Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the
round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're
not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify
them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change
things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the
crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

Steve Jobs
US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 - 2011)

Sunday, March 15, 2015

World Economy War One

If World War One was the first time humanity witnessed the brutal, inhumane destruction of a generation by the tools of war, then what we are witnessing today is the first of a potentially similar world economic war. Now, many would argue that the Cold War was a world-scale economic war that communism lost vs. capitalism. However, that would be a simplification of both the means and the ends. For example, my take on the end of the Cold War is that Russia and China merely conducted a strategic withdrawl to regroup, approach the issue in an economic way as opposed to military-type way, to end up where we are today.

Whatever your take on that might be, the bottom line is the world is dividing into two economic camps - one dominated by the US and one dominated by a Russia/China alliance. Economically, the Russo/Sino alliance has all the momentum and strategic strength to win this match hands down. I covered the bones of that here and here . Today it seems all these things are coming to a head - rapidly. It appears the US is not prepared to allow the new Eurasia alliance to peacefully transform the capitalist system to its needs and benefit. In other words, the US is not prepared to peacefully allow others to play its own game on it. That, simply put, sums it up.

Two years ago I had a close chat with my brother on these very events now transpiring. At the time he asked what I saw the outcome being of a trade war like we have today. I said that depended mostly on the Americans. Would they play nice or go "cowboy"? If they went cowboy,  I explained, then prepare for war. It seems that's where we are at. Up until now most of the American actions have been by proxy. That is to say, the US has covertly, and overtly funded and armed certain groups, in certain regions, to take on certain governments so as to reduce Eurasian regional influence. Probably the most notorious example at the moment is the Syrian war, and the resulting birth of ISIS. It strongly resembles the CIA funded war in Afghanistan, and the subsequent birth of Al-Qaeda. Both were attempts to undermine/topple Russian interests covertly. Both resulted in the birth of organized Islamic groups dedicated to even harsher economic and cultural separation of the region from US influence. Ditto transpiring in Libya, portions of Africa, etc.

The game became very real when the US decided to intervene in a somewhat similar fashion in Ukraine. Having overthrown the democratically elected, although unpopular, president of Ukraine, the US quickly stepped in to organize everything from its government to its economic bail-out. In other words, the US  took on Ukraine as a client state on the very border of Russia. Hence the whole "cowboy" thing. A very dangerous and irresponsible "in-your-face" move by the US that opened Pandora's Box. The Russians responded, as you knew they would, and so it goes. The major difference here is the US are no longer playing games with some two-bit dictator far a flung. No, this time they have gone directly to the fence of their enemy. A nuclear armed enemy. An enemy that is as advanced in every way as the US. One of two major players in the economic alliance that aims to reduce US economic power, and thus influence, throughout the world. No more dancing around proxies. The powers to be are in each other's face.

So where do we go from here. It seems fairly obvious the US, or any western country's population has failed to cotton on to where they are being led. Not a clue. Barely any coverage in the media, except that this terrorist or that terrorist is a threat to this or that nation's security. It's as if men in black pajamas and cloaked women in similarly coloured get ups will be throwing themselves, wave after wave, onto the shores of western countries. Any reference to Russia is cloaked in similar paranoia and fear. China is currently being only nibbled at on the fringes, because frankly the West can't afford to upset China financially. So, in effect, people in the West are sleepwalking into certain financial disaster, and possibly worse. A scenario that has repeated itself through out history, and the result has always been the same - tragedy for the human race.

The truth is, we can only project what might be the result of an all out world economic war. We can only surmise, if we dare to, what catastrophic effects would be heaped on our families, our communities, and our countries. Why can't we see it clearer? The easy answer is: we have never witnessed it before like this. We've seen depressions, and recessions. However, we've never seen complete destruction of economic systems. That's something that is hard to wrap the mind around for most. The best analogy perhaps is the First World War.  Slaughter had never happened before on this scale.The men left for the front lines in a hurry in 1914. Up for the challenge and afraid to miss the big show. They found out all too quickly that the massive slaughter that occurred on those front lines was not any kind of great struggle for a higher cause. What they found was humanity turning on itself in a global slaughter of a generation. Four years later, after unimaginable horror and destruction, the phrase was "never again". Eleven years later mankind did it all over again. When that one was over we had a new phrase: " Lest we Forget". Sometimes ... often times, it seems that our desire to dominate each other is never fully satisfied.


  1. If the US response is indeed cowboy, then the window of opportunity is now before the new Russian submarine fleet deploys with its missiles, before the deployment of the Russian 5th gen airforce, before the new silk road, before the gas lines to China make the US naval pivot to the SW Pacific irrelevant for controlling China.

    How profoundly interesting that you post this at this time. Putin (and much of the Russian high command) has been absent for some 10 days now - with a "head cold". Meanwhile the hugely significant re-routing of top UK and US military info through Ukraine and Russia - including UK nuclear launch codes ( goes unnoticed in the media. It is reported that "The (Russian)Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reporting today that the Federation is now in a “state of war” thus bringing to full activation President Putin’s “Dead Hand” nuclear order issued 29 July 2014 to The Strategic Missile Forces (SMF)."

    According to this report, the full activation of the much feared “Dead Hand” nuclear option was authorized under President Putin’s previous order due to the discovery that the nuclear forces of the United Kingdom (UK) were preparing a first strike against military and civilian targets located in the Federation.

    If true, First Strike readiness is a huge and complicated step. The UK would not do so alone, nor if some incident were not anticipated. Was the 'incident' planned for the Putin Kadyrov meeting to sign the Eurasian economic Union agreements? It would have been quite the statement if it was. That it never happened as Putin got "sick" is perhaps divine - or 'intelligent'! So Putin was sick - for ten days. The same ten days during which western military info was massively hacked. A hack that showed whatever the plot was, it was tied to a Much Bigger Plot. Was the plan to use Ukraine as the source of a missile that would decapitate Russian leadership, with a full first strike positioned and ready if they retaliated? The mix of the Nato ships in the Black Sea look like a set of sitting ducks - ducks designed to get buy in from all the reluctant partners to a potential Nato strike.

    There is something that tells me we just dodged a bullet... perhaps the most comic piece in it all is the confusion over whether Russia did aggressively encounter the Nato fleet (with its nominal Canadian ship) in the Black sea. Perhaps the Canadian minister let something slip that was supposed to stay silent - i mean really, what other time does Nato weigh in to counter such political statements?

    any thoughts?

  2. Well, I do find it odd the Canadian government and NATO are not on the same page over simple incidents like this. I tend to believe the Canadian government in this case. Our defence minister has repeatedly been quite assertive about the matter - including great detail. I have almost no faith in the NATO alliance as an instrument of clarity.

  3. Without getting into details of the circumstances that caused the Second World War it’s possible to see certain similarity of countries and events.
    The US, being located far from the European Continent, still uses its political and financial influence interferes into the European political affairs. The US won a big prize after the Second World War in the form of the significant economic benefit from the War, having earned a lot on the military orders and capital inflow and became the leading country on the background of the ruined European economics. As a result, on the basis of the Bretton-Woods agreement, the US became the economic model setter having introduced USD as the international currency thus getting access to the other countries’ finances via the Monitory Fund and the World Bank.
    Germany is the country that, maybe, from the Bismarck’s times, has considered establishing control over the Eastern European areas to be its main objective. That’s why it wasn’t by chance that the Hitler’s Germany set the goal of partial extermination and enslavement of the Slavonic people, i.e. first of all of Ukrainians, Belarusians and Russians.
    Russia is the country that didn’t participate in the world capitals sharing out, but it had paid a considerably higher price than the others in the Second World War. 20 mln of its citizens had been killed; its economy in the European territory part had been totally destroyed by Germans.
    Nowadays it’s not hard to see the alliance of the US and Germany in action. What is it and what is it for? I don’t know for sure. But like 70 years ago Ukrainians and Russians are paying with their lives. The USA and Germany have really succeeded in making Russians and Ukrainians kill each other. Why? Being Russian I can give my personal impression that might answer this question. A global war with Russia is needed. The USA, being the beneficiary of all the World Wars, needs a war in Europe, because it could provide the American companies with the significant profit as well as release the American Financial system from the tension. And as according to the experience of the Second World War such a war is possible only with Russia, our country must become the main enemy of all the “civilized” Western countries.
    People in the world are again demonstrating weakness of will and consciousness, and again somebody is leading them (like sheep) to a slaughter. I really feel pity for Ukrainian people, who have totally lost their national image and independence having become the slaves of the American masters. But it’s also evident for me that the US is unable to adequately estimate the situation. The American Politicians don’t have experience of ruling a country with massive destructions and human losses on its territory. However, taking under consideration the modern military technologies they might need it. We, Russians, have such experience. That’s why, unlike the Americans, we have a very important advantage – we are able to estimate the situation and the price of the possible consequences.
    I guess, there are a lot of people worried by Vladimir Putin’s words about Russia having been ready to use the nuclear weapons during the events in the Crimea. That’s true. But this statement as well as the preceding 10-days Putin’s disappearance is Politics of the high level which is beyond the American analysts’ patterns. Russia has again found itself in isolation. Russians are again under the threat of being killed, and we don’t have any other way to make people wake up and see that a common great disaster is coming.


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