Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the
round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're
not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify
them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change
things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the
crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

Steve Jobs
US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 - 2011)

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Predictions for 2015 - Not a Pretty Picture

Last year my New Years predictions were for a "tumultuous, history making year". So this year I thought: "Well b'y, better be more specific."

For Newfoundland:

1. Halt of the Muskrat Falls project in the Courts.

2. Resignations of  Ed Martin and Gilbert Bennet, and a large scale purging at Nalcor.

3. A Liberal government so large that it has to appoint its own members as Opposition ala Frank McKenna.

4. Large scale cuts to the civil service, and project spending.

5. A huge downturn in the economy reflected in high unemployment numbers and falling real estate prices.

6. A serious downturn in Labrador's mining, exploration, and economy as a whole.

7. Wide spread anger throughout the land.

For Canada:

1. A new Liberal dominated minority government, caused by drops of support in Ontario and BC for the Conservatives, and the NDP maintaining a strong hold in Quebec. Canadians won't trust that Trudeau is ready to run the show without the strong hand of Mulcair to keep him in check.

2. Declines of oil markets in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and here are too large to offset export gains in Ontario and Quebec, and the country enters recession.

3. Northern sovereignty is challenged by Russia, and to a lesser extent others.

4. Aboriginal rights and militancy increase dramatically over living conditions and resources.

5. Political unrest and economic decline make Canada a very unstable place to be, but then the world mirrors it.

For the World:

1. Russia and China escalate the stakes in their economic war with the US. They create formal international structures, based on the Chinese Yuan, to reduce US influence in the developing world.

2. Turkey leaves the NATO/ US sphere of influence and moves toward the Eurasian Alliance - fueled by disgust over Israeli treatment of the Palestinians and greater economic prospects with Russia and China.

3. The war in Ukraine escalates and Russia intervenes militarily. The Ukrainian government falls.

4. Europe enters a period of deflation and recession, that evolves into depression.

5. Argentina attempts to retake the Falkland Islands.

6. The United Kingdom begins the process of leaving the EU.

7. Investors in the US stock market panic over events in Europe and loss of trade markets, sell off, and cause the largest single crash of the the stock market since the 1920's.

All in all, not a very happy or positive outlook on the year 2015. Sorry for that. It's probably just as well that none of us have a crystal ball and can see the future, but, for what it's worth, this is my attempt. Seems to me that we can't avoid the economic realities that continue to unfold around us. The best we can do is try and protect our own. On the upside, every collision of history has always resulted in a better result down the line, so keep that in mind as we weather the storm that will be 2015.


  1. ...

    At West Point, on 28 May 2014: “Russia’s aggression toward former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe, while China’s economic rise and military reach worries its neighbors. From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with us. … So the United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century passed [properly spelled ‘past,’ but this is his text] and it will be true for the century to come.” He wasn’t only saying that the graduating cadets would be facing an enemy that consists of America’s economic competitors and so these soldiers would fight and kill and die for America’s aristocracy and should accept and honor such a commitment, but that Russia’s resistance to subordination to America’s aristocracy and to America’s actual aggression is itself “aggression” that they must wage war against.

    On p. 234 of Ron Suskind’s 2011 book Confidence Men, Obama tells assembled megabank CEOs in a private meeting with them (as was leaked): “My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks. [The public are here analogized to the KKK; and the banksters, whose looted-by-themselves-from-the-inside banks are being bailed out by the U.S. taxpaying public, are instead being portrayed as the Blacks whom the KKK are trying to lynch] … I want to help. … I’m not out there to go after you. I’m protecting you [against the public].”

    Obama does not represent the American public. He has fooled the American public, just as his predecessor did. If the only way to preserve the international dominance of America’s aristocracy will be a nuclear attack, he will probably do it. He represents fascist, pro-aristocratic and anti-public, values. He sees the public as the enemy.

    Think of Tojo, Hirohito, Hitler, and other fascists and nazis; and then consider Obama and Bush in that light, and ask yourself: What other intelligent and well-informed way is there to understand Obama, except in this type of historical context?

    Retaining the illusions (which are spread by agents of the aristocracy) could turn out to be extremely dangerous. The direction in which things are actually heading is horrific.>

  2. What makes you predict an Argentine move on the Falklands this year?

    Far as I know, they've massively de-funded their military since then and are even less capable of projecting power today than they were back then.


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