf10DJnJOv7IWlc/s1600/EB-oil.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="276" data-original-width="396" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinBgyEdANELY9Kep-WFnZ4yDgsQG9cKpSmatMnl9-fD3DciMP6SjGEIlGWVndPFkAQWpKxNYbUtG1jf-l02Od6vfo27gImKiiQplTiQg2ngI0a3YMylX4NY2AJZbsJUf10DJnJOv7IWlc/s400/EB-oil.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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As you can see, from 1998 until 2007 the province's production was greater than the value created by those barrels. In 2008 production and value finally met, then in 2009-2010 production was again greater than value, but from 2011 until 2014 the province really reaped a massive windfall from its production. Oil's value vs production petered out after 2014 and remains that way to this day. The nuts and bolts of it is that out of 22 years of oil production, the province had only 5 years where we made money on oil by its pure value over simply producing as many barrels as possible.<br />
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All that seems a little academic now though. Upwards of $3 billion of that money the government managed to save in the bank was spent as its share of the Muskrat Falls project. The remainder was blown and no provincial rainy day fund was created. In fact, people like Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale often said that Muskrat Falls was that rainy day fund, and that just seems outright scary at this point. Nonetheless, given that oil's best days have come and gone, where are we left today?<br />
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Some facts: 18% of the budget is funded by oil revenue<br />
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49% of the budget is funded by taxpayers income tax, sales tax,<br />
booze and smokes revenue<br />
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4.3% of the budget is funded by corporate tax<br />
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18% of the budget is funded by the federal government<br />
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That's the nuts and bolts of it. The average working person in the province and oil (a distant second) pay most of the place's bills. A real eye opener should be the measly 4.3% corporations in the province contribute to the well being of the bottom line. Another, perhaps more ominous number is 20%. That's the amount that the province must pay on every dollar it makes to service its debt annually.<br />
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All these numbers would be enough on their own to paint a foreboding financial picture, but it gets worse - much worse. The key for the province is that 18% of oil revenue, because that revenue actually represents new wealth rather than simply recycled money. It allows the government to pay for the roughly 30% of the province's work force that it employs. Newfoundland and Labrador's 2019 budget pegged oil at $65 a barrel, but then revised it to $63. Either way, the province pretty much hit the market price and its budgeted revenue was for the most part in tact.<br />
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However, and its a huge however, once again international strategic events have blind sided the government's best laid plans. The advent of the US fracking revolution created a massive strategic shift in the control of international oil markets - specifically market share. Initially the US essentially satisfied its own oil needs, but as its fracking industry grew the US became an exporter of oil for the first time in history. It was no longer dependent on the Middle East for oil. Now, it can be easily argued, it has used its military and covert forces to knock other players out of the market to make room for its own product. Major oil producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Sudan and even Iraq have been partially or completely removed from the oil market place. Even Russia, until fracking the largest oil producer in the world, has been targeted by US sanctions and attempts to wrestle its market share from Europe.<br />
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On March 6, 2020, Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to start an oil war. The story goes that Saudi wanted Russia to sign off on a three year production agreement that would limit each country's oil production - even further than it had already been cut. Russia backed away from that so Saudi opened the valve and promised to flood the markets, bringing Russia to its knees in the process. Russia, especially Putin the judo master, likely saw an opportunity to starve US oil companies by killing their stock values and driving them out of the markets. While all this plays out, innocent bystanders like Canada have seen their own domestic oil industries crippled in the cross fire, and by ricochet, their budgets. While this province escaped 2019 with a break even oil projection of $63 a barrel, it won't be as lucky in 2020. The graph below gives a sense of oil prices for the first quarter of 2020:<br />
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Newfoundland and Labrador's stated budget price for oil this year is $65 a barrel (US). As you can see on the graph above, oil was already falling from that point by mid January. Much of the decrease can be attributed to the corona virus outbreak in China, which resulted in oil demand from the world's largest oil importer drying up. The price continued to get worse as things got worse in China, then globally. Then, on March 6, the bottom fell right out as Russia and the Saudis threw in the towel. The market has been trying to find its bottom ever since.<br />
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The cost for the province is potentially catastrophic. The average price of oil for the first three months of this year was $51.73 per barrel (US). If oil recovers to a consistent level around $50.00 a barrel the hit to the treasury will be about $300 million. Unfortunately, as bad as that would be, there is no reason to expect either Saudi or Russia will pull back in this market share battle. If oil settles at $30.00 a barrel for the rest of fiscal 2020, the treasury will lose $600 million dollars. For perspective, the province budgeted oil revenue of $1.09 billion, in other words the government will receive a mere $400 million or about 40% of what it had budgeted for. If, as many analysts have suggested, the price of oil drops to $25 a barrel and remains there, the hit to Newfoundland and Labrador's budget will be a striking $670 million leaving the province with a mere $300 million to fund 18% of its budget for fiscal 2020. It must be remembered that Russian President Putin has stated publicly Russia can withstand a $25 per barrel price for at least 6 years, and lower if necessary.<br />
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Now lets turn the page on oil for a moment, and focus on the Coronavirus pandemic's effect on the economy, and therefore budget. The most conservative projections in Canada place the country in a three month shut down. Many others are putting it at four to five months - likely dependent on how bad the pandemic ravages the US. Those will impact the budget:<br />
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Scenario One:<br />
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The Newfoundland economy shuts down for 3 months, and takes 2 months to regain normalcy. The government will lose in every category of its budgeted revenue. Everything from mining royalties to personal income taxes, and all areas in between. The potential direct cost is in the vicinity of $809 million (cdn), or a 13% loss in budgeted revenue for 2020. Once combine with a $30 per barrel price for oil, the combined loss to the budget will be about 1.5 billion (CDN). Some of that will be slightly offset by the fact Newfoundland and Labrador receives its oil funds based on US dollars - but not a lot. Given the province's budget for 2020 had already pegged a deficit of $1.1 billion, a new deficit projection of $2.6 billion would not be out of the question.<br />
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Scenario Two:<br />
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span>
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: black; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">The Newfoundland economy shuts down for 4 months, and takes 2 months to regain normalcy. The budgetary losses will be in the vicinity of $869 million, or a 14% budget loss. The combined loss, oil revenue included, is about $1.6 billion, or a total budgetary deficit of $2.7 billion.</span><br />
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And so it goes.<br />
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None of these figures address business losses, or the compensation they may receive for those losses, or what form that compensation will take (ie: loan vs grant), or even whether or not the compensation will be taxable. It does not address the economic costs of closing the tourist industry, or potentially the fishing/processing industry. They don't reflect the costs in interest and financing of shutting down the completion of the Muskrat Falls project. It goes on and on. Bottom line, for a place that was already expecting a terrible financial year, with a preexisting $1.1 billion deficit projection, an oil war and pandemic are especially devastating. Newfoundland and Labrador risks a complete financial collapse from these turbulent times and, perhaps even more deadly for the province, a new 1980's ish exodus of people escaping a doomed ship - so to speak.<br />
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It all sounds very negative, but people need to know the truth of what they and their families are facing. Premier Ball said Newfoundland and Labrador is facing a financial crisis once the pandemic crisis is over. He wasn't kidding folks. Reality bites and this will be one hell of a bite. God guard thee Newfoundland and Labrador.<br />
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<br />Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-84524331435163257752020-03-15T12:37:00.001-06:002020-03-15T12:37:48.969-06:00The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part 2, Brendan Paddick1986 was a defining year in the province's cable history. Prior to 1986 there were a number of scattered cable companies all over the island of Newfoundland. Everyone is familiar with former Premier Danny Williams involvement in those early days, but there were others. On May 13, 1986 the CTRC brought down its decision on which one of four cable companies would control cable vision in rural Newfoundland. Danny Williams' company Eastern Cable was in the bidding. So were Shellbird Cable (formerly Western Cablevision of Corner Brook), Central Cable and N1 Cable. HPhil Keeping, N1's founder, and personal mentor to twenty something Paddick, succeeded in convincing the CRTC to grant his company the coveted licence.<br />
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Shortly after that fateful decision, Williams' Atlantic Cable bought all the losing companies except N1. A young Brendan Paddick, fresh from MUN's commerce program, was hired by Keeping to sell N1 to the collection of towns and villages granted to him by the CTRC. During an interview with Atlantic Magazine, Paddick opined on the old days, but his tale also tells us something about him:<br />
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"As a salesman for N1, whose business model was to build a rural cable TV network where there wasn't one, I knocked on the doors of literally every home in 151 towns. That was thousands of doors. I knowm people used to look at me and say, 'Well, now, look there's Paddick with a business degree no less, going door-to-door, couldn't find a real job.' But, you know what? In my first year oof doing that, I made about $150,000. Of course, I kept it very quiet..."<br />
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The camera pans back to the young door-knocker and his homemaker customer. Remember, he tells her, to stick her yellow copy of the cable work order in the window facing the road. That way, when the technician rolls by later, he'll know which house he's supposed to service. After all, he laughs, street numbers in these rural towns can be hard to find.<br />
'The next thing I knew,' he says, 'is I'd have kids stopping me in the street saying, Mom wants one of those yellow things for her window. It had nothing to do with cable. It was pure peer pressure. Before I knew it, there was this groundswell. They all wanted yellow slips for their windows."<br />
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What these statements say, at least to this author, is that Paddick is an aggressive, motivated, manipulative, and ruthlessly determined individual whose primary focus is making money and using the basest means to do it. As he says:"It had nothing to do with cable. It was pure peer pressure," and "Of course, I kept it very quiet". Remember those comments for later.<br />
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Despite the aggressive expansion of its business, and re-branding to Regional Communications, the company was having great difficulty in remaining in business. It was not meeting all its debt obligations, and Paddick managed to talk the Board into allowing him to become the company's new president when the original gave his notice.<br />
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Then, in 1991, a truly fortuitous moment happened in Paddick's life - he met Wayne Myles. At the time Paddick was running his own company named Research Associates, a market research company. Myles approached Paddick to join the Board of the Victorian Order of Nurses (Myles Chaired the Board - More on Myles the Rotarian in the next part of this series). Once Paddick agreed. Myles became involved in his life helping him to negotiate a concession package, and restructure of the debt of Regional Communications. This allowed for the rebranding of Regional Communications to Persona Communications - as most people are familiar with it. Persona continued on with varying degrees of success until it went public in 1998. After the IPO Paddick became President of Persona.<br />
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Myles describes it:<br />
"When he became CEO, we did a number of complex deals for them...in my firm which was then known as Benson Myles. So we did work for Persona across Canada and established a fairly deep relationship with him and his team."<br />
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In 2001, Myles hooked up with John Risley (much more on him in next parts), owner of ClearWater Seafoods. At the time, Risley was attempting to take control of FPI, but the Newfoundland government (Brian Tobin) would not give control of more than 15% of the company to any non-Newfoundland entity. The solution was to place Paddick as a Board member. Risley was then successful, on his second attempt, to take over FPI. After that time Myles, Risley and Paddick collaborated in each others' business:" Risley as an investor in Persona; Paddick as a board member of the Risley-founded Clearwater Seafoods public company; and Myles as legal strategist for both."<br />
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In 2002, as President of Persona, Paddick purchased a 25% share in Cable Bahamas from his old mentor Phil Keeping. As the Globe and mail noted, in 2002, Paddick did quite well by his new acquisition:<br />
"A walking tour through Persona's management proxy circular and assorted financial statements presents a few curious tourist attractions. Here's one: Brendan Paddick, Persona president, is the happy recipient of a $1.1 million (US), interest free loan. The money, according to the proxy, was used "to finance the purchase of his new personal residence. And where is the new residence? In the Bahamas, lucky him."<br />
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By 2003 Paddick faced a shareholders revolt over his Caribbean wanderings - they accused him of not being focused on Persona's core operations. So, in 2004, Paddick agreed to sell Persona to a group of wealth funds fronted by Dean MacDonald. The wealth fund that purchased Persona could not, however, own holdings outside of North America, so Persona's interest in Cable Bahama became immediately available. Paddick scrambled to buy it before anyone else moved in. He personally did not have the money to purchase it, but his friend John Risley did. As Risley put it:<br />
"We had decided what our launch had to be. We originally thought it (Cable Bahamas) carried a price tag of US $35 million. At a dinner in Toronto, it became apparent that it was going to be US $50 million, and I went home angry and disappointed. Brendan told it was 50 or we weren't going to get going, so I agreed."<br />
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According to Paddick:<br />
"Risley actually wired US $50 million to my personal chequing account in the Bahamas without a piece of paper, a demand note or a lawyer involved. We closed the deal after regulatory approvals in February 2005 and the rest is history."<br />
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By that same year, despite a seven year rule for citizenship in Barbados, Paddick was a Barbados citizen. Also in that year, Paddick and Risley had run out of their own money after buying the Cable Company of Trinidad and Tobago. Hankering back to his early door-to-door, dogged, pavement-walking days, Paddick and Risley tried to raise funds in New York, but failed. As providence would have it, or just good intelligence, billionaire Michael Lee-Chin and Michael Dell (Dell Computer) came to their rescue. They paid $130 million for a sub sea cable network called New World Networks, which became Columbus Networks. Over the years of purchasing, amalgamating, and selling cable companies in the Caribbean, Paddick established 30 corporations through a law firm owned by one Andrew V Thornhill in Barbados. The disclosure of these tax haven accounts was made as part of the giant leak of tax haven accounts collectively known as the "Paradise Papers" to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. For your information, the 30 accounts and their details can be read here:<br />
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<a href="https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=paddick&e=&commit=Search">https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=paddick&e=&commit=Search</a><br />
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It is unclear whether or not any of Paddick's businesses or income have paid any taxes in Canada, and specifically Newfoundland and Labrador, in ages. He remains a citizen of Barbados, and his income fund remains there too.<br />
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In November, 2016, Brendan Paddick was named Chair of Nalcor Energy, despite having no background in utilities or mega projects, other than being the "cable guy".<br />
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Exactly six months later, Wayne Myles, lawyer, chief connector with a large empire of his own, was named as Chair of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liquor Corporation.<br />
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The next part in this series will focus on John Risley, Wayne Myles, Mark Dobbin with a few others, and their ties to Doctor Andrew Furey. The alarming agenda behind the coronation of Andrew Furey.<br />
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<br />Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-84718570409585121542020-03-08T13:17:00.000-06:002020-03-08T14:07:41.245-06:00The Coronation of Andrew Furey - Part OneDoctor Andrew Furey, son of Senator Furey (Chair of the Senate of Canada), Surgeon, Philanthropist, humanitarian, and family man. Have I missed anything? This is how Furey is being sold to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, and all of it is true to one degree or another. However, and it's the biggest however I can give you, that is only one side of Andrew Furey. The other side of Furey, the one that is driving his coronation as Liberal leader and therefore Premier, couldn't be more different. That side of Furey is all business, friends in business, and back room wheeling and dealing. The two seem impossible to reconcile on the face of it, but facts don't lie.<br />
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To understand the backroom deal made to bring Furey in as Premier you have to understand that in the realm of the backroom. or the darker side of politics shall we say, there exists a schedule. When a person such as Furey "suddenly" emerges onto the scene, and has this sudden swell of support, you need to understand that it is not spontaneous. It involves years of grooming and positioning by handlers and fixers. Anyone remotely close to Furey's position has both - normally close to their inner circle. They also have financial backers to pay for organizing it all, and to fix those problems that come up along the way. Furey has these folks, and in the following parts to this expose I will be laying them out in detail for the people of the province.<br />
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Another important fact to remember is that the soil which has fed the political and business roots of Furey's life has been supplied by his father - Senator George Furey. In itself, there is nothing wrong with that, and all of us might hope our Dad would do the same for us. However, in the context of the rise of Andrew Furey, and the business interests that he has surrounded himself with, it is important to note that his father has been in the general area, so to speak.<br />
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All of that generally brings us to the backroom dealings to bring Furey into the Premiership of the province. Without getting into too much detail in this part of the expose, suffice it to say several clues were put out there to show people what happened. The first thing you need to understand is that backroom deals appointing Premier are across party lines - ie: in this case the backroom of the PC Party has decided to throw Ches Crosby on the proverbial pitchfork, and the PCs will be relegated to opposition with a caretaker leader - as per the schedule.<br />
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The first clue a move was under foot, from the general public's perspective, was the decision by the Liberal government not to proceed with a public inquiry into the Humber Valley Paving scandal. Frank Coleman, who was at the time owner of the company, and anointed leader of the PC's (Premier in waiting actually), was a long-time business associate of not only Andrew Furey's father, but also Brendan Paddick, John Risley, Peter Woodward, Rex Anthony, and Danny Williams. Other major business people with links to Andrew Furey, and or his father, include people such as Paul Antle and especially Mark Dobbin (as you will see later). Here's a little taste of what's to come on this:<br />
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The Fish Merchants Battle For the PC Leadership<br />
Rock Solid Politics, March 30, 2014,<br />
<a href="https://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-fish-merchants-battle-for-pc.html">https://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-fish-merchants-battle-for-pc.html</a><br />
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<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">Coleman was educated as an economist. He was the senior economist for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (before there was a Nalcor), and had a private consulting business known as Atlantic Consulting Economists Ltd. Strangely, he wrote a study in 1993 on the economic feasibility of the Trans Labrador Highway - which his company is now paving. But there are many more twists along this road.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">It goes back to the fishery, strangely enough. Back to the days of FPI. FPI was a company formed by the provincial government from the assets of a number of failed fishing companies in 1984. Then, in 1987 under Premier Peckford, FPI was privatized. Previous to the privatization, a number of fishing corporations that were competitors to FPI put forward proposals to take it over, but the government wouldn't relax the rule of a maximum 15% ownership per entity. The predecessor to Iceland Group PLC was one of them. The Risley Group (Clear Water) was another. The proposals were refused by the government, and John Risely blamed the Williams government for meddling in the deal, and killing it. </span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/government-meddling-hastened-fpi-s-demise-risley-1.652838" style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #888888; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-decoration-line: none;">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/government-meddling-hastened-fpi-s-demise-risley-1.652838</a><br />
<br style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">In any case, Bill Barry of the Barry Group (the other PC leadership candidate) thought he had secured a deal to buy FPI's Newfoundland assets - so much so that it was made public: </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/fpi-reaches-deal-to-sell-local-operations/article676850/" style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #888888; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-decoration-line: none;">http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/fpi-reaches-deal-to-sell-local-operations/article676850/</a><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;"> </span><br />
<br style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">But, the Williams' government didn't go with Mr. Barry. Instead, the assets were sold off to Ocean Choice International which was owned by Ches Penney of the Penney Group. National media were so perplexed by Penney's move that they speculated he could be the front man for an Icelandic company: </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/who-is-this-guy-and-whys-he-investing-in-fish/article1077331/" style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #888888; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-decoration-line: none;">http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/who-is-this-guy-and-whys-he-investing-in-fish/article1077331/</a><br />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">The other successful bidder was High Liner Foods Inc of Nova Scotia - which bought a plant and FPI's US marketing arm.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">What was left of FPI became FP Resources Ltd. (FPR) FPR's membership is a who's who of the Newfoundland and Labrador business establishment : Peter Woodward (Woodward Group); Rex Anthony (Anthony Group); Frank Coleman (Coleman Group); and previous members John Crosby and George Furey. International players are: Iceland Group PLC; Glitner Banki hf (recently stripped of its bank status in Iceland and in the midst of serious issues); Eric Barratt (Sanford Limited New Zealand); and Randy Bishop (Whitecap International Seafood Exporters). John Risely and his Risely Group of Nova Scotia round out the list.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px;" />
<span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">FP Resources took its cash from the fishery and began investing in the Caribbean. Specifically it began investing in a company called CFFI Venture (Barbados) Inc. (CFFI). CFFI in turn invested in Columbus Communications Ltd, a privately owned telecommunications company that provides retail, cable and internet services to Jamaica, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Grenada, and broadband connectivity to Caribbean countries. Columbus is run by Newfoundlander Brendan Paddick. He was also the CEO of Persona Communications, which some of you may remember being at the centre of a $15 million contract controversy (Williams' government gave Persona an untendered $15 million contract to deliver cable services to Labrador). </span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tax-dollars-boosted-persona-for-sale-reid-says-1.678159" style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #888888; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-decoration-line: none;">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tax-dollars-boosted-persona-for-sale-reid-says-1.678159</a> "<br />
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By dropping the judicial/public inquiry into Coleman and his company, the Liberals signaled a deal had been done. Within a week Dwight Ball resigned as Premier. The media in the province is spinning Ball's departure as an uprising within the caucus against Ball. The truth is that certain cabinet ministers within the caucus, acting in conjunction (more or less orders) with the backroom, deliberately undermined Ball to make room for Furey. Furthermore, there is evidence the federal Liberal party is up to its neck in the Furey coronation (later in parts to come). Suffice it to say that the political/business establishment is behind the "sudden rise" of Andrew Furey.<br />
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It is also evident that once Furey is made leader of the Liberal Party (officially), and Premier (officially), that he will call a summer election. The first clue for this is the temporary spending bill just passed in the House of Assembly that funds the government until June. The second clue is that Furey will be an un-elected Premier, which has never happened in the province's history, and therefore its a good excuse to call an election so he can "have a mandate, blah, blah...". You get the idea.<br />
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Other signs to look for:<br />
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1. The media, especially the CBC, spinning stories that make Ches Crosbie look bad or ineffectual;<br />
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2. Media, or Liberal spinners (yes, like you Lori Ann Oates), stressing the need for a new economy in the province based on technology rather than resources (as if the place doesn't need every single cent it can squeeze from any rock available...)<br />
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3. Key words like "transformational"and "generational" and "fundamental" "change" coming from the media, business, and/or previously mentioned shills. These words are a clue to what Furey and his business backers/friends have in store for the province. They're trying to get people thinking along those lines before they bring in their plans;<br />
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4. A heavy emphasis on the state of the economy and the desperate need to act - to create fear in the public, and condition them for saving solution; and<br />
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4. Marginalizing of critics publicly.<br />
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These are some of the things you can expect. There may well be others for the same purpose. The important thing for you to know, as a Newfoundlander and Labradorean, is that you are being played yet again by the business elite of the province - as disgusting as that is. Muskrat Falls made some in the business community very rich. They took what little money you had, and then they mortgaged you for generations, but they got their piece. Now they are about to do it again. This time it will involve technology. The "transformation" that Furey referred to in his opening address has to do with digitizing the province, artificial intelligence, and selling people's genetic information - most notably to an American corporation. All the players mentioned above have a hand in it. Most have formed corporations to profit from it. It's happening exactly the same way Muskrat Falls happened: an arranged political coronation that has at its core people with vested interests that will cost the people of the province whatever they might have left.<br />
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The parts coming up in this expose will be the detailed breakdown of the business people involved in this "transformation", their relationship to Andrew/George Furey, and the detailed breakdown of the corporations and organizations they have established over the last decade to get ready for this moment. You've been warned. Be vigilant. Be informed. Let others know the truth. If you question whether I'm telling you the truth ask yourself this: "Was he telling us the truth about Muskrat Falls?"<br />
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<br />Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6271311976551643552.post-43581223826828321242019-05-12T10:19:00.001-06:002019-05-12T10:19:33.939-06:00Newfoundland and Labrador needs CrosbyNewfoundland is in a state. It had a very brief period of oil fueled hysteria, and then, as they say in Newfoundland: "the bottom fell outa her". It was sad really. Of course, the collapse of oil prices didn't just single out Newfoundland for financial mayhem - see Alberta, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc. The difference really is that these other places had great oil prices for a long period before the collapse, and were able to better sustain a price collapse. So, with a series of very poor financial decisions (see Muskrat Falls as an example), the collapse of the oil industry, and the corruption that runs rampant in the province, Newfoundland is in desperate need of a change in governing - that change could be Ches Crosbie.<br />
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Ches Crosbie is a very thoughtful, very successful lawyer from St. John's (okay he's a townie and a lawyer … so we'll have to look past that). His family is one of the most influential and wealthy families in Newfoundland (okay, we'll have to look past that as well). The difference with Ches Crosbie is that he is not a flashy egotist. That is a major difference - more than you might think. He is a reasoned man, and that is exactly what Newfoundland needs at this time.<br />
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Because Newfoundland is a place of very concentrated wealth, and very wide spread poverty, the provincial government there is used as a wealth distribution vehicle rather than an instrument of considered decisions. It is incredibly knee-jerking. The population is very susceptible to patronage, and panics when it thinks it may be out of favour for that patronage - in other words there are so few crumbs they will bare knuckle fight for them. That's the way they've been played for hundreds of years by the small establishment there, and the same remains true today.<br />
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Current premier, Liberal Dwight Ball, has the very appearance of the slick used car salesman from the movie "Fargo". Slicked up hair, and cowboy boots with his suits. His approach has been shockingly similar. He promised 3 inquiries on incidents that were very important to the people but failed to deliver on two: the Coleman/Humber Valley Paving scandal; and the Burton Winters tragedy (ironically both tied to Labrador). He promised to review construction of the infamous Muskrat Falls hydro dam. He didn't. He promised to manage the project better, and at last count it was 120% over budget - which puts those corrupt African dam projects to shame at their measly 65% average. He promised a democratic reform program, and just like Trudeau federally he broke it without shame. The people have every reason to reject the Liberal Party in this election.<br />
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So who should they vote to replace the disappointing Liberals? Well the NDP and NL Alliance rump parties are not an option. Newfoundland only has 40 seats up for grabs, but neither party could muster even that tiny number of candidates - not even close at less then 30%. They are not an option, and quite frankly they are a waste of a vote - with all due respect to the men and women who were brave enough to put their names forward to carry the respective banners. In addition, and perhaps even more importantly, the federal Liberals are on their way out after the callosal SNC Lavalin scandal. Newfoundland likes to have a close relationship with the feds when it needs money (like now), and it's hard to see that relationship happening with a Conservative government in Otta, and a Ball government in St. John's. That leaves the PC Party.<br />
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However, the PC Party was really the initial author of Newfoundland's current misfortune. As a governing party during the ten years or so that Newfoundland enjoyed oil prosperity the party was infused with corruption and cronyism. It spent every single cent of oil money it made, every single cent of regular taxation funds it raised, and then borrowed massively on top of that - a tradition the Liberals carried on with when they took over. The real question remains did the PC Party learn its lesson? Did the PC Party reform itself internally? The answer may be Ches Crosbie.<br />
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Crosbie, after all, is not a man of unlimited charisma. He is not the fire breathing dragon of say a Danny Williams. He is not the smooth, smiley Tobin or Ball type. He is not even the force of nature type like his father was. He is in fact his own man. A man who appears to value reason and sober thought over flash and dash. He is an intelligent man in his own right. This is exactly the kind of man Newfoundland needs at the helm to navigate the seas of financial disasters facing Newfoundland now - and in the future. The only question remaining is whether or not the PC Party has learned its lesson, or is it simply waiting at the trough to take its turn. Given the choice, and keeping in mind the very poor governance record of the Liberals, the balance leans toward Crosbie and the PCs. Whatever the election this week results in, it is very unlikely to be a major win for either side. A small majority is likely. That being said, and if the polls are right, Crosbie will be the benefactor of that choice.<br />
Brad Cabanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08957343946915171802noreply@blogger.com0