Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the
round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're
not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify
them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change
things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the
crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

Steve Jobs
US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 - 2011)

Monday, February 8, 2016

The Phoney War

We are living at a time of phoney war - at least that's my theory. A phoney war is a period where war-like moves are made, but the major powers of the day are not yet engaged in actual fighting. The most recent example of this was Hitler's moves in Europe before 1939 - like the Czech and Slovak Republics, etc. Acts that really ought to be considered acts of war, but for "pragmatic" reasons the world over looked them in hopes they would satisfy the aggressor. Those moves are happening today.

Consider Turkey for a moment. Turkey is at once fighting the Kurds on its own territory, and in northern Iraq, supporting ISIS and others against the Kurds in Syria. The problem in the geo-strategic sense is that Turkey is asserting its own perceived interest at the expense of world peace. It is breaking international law by fighting a "hybrid war" against Syria, and is on the verge of making that a very real conventional war in Syria - along with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is making similar moves in Yemen. In the Yemen case, Saudi has already invaded with conventional forces so there was not much pretense there of a phoney war.

In the big picture, however, today we are in a world scale phoney war. For some time I have thought on the reasoning the United States has "betrayed" its long time partner Saudi Arabia and allowed fracking to undermine the world price of oil. Purely examining today's events might leave you scratching your head. The US breaks its long time agreement with the Saudis, world control of oil for using US dollars in its purchase and sale. However, take a step outside the box, look at the many places of near war in the rest of the world, and a very real strategic move may be afoot.

My theory is this: the US is weaning itself off Saudi oil, and putting itself in a position of self-sufficiency, to insulate itself against a Middle east war that will see Saudi, Iraq and Iran lose the ability to export oil. Really its the only sensible conclusion to come to. The transition period was the last five years. Mass fracking in the US has resulted in over 4800 capped oil wells. Over production of oil has resulted in mass storage of oil reserves. Together, the result is a stockpile of strategic oil in the US, but also in Russia. The two big foes are insulating themselves against oil shortages at the same time in this phony war.

If that theory holds true, then I would expect a Middle East war to break out really at any time. Certainly the flash points are Iraq and Syria. Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and some other minor allies will make a move on Sunni Iraq and northern Syria at the same time leaving rival Iran to address two fronts at once. Clearly that will bring in the Americans and Russians - although I would bank on the Russians being there in large numbers first. In any case, the damage to the oil fields of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia would be on a massive scale. Given the technology and weapons possessed by both sides, massive damage to oil infrastructure is only a logical result.

It's funny how today's phoney war eerily points toward the biblical prophecies of the Battle of Armageddon. It's something that nobody wants to think is possible, but the signs seem to be growing all the time. It's as if we have a little self-destruct mechanism and are programming ourselves toward this fate. Of course you could always argue it's the will of God as expressed in the Bible. We have a hard time seeing it from that point of view, because we can't believe God would wish that upon us. But, God is God for a reason. We have human minds which are but a spec in the big picture. That being said, I hope I'm wrong in my observations, and analysis. Nobody should want or thirst over a phoney war. They always lead to the bigger one.  

1 comment:

  1. If we renamed Moby Dick the book as 'The Great Game' and the white whale as the continent of Asia..and then asked ourselves if Captain Ahab (USA) would really accept a compromise, a 'partnership' after all these centuries?
    The answer obviously is 'No', only 'All or nothing'.

    Abraham Lincoln. " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation
    of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."
    Thanks for your blog!


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