Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the
round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're
not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify
them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change
things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the
crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

Steve Jobs
US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 - 2011)

Friday, April 29, 2022

Ukraine - Master of its own Demise

 Two months into the invasion of Ukraine a few things have become obvious. The first and foremost thing to surface in the Ukraine conflict is the absolutely shameless abuse of propaganda by the Ukrainian government. Whether it was the defiant slaughter of thirteen Ukrainian Marines on Snake Island, which ended up being the surrender of almost 100 Ukrainian paratroopers and no slaughter, in reality, or the shelling of a train station in Donetsk by a Tocha missile, which Ukraine blamed on Russia, but which was subsequently discovered to have a Ukrainian serial number, the Ukrainian government has been shameless and irresponsible in its rhetoric. Before the war started it similarly provoked the super power on its border - as if it has a death wish. When Ukraine points the finger at those responsible for the war, or at those it accuses of not doing enough for it, there are a thousand fingers pointing back at it.

Let's face the obvious: Ukraine has been used by our western governments as a tool to, as they now admit, to weaken Russia. This has been on going for over a decade. It is a matter of fact that the West was involved in the overthrow of Ukraine's President in 2014. A president who was duly elected - primarily from the Russian speaking portions of Ukraine in the east and south of the country. It's a matter of record that the overthrow was caused by the Ukrainian President's refusal to follow a path to join the EU. It is a historical truth the the Ukrainian military shelled, bombed, and otherwise attacked separatists when they declared independence from Ukraine as a result of the overthrow of their president - this despite the UN's declaration of the principle to self-determination for people and regions around the world that seek it. The West refused to criticize Ukraine's military assault on its own citizens, and immediately recognized the new head of Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian government signed two accords (Minsk) in an effort to end the civil war in the Donbass. However, it failed to live up to the requirements of the agreements by refusing to grant the Donbass special status as it had agreed to do. It did not live up to the requirements that foreign troops would not be present in the Donbass or Ukraine. The list goes on. In reality, the Ukrainian government said whatever it needed to say to get itself off the hook at the moment, and this unfortunately has become a trait that has damned the country of Ukraine, and threatens to set off a major world conflict.

In the days leading up to the Russian "special military operation" (in reality an invasion with specific political and territorial goals), Ukraine and the West which backed and trained its military, had a chance to seriously address the concerns of Russia, but instead they brushed Russia off as if it were a third-rate power living in the past. This approach, this view, has been catastrophic for Ukraine and may become catastrophic for the world. It was four years ago, in October of 2018, when Russian President Putin warned the world "Russians will go to heaven as martyrs ... The aggressor (the West) will have to understand that retaliation is inevitable, that it will be destroyed and that we, as victims of aggression, as martyrs, will go to heaven. They will simply die because they won't even have time to repent." Source here He was referring to the then new hypersonic weapons they had developed, and which today have become a reality on the Ukrainian battle field.

Despite all of these terrible consequences, Ukraine, and our western governments, have simply sought to further antagonize, and by doing so increased the severity of the conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in particularly, has acted so recklessly with his country's existence that it begs the question: does he want to seek Ukraine as a country taken off the map? In the days before the invasion he refused to agree to live up to Ukraine's signature on the Minsk Agreement. His Western partners, namely France, Germany and the UK, who were all guarantors of the agreement along with Russia, did absolutely nothing to force Ukraine and Zelensky to live up to their agreement. Zelensky not only refused to implement the Minsk Agreement, but went further stating Ukraine was going to join NATO. These are not actions of a person or government seeking to avoid conflict and tragedy for their country and people. These are actions of a minor power recklessly punching over its weight, undoubtably reassured by other governments of support should Russia act.

It is of course noble to state that a sovereign country can do as it wishes, but everyone understands the reality is different. For example, if Canada were to enter a military alliance with China, and have Chinese military personnel training and arming the Canadian army, does anyone seriously believe the US would simply stand by and say if Canada wants to be in alliance that is their sovereign right and we support it? No, that would never happen. Simply look at the diplomatic roar over tiny Solomon Islands entering a security pact with China as an example. Funny enough, the US intervened in the Freedom Convoy protests in Canada simply because their car manufacturers could not receive parts and had to close a few plants temporarily. The position that Ukraine, or any other country, can do whatever it likes as a sovereign nation has never been true throughout history, and it makes a mockery of the intelligence of those who suggest it can. 

Nevertheless, Zelensky lectured the world that Ukraine was the victim of an unprovoked attack. Not just that, but it was a victim of  NATO lacking courage, the EU lacking courage, and pretty much everyone who disagreed with its position was a Russian sympathizer. There was no room for intelligent, level headed people to have a different opinion. Much like Prime Minister Trudeau's public statements that people protesting for freedom in Canada held "unacceptable views". 

The problem with Zelensky, and the Ukrainian government in general, is that it has become like the "boy who called wolf". It has made so many false claims that one simply can not believe what it says anymore. Take for example its constant claims that Russia has suffered massive casualties thus far. Perhaps it has, but Ukraine has never released any of its own casualty numbers. It claims to have defeated Russia and destroyed much of Russia's equipment, yet it is the one screaming for tanks, artillery and anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine had plenty of these arms before the war, so the natural conclusion is Russia has destroyed much of it and they need theirs replaced. Ukraine has condemned Russia in every other day UN Security Council meetings for attacking civilians and civilian buildings, yet it armed its own civilians and its troops took up positions in civilian buildings as matter of course. 

All of this leads to one unmistakable conclusion - the Ukrainian government cannot be trusted. Not that Russia is an angel. Nor is the US or any other Western power, and if you believe they are you are very naive. They all have "interest" that reign well above their principles. Ukraine is no different in that regard. It is not the innocent victim it portrays itself. Its government has been willing to sacrifice its own people unnecessarily. That shouldn't be surprise to anyone that has followed the conflict since 2014. A government that is willing to fire artillery and bomb its own citizens for wanting a different future is not a government that minds wasting the lives and dreams of its population.     





 

Friday, April 1, 2022

Why Russia is winning the War in Ukraine

 



In order to know whether or not Russia is winning its war in Ukraine one has to figure out what the goal of the war is. Afterall, regardless of casualties and loss of equipment and resources, the primary objective of any conflict is its original mission. The best way to think of Russian strategy in Ukraine is to view it as one of those famous Russian egg dolls that have successively smaller dolls within it. 

Russia's stated goal in Ukraine is to de-nazify, de-militarize, and annex territory from Ukraine. The word annex in this case means the formal recognition by Ukraine of Russia's annexation of Crimea, and the recognition of the Donbass as an independent republic - which would presumably vote to join Russia. Those are the stated goals. The next obvious goal, which is not stated, is the annexation of the Kherson region to protect Crimea's water supply and form a land bridge to Crimea. The next much less obvious goal would be the Russian occupation and annexation of all Eastern Ukraine - including Odessa. This would make what's left of Ukraine an impoverished, landlocked no-mans land between Europe and Russia. All of these stated and non-stated goals are either obvious or can be logically deducted from Russia's military movements.

The smallest, and least visible goal,  the smallest of the dolls, is the most important of them all - kicking off the "newest world order". To understand this one must focus on the thought and strategy of Vladimir Putin. Putin is a judo master, and as such the philosophy of Judo rules his strategic thought. The primary principle of Judo is to use the opponents own force or weight to defeat him. Putin's use of this strategy is evident on the domestic and international stages. In this case, Putin has used NATO's (US) strategy to contain Russia (and China), with its push to Russia's borders, as momentum to "Judo throw it" if you will. The encroachment on Russia's traditional buffer zones, being those states on Russia's borders, has given Putin the reasoning needed to convince the Russian people that he must act. Remember the "we have no where to retreat" speech. 

At this point, Putin has grabbed the proverbial collar of the West - being the starting of the Ukrainian war. The US and Europe continued to push Putin with large weapon shipments to Ukraine, and massive sanction packages aimed at destroying the Russian economy. The force of these sanctions was meant to throw Russia to the ground, but instead Putin used that very force against his opponent. He began with steps to stop bank runs in Russia, shut down the Russian stock exchange to avoid a similar run, and essentially planted his feat firmly on the ground. Then, with European countries threatening to ban all Russian exports, including oil and natural gas, Putin completed his throw and threw the US and Europe to the proverbial ground - rubble only payment for natural gas and all other exports from Russia. That was the point of the war in Ukraine - the death of the US hegemony and by necessity the US dollar. 

Previous to the war in Ukraine Russia had made agreements with the Chinese to use yuan and rubbles for internal trade. Since the war, Russia has been making agreements with India, Pakistan, Iran and others to conduct trade in national currencies - not the US dollar. From hereon in the largest markets in the world, China and India, will not need US dollars for trade in natural resources, and that means the US dollar has lost at least half its worth in real terms. Even Saudi Arabia, with a staggering 70% of its oil exported to Asia, is realizing that it must pick a side in this global divide. It has now begun negotiating with China to sell the oil in Yuan - not US dollars. This breaks an agreement it has has since the 1970s with the US to sell its oil in US dollars exclusively. The need for US dollars has propelled the dollar to the most sought after and valuable currency in the world, and that in turn has propelled the US economy. All that is about to change in a very radical way. 

The take away here is that, while on the face of it the war in Ukraine is being described and thought of as a proxy war between Russia and NATO, in reality it is meant to be the catalyst for a bi-polar world - one on the rise (Eurasia) and one on the decline (Atlantia). A massive shift propelled by the elites of the world - in all nations. A deliberate move to consolidate the world's many countries into two camps. One often hears the phrase "divide and conquer". You can properly think of this as the age of "consolidate and conquer". It's the phase before the move to one world government. As US President recently said: "There will be a New World Order, and America must lead it". This is what we are truly witnessing today. Not Russia bad Ukraine good. Not China and India must pick a side. Not any of the rhetoric designed to baffle and indoctrinate the ordinary person. So, if you consider that Putin, and by extension Russia, are playing their roles in the creation of this "New World Order", then you know that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine.